General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

CelticRambler

NHS being sold off to the US?

Not true!

They're giving it away for free, to that fine up-standing, tax-paying institution and paragon of workers' rights, Amazon Inc.

Amazon has been given free access to healthcare information collected by the NHS as part of a contract with the government.

The material, which excludes patient data, could allow the multinational technology company to make, advertise and sell its own products.

Amazon, which is worth $863bn and is run by the world’s richest person, Jeff Bezos, can then create “new products, applications, cloud-based services and/or distributed software”, which the NHS would not benefit from financially. It can also share the information with third parties.

Whodathunkit. :rolleyes:

Letwin_Larry

dunno know about you guys but i cant wait for the results to start rolling in. i'm personally not too bothered who wins/not, but it will be fascinating to see how this actually pans out and the ramifications for not only the UK, but the EU and ourselves as well.

quokula

Newest poll has the gap back down at 6% again, in hung Parliament territory. Clearly a lot of variance and still a lot that can happen.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

ancapailldorcha

Best for Britain seem to be in an ebullient mood:

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1203980133201305600

However, given that they'll be tightly hoarding their data, this should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

hometruths

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno know about you guys but i cant wait for the results to start rolling in. i'm personally too bothered who wins/not, but it will be fascinating to see how this actually pans out and the ramifications for not only the UK, but the EU and ourselves as well.

agreed, I suspect this thread might have a few nightowls on Thursday!

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Best for Britain seem to be in an ebullient mood:

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1203980133201305600

However, given that they'll be tightly hoarding their data, this should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

I do not think there has been an election in the UK with so much tactical voting being promoted. It is a complete unknown, and could have a massive effect constituency by constituency.

It is all to play for still. Bear in mind that every constituency that May visited was a loss to the Tories.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

A slightly disconcerting poll has just been released by ICM Research, which just a 6-point lead for the Tories.

It's only one point closer than their last one, not a big swing.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not think there has been an election in the UK with so much tactical voting being promoted. It is a complete unknown, and could have a massive effect constituency by constituency.

It is all to play for still. Bear in mind that every constituency that May visited was a loss to the Tories.

This is not a normal election. Even in 2017, the Conservatives had the advantage of being able to define Brexit depending on who they were talking to. Now, they have been exposed as undermining the economy, security and the union.

Millions of people have marched to stop Brexit. If even a fraction of those who were bussed in vote tactically then it could change things.

Letwin_Larry

quokula wrote: »

Newest poll has the gap back down at 6% again, in hung Parliament territory. Clearly a lot of variance and still a lot that can happen.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is not a normal election. Even in 2017, the Conservatives had the advantage of being able to define Brexit depending on who they were talking to. Now, they have been exposed as undermining the economy, security and the union.

Millions of people have marched to stop Brexit. If even a fraction of those who were bussed in vote tactically then it could change things.

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

Inquitus

Personally I hope its either a hung parliament or a Lab/SNP coalition, the latter seems wishful thinking at this stage, even a small Tory majority is probably not good enough to swing the no deal Johnson is mooting.

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

I think mcdonnell has been excellent, just in terms of how he has elucidated labours position and carried himself under questioning. Seems to have mellowed considerably from his more firebrand days, just consistently comes across well, whatever about the actual merit of those policies.

Professor Moriarty

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

yep i have that nagging feeling that there are a few twists 'n turns left in this race yet.

must admit i thought McDonnell's speech earlier today was very good, he came across as very caring, sincere, and very honest.

Absolutely. McDonnell infinitely superior to Corbyn. Which is why he was sent out to bat for Labour in the media whenever possible.

Joe_ Public

Sam Russell wrote: »

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

I think that's spot on, have said it many times. A hell of a lot easier to state boldly you'll vote tory after a lifetime voting labour, another thing entirely to go into polling booth and actually mark that x. I think it will be beyond a lot of them. Or will just end up staying home which is second best for labour.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

As I said, tactical voting has never been deployed before - at least not on this scale.

How many Labour voters will find their hand stayed when the ballot paper is in front of them? 'Remember Thatcher and the miners strike' or 'Remember Thatcher and the Poll Tax' may echo in their heads and their pencil will naturally move to vote as they always did.

One hopes anyway.

Yep. If aging Labour voters in the so called "Red Wall" think that the party of privatisation, austerity and abandonment of the North is going to take care of them then they deserve everything they'll get if they vote Conservative.

ArmaniJeanss

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's only one point closer than their last one, not a big swing.

It's the sort of thing which can rejuvenate a campaign in the closing days though, lots of Labour activists will approach tomorrow with a swing in their step that they otherwise wouldn't have had. Clearly it'll be cherry-picking on their behalf, but that only human.

A decent not terrible poll, and a couple of mis-steps by Boris today (Leeds Hospital incident in particular). Jeremy doing what he does quite well (energetic preaching to a large rally of the converted in Bristol). Being realistic it's probably as good a day as Labour has had.

There's still a plausible theory that voting Tory would be so anathema to the north that the Red Wall will hold even with reduced majorities or increased abstentions. And that conversely the Tory Remain vote might come under pressure because of one too many Get Brexit Done soundbites.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's the sort of thing which can rejuvenate a campaign in the closing days though, lots of Labour activists will approach tomorrow with a swing in their step that they otherwise wouldn't have had. Clearly it'll be cherry-picking on their behalf, but that only human.

A decent not terrible poll, and a couple of mis-steps by Boris today (Leeds Hospital incident in particular). Jeremy doing what he does quite well (energetic preaching to a large rally of the converted in Bristol). Being realistic it's probably as good a day as Labour has had.

There's still a plausible theory that voting Tory would be so anathema to the north that the Red Wall will hold even with reduced majorities or increased abstentions. And that conversely the Tory Remain vote might come under pressure because of one too many Get Brexit Done soundbites.

There is a theme to this thread.

9:1 polls in favour of a 10-15 point lead for the Tories - conversation talks about how polls can't be trusted/must be questioned.

One minority poll comes out that suggests a 6-point lead and all of a sudden, a Corbyn majority is within view and the polls can be trusted.

I'd say don't take our the champagne yet. Let's see what forthcoming polls show. If trends are anything to go by, we'll see another 10-15% lead for the Tories later today or tomorrow.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is a theme to this thread.

9:1 polls in favour of a 10-15 point lead for the Tories - conversation talks about how polls can't be trusted/must be questioned.

One minority poll comes out that suggests a 6-point lead and all of a sudden, a Corbyn majority is within view and the polls can be trusted.

I'd say don't take our the champagne yet. Let's see what forthcoming polls show. If trends are anything to go by, we'll see another 10-15% lead for the Tories later today or tomorrow.

Who's getting carried away with that one poll? That's actually the second one in past couple of days to show a 6 point gap btw (com res also), but let that pass. I'm not excited by any of them. By common expert consensus they need in the region of 7-8 point lead to guarantee a majority so by any measure this remains in the balance.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Who's getting carried away with that one poll? That's actually the second one in past couple of days to show a 6 point gap btw (com res also), but let that pass. I'm not excited by any of them. By common expert consensus they need in the region of 7-8 point lead to guarantee a majority so by any measure this remains in the balance.

Clearly people are not getting carried away with one poll, in fact my reading of many of the posts is that this election has simply too many unusual parts to be able to have confidence in any poll. Tactical voting, the power of Brexit over traditional party lines, the fact that a hung parliament is very much on the agenda, the fact that so many senior party members are coming out against their own party.

Their was also a very large registration drive in the lead up.

So many factors at play, factors that many be very difficult for the polling companies to have taken into account. Although, it is likely that they have taken at least some of them into account.

McGiver

schmittel wrote: »

Thick people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

That must be a fairly depressing point of view to hold, especially with such conviction.

I never said thick. I said less educated. You concluded they are thick hence it's your opinion, not mine. You're arguing with yourself.
Is that called a straw man fallacy?;)

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Clearly people are not getting carried away with one poll, in fact my reading of many of the posts is that this election has simply too many unusual parts to be able to have confidence in any poll. Tactical voting, the power of Brexit over traditional party lines, the fact that a hung parliament is very much on the agenda, the fact that so many senior party members are coming out against their own party.

Their was also a very large registration drive in the lead up.

So many factors at play, factors that many be very difficult for the polling companies to have taken into account. Although, it is likely that they have taken at least some of them into account.

Listening to the likes of curtice and peter kelner(?) on it, i get the impression the polls cant fully take things like tactical voting into account and thats making them a bit more wary. Kelner (if i have name right) predicted a 40 seat tory majority when asked on sky earlier, but then offered the caveat that he predicted exactly the same last time as well and look how that worked out for him.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Best for Britain seem to be in an ebullient mood:

https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1203980133201305600

However, given that they'll be tightly hoarding their data, this should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

This is just a "morale management".

hometruths

McGiver wrote: »

I never said thick. I said less educated. You concluded they are thick hence it's your opinion, not mine. You're arguing with yourself.
Is that called a straw man fallacy?;)

Fair enough. I will correct it.

McGiver wrote: »

Educated people tend to verify their information sources and don't believe every piece of information on the Internet. It's as simple as that. Everyone is prone to echo-chambering but less educated people much more so. This is the key point which is being abused.

Less educated people wrecking it for everybody else. It's as simple as that.

That must be a fairly depressing point of view to hold, especially with such conviction

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yep. If aging Labour voters in the so called "Red Wall" think that the party of privatisation, austerity and abandonment of the North is going to take care of them then they deserve everything they'll get if they vote Conservative.

A theory I've heard is that they are buying into Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" malarkey - but are completely forgetting this means five more years of Tory rule and austerity (short term thinking at its worst).

sid waddell

Polling is literally a weighting game. If you make incorrect assumptions in your framework, you'll have a bad poll. We won't know who has been getting their weighting right and who has been getting it wrong until Thursday night.

Survation's poll with a 14 point Tory lead from last night seems all over the place to me. It's possible thee Tories could be 14 ahead, but the figures in the poll itself are bizarre.

It has the Tories ahead of Labour in London, and the combined Labour-Lib Dem vote in London at just 42.7%, even if it does have 10% undecided. That seems ludicrous to me.

It has Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland and less than 1% behind the SNP. I also have a very hard time believing that.

If, like me, you want Labour to win (or the Tories to not get a majority) and are clutching at straws, there's a guy here who has a good track record who has a thread which sets out why the real Tory lead may be as low as 2.6%. He called 2017 correctly including predicting Labour would win Canterbury at odds of 25/1. I'm not convinced he's right this time though.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354

ArmaniJeanss

Matt Hancock dispatched to Leeds General to try to diffuse the optics of the boy lying on the floor, and the mess Johnson made of the issue.

A Labour activist there has apparently punched him according to Laura K.

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

Polling is literally a weighting game. If you make incorrect assumptions in your framework, you'll have a bad poll. We won't know who has been getting their weighting right and who has been getting it wrong until Thursday night.

Survation's poll with 14 point Tory lead from last night seems all over the place to me.

It has the Tories ahead of Labour in London, and the combined Labour-Lib Dem vote in London at just 42.7%, even if it does have 10% undecided. That seems ludicrous to me.

It has Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland and less than 1% behind the SNP. I also have a very hard time believing that.

If, like me, you want Labour to win (or the Tories to not get a majority) and are clutching at straws, there's a guy here who has a good track record who has a thread which sets out why the real Tory lead may be as low as 2.6%. He called 2017 correctly including predicting Labour would win Canterbury at odds of 25/1. I'm not convinced he's right this time though.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354

Yep that survation poll with labour losing in London just stretches credulity to breaking point. If tories won london you'd have to be thinking in terms of 3 figure majority. Just cant buy that.

Leroy42

Not that is much better, but it was not Hancock but one of his aides or helpers that was punched.

Either way, that is totally uncalled for and disgraceful behaviour

ArmaniJeanss

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not that is much better, but it was not Hancock but one of his aides or helpers.

Either way, that is totally uncalled for and disgraceful behaviour

Agreed, another case of Labour managing to turn a potentially positive story into a negative I fear.

Strazdas

sid waddell wrote: »

Polling is literally a weighting game. If you make incorrect assumptions in your framework, you'll have a bad poll. We won't know who has been getting their weighting right and who has been getting it wrong until Thursday night.

Survation's poll with a 14 point Tory lead from last night seems all over the place to me. It's possible thee Tories could be 14 ahead, but the figures in the poll itself are bizarre.

It has the Tories ahead of Labour in London, and the combined Labour-Lib Dem vote in London at just 42.7%, even if it does have 10% undecided. That seems ludicrous to me.

It has Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland and less than 1% behind the SNP. I also have a very hard time believing that.

If, like me, you want Labour to win (or the Tories to not get a majority) and are clutching at straws, there's a guy here who has a good track record who has a thread which sets out why the real Tory lead may be as low as 2.6%. He called 2017 correctly including predicting Labour would win Canterbury at odds of 25/1. I'm not convinced he's right this time though.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354

An elephant in the room is that British politics has been deeply, deeply divided for the last three and a half years with opinion polls all over the place and the public and parliament unable to agree on anything.

Can any party win a comfortable majority against such a backdrop?