General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

ambro25

beggars_bush wrote: »

How did that election go again?

Hope someone goes to jail for leaking postal votes.

Cannot believe they actually open the postal vote boxea before the poles open.
The UK is a strange place

The UK has all the hallmarks of a banana republic constitutional monarchy.

When UK nationals are enquiring in embassies about securing an additional or supplementary nationality and passport, this is anything but a functioning state.

Ribs1234

Will Laura get to finish her movie (about the rise of Boris) now?

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So, if there was a consistent Remain in the UK vote after Scottish independence, say by 4% over a year or two (held 3-4 years post-referendum), another independence referendum should be called to remain in the UK?

Back and forth. Forth and back. Yes!?

Really!?

As an independent nation they can hold referenda on what ever they like.

But of course, that's again another bout of strawmanning you've engaged in. You seem tetchy and nervous.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

So, if there was a consistent Remain in the UK vote after Scottish independence, say by 4% over a year or two (held 3-4 years post-referendum), another independence referendum should be called to remain in the UK?

Back and forth. Forth and back. Yes!?

Really!?

If there is sufficient demand for a referendum, and it's a government's job to assess this, then a referendum should be held.

That's what happened here for any of our constitutional issues.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

As an independent nation they can hold referenda on what ever they like.

But of course, that's again another bout of strawmanning you've engaged in. You seem tetchy and nervous.

It's the principle that matters.

What we're seeing is clutching at straws - not something that can exist in real politics.

Again, the Remain side will never accept they lost. All manner of excuses and 50 referenda will be proposed until they get what they want.

All manner of cognitive twisting techniques will be used to justify what is an anti-Democratic course of action.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's the principle that matters.

What we're seeing is clutching at straws - not something that can exist in real politics.

Again, the Remain side will never accept they lost. All manner of excuses and 50 referenda will be proposed until they get what they want.

All manner of cognitive twisting techniques will be used to justify what is an anti-Democratic course of action.

You're a man of principles now?

You're right when you say how you use "[a]ll manner of cognitive twisting techniques will be used to justify what is an anti-Democratic course of action".

robinph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So, if there was a consistent Remain in the UK vote after Scottish independence, say by 4% over a year or two (held 3-4 years post-referendum), another independence referendum should be called to remain in the UK?

Back and forth. Forth and back. Yes!?

Really!?

Absolutely.

If they have a referendum on Scottish independence with a narrow leave victory, then it turns out that the referendum rules were broken, and Sturgeon was lying about a pledge to close Faslane and she was getting paid a few billion for it, and the deal to leave meant that the national dress was changed from the kilt to a Morris dancer outfit... Then the population decided that maybe they didn't want to leave under those circumstances after all then they should totally be given the opportunity to change their minds before it actually happens.

Why wouldn't they be given the chance to change their minds if things were not what they were initially sold?

fr336

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)

via @SavantaComRes, 09 - 10 Dec
Chgs. w/ 05 Dec


Best poll for Labour I've seen.

ancapailldorcha

fr336 wrote: »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)

via @SavantaComRes, 09 - 10 Dec
Chgs. w/ 05 Dec


Best poll for Labour I've seen.

The polls seem to vacillate from a hung Parliament to a small but definite majority for the Conservatives, suggesting that it's too tight to call but I'm hoping for the former.

Professor Moriarty

fr336 wrote: »

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)

via @SavantaComRes, 09 - 10 Dec
Chgs. w/ 05 Dec


Best poll for Labour I've seen.

Sadly, four other polls that came out today have the Tories averaging a 10% lead.

hometruths

liamtech wrote: »

But it amazes me how many times the Labour Party get a free pass

Can i please have some examples of Labour getting a free pass?

When Tories are found to be lying about policy, a digital earthquake takes place on this thread.

At the risk of repeating myself, that thing about zero misleading facebook ads looked a lot like a free pass!

Kermit.de.frog

I think it will be a comfortable majority for the Tories in the end to be honest.

Either way Labour are going to have a dire night tomorrow.

Who's going to succeed Corbyn is the big question for them.

They need to go back to the centre left ground or they will never be electable.

Water John

The odds look like the Cons will get a small majority. Wouldn't be overly surprised if they didn't but that's less likely. But with the margin between Con and Lb tightening in a consistent trend, the polls may lag behind the actual vote a little.
If it is down to 5% then Cons won't get a majority.

My gut however is telling me, they will.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sadly, four other polls that came out today have the Tories averaging a 10% lead.

I haven't a clue what will happen tomorrow night. Neither a hung parliament nor a comfortable Johnson win would surprise me. British politics is so volatile at the moment that you couldn't predict anything with confidence.

sid waddell

If any posters hoping for a Labour "win" are looking for some hope, the Twitter account below has been getting a lot of attention in recent days.

The guy runs it was a poster called Dr. Mibbles on the UK Polling Report blog and called 2017 spot on, including Canterbury at odds of 25/1 for Labour. He's pretty bullish about Labour's chances. His timeline is certainly a very interesting read anyway because he shows all his workings.

The Tories could well still win their majority, but if I was a Tory, I'd have to say red warning lights would be beginning to flash in a major way, especially after that ComRes poll.

If you examine the YouGov MRP on a day by day basis, the trend is pretty positive for Labour. The question is - will they just run of time to turn things around, or not.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

The odds look like the Cons will get a small majority. Wouldn't be overly surprised if they didn't but that's less likely. But with the margin between Con and Lb tightening in a consistent trend, the polls may lag behind the actual vote a little.
If it is down to 5% then Cons won't get a majority.

My gut however is telling me, they will.

It strikes me though that a hung parliament often seems to happen when pollsters are not expecting it. If pollsters were confidently predicting a hung parliament, that's probably the scenario where Johnson would get his comfortable majority.

BonnieSituation

sid waddell wrote: »

If any posters hoping for a Labour "win" are looking for some hope, the Twitter account below has been getting a lot of attention in recent days.

The guy runs it was a poster called Dr. Mibbles on the UK Polling Report blog and called 2017 spot on, including Canterbury at odds of 25/1 for Labour. He's pretty bullish about Labour's chances. His timeline is certainly a very interesting read anyway because he shows all his workings.

The Tories could well still win their majority, but if I was a Tory, I'd have to say red warning lights would be beginning to flash in a major way, especially after that ComRes poll.

If you examine the YouGov MRP on a day by day basis, the trend is pretty positive for Labour. The question is - will they just run of time to turn things around, or not.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone

I read him yesterday. It's very good.

I'm very much of a view that the panicked actions of the Tories, their supporters on here and their media enablers is more telling!

Hung parliament for me!

FrancieBrady

Is there a media moratorium with UK elections?

LATEST POLL RELEASE

Delta Poll showing a 10-point lead for the Conservative Party.

That's more like it!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204884850974609408

Joe_ Public

Just surfing around a few key constituencies like Kensington, Esher, Chingford and a few others, seems to me the tactical voting message is seriously biting through. Conflicting accounts of what difference it can make, but with a late surge i think its entirely possible it could make a very significant difference. Potentially a deciding factor imho.

Kermit.de.frog

Looks like it will all be over tomorrow night for remainers based on most of these polls.

robinph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is there a media moratorium with UK elections?

Yes, they will be struggling for things to say tomorrow. Expect lots of pictures of dogs outside polling stations and then there will be great excitement when a picture of a horse tied up outside a polling station emerges in time for the lunchtime news.

There will also be a few pictures of polling stations setup in the boot of someone's car after the caretaker for the local school didn't turn up to unlock the doors in time.

Mr.Nice Guy

The last week has been a really poor finish to the campaign for Johnson. The photo of the child on the hospital floor, refusing to look at it and pocketing the reporter's phone, wandering into a fridge to avoid an interview etc. You can see why he kept such a low profile in the Tory leadership contest because he's a bit of a walking disaster.

The question is whether or not the run-up to the election will affect how people choose to vote. I'd be inclined to think those who have issues with Corbyn will still have them on polling day, and that will tip the balance towards Johnson. But I wouldn't be as confident in a majority as I would have been a week ago.

It's going to be fascinating watching it all unfold on Thursday with the exit poll and the results. Can't wait.

LATEST POLL RELEASE

KantarTNS now reporting a 12-point lead for the Conservative Party.

Again, positive news for Brexit supporters. May these poll results continue.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204886057415782404

BonnieSituation

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just surfing around a few key constituencies like Kensington, Esher, Chingford and a few others, seems to me the tactical voting message is seriously biting through. Conflicting accounts of what difference it can make, but with a late surge i think its entirely possible it could make a very significant difference. Potentially a deciding factor imho.

Any links you'd kind to share so those of us can have a look at something other than panicked opinion poll results?

listermint

You know what they say the more polls are continually thrown up. The more desperate the person is for them to be true.


I wouldn't take a single poll at face value tbh. Not one. This election has been all over the place and isn't like any before in the UK. There's too much variation at stake.

My money's on hung.

beggars_bush

Listened/watched Corbyns speech earlier

He's a very good speaker. Compared to the other clown.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

You know what they say the more polls are continually thrown up. The more desperate the person is for them to be true.

I wouldn't take a single poll at face value tbh. Not one. This election has been all over the place and isn't like any before in the UK. There's too much variation at stake.

My money's on hung.

I guarantee that if all polls released today claimed a 2-3 point lead for Labour, you would never have posted that.

Itssoeasy

listermint wrote: »

You know what they say the more polls are continually thrown up. The more desperate the person is for them to be true.


I wouldn't take a single poll at face value tbh. Not one. This election has been all over the place and isn't like any before in the UK. There's too much variation at stake.

My money's on hung.

Well every election in the western world there is the phrase during it to take polls with a huge health warning. Polls are useful obviously and provide a hint but the one that counts is one the British people vote in tomorrow.

I feel like that's a carry on film line, but I'll stay away from it.

Sir Oxman

robinph wrote: »

Could do with someone to go along and donate the £500 deposit each to Lord BucketHead, Count BinFace and all the other minor parties in that constituency and get them to all stand aside and get behind the one Labour candidate.

Lord BucketHead etc would be losing their deposits anyway so it's a win for them as they get their cash back, but the combined few hundred votes they all get could make the difference.

Lord Buckethead has already called for that electorate to vote Labour and encouraged his subservient other loony candidates to do the same.


Hail Lord Buckethead!


https://twitter.com/LordBuckethead/status/1203000430709616640?s=20