General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

boggerman1

I see Laura kussenberg is after giving the results of the postal votes out claiming tories are romping home.how is it she hasn’t been fired from the beeb

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I guarantee that if all polls released today claimed a 2-3 point lead for Labour, you would never have posted that.

I would because they're nonsense for the election at hand. The election has too much toxicity around it for any real accuracy.

And individual poster throwing up poll after poll every two posts smacks of desperation and concern. It's like they wish wish wish them to be true.

A neutral would state the facts.... We don't have a clue yet.

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

You know what they say the more polls are continually thrown up. The more desperate the person is for them to be true.


I wouldn't take a single poll at face value tbh. Not one. This election has been all over the place and isn't like any before in the UK. There's too much variation at stake.

My money's on hung.

You can get 5/2 on that just right now.

boggerman1

boggerman1 wrote: »

I see Laura kussenberg is after giving the results of the postal votes out claiming tories are romping home.how is it she hasn’t been fired from the beeb

Well no, she hasn’t, she doesn’t know what the results are because they haven’t been announced yet.

I see the labour twitter machine is in full meltdown over this, but surely it incentivises labour supporters to get out and vote, does it not?

Also, if she has broken election rules, surely everyone that tweeted and retweeted it are also breaking the rules?

bren2001

Deleted User wrote: »

I guarantee that if all polls released today claimed a 2-3 point lead for Labour, you would never have posted that.

Nobody would be reacting to polls in the manner you are. You're celebrating every 10% one and dismaying every 6% one. Its clear the polls don't indicate a Tory majority or a hung parliament, we are somewhere in the margin of error on these. It is dependent on a huge number of factors and might hinge on how bloody wet it is.

Is a massive Tory majority likely? No. Is is possible? Yes, there's a small chance.
Is a small Tory majority likely? Yes, probably the most likely outcome.
Is a hung parliament likely? Yes, there's a decent chance of it.
Is a Labour majority likely? No, it's not a plausible result.

Would I be saying all this if the polls were the opposite way around? Yes because it's not really an opinion but an understanding of rather basic probability and statistics.

(I am ignoring that a 6% Labour lead more than likely leads to a Labour majority for a variety of reasons)

Joe_ Public

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Any links you'd kind to share so those of us can have a look at something other than panicked opinion poll results?

I've just been looking on best for britain and following its Twitter feed. They're finally getting things together i think, like they've changed their recommendation in Kensington from lib dem to labour which wont please Sam Gyimah but should clinch that seat for labour. I think mistakes were made earlier, but they may be getting it together now.

I'm just picking up on random things like Steve Coogan, passionate corbynista, saying he's voting lib dem. I think other labour voters will reciprocate but hard to gauge what level it will reach.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/remain_campaigns_align_ahead_of_election


Theres also this today:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-liberal-democrats-labour-endorsement-rhys-taylor-cardiff-north-a9242541.html

Strazdas

sid waddell wrote: »

If any posters hoping for a Labour "win" are looking for some hope, the Twitter account below has been getting a lot of attention in recent days.

The guy runs it was a poster called Dr. Mibbles on the UK Polling Report blog and called 2017 spot on, including Canterbury at odds of 25/1 for Labour. He's pretty bullish about Labour's chances. His timeline is certainly a very interesting read anyway because he shows all his workings.

The Tories could well still win their majority, but if I was a Tory, I'd have to say red warning lights would be beginning to flash in a major way, especially after that ComRes poll.

If you examine the YouGov MRP on a day by day basis, the trend is pretty positive for Labour. The question is - will they just run of time to turn things around, or not.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone

He makes some very interesting points, rather than sounding like some Labour guy desperately clutching at straws.

If it is indeed a hung parliament, he can take a lot of credit. If not, he got his methodology wrong.

liamtech

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Lord Buckethead has already called for that electorate to vote Labour and encouraged his subservient other loony candidates to do the same.


Hail Lord Buckethead!


https://twitter.com/LordBuckethead/status/1203000430709616640?s=20

The force is. strong.. with Lord Bucket Head

In other news, Laura Kuenssberg has broken the law on reporting postal votes

Aegir wrote: »

Well no, she hasn’t, she doesn’t know what the results are because they haven’t been announced yet.

I see the labour twitter machine is in full meltdown over this, but surely it incentivises labour supporters to get out and vote, does it not?

Also, if she has broken election rules, surely everyone that tweeted and retweeted it are also breaking the rules?

no no - she actually did - sorry i know uncomfortable facts are difficult to handle for you and eskimo - and i deeply sympathize, it must be terrible

But she did

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bbc-laura-kuenssberg-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a9242976.html

https://scramnews.com/laura-kuenssberg-under-fire-speculation-postal-vote-results/

“The postal votes have of course already arrived, the parties are not meant to look at it, but they do kind of get a hint, and on both sides people are telling me the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour.”

See? - honestly its difficult i know - but these are called - facts

FACT

a thing that is known or proved to be true.

sid waddell

This graph shows how the seat count on the YouGov MRP has evolved day by day over the course of he campaign - the trend is good for Labour, but will the trend be good enough?

LeinsterDub

What sort of moronic system has postal votes opened before polling day?

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I guarantee that if all polls released today claimed a 2-3 point lead for Labour, you would never have posted that.

You'll never know I guess!

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What sort of moronic system has postal votes opened before polling day?

A system thar thinks FPTP is democratic.

Joe_ Public

On the tactical voting, i think this is a good piece. Its written by a corbyn supporter in lewes, a senior labour official there. Its a tory/lib dem marginal and he writes about how they've been going campaigning in other constituencies and how he's had to wrestle with his conscience before deciding to support the lib dem candidate. There's a lot of this stuff going on at local level that doesn't get picked up in national media.

https://www.lwbooks.co.uk/blog/when-second-choice-isn%E2%80%99t-the-worst-choice

robinph

sid waddell wrote: »

This graph shows how the seat count on the YouGov MRP has evolved day by day over the course of he campaign - the trend is good for Labour, but will the trend be good enough?

It doesn't need to be good for Labour, it just needs to be bad for the Tories.

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What sort of moronic system has postal votes opened before polling day?

The postal vote does take longer to process as they have to confirm what constituency it's for, might be several in the city but only one address that the votes get sent to, and confirm that the vote is from a registered voter and they apparently also check the signature as part of that. Then once that is done they have to open the vote and stick them in the ballot box for the correct constituency and lock them away until the day.

A lot of that faffing needs to be done before the main count, and as long as nobody is cheating and turning over the papers there isn't any problems, or as long you don't have any journalists saying things they shouldn't.

Capt'n Midnight

Just in case anyone thinks there's been a lot of lunatics in politics there's a full moon in 6 hours time.

This particular full moon has a range of alternative names, including the Cold Moon, Yule Moon and Long Night Moon.

And most of the results will come in on Friday 13th.

But who will be the unlucky ones ?

There is little to do but settle in for a long night of bar charts, ridiculous graphics, and the unique sight of watching politicians’ entire careers evaporate live on stage whilst they stand on stage beside someone who paid £500 to dress up as a bin and get 14 votes.

From An hour-by-hour guide to election night from Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on Slugger.




The seats Boris needs to win and roughly when they'll be announced.

The ones at the top should be the easiest to win.

Might be worth printing out and marking like a bingo card

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

The force is. strong.. with Lord Bucket Head

In other news, Laura Kuenssberg has broken the law on reporting postal votes



no no - she actually did - sorry i know uncomfortable facts are difficult to handle for you and eskimo - and i deeply sympathize, it must be terrible

But she did

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bbc-laura-kuenssberg-postal-votes-electoral-commission-a9242976.html

https://scramnews.com/laura-kuenssberg-under-fire-speculation-postal-vote-results/



See? - honestly its difficult i know - but these are called - facts

FACT

It gets really difficult trying to have a reasoned discussion with the Corbynistas. I really fail to understand the cult like adoration.

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

But then I guess people who believe Jezza is going to give everyone £6716 is a FACT will believe anything.

liamtech

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just in case anyone thinks there's been a lot of lunatics in politics there's a full moon in 6 hours time.

This particular full moon has a range of alternative names, including the Cold Moon, Yule Moon and Long Night Moon.

And most of the results will come in on Friday 13th.

But who will be the unlucky ones ?


From An hour-by-hour guide to election night from Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on Slugger.




The seats Boris needs to win and roughly when they'll be announced.

The ones at the top should be the easiest to win.

Might be worth printing out and marking like a bingo card

Downloaded! Thank you!

Are we remaining (pardon the pun) on this thread or are we having a separate results night thread? il be staying up until at least 4 - genuinely going to be an interesting night i think

beggars_bush

Aegir wrote: »

It gets really difficult trying to have a reasoned discussion with the Corbynistas. I really fail to understand the cult like adoration.

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

But then I guess people who believe Jezza is going to give everyone £6716 is a FACT will believe anything.

It's called influencing the vote tomorrow

She's meant to be a political reporter
Not cheerleader

LeinsterDub

robinph wrote: »

The postal vote does take longer to process as they have to confirm what constituency it's for, might be several in the city but only one address that the votes get sent to, and confirm that the vote is from a registered voter and they apparently also check the signature as part of that. Then once that is done they have to open the vote and stick them in the ballot box for the correct constituency and lock them away until the day.

A lot of that faffing needs to be done before the main count, and as long as nobody is cheating and turning over the papers there isn't any problems, or as long you don't have any journalists saying things they shouldn't.

That's a load of nonsense excuses. P/O boxes or a sealed ballot with the constituency marked on the outside would easily sort that issue. The signatures and register could be checked on the day like everyone else's vote

robinph

Aegir wrote: »

It gets really difficult trying to have a reasoned discussion with the Corbynistas. I really fail to understand the cult like adoration.

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

But then I guess people who believe Jezza is going to give everyone £6716 is a FACT will believe anything.

It's a criminal offence to look at the votes, it's a criminal offence to attempt to count the votes, it's a criminal offence to tell anyone about any indication of the way the vote is going before 10pm tomorrow.

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That's a load of nonsense excuses. P/O boxes or a sealed ballot with the constituency marked on the outside would easily sort that issue. The signatures and register could be checked on the day like everyone else's vote

Yes, I cannot see any reason why officials should be allowed to look at a ballot paper before 10pm tomorrow night : it sounds like a total 'no no'.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just in case anyone thinks there's been a lot of lunatics in politics there's a full moon in 6 hours time.

This particular full moon has a range of alternative names, including the Cold Moon, Yule Moon and Long Night Moon.

And most of the results will come in on Friday 13th.

But who will be the unlucky ones ?


From An hour-by-hour guide to election night from Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on Slugger.




The seats Boris needs to win and roughly when they'll be announced.

The ones at the top should be the easiest to win.

Might be worth printing out and marking like a bingo card

Darlington and Workington the first results, both massive for labour. Could be a long night if both of those were to go down.

liamtech

Aegir wrote: »

It gets really difficult trying to have a reasoned discussion with the Corbynistas. I really fail to understand the cult like adoration.

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

But then I guess people who believe Jezza is going to give everyone £6716 is a FACT will believe anything.

Get your facts straight Aegir - i have repeatedly attacked Corbyn for botching his Brexit policy - that doesnt mean i would endorse Johnsons pure insanity careerism

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

She announced an impression given on results she has been INFORMED about

A - She shouldnt have been informed

B - She SHOULD NOT have informed the public - this is why Dimbleby always waits until 10 to announce the Exit Poll - and thats JUST A POLL!

The law has been broken - she should NOT have done it

Address this point - and dont dodge Aegir, dont be selective - You wanna defend her - fine - DEFEND HER ACTIONS, DONT TRY AND REVISE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON LIVE TV

LeinsterDub

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Darlington and Workington the first results, both massive for labour. Could be a long night if both of those were to go down.

By long you mean painful for Labour i assume? As losing those would be game, set, match Tory

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

That's a load of nonsense excuses. P/O boxes or a sealed ballot with the constituency marked on the outside would easily sort that issue. The signatures and register could be checked on the day like everyone else's vote

The ballot is sealed, but then to the outside of that envelope is the signature and identifying details regarding the constituency and the voter. That all needs checking and removing separately from all the other ballots. Once it's opened though it's exactly the same as the rest of the ballot papers.

If you do that stuff on the count night with all the other ballots then you significantly slow down the count, and have identifying details for voters potentially getting mixed in with the regular ballots. Makes sense for the different part of the processing to be done separately, then the votes just get thrown in and counted along with all the others on the night.

robinph

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I cannot see any reason why officials should be allowed to look at a ballot paper before 10pm tomorrow night : it sounds like a total 'no no'.

They aren't allowed to look at the papers. They are meant to be kept face down at all times when processing the postal votes. Which is why what LK stated was criminal on many levels and by several people before she even got the information.

Once the boxes are opened during the count the ballots have to remain face up at all times.

BonnieSituation

Aegir wrote: »

It gets really difficult trying to have a reasoned discussion with the Corbynistas. I really fail to understand the cult like adoration.

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

But then I guess people who believe Jezza is going to give everyone £6716 is a FACT will believe anything.

You might have more chance "debating" if you stopped referring to people as "Corbynistas".

To dislike the Tories does not equate with one being a fan of JC or even a Marxist. It shouldn't need to be said.

The shock that some people repeatedly have that there's an anti-Tory majority on an Irish politics message board is something I'll never understand.

Joe_ Public

LeinsterDub wrote: »

By long you mean painful for Labour i assume? As losing those would be game, set, match Tory

Yeah exactly, maybe not quite game, set, match as they are very close calls but would be a clear sign red wall might be crumbling. Just 2 big results to be getting straight off the bat, no easing into it with a few safe seats.

liamtech

liamtech wrote: »

Get your facts straight Aegir - i have repeatedly attacked Corbyn for botching his Brexit policy - that doesnt mean i would endorse Johnsons pure insanity careerism

She didn’t announce the results, or is saying something is “grim” before the postal vote closes classed as a result these days.

She announced an impression given on results she has been INFORMED about

A - She shouldnt have been informed

B - She SHOULD NOT have informed the public - this is why Dimbleby always waits until 10 to announce the Exit Poll - and thats JUST A POLL!

The law has been broken - she should NOT have done it

Address this point - and dont dodge Aegir, dont be selective - You wanna defend her - fine - DEFEND HER ACTIONS, DONT TRY AND REVISE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON LIVE TV

I didn’t defend her, I corrected a poster, that is all. You then decided to go i the offensive, which is rather odd to say the least. Maybe I should have written in caps.

So maybe you could answer my second point, if she has broken electoral rules, has everyone on twitter who tweeted and rerweeted that clip also broken the rules?