General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

whatawaster

Surely, regardless of the outcome, Corbyn is effectively finished * as Labour leader? Though no doubt he will try to cling on to power, and it's not clear if there is anyone with the strength to remove him, given the Unions support. His stewardship has been an absolute disaster, at the worst possible time during a national crisis. His unpopularity will possibly allow an extremely weak and divided Conservative party win a 3rd consecutive overall majority.

*This, of course, after a potential period of time where he leads a minority Labour-SNP-LD-Green-PC-SDLP coalition through a second referendum.

Letwin_Larry

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Obviously no one can predict the future but the simple fact is there is absolutely nothing to support the idea that the UK will negotiate trade deals better than what they already enjoy with EU.

On the other hand there is ample evidence that, despite not having happened yet, Brexit has already been economically damaging to the UK. I posted this in the Brexit thread when a certain pro Brexit poster made the claim that the UK economy was performing 'exceptionally well' and I got no response.

in the short to medium term the UK economy is going to take a big hit on Brexit, i expect it will rebound in the long term and even flourish if it can carve a niche for itself as some kind of Western European Singapore-esque low tax economy.

but it could be like a football being relegated. often a good side immediately earns promotion the following season. but quite often they dont, they languish in the lower division, a rot sets in, & things go from bad to worse, and the fans are left yearning for and recalling stories of 'The Glory Days'.

IAmTheReign

Lib Dem candidate stands down and endorses Labour candidate

Is this likely to be the first of many?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Do not just paste videos here please.

robinph

whatawaster wrote: »

Surely, regardless of the outcome, Corbyn is effectively finished * as Labour leader? Though no doubt he will try to cling on to power, and it's not clear if there is anyone with the strength to remove him, given the Unions support. His stewardship has been an absolute disaster, at the worst possible time during a national crisis. His unpopularity will possibly allow an extremely weak and divided Conservative party win a 3rd consecutive overall majority.

*This, of course, after a potential period of time where he leads a minority Labour-SNP-LD-Green-PC-SDLP coalition through a second referendum.

Highly likely we'll have three of the shortest term PM's in a row in the event of Johnson not getting a majority. Corbyn not likely to last much longer than a year after the second referendum as the other parties stop supporting him. It's then if Labour manage to put someone else in as leader before or after the subsequent election.

Letwin_Larry

robinph wrote: »

Highly likely we'll have three of the shortest term PM's in a row in the event of Johnson not getting a majority. Corbyn not likely to last much longer than a year after the second referendum as the other parties stop supporting him. It's then if Labour manage to put someone else in as leader before or after the subsequent election.

if Lab had a more centrist leader, this election would be all but over right now.
nothing personal but Corbyn brings too much baggage to allow huge numbers of UK voters to back him.

robinph

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Lib Dem candidate stands down and endorses Labour candidate

Is this likely to be the first of many?

I'm in one of the other constituencies mentioned in that article. Have been getting several Lib Dem ads from their candidate today, only just outnumbered by the Tory ones... no sign of them stepping aside yet, but we live in hope.

whatawaster

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

if Lab had a more centrist leader, this election would be all but over right now.
nothing personal but Corbyn brings too much baggage to allow huge numbers of UK voters to back him.

Or even a leftist leader without all the baggage of Corbyn.

Labour's shadow cabinet is not a particularly impressive group, maybe the backbenches is where the talent lies.

Letwin_Larry

whatawaster wrote: »

Or even a leftist leader without all the baggage of Corbyn.

Labour's shadow cabinet is not a particularly impressive group, maybe the backbenches is where the talent lies.

i actually felt the shadow Health sec was quite good, and came across very well, until that recording of him "joshing" around was released.
Starmer aside, there aren't many others that jump out mind you.

BonnieSituation

Aegir wrote: »

oh yeah, it sounds great on paper and is a lovely way of grabbing a few votes from people who might actually believe it can happen.

anyone who believes it though, does not understand simple economics

Yes that's exactly what this is all about.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The trade deal will take years to negotiate. We'll be hearing about this for years to come during which the Remain side will be launching a dogged Rejoin campaign. Pushing the WA through surrenders control to Brussels and starts Brexit. That's all.

all the time though, the UK is still effectively in the EU.

it gives everyone what they want for the time being and allows a few hundred thousand of the older Brexiteers to shuffle off this mortal coil.;)

Water John

There's plenty on Johnson's cabinet that would, jump out at you, for all the wrong reasons.

ancapailldorcha

Aegir wrote: »

all the time though, the UK is still effectively in the EU.

it gives everyone what they want for the time being and allows a few hundred thousand of the older Brexiteers to shuffle off this mortal coil.;)

Is there a point here?

robinph

Aegir wrote: »

all the time though, the UK is still effectively in the EU.

it gives everyone what they want for the time being and allows a few hundred thousand of the older Brexiteers to shuffle off this mortal coil.;)

The UK might still be following the EU rules during that time, but if they then come to their senses and decide that they are better off inside the EU after all they are then have to re-apply to join rather than just cancel the act of leaving.

If there is to be years more dithering before finally deciding to stay or leave it is far better to do it from a position of actually still being properly in the EU than being half out.

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i actually felt the shadow Health sec was quite good, and came across very well, until that recording of him "joshing" around was released.
Starmer aside, there aren't many others that jump out mind you.

Angela Rayner & Laura Pidcock would encourage me on what I've seen, dawn butler is very effective on equalities brief. Its not the greatest bunch granted, but compared to opposite side, i wouldnt knock them. I would like caroline lucas to be brought into any labour led cabinet. Probably unlikely to happen though.

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

If there is to be years more dithering before finally deciding to stay or leave it is far better to do it from a position of actually still being properly in the EU than being half out.

There is no half out. Out is out, and A50 specifies how to rejoin, and it is the same way other countries join.

Years of talks. Can't see the EU being to nice with rebates and opt-outs next time.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Opinium.
Polling period would include Hancock-gate.

CON: 45% (-1)
LAB: 33% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-1)

12 points looks too big to bridge. Opinium have consistently been the largest gap, as high as 19 points 3 weeks ago.
The 7 point swing is at least some sort of positive for Labour.

Reassuring news.

This time in 2017, a day before the election, the same Opinium organization gave the following results - a 6-point lead for the Tories.

CON: 43%
LAB: 37%

It's not a far jump to conclude that Johnson probably has it in the bag.

More opinion polls to be had in the coming hours though.

Bannasidhe

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not a far jump to conclude that Johnson probably has it in the bag.

.

Did Johnson bring the bag into the fridge with him as he was scurrying away from reporters?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-hides-fridge-general-election-piers-morgan-good-morning-britain-live-tv-a9241631.html


Talk about bravely bravely ran away.

A Dub in Glasgo

Some in the media are now only realising that they have been played by the Tories

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1204717963993063424

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Reassuring news.

This time in 2017, a day before the election, the same Opinium organization gave the following results - a 6-point lead for the Tories.

CON: 43%
LAB: 37%

It's not a far jump to conclude that Johnson probably has it in the bag.

More opinion polls to be had in the coming hours though.

But the Tories ended up with just over 42% and Labour on 40%.

serfboard

robinph wrote: »

The UK might still be following the EU rules during that time, but if they then come to their senses and decide that they are better off inside the EU after all they are then have to re-apply to join rather than just cancel the act of leaving.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is no half out. Out is out, and A50 specifies how to rejoin, and it is the same way other countries join.

You wonder whether there are some in the UK who think that, once they've left, if they ever wanted to join again, they could just carry on as before.

Kind of sums up a lot of the Brexit process really - English people's/politician's catastrophic misunderstanding of other countries positions.

And it's not as if their diplomatic services weren't informing them - the resignations of Ivan Rogers, Kim Darroch and Alexandra Hall Hall indicate how allergic the Tories in particular were to the truth.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But the Tories ended up with just over 42% and Labour on 40%.

It will depend on what later polls read.

In 2017, a day before the election, there were many polls that indicated a 1-5% gap between Labour and Tories - it ended up being 2.5% lead for the latter.

Survation was one such poll, where they predicted a 1% gap.

Later, we'll have a much better idea. If there is almost unanimity with a 10-15% lead, I think it's reasonable to conclude that Johnson probably has it in the bag.

In 2017, the two major polls which showed a 12-14% point lead were both commissioned by the Guardian - what a surprise!

Akrasia

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

if Lab had a more centrist leader, this election would be all but over right now.
nothing personal but Corbyn brings too much baggage to allow huge numbers of UK voters to back him.

Labours policies are actually pretty popular. People don't like Corbyn because
a) he scored a massive own goal by flip flopping so often on Brexit
b) the Tories have been vilifiying him for years in targetted campaigns linking him to anti semitism and terrorist sympathising

If Corbyn left and was replaced by someone else, it could have given a big bounce for Labour because the new leader would almost certainly be a remainer, and there wouldn't have been so much time for the character assasination that has turned so many people against Corbyn

But this is all moot now as the election is tomorrow and he aint going anywhere between now and then

robinph

serfboard wrote: »

You wonder whether there are some in the UK who think that, once they've left, if they ever wanted to join again, they could just carry on as before.

Kind of sums up a lot of the Brexit process really - English people's/politician's catastrophic misunderstanding of other countries positions.

And it's not as if their diplomatic services weren't informing them - the resignations of Ivan Rogers, Kim Darroch and Alexandra Hall Hall indicate how allergic the Tories in particular were to the truth.

Definitely, as shown by the multitude of people who state in response to the idea of having a confirmatory referendum that no second referendum should be held until after the UK has actually left and think that is a sensible proposition.

Joe_ Public

Akrasia wrote: »

Labours policies are actually pretty popular. People don't like Corbyn because
a) he scored a massive own goal by flip flopping so often on Brexit
b) the Tories have been vilifiying him for years in targetted campaigns linking him to anti semitism and terrorist sympathising

If Corbyn left and was replaced by someone else, it could have given a big bounce for Labour because the new leader would almost certainly be a remainer, and there wouldn't have been so much time for the character assasination that has turned so many people against Corbyn

But this is all moot now as the election is tomorrow and he aint going anywhere between now and then

Do you think that new remainer leader would have been able to claw back more of the lost ground in the critical "red wall" areas? Or would the losses there have been compensated for by more gains in the south/greater london area where labour are currently gaining ground anyway?

The strategy in last couple of days has been noticeably a shift towards a soft brexit position, Ian Lavery saying this morning he'll be campaigning to leave in another vote. They believe this to be their best chance of closing the gap further.

bren2001

You yesterday:

Deleted User wrote: »

Johnson's chances of a majority have sliced down considerably - from 40+ to now 20+.

It's not in the bag.

You today:

Deleted User wrote: »

Reassuring news.

This time in 2017, a day before the election, the same Opinium organization gave the following results - a 6-point lead for the Tories.

CON: 43%
LAB: 37%

It's not a far jump to conclude that Johnson probably has it in the bag.

More opinion polls to be had in the coming hours though.

It sums up how quickly your viewpoint just swings about the place. You change your mind and opinion on a whim. The polls show it's relatively close between a hung parliament and Tory majority. There's still a long long way to go. Nobody knows if the Tories have it in the bag. We won't know until tomorrow.

sid waddell

I'm beginning to get a distinct feeling that Labour have serious hope of repeating 2017 at least.

The Tories are in full blown panic mode and the narrative as we come towards tomorrow has moved rapidly towards what Labour want it to be over the last week.

Conventional wisdom says the Tories will get the majority, but conventional wisdom has a poor record in elections and referendums of late. Trends tend to overshoot and it's trending in favour of a late Labour recovery.

This is not over by a long shot.

sid waddell

sid waddell wrote: »

I'm beginning to get a distinct feeling that Labour have serious hope of repeating 2017 at least.

The Tories are in full blown panic mode and the narrative as we come towards tomorrow has moved rapidly towards what Labour want it to be over the last week.

Conventional wisdom says the Tories will get the majority, but conventional wisdom has a poor record in elections and referendums of late. Trends tend to overshoot and it's trending in favour of a late Labour recovery.

This is not over by a long shot.

Feelings aren't fact-based, though.

My feelings tell me that the Tories will probably secure a majority.

The basis of those feelings are the nourishing facts from most polls. The fact Opinium have come out and claimed that the Tories will enjoy a 12-13% lead is very encouraging - from my perspective at least.

If Opinium came out with a 5-point lead, I'd probably have agreed with you.

Joe_ Public

Another day, another Kuennsberg. I'm fairly certain she herself is in breach of electoral law here - maybe more knowledgeable folk can correct me - but also the sources who have fed her this news.

I would figure postal votes are more likely to be from older voters anyway so hardly shocking they'd not be good news for labour.

https://twitter.com/thepileus/status/1204782094192386049?s=20

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Another day, another Kuennsberg. I'm fairly certain she herself is in breach of electoral law here - maybe more knowledgeable folk can correct me - but also the sources who have fed her this news.

I would figure postal votes are more likely to be from older voters anyway so hardly shocking they'd not be good news for labour.

https://twitter.com/thepileus/status/1204782094192386049?s=20

i cant see what she's done that's so wrong tbh.
no more than tallymen in this country trying to get a feel for what's happening.
often they are spot on. but often they aren't.