General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Darc19

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

that picture of the boy lying on a floor in A&E could be a game-changer. Boris' reaction was dismissive, uncaring & lacked empathy. It's as if he just wished the little fella would just feck off.

i myself had a bout of pneumonia at the age of 7, so i can tell you it's an ass kicker. 6 weeks in hospital, i ended up in an oxygen-tent, and fortunately got excellent treatment from our county hospital for which i am ever grateful.

not sure about anybody else but Johnson's lack of empathy struck home for me, and as a very undecided "voter" i would be now extremely reluctant to vote Tory. (i'm not a UK voter btw, but i'm speaking hypothetically).

i'm sure anyone with a sick child will be pretty disgusted.

In ANY election anywhere in the world, such an image would be an immediate game changer.

The only problem in the uk is that Corbyn is leader of the opposition and he just doesn't command respect from the middle ground.

So possibly the lib dems will gain from this, but still likely that Trump2 will win

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968?s=19


This is an excellent tweet from Corbyn. Labour could really make hay with this.

Peter Flynt

On the Mathematics of polling.

1/root n (where n is the number of people polled) will deliver a margin of error with a 95% level of confidence.

Example:
1000 people polled.
1/root(1000) = 0.0316 (3.16% margin of error).
Therefore actual result is 95% likely to be within plus or minus 3.16% of the poll.

Increase this to 3000 people and the MoE is 1.82%

ArmaniJeanss

Shelga wrote: »

Is that when we can expect the exit poll?

Forgive what is probably a stupid question, but how come exit polls seem to be vastly more accurate than polls taken before election day?

I know that a person is probably unlikely to lie about who they’ve just voted for (whereas they could change their mind after they’ve done a pre-election poll) but surely an exit poll still doesn’t cover that many people?

It's a massive exit poll, takes place at 140 polling stations and up to ~250 votes at each of those. So around 30000 people on the day, dwarfing all other polls.

Crucially it's the same 140 polling stations each time, so it can measure trends as opposed to just base vote numbers.

The mistake the old exit polls use to make was picking what they considered the most important constituencies, usually perceived marginals. But these constituencies changed each time so the figures had to be interpreted from scratch each time.

Infini

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Referendum should have a time limit of 4 years, if the results could not be implemented, should be another referendum

Had the original referendum been legally binding a rerun would have already been decided due to the 1st being rendered null and void for blatent cheating.

Truth is the UK's political structures are failing it's people ESPECIALLY FPTP and how it disenfranchises voters, that's the ultimate cause of all of this, immigration and the media are just the catalysts for aggravating the problems but the fact that this whole exercise nearly 3 and 1/2 years later has left the UK utterly paralyzed goes to show what happens when weak leadership, toxic biased media and political incompetence and blatant self interest of putting their private interests before the national interest combine to create the perfect shítstorm that brings down a nation when not dealt with with reason, facts and level headed leadership.

Honestly a conservative victory on Thursday is a defeat for the average UK citizen because it will allow chancers, liars and cheating wasters to get away with a national scam of the highest order, where idiocy and ignorance allowed what was the conservative party to go about destroying lives and opportunities for the country to line the pockets of corrupt and greedy individuals. I dont like Corbyn he's not a strong leader IMO and certainly has been far too indecisive in the past but compared to a blatent liar, cheater and utter chancer like Boris and those who back him, he's still the better option despite the flaws and if there's any luck the conservatives will be denied a majority.

ancapailldorcha

Darc19 wrote: »

In ANY election anywhere in the world, such an image would be an immediate game changer.

The only problem in the uk is that Corbyn is leader of the opposition and he just doesn't command respect from the middle ground.

So possibly the lib dems will gain from this, but still likely that Trump2 will win

What's insane here is that the older voters who are more likely to need the NHS might vote for more of the current mismanagement and dismantling of it.

The Lib Dems are done. At most they'll take 2-3 dozen seats. At most. Swinson is no Nick Clegg. I don't think she's even an improvement on Tim Farron.

Peter Flynt

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What's insane here is that the older voters who are more likely to need the NHS might vote for more of the current mismanagement and dismantling of it.

The Lib Dems are done. At most they'll take 2-3 dozen seats. At most. Swinson is no Nick Clegg. I don't think she's even an improvement on Tim Farron.

Swinson ran a foolish campaign.

There was a touch of "Gilmore for Taoiseach" as she felt that Brexit could make her Prime Minister if only all the remainers would vote for her.

Letwin_Larry

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

You'd have to think every Labour activist in Red Wall-land tomorrow will be armed with copies of this photo and a 'this is what Boris does to your kids' spiel.

Whether it can be a game changer or not is open to question, though I do think the Conservative vote might have been very soft. If anyone had been looking for a bona-fide up-to-date excuse not to back Johnson, well now they have it.

It's probably the perfect time for this to have happened as well (sounds callous, sorry). With just two days campaigning left it seems certain that at least one of them will be in an area where Labour is strong. Whatever version of Get Brexit Done that the Tories were planning on being the focal point is going to struggle to get through.

it may not change the course of this election. but it could. only time will tell.

if i were voting in this election (which i am not) i would upto now be completely confused. i could give you several good reasons not to vote for either Lab or Tory.
but having watched Johnson when presented with that boy's pic, it's very clear to me he doesn't give a fig about that poor lad, other than belatedly realizing how many votes it will likely cost him. callous & cynical.

in contrast i listened to McDonnell earlier and was impressed. he seemed genuinely sincere, and caring.

my guess? hung parliament here we come.

Infini

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968?s=19


This is an excellent tweet from Corbyn. Labour could really make hay with this.

I like that one to be honest best way of cutting through the BS is to hammer home that poor kid and all of this bullshítting is nothing more than an attempt to bait and switch just like the whole anti-semitism angle.

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968?s=19


This is an excellent tweet from Corbyn. Labour could really make hay with this.

A clever line of attack. The media hate him and have been trying to stitch him up : nothing to lose this late in the game by fighting back and labelling them biased, it won't cost him a vote

hotmail.com

Sir Oxman wrote: »

The results start to trickle in from about midnight.
Then there's a huge influx of results from 2am onwards.
Generally get an idea by 4-5am, full results from GB by morning time/lunchtime latest

NI doesn't start counting till Friday morning.

NI count overnight since 2010.

BBC Northern Ireland will do their own coverage on the night as wel, with the network coverage moving to BBC 2.

Joe_ Public

Kensington voter on newsnight. No interest in lib dems, he says, they have no chance. So it's between the lying buffoon and the marxist. So which one's he going for. Oh the lying buffoon of course, he says.

liamtech

Sir Oxman wrote: »

The results start to trickle in from about midnight.
Then there's a huge influx of results from 2am onwards.
Generally get an idea by 4-5am, full results from GB by morning time/lunchtime latest

NI doesn't start counting till Friday morning.

Thats incorrect actually NI will begin counting at 10pm on thursday night this year

4068ac1elhodqr

Should Labour not be selling their USP better: the 4-day week.
Hands up if don't want an extra day off every week.

hotmail.com

Shelga wrote: »

Is that when we can expect the exit poll?

Forgive what is probably a stupid question, but how come exit polls seem to be vastly more accurate than polls taken before election day?

I know that a person is probably unlikely to lie about who they’ve just voted for (whereas they could change their mind after they’ve done a pre-election poll) but surely an exit poll still doesn’t cover that many people?

The exit poll is now a joint exit poll by the main news broadcasters in Britain - BBC, ITV and Sky. The BBC and ITV used to commission separate exit polls. Sky only joined in the act recently, 2010 I think.

Because they've joined up, it means they have more resources to basically question more people at more polling stations. It means that the accuracy of the exit poll is very good.

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1204168230346067968?s=19


This is an excellent tweet from Corbyn. Labour could really make hay with this.

Where was that corbyn on friday night though when we needed him? Attack mode is needed now but will it be too little too late?

Joe_ Public

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

Should Labour not be selling their USP better: the 4-day week.
Hands up if don't want an extra day off every week.

Looks a good policy to me, lot of merit to it. Daft questions people keep asking about how nhs can function on 4 day werk. Most nurses work 3 or 4 day weeks as it stands. Its more about hours per week than days. Maybe they just need to explain it better.

4068ac1elhodqr

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Looks a good policy to me, lot of merit to it. Daft questions people keep asking about how nhs can function on 4 day werk. Most nurses work 3 or 4 day weeks as it stands. Its more about hours per week than days. Maybe they just need to explain it better.

Indeed, it's an offer that reckon 9/10 cats would prefer.

Consider France is more productive with their 35hr weeks (than uk's 37.5-42). Many other factors the 'mental health card', along with preperation for the coming 'gig/remote-working economy' leading to UBI come 2030.

The practicalities are a bit more tricky than the offer, but it's the offer that 'sells' I.e. worry about the rollout/rollback later.

liamtech

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Since 1992 yes the exit polls have been right. Assuming the exit poll is in line with expectations then you know the gist of it by midnight, and it's confirmed by 1am. But in 2017 because the exit poll was contrary to the general pre election polling you didn't know what way it was going exactly until early the next morning.

Again this is partially correct

The Exit poll was also incorrect in 2015 - exit poll predicted Tory largest party with no overall majority

Actually they got the majority that time -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

Darc19

You'd almost have pity for the uk.

Their choice is boris or corbyn.

Reminds me of Brewsters millions "none of the above"

Peter Flynt

I'd say Johnson and the tories will win with a 20-30 seat majority.
Corbyn will resign thereafter.

hometruths

Do the posters on here who would favour a Labour victory believe Corbyn should resign if Tories win a majority?

And what about if a hung parliament?

Melanchthon

Darc19 wrote: »

In ANY election anywhere in the world, such an image would be an immediate game changer.

The only problem in the uk is that Corbyn is leader of the opposition and he just doesn't command respect from the middle ground.

So possibly the lib dems will gain from this, but still likely that Trump2 will win

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What's insane here is that the older voters who are more likely to need the NHS might vote for more of the current mismanagement and dismantling of it.

Aren't these type of responses a bit overwrought particularly for an Irish message board.
From only minimal (touch wood) experience of the two systems the HSE is in worse state.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/more-than-10000-over75s-faced-inhumane-hospital-trolley-wait-38516085.html

In terms of optics events like this are reported and pictured all the time.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/931972/

https://www.thesun.ie/news/4834085/shocking-woman-back-fracture-trolley-university-hospital-limerick/



Yet for some reason it's not "a game changer" here (because the Tories can't be blamed)

The NHS is worth protecting alright but from what I can see the risk isn't that the NHS will turn into American style healthcare the risk is that it will turn into the HSE yet I imagine a good chunk of the posters here will vote FG or FF come the spring because they will be safer with the economy and so on.

Peter Flynt

schmittel wrote: »

Do the posters on here who would favour a Labour victory believe Corbyn should resign if Tories win a majority?

And what about if a hung parliament?

English will vote Johnson in their millions. Brexit has let the racist genie out of the bottle and they'll flock towards the tories.

So a Corbyn victory ain't gonna happen and he'll resign after 2 general election defeats. Corbyn will also be 74 at the 2024 election.

I hope I'm wrong.

liamtech

schmittel wrote: »

Do the posters on here who would favour a Labour victory believe Corbyn should resign if Tories win a majority?

And what about if a hung parliament?

Well i have been critical of corbyn - not because of supposed antisemitism, or 'communism' nonsense - but because i feel he is weak on his brexit policy - due to the fact he is a brexiteer -

On the man himself -

Tory Majority - yea he will probably step aside

Hung Parliament - that depends on if he manages to get a coalition- his resignation COULD be the cost of that - depends on how it tallys

If there is no coalition, with a completely hung parliament, or a Tory Minority Gvt - then i could see Corbyn staying

But i feel this is his LAST chance to get into no10

Arthur Daley

liamtech wrote: »

Again this is partially correct

The Exit poll was also incorrect in 2015 - exit poll predicted Tory largest party with no overall majority

Actually they got the majority that time -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myntJD4EXaQ

Jeysus it was close enough for me. There was hardly anyone who was backing anything other than a hung parliament, and certainly very few called a Tory overall majority right up to 10pm that night.

CelticRambler

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

Consider France is more productive with their 35hr weeks (than uk's 37.5-42). ...

A bit off-topic, but the French are far from productive. They're the greatest load of time-wasters I've ever had the misfortune to work with, and I absolutely detest the 35-hour week imposed on me, which typically translates into being at work for 45 hours but only paid for 35. And thanks to the rest of French labour law, which means small businesses don't take on the staff they really need, I also spend most of my working day doing work that's two levels below my pay-grade, and quelle surprise being paid at that same level.

Give me a good old exploitative Anglo-saxon workplace any day. Fortunately, I didn't move to France to work, so I can put up with their non-productive inefficiency as long as I'm getting my travel expenses paid ... but woebetide any lazy French(wo)man who volunteers for any of my festival teams thinking they can bring their workplace attitudes with them. :mad: My castle, my rules!

Melanchthon

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

Indeed, it's an offer that reckon 9/10 cats would prefer.

Consider France is more productive with their 35hr weeks (than uk's 37.5-42).

I don't think you can make a fair comparison in terms of productivity per person when France has more than double the unemployment rate of the UK (8.6 Vs 3.8%).

There is a productivity problem in the UK but this article which is from the guardian (not the express) highlights one of the key factors, a large amount of low skilled labour available

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/05/productivity-usually-bounces-back-after-a-recession-britain-economy

Letwin_Larry

in relation to the pic of the sick boy.

as anybody who has a sick child knows, that child will lie down anywhere if feeling really awful. i've often seen kids lie down in GPs waiting rooms and in A&E. that said a child shouldn't have to wait hours to be seen, but we all know sadly you do.

IMO the most damning aspect of it was Boris' reaction, or rather his failure to react until prompted by the reporter. is it any wonder they have been keeping him under wraps?

liamtech

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

in relation to the pic of the sick boy.

as anybody who has a sick child knows, that child will lie down anywhere if feeling really awful. i've often seen kids lie down in GPs waiting rooms and in A&E. that said a child shouldn't have to wait hours to be seen, but we all know sadly you do.

IMO the most damning aspect of it was Boris' reaction, or rather his failure to react until prompted by the reporter. is it any wonder they have been keeping him under wraps?

Well that may well be true, but this isnt a case of a child lying in a waiting room

The Child was

• Admitted to Hospital
• was recognized as needing care
• was receiving treatment
• but had to lie on a floor as there was no beds

Its one thing to lie down in a waiting room - quite another of getting through to the AnE but lying on a floor while receiving treatment