General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

sid waddell

Deleted User wrote: »

Feelings aren't fact-based, though.

My feelings tell me that the Tories will probably secure a majority.

The basis of those feelings are the nourishing facts from most polls. The fact Opinium have come out and claimed that the Tories will enjoy a 12-13% lead is very encouraging - from my perspective at least.

If Opinium came out with a 5-point lead, I'd probably have agreed with you.

On the contrary, feelings are very much what it is about coming up to polling day, the feelings of the voters.

But there's also plenty of evidence.

Boris Johnson has gone into hiding and the Tories are clearly in panic mode. This has become a big narrative. The line can't come quick enough for them.

The NHS and the barefaced menacity of the Tories has dominated the last week. That dictates the feelings of voters.

Here's YouGov's MRP turnout figures v actual turnout figures from 2017. It looks like the MRP figures may be significantly overestimating the turnout figures among age demographics where the Tories do well and underestimating the age demographics where Labour do well.



BMG had a poll which showed Johnson only 39-32 ahead of Corbyn in preference for Prime Minister. If I was a Tory I'd be worried looking at that figure.

I'm sure I also saw two polls - one of the Labour held marginals with majorities of 10.0% or under, and an equivalent poll for Tory held marginals of 10.0% or under. In the Labour held marginals, Labour were 46-38 ahead, in the Tory held marginals, the Tories were 46-39 ahead. I can't remember off hand where I saw those polls - it could have been in the Datapraxis report for Labour last weekend, but I didn't dream them up.

The true vote for the Brexit party could be hidden - they're only standing in 274 seats. If they poll, say 3% nationally, that's on average about 7% of the vote - and that could hurt the Tories in northern marginals.

Expect Labour to squeeze about 2% each out of the Lib Dems and Greens from the YouGov MRP.

The Lib Dems and Greens pretty much always undershoot their polls in the election itself.

My feeling is that some of the Tory northern vote coould prove to be soft. Narrative affects that a lot, and Labour are winning the narrative as we go into polling day.

The Tories may well still get their majority, but they are desperate for the line - that's absolutely obvious.

I think 37-38% for Labour nationally is well gettable - it could 40% again on a good night. We'll see.

LuckyLloyd

She’s been promised a Conservative party role imo, only thing that makes sense. She can’t be this incompetent.

LuckyLloyd

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i cant see what she's done that's so wrong tbh.
no more than tallymen in this country trying to get a feel for what's happening.
often they are spot on. but often they aren't.

https://twitter.com/avasantina/status/1204767705036922881

The discussion in this thread quotes election guidelines - whether we think it’s a big deal or not, she’s in violation of them. And a person with such a high and influential political journalism position should not be breaking reporting guidelines imo.

bren2001

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i cant see what she's done that's so wrong tbh.
no more than tallymen in this country trying to get a feel for what's happening.
often they are spot on. but often they aren't.

You're not allowed reveal the results of postal votes before 10pm on the day of the election. It can influence voters decisions.

The huge difference between tallymen and what she has done, is that the tally is taken AFTER all the ballots have been cast. She has revealed information before the voting centers open tomorrow. Anyone who attends the opening of the postal votes is not allowed to keep a tally and must not try and see what way people have market the ballot paper (obviously everyone there is keeping an eye on it but you don't say anything until the polls have closed).

robinph

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i cant see what she's done that's so wrong tbh.
no more than tallymen in this country trying to get a feel for what's happening.
often they are spot on. but often they aren't.

And that is after the polls have closed that happens.

You'll notice that tomorrow there will be absolutely zero political stories in the news before 10pm other than a video of each of the leaders as they cast their own vote. There will be no mention of kids on hospital floors, people hiding in fridges, no claims of anti-semitism. The most you will get is possibly the colour tie each person is wearing.

To be giving out any kind of indication of the way people have voted whilst the polls are still open is a serious criminal offence.

Letwin_Larry

i tune into LBC fairly often, and the presenters there dont allow callers to discuss actual constituencies and/or candidates.
would that come under the same guidelines?

robinph

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i tune into LBC fairly often, and the presenters there dont allow callers to discuss actual constituencies and/or candidates.
would that come under the same guidelines?

Yes, but just because if they mention candidate A is standing in constituency Z then they have to mention every other candidate in that constituency as well.

But they can mention Johnson for example, but if they refer to his constituency then they have to list the rest of them too.

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i cant see what she's done that's so wrong tbh.
no more than tallymen in this country trying to get a feel for what's happening.
often they are spot on. but often they aren't.

I've read the guidelines qouted in those threads and she is in breach of them no question. It does seem that she's merely relaying stuff she's heard from party activists but, as alluded to above, does she have any awareness of the big responsibility of her position? She comes across more as a first day intern than an experienced senior reporter. Think she will get a slap on the wrist for this but nothing more.

droidus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

She’s been promised a Conservative party role imo, only thing that makes sense. She can’t be this incompetent.

Yup, and there's been at least 5 BBC execs poached by the Tories in recent years.

https://www.huckmag.com/perspectives/opinion-perspectives/bbc-bias-tom-mills/

A Dub in Glasgo

Electoral Commission Code of Conduct on Postal Votes England & Wales

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I've read the guidelines qouted in those threads and she is in breach of them no question. It does seem that she's merely relaying stuff she's heard from party activists but, as alluded to above, does she have any awareness of the big responsibility of her position? She comes across more as a first day intern than an experienced senior reporter. Think she will get a slap on the wrist for this but nothing more.

She's more like an online gossip columnist than a "journalist"......the amount of gaffes she makes is incredible.

Strazdas

bren2001 wrote: »

You're not allowed reveal the results of postal votes before 10pm on the day of the election. It can influence voters decisions.

The huge difference between tallymen and what she has done, is that the tally is taken AFTER all the ballots have been cast. She has revealed information before the voting centers open tomorrow. Anyone who attends the opening of the postal votes is not allowed to keep a tally and must not try and see what way people have market the ballot paper (obviously everyone there is keeping an eye on it but you don't say anything until the polls have closed).

She shouldn't even be alluding to any of this stuff as a senior BBC political correspondent just 48 hours before a general election.

It's not as if she's some minor opinion piece writer reviewing the papers on Sky News.

Melanchthon

Strazdas wrote: »

She shouldn't even be alluding to any of this stuff as a senior BBC political correspondent just 48 hours before a general election.

It's not as if she's some minor opinion piece writer reviewing the papers on Sky News.

Agreee, I thought she was probably more sympathetic to the Tories but considerably less biased than people like John Snow and the channel 4 reporting generally but this is way over the line and she should have known not to do it.

BonnieSituation

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/avasantina/status/1204767705036922881

The discussion in this thread quotes election guidelines - whether we think it’s a big deal or not, she’s in violation of them. And a person with such a high and influential political journalism position should not be breaking reporting guidelines imo.

It also seems that Dominic Raab was at it as well:

https://twitter.com/tronaldodumpo/status/1201984620331450368?s=09

This is madness!

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/avasantina/status/1204767705036922881

The discussion in this thread quotes election guidelines - whether we think it’s a big deal or not, she’s in violation of them. And a person with such a high and influential political journalism position should not be breaking reporting guidelines imo.

Very foolish of Kuenssberg there.

Is there a full version that doesn't end as abruptly?

Joe_ Public

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It also seems that Dominic Raab was at it as well:

https://twitter.com/tronaldodumpo/status/1201984620331450368?s=09

This is madness!

Raab just two points ahead of the lib dems in esher walton according to last night's poll. If I'd the choice between him or johnson being taken out, i'd flip a coin. Labour voters really need to do the right thing there.

BonnieSituation

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Raab just two points ahead of the lib dems in esher walton according to last night's poll. If I'd the choice between him or johnson being taken out, i'd flip a coin. Labour voters really need to do the right thing there.

I'd prefer Johnson just to absolutely gut the Tories for once and for all.

AllForIt

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I've read the guidelines qouted in those threads and she is in breach of them no question. It does seem that she's merely relaying stuff she's heard from party activists but, as alluded to above, does she have any awareness of the big responsibility of her position? She comes across more as a first day intern than an experienced senior reporter. Think she will get a slap on the wrist for this but nothing more.

Yesterday you were complaining about the Newsnight piece where they were discussing lying in politics. You seemed aggrieved that they spoke about this generally and didn't focus on Boris instead. They couldn't have done a piece on Boris lying because that would have broken the rules. But today your aware of the rules.

Joe_ Public

AllForIt wrote: »

Yesterday you were complaining about the Newsnight piece where they were discussing lying in politics. You seemed aggrieved that they spoke about this generally and didn't focus on Boris instead. They couldn't have done a piece on Boris lying because that would have broken the rules. But today your aware of the rules.

Thanks for raising this point, welcome being brought to task on it. But could you explain why they would raise the issue of Matt Hancock and the lie about the assault if they were precluded from discussing it? Why wouldn't they preface it by suggesting it was just a general discussion about politicians lying instead?

Can you remind me where i mentioned anything about boris johnson? I'm sure i did since you've raised it, just have no memory of it.

Itssoeasy

I’ve not been keeping up as I normally would be with a UK election as I’ve had enough of brexit and that whole mess. So I’ve one question and it’s are the polls close and can they be trusted ?(that’s technically two questions)

sid waddell

Amazing how all these BBC "mistakes" seem to be in favour of the Tories...

https://twitter.com/johnjh67/status/1204770212014370818

sid waddell

Tories spreading fake news yet again...

A fake "acid attack" in Chipping Barnet, to be precise.

At this stage, everything that comes from the mouth, the pen or the keyboard of a Tory or Tory supporter should be disbelieved unless proved beyond doubt to be true.

https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1204812638166900737

LATEST POLL | BMG Research

BMG Research results have come in with a 9-point lead for the Conservative Party.

Two polls in; two points to the Conservatives.

Let's hope this trend continues apace when more results are released this evening.

https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1204830283511607297

sid waddell

sid waddell wrote: »

Tories spreading fake news yet again...

A fake "acid attack" in Chipping Barnet, to be precise.

At this stage, everything that comes from the mouth, the pen or the keyboard of a Tory or Tory supporter should be disbelieved unless proved beyond doubt to be true.

https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1204812638166900737

so let me get right right.

When an independent tweeter posts lies about the Tories, then it has nothing to do with Labour, but when an independent tweeter posts lie about Labour, it is the Tories?

just want to understand level of hypocrisy we're dealing with here.

liamtech

Aegir wrote: »

so let me get right right.

When an independent tweeter posts lies about the Tories, then it has nothing to do with Labour, but when an independent tweeter posts lie about Labour, it is the Tories?

just want to understand level of hypocrisy we're dealing with here.

Hi

Could i see some of these tweets that labour has supposedly put out about the Tories?

Because we cant have hypocrisy can we?

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

Hi

Could i see some of these tweets that labour has supposedly put out about the Tories?

Because we cant have hypocrisy can we?

Apparently, we can.

When Labour lies about policy, next to nothing is said - apart from a handful of vague and forgetful whispers.

When Tories are found to be lying about policy, a digital earthquake takes place on this thread.

I know in previous posts you've claimed that I'm overtly biased - and that I am. But it amazes me how many times the Labour Party get a free pass where the Conservatives, if they did precisely the same thing, would be torn asunder by pro-Remain forces on this thread.

Hypocrisy is the currency of the day. Pity it has a tendency to bankrupt the value of a conversation.

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Apparently, we can.

When Labour lies about policy, next to nothing is said - apart from a handful of vague and forgetful whispers.

When Tories are found to be lying about policy, a digital earthquake takes place on this thread.

I know in previous posts you've claimed that I'm overtly biased - and that I am. But it amazes me how many times the Labour Party get a free pass where the Conservatives, if they did precisely the same thing, would be torn asunder by pro-Remain forces on this thread.

Hypocrisy is the currency of the day. Pity it has a tendency to bankrupt the value of a conversation.

But it amazes me how many times the Labour Party get a free pass

Can i please have some examples of Labour getting a free pass?

When Tories are found to be lying about policy, a digital earthquake takes place on this thread.

Yes that is true, for two reasons. Most of us on this thread, believe Brexit is a disaster for the UK -and- The Tories lie so often, that this thread clearly feels like it is on a Fault line - especially to True Blue Tories like yourself

When Labour lies about policy, next to nothing is said

What Policies has Labour Lied about?

You are biased, and you admit that - which is fine you are entitled to say what you want, and argue your corner

I am actually FAR more balanced, and have argued over Corbyn, Swinson, etc etc - So if you could provide evidence of the above i will give you an honest opinion

sid waddell

Aegir wrote: »

so let me get right right.

When an independent tweeter posts lies about the Tories, then it has nothing to do with Labour, but when an independent tweeter posts lie about Labour, it is the Tories?

just want to understand level of hypocrisy we're dealing with here.

Wow, so apparently the Tories have nothing to do with Guido Fawkes....right...

There's zero point arguing with somebody who firmly resides in the alternative reality bizarro world that Tory propaganda has manufactured, as you and another poster here so clearly do.

We can quite clearly see from these results that, even after 3.5 years of knowledge and debate, the British public are still pretty much split down the line when it comes to Leaving the EU.

This idea that somehow Remain, at 70% or some such conclusive figure, now warrants a second referendum, has been relegated to the depths of absurdity.

The reality is that the UK is just as divided as it was in 2016 - even more reason to implement the result. If Remain were at 70%+, I'd probably have to agree with posters here on cancelling Brexit if a referendum were held. But with these stats, we see no such appetite.

Let's get on and deliver on the 2016 result, rather than having the Remain half of the country stitching things up to get their own way.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204836496773132289

LATEST POLL RELEASE

This time, the poll release is from PanelBaseMD.

A clear 9-point lead - again - for the Conservative Party.

In terms of poll results on the final day, we're seeing far more consistency for a 9-12 point lead than we did in 2017.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204844374196211712