General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Water John

With the 'Love Actually' ad the Tories should be censored for, cringeworthiness.
Rates up there with Bertie in the cupboard. At least he had politically retired, at that point.

BTW the mother of which of his children, features in the ad?

https://www.breakingnews.ie/discover/hugh-grants-withering-response-to-boris-johnsons-love-actually-spoof-video-969527.html

"One of the cards... Boris Johnson didn't hold up was the one saying "Because at Christmas you tell the truth"

quokula

Also the stats didn’t shock me too much because in my experience practically everything the Tories say is an easily disproven lie, the Lib Dem’s have a well known track record for those dodgy bar charts, and I personally can’t think of any material I’ve seen from Labour that was misleading. You can disagree with their policies but they’re genuine policies.

quokula

quokula wrote: »

Also the stats didn’t shock me too much because in my experience practically everything the Tories say is an easily disproven lie, the Lib Dem’s have a well known track record for those dodgy bar charts, and I personally can’t think of any material I’ve seen from Labour that was misleading. You can disagree with their policies but they’re genuine policies.

58-billion for the WISPA women that's not costed in their manifesto?

Planning to end the Brexit debate with an extremely divisive referendum on Remain versus Remain 2.0!?

Labour claiming in their manifesto that they will only hit the top 5%, when it's now admitted that many in the 95%, including those earning only 25,000 pounds, will be affected by their spending plans.

Not sure if they should use nuclear weapons? What is the point of owning a deterrant if you are unwilling to use it? Not a genuine policy in the slightest.

I could go on - and on and on and on - but this alone disproves the fatuous claim that Labour are somehow the party of genuine, authentic policy.

hometruths

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'd say that's fair enough. I'm no expert on facebook or other social media stuff so i wouldnt be disputing your take on that at all.

I would only observe that even without revealing the labour figure, the 88% tory figure on its own is quite sobering. Unless thats in dispute too. All i can say is most of the big stuff that has come to my attention via being exposed in the media or other outlets has been perpetrated by the conservatives. Not all, but most of it. And recall vote leave, which broke electoral law in 2016, is now virtually driving entire online tory campaign. Guilt by association? I would think so.

So really, unless i can be pointed to clear evidence of widespread labour online shenanigans, I can only conclude the weight of available evidence lies on the other side and the instinctive response of "sure, they're all at it" doesnt quite cut it for me at this point.

Just to clarify I'm not skeptical of the 0% figure because I am an expert on social media.

Nor am I skeptical because I think Corbyn is a Marxist, or because I'm an ardent Brexiteer.

I am skeptical because Labour are a political party and political parties engage in misleading advertising, they have always done so, it might be more effective, widespread and targeted with new technology but the idea of a political party producing a misleading ad is nothing new.

In fact it is one of the things political parties are famous for, hence the phrase "campaign in poetry, govern in prose."

So the to me the claim 0% of their ads are misleading, whether they are online are anywhere else, does not seem credible.

And if I am skeptical of the 0% then clearly I would question the entire thing, so personally I would disregard the 88% figure too.

If they had said 22% vs 88% with the headline "Tories four times more likely to lie", I'd have bought that OK!

Sir Oxman

Aegir wrote: »

so if the Novara piece is NOT the Labour party, can you prove that the fake news is coming from the Tory party, or do we just presume it is because we want to?

why anyone believes anything that is posted on twitter is beyond me

Novara media is not the Labour party - that's been established.


You're right on that twitter fakery last night - it may not have been Tories...

Sir Oxman

Aegir wrote: »

if you read the articles rather than the spin, it is pretty obvious what happened. Boy turns up at A&E during the busiest week in three years and has to wait 4 1/2 hours for a bed, gets sleepy so rather than sleep in the chair, curls up on a pile of coats.

last time I was in A&E with my child, we waited about two hours before getting treatment and then the treatment itself took several hours. It is a very draining experience and tempers get frayed.

getting treatment in a public hospital can be a lottery. If you turn up at the right time it can be very quick, but turn up at the wrong time and it is a nightmare.

If you go back through every single election campaign for the past god knows how many years, there are similar stories rolled out. People become immune to it after a while.

You're missing the story - Johnsons' reaction.
At one stage he basically offers the reporter an 'interview'...

He cannot handle off script and leadership.

Sir Oxman

Joe_ Public wrote: »

People could just read the journalist who reported the story thread. The mother of the child was the one who contacted the newspaper so presumably she's ok with it receiving maximum publicity. As to whether she faked the whole thing, or is some lab stooge, you can see if reporter did due diligence and decide for yourselves. Peston, kuennsberg et al could maybe learn a thing or two.

https://twitter.com/DSheridanYEP/status/1204140106736656384?s=20

Yep, the disparity between real journos in regional papers and the national lot.
The James O'Brien interview with the editor of the Yorkshire Post was great this morning - clear, factual and the sheer exasperation from him on the state of the msm and social media

Joe_ Public

schmittel wrote: »

Just to clarify I'm not skeptical of the 0% figure because I am an expert on social media.

Nor am I skeptical because I think Corbyn is a Marxist, or because I'm an ardent Brexiteer.

I am skeptical because Labour are a political party and political parties engage in misleading advertising, they have always done so, it might be more effective, widespread and targeted with new technology but the idea of a political party producing a misleading ad is nothing new.

In fact it is one of the things political parties are famous for, hence the phrase "campaign in poetry, govern in prose."

So the to me the claim 0% of their ads are misleading, whether they are online are anywhere else, does not seem credible.

And if I am skeptical of the 0% then clearly I would question the entire thing, so personally I would disregard the 88% figure too.

If they had said 22% vs 88% with the headline "Tories four times more likely to lie", I'd have bought that OK!

Again, thats fair enough. I'm ok with that report being taken with a healthy dose of scepticism, thats good due diligence in operation. I mean, it does come from a quite credible source but without personally reviewing every ad, its hard to say how well it stands up to scrutiny.

A lot of the people on the left, particularly within momentum, are clearly no angels so i wouldnt put anything past them. They'd have to go some to keep up with the likes of cummings and his amigos in the dark arts stakes though. I'm pretty sure on that. If and when some whoppers do emerge from labour central, i promise I'll be the first to acknowledge it.

New poll just released from YouGov; a 9-point lead for the Tories.

They calculate this would translate into a majority of 339 seats for the Conservative Party, with Labour receiving 231 seats.

Whatever way you slice the political butter, Thursday's election is going to be close: it's a war between a Tory majority or none at all.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204521684868435968

Margin of error translates into a range of 311 to 367 seats for the Tories. So a hung parliament is possible yet.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Margin of error translates into a range of 311 to 367 seats for the Tories. So a hung parliament is possible yet.

Very much so.

I can't think of a more significant UK election; it's not just a resolution of Brexit, important though that is, but also the wider economic and geopolitical dimensions it has; the contrast could not be more stark.

It's close to the wire, there's no doubt about it.

There's all to play for.

ArmaniJeanss

That's their MRP poll, so its a big sample.
Polling done over a week so a lot of the polling won't include yesterdays or todays events.
Tory estimated seats was 359 in the first MRP 13 days ago, so have lost 20 in the intervening time.

All to play for still.

10000maniacs

It does not help that Labour are destroying themselves internally.
Jonathan Ashworth is doing his best to ensure Johnson gets an overall majority.
With a shadow cabinet the calibre of Labour's, Johnson has nothing to worry about on Thursday.

10000maniacs

10000maniacs wrote: »

It does not help that Labour are destroying themselves internally.
Jonathan Ashworth is doing his best to ensure Johnson gets an overall majority.
With a shadow cabinet the calibre of Labour's, Johnson has nothing to worry about on Thursday.

Johnson's chances of a majority have sliced down considerably - from 40+ to now 20+.

It's not in the bag.

ArmaniJeanss

There's a hell of a lot of seats which they are MRPing (to coin a verb) at less than 2% difference. So it's mega close.

That cuts both ways obviously, plenty that were marginal blue in the last MRP are now marginal red, and it wouldn't take a huge swing for them to go Tory.

Akrasia

schmittel wrote: »

I think if you genuinely believe 0% of Labour's ads are misleading then you're a victim of the oft derided echo chambers and confirmation bias that fake/misleading news preys on.

There are different levels of deception and it’s unwise to not draw a proper distinction.

During the week Corbyn was being accused of being a liar because he was given a gotcha question about watching the queens speech on Christmas Day by the same person who defended Johnson lying to that same queen about his reason for shutting down the Sovereign parliament of the United Kingdom

Did Corbyn lie about watching the queens speech? Probably, is that comparable to what Johnson did? Absolutely not, Johnson takes deception to a whole other level

Akrasia

10000maniacs wrote: »

It does not help that Labour are destroying themselves internally.
Jonathan Ashworth is doing his best to ensure Johnson gets an overall majority.
With a shadow cabinet the calibre of Labour's, Johnson has nothing to worry about on Thursday.

Who is on Johnson’s actual Cabinet?

How many cabinet ministers have the Tories gone through in the past 3 years?

If it’s disloyalties you’re looking for you’ll find plenty of them in the Tory party

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

There are different levels of deception and it’s unwise to not draw a proper distinction.

During the week Corbyn was being accused of being a liar because he was given a gotcha question about watching the queens speech on Christmas Day by the same person who defended Johnson lying to that same queen about his reason for shutting down the Sovereign parliament of the United Kingdom

Did Corbyn lie about watching the queens speech? Probably, is that comparable to what Johnson did? Absolutely not, Johnson takes deception to a whole other level

This has to be the most ludicrous part of this General Election.

Who cares whether Corbyn watches the Queen's Speech? Let's say he did. So what!?

Let's say he was honest. So what!?

There are many things to condemn Corbyn over. This is not one of them.

It's such an irrelevant, almost psychotically-pedantic point to comb over that even I, as a staunch anti-Corbyn person, cannot understand why such a massive drama is constructed out of something so completely irrelevant.

Akrasia

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

That's their MRP poll, so its a big sample.
Polling done over a week so a lot of the polling won't include yesterdays or todays events.
Tory estimated seats was 359 in the first MRP 13 days ago, so have lost 20 in the intervening time.

All to play for still.

Stormy weather forecast for Thursday could depress retired voters who may decide to not leave the house on Thursday while younger and working voters will be out shopping before Christmas

hotmail.com

That new poll makes Thursday's viewing much more interesting now.

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

That new poll makes Thursday's viewing much more interesting now.

Exit poll is out at 10pm, right?

When should we expect some realistic results to come in!? Anyone know?

Akrasia

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This has to be the most ludicrous part of this General Election.

Who cares whether Corbyn watches the Queen's Speech? Let's say he did. So what!?

Let's say he was honest. So what!?

There are many things to condemn Corbyn over. This is not one of them.

It's such an irrelevant, almost psychotically-pedantic point to comb over that even I, as a staunch anti-Corbyn person, cannot understand why such a massive drama is constructed out of something so completely irrelevant.

It’s to create the impression in voters minds that all politicians lie therefore Johnson’s reputation as a liar shouldn’t stop you from voting for him

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This has to be the most ludicrous part of this General Election.

Who cares whether Corbyn watches the Queen's Speech? Let's say he did. So what!?

Let's say he was honest. So what!?

There are many things to condemn Corbyn over. This is not one of them.

It's such an irrelevant, almost psychotically-pedantic point to comb over that even I, as a staunch anti-Corbyn person, cannot understand why such a massive drama is constructed out of something so completely irrelevant.

Laura Kuennsberg cares. She's in one of the most senior reporting positions in the UK. In fact she cares enough to have equivocated it to Boris Johnsons repeated lies over border checks in NI. One is as bad as the other, sure how could you trust a man who lies about watching the queens speech with national security?

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

This has to be the most ludicrous part of this General Election.

Who cares whether Corbyn watches the Queen's Speech? Let's say he did. So what!?

Let's say he was honest. So what!?

There are many things to condemn Corbyn over. This is not one of them.

It's such an irrelevant, almost psychotically-pedantic point to comb over that even I, as a staunch anti-Corbyn person, cannot understand why such a massive drama is constructed out of something so completely irrelevant.

I agree its irrelevant - i think it was meant to be a dig at Corbyn over him being fairly Republican in his views on the Monarchy

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

It’s to create the impression in voters minds that all politicians lie therefore Johnson’s reputation as a liar shouldn’t stop you from voting for him

Not at all.

People understand that Corbyn is not a pro-Monarchist. And that's absolutely fine. Neither am I, and nor should it be a reason to dismiss his premiership.

Again, it's a total non-point.

If anti-Corbyn voters cite this as their sole reason for opposing a Corbyn regime in the country, as opposed to a Johnson Administration, that is a sad reflection upon them and not as Corbyn as a leader.

And I, yet again, voice that as someone who, generally speaking, opposes the kind of politics that Corbyn stands for.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Very much so.

I can't think of a more significant UK election; it's not just a resolution of Brexit, important though that is, but also the wider economic and geopolitical dimensions it has; the contrast could not be more stark.

It's close to the wire, there's no doubt about it.

There's all to play for.

The delusion that this election is 'going to resolve Brexit' again. This election will only resolve (and might not even do that) the beginning of Brexit.

hotmail.com

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Exit poll is out at 10pm, right?

When should we expect some realistic results to come in!? Anyone know?

The first set of results come in from the North East of England from about 10.45 onwards. Sunderland and Newcastle have a traditional rivalry to get the first declaration out.

These will all be Labour seats, so it won't be until a little later that we will get a more accurate national picture.

The main bulk of results will flood in between 2 and 4 am.

But usually by about 1 am, enough results from around the regions will have declared and it should confirm if the exit poll has been accurate or not.

If it hasn't been accurate, you'll have to wait up longer to see what the outcome will be.

ArmaniJeanss

Deleted User wrote: »

Exit poll is out at 10pm, right?

When should we expect some realistic results to come in!? Anyone know?

A few of the really small constituencies aim to get the count done inside an hour, but they are safe Labour so are really only good for trends.
The marginals, by definition, have to do a slow careful count, and these don't start coming in until after 1am.
Between 1am and 4am there'll be what seems a result every minute.

beggars_bush

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A few of the really small constituencies aim to get the count done inside an hour, but they are safe Labour so are really only good for trends.
The marginals, by definition, have to do a slow careful count, and these don't start coming in until after 1am.
Between 1am and 4am there'll be what seems a result every minute.

How are the constituencies decided?

markodaly

All to play for, it appears the numbers are tightening. We could have a good overall majority for the Tories or another hung parliament.
Either way, this will be Corbyn's last as its impossible for him to become PM without a mega coalition.

If the Tories fail to get that majority, the knvies could come out for Boris.

I think its 2/1 for the Tories to get that majority, which is fair enough odds. They are the favourits but walking that tightrope.

Hard one to call personally, I dont want the Boris type of Brexit, but do we really need years and years more of uncertainty in the Irish economy and border region? Would be nice if they cancelled the whole thing, but we are far too gone for that to happen.