General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

beggars_bush

Aegir wrote: »

it has been acknowledged and apologised for. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50576508

According to Johnson and Cleverly a full investigation will start by the end of the year https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50707997

will they publish that with the Russian interference investigation??

LuckyLloyd

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

I like that - as much as it is suppressed and obfuscated - we never have to wait long for a reminder of what Brexit is really about: racism and xenophobia.

droidus

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Biggest car crash interview going on right now with Paul Scully on bbc politics. Shown the widely discussed picture of the child sleeping on a hospital floor in Yorkshire, he actually tries to blame it on labour. Later on, while he is being eviscerated on tory health investment plans, he actually tries to steer the discussion back to the sick child.

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Letwin_Larry

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I like that - as much as it is suppressed and obfuscated - we never have to wait long for a reminder of what Brexit is really about: racism and xenophobia.

i dont see what the big deal is tbh.
he is taking back control of UK borders, as was promised back in 2016.

actually it will be refreshing to see a poloitcal party actually do what they said they would, or perhaps people have become so accustomed to politicians not delivering on promises, they are actually shocked when it happens!

FrancieBrady

droidus wrote: »

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Bizarre stuff.

Joe_ Public

droidus wrote: »

Better than Johnson's handling of the story.

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1204018593656180736

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Barring a sudden and extreme event, it's all over now. The only question is the size of the Tory majority.

The UK electorate have - yet again - spoken about their preference for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister.

Polling from BMG Research put Johnson at 39% and Corbyn languishing behind on 32%.

Given the many follies of Johnson, it's quite astonishing how Corbyn is not clearly ahead. The reason for that is simple: the UK has no appetite for far-left economics that harks back to the 1960s.

People talk about Brexit as if those of us who support it are somehow nostalgic for the British imperialist past. That couldn't be further from the truth. Brexit is about moving the country forward, not backwards to some immoral imperialist agenda.

What Jeremy Corbyn wants to do is to bring the country forward to the 1960s; a socialist anachronism that will never garner widespread support in the United Kingdom.

quokula

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats what we needed to see on the nhs issue from the start. I thought the whole thing of labour looking for the smoking gun in terms of privitisation missed the mark. Its an emotive issue and all people need is to believe they cant trust tories and to see them floundering trying to defend cuts. It could be too late now.

Yeah just focussing on the current state of the NHS would probably be a much more effective tactic than the risk of future privatisation. I can speak from direct experience and it's already on its knees from the last 9 years of Tory rule.

4068ac1elhodqr

'Wan from the LibDems was on the screens and radio channels earlier, complete non-stop car-crash.
Very awkward, babbling and keep saying 'you know' at the end of every sentance (clutching for a glimmer of audience synthesis).
More or less a spent force again, for now and for years to come.

Odds benchmark is at 17.5 seats (+/-), of which expect a negative value at market price of @1.83.
Also hinders Labour coalitions, with transfers elsewhere.

Professor Moriarty

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

'Wan from the LibDems was on the screens and radio channels earlier, complete non-stop car-crash.
Very awkward, babbling and keep saying 'you know' at the end of every sentance (clutching for a glimmer of audience synthesis).
More or less a spent force again, for now and for years to come.

Odds benchmark is at 17.5 seats (+/-), of which expect a negative value at market price of @1.83.
Also hinders Labour coalitions, with transfers elsewhere.

Transfers?

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Barring a sudden and extreme event, it's all over now. The only question is the size of the Tory majority.

Dont know really, possibly. John Curtice for one is still expressing caution, telling the bbc yesterday:

****
"The Conservatives are certainly still in pole position, but not necessarily so far ahead that they are guaranteed a majority yet.”

On tactical voting he added: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ in the next new days."
*******

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Joe_ Public

quokula wrote: »

Yeah just focussing on the current state of the NHS would probably be a much more effective tactic than the risk of future privatisation. I can speak from direct experience and it's already on its knees from the last 9 years of Tory rule.

Yes, can you imagine how other side would be playing it if shoe was on other foot? I bet we would be seeing pics of that sick child near every polling booth in marginal constituencies come thursday. I'm not saying I'd want labour to descend to those kind of cynical stunts, but those individual human stories should have formed the backbone of the campaign, not the threat of something that people cant actually see happening in front of their eyes.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this doesn't send shivers down spines in the UK in the week of an election then I think the next decade is going to be a tough one for any moderate UKer.
It must be incredibly scary and upsetting for so many to hear this. It is the kind of thing you might expect to be 'uncovered' or said in private not brazenly spouted in the week of a poll.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969

"You don't belong here, you're just a guest in this country (and don't you forget it), you'll never be part of this nation".......that's what he is effectively saying.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK electorate have - yet again - spoken about their preference for Boris Johnson to be the Prime Minister.

Polling from BMG Research put Johnson at 39% and Corbyn languishing behind on 32%.

Given the many follies of Johnson, it's quite astonishing how Corbyn is not clearly ahead. The reason for that is simple: the UK has no appetite for far-left economics that harks back to the 1960s.

People talk about Brexit as if those of us who support it are somehow nostalgic for the British imperialist past. That couldn't be further from the truth. Brexit is about moving the country forward, not backwards to some immoral imperialist agenda.

What Jeremy Corbyn wants to do is to bring the country forward to the 1960s; a socialist anachronism that will never garner widespread support in the United Kingdom.

If you think that 1) there is a simple reason, and 2) that the one you stated is it then you have no appreciation of what is going on in the UK at the moment.

As JC pointed out, even if the Labour manifesto was carried out in full, the spend would still be way behind many other countries in the EU. So very far from what you seem to have been hoodwinked into believing it would be.

KindOfIrish

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i dont see what the big deal is tbh.
he is taking back control of UK borders, as was promised back in 2016.

actually it will be refreshing to see a poloitcal party actually do what they said they would, or perhaps people have become so accustomed to politicians not delivering on promises, they are actually shocked when it happens!

BBC: "In the year to June 2019, an estimated 212,000 more people moved to the UK than left. Within that total, the number of EU citizens arriving was its lowest level since 2003. At the same time, net migration from the rest of the world has continued to go up and now stands at an estimated 229,000".
Taking back control my ..rs!:eek:

LeinsterDub

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Maybe , maybe not . It looks a lot of them are in the wrong area. https://twitter.com/owenboswarva/status/1204041813352423427

Strazdas

KindOfIrish wrote: »

BBC: "In the year to June 2019, an estimated 212,000 more people moved to the UK than left. Within that total, the number of EU citizens arriving was its lowest level since 2003. At the same time, net migration from the rest of the world has continued to go up and now stands at an estimated 229,000".
Taking back control my ..rs!:eek:

Vote Leave claimed EU migration to the UK would be at the rate of 300k+ a year until 2030 at least, adding about 4.5m to the British population.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Vote Leave claimed EU migration to the UK would be at the rate of 300k+ a year until 2030 at least, adding about 4.5m to the British population.

If Remain had won, I have no doubt that the UK would be considered an even more desirable place to settle and countless millions over the next decade would have flowed into the country.

Thank goodness Remain lost.

Speaking of which, it's good to see a Prime Minister articulating strong borders; the need to reduce EU migration and how the UK should not be considered "an extension" of another country. Prime Minister Johnson is wearing Nigel Farage's political clothes now.

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Maybe , maybe not . It looks a lot of them are in the wrong area. https://twitter.com/owenboswarva/status/1204041813352423427

Well, they're first time voters as opposed to undecideds. I dont know whether 3m is entirely accurate for undecideds but it's one I've seen quoted in a couple of places.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dont know really, possibly. John Curtice for one is still expressing caution, telling the bbc yesterday:

****
"The Conservatives are certainly still in pole position, but not necessarily so far ahead that they are guaranteed a majority yet.”

On tactical voting he added: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ in the next new days."
*******

There are still an estimated 3m undecided votes out there so something to play for i think.

Dunno. Can't see it myself. Straw in the wind, but bookies' odds on a Tory majority gone from 1/3 to 1/4 in past 24 hours. Last ten polls in the past week have the Tories averaging 43%. Fingers crossed that Curtice's theory comes true but it's looking very gloomy.

hometruths

Deleted User wrote: »

If Remain had won, I have no doubt that the UK would be considered an even more desirable place to settle and countless millions over the next decade would have flowed into the country.

Thank goodness Remain lost.

Speaking of which, it's good to see a Prime Minister articulating strong borders; the need to reduce EU migration and how the UK should not be considered "an extension" of another country. Prime Minister Johnson is wearing Nigel Farage's political clothes now.

If the Brits are attempting to reduce immigration by making their country a less desirable place to settle they are doing a damn good job!

Joe_ Public

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno. Can't see it myself. Straw in the wind, but bookies' odds on a Tory majority gone from 1/3 to 1/4 in past 24 hours. Last ten polls in the past week have the Tories averaging 43%. Fingers crossed that Curtice's theory comes true but it's looking very gloomy.

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

In that mrp poll, i think there were more than 100 constituencies estimated to be within 5% margins which is quite tight when you factor margin of error into it. That was too far out anyway to be a reliable guide.

Also, 2015 - polls on average understated tory lead by 6%, 2 years ago it was overstated on average by 5%.

If they're wrong this time is it more likely to overstate or understate the tory lead? I'd say the former is more likely.

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, dont blame you. Curtice could just be being the canny old operator, he'll be happy if his polls are proved right, but if wrong again he can at least point back and say, well i did warn you, didnt I?

Its just clinging to hope at this point - tactical voting, undecideds, new regs etc. All of these would have to go big for labour to swing it enough, its a big ask.

you're probably correct, but i would use the analogy of a footie match.
you can have favourites, strong favourites and hot favourites, but on the day anything can (and often does) happen.

there are a number of small marginals, where a small shift will have a significant impact, and like those key battles on the football pitch, win those and you can turn the game on its' head.

the only provisio i would add, is Lab need practically ALL of these key battles to go their way. unlikely but it can happen

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's like predicting the weather. All we really have are the best tools modern technology can offer and those are currently imperfect. Curtice is quite open about this.

Ultimately though, it just doesn't make sense that Labour get the electoral spanking that YouGov's MRP predicted. May had ambiguity on her side whereas Johnson does not. Labour in 2017 were on 35% in the latest polls and ended up on 40%. The polls are certainly a useful indicator but all they really are is educated guesses.

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May literally disappeared from view. Johnson, an infinitely more charismatic figure, has been in the media every day.

From the moment the 2017 election was called, Labour rose steadily in the polls from 25% to 40% - an increase of 15%. In that time, the Tories dropped from 47% to 43%. A drop of 4%

This time around, Labour have gone from an average of 28%, when the election was called, to an average of 33% - an increase of 5%. At the same time, the Tories have gone from an average of 38% to an average of 43% - an increase of 5%.

Sure, the polls aren't definitive (and I hope they're wrong). But they are the best indicator one has. And those indications show two things. The Tories are likely to get a comfortable majority and Corbyn has been hammered by Johnson's relative popularity.

A slightly disconcerting poll has just been released by ICM Research, which just a 6-point lead for the Tories.

From my perspective, I'm hoping this is a complete outlier.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May literally disappeared from view. Johnson, an infinitely more charismatic figure, has been in the media every day.

From the moment the 2017 election was called, Labour rose steadily in the polls from 25% to 40% - an increase of 15%. In that time, the Tories dropped from 47% to 43%. A drop of 4%

This time around, Labour have gone from an average of 28%, when the election was called, to an average of 33% - an increase of 5%. At the same time, the Tories have gone from an average of 38% to an average of 43% - an increase of 5%.

Sure, the polls aren't definitive (and I hope they're wrong). But they are the best indicator one has. And those indications show two things. The Tories are likely to get a comfortable majority and Corbyn has been hammered by Johnson's relative popularity.

I wouldn't to be honest. Jeremy Corbyn won't be governing with a majority, that's the only thing I'd bet on.

May didn't really disappear. She did the Neil interview as well as the staggered debates with Corbyn.

Johnson has largely disappeared himself. His previous articles are getting dragged up repeatedly but the man himself isn't really doing much of anything as far as I can tell.

Sure, the polls are only indicative. It just seems far fetched to me that Labour will haemorrhage seats as they suggest. Some certainly but that many seems a bit much. There just isn't a single positive reason to vote Tory.

Anyways, well know when the exit poll comes out.

Nody

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but where would you put your money right now?

Knowing the UK? A split parliament without majority for Tories (or a practical majority for Brexit at least) nor Labour + other interested parties ending up with a Tory minority government (in practice) who seeks support on a question to question basis basically. Or in the words of Tom Highway (Clint Eastwood) in Heartbreak Ridge "A cluster****".