General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Ramsgate couldn't. It wasn't deep enough.

it managed it up until 2013

robinph

Aegir wrote: »

I'm surprised you believe the hype around that one.

It could have worked if the press hadn't blown it out of all proportion. Unfortunately, it looks like Ramsgate will never again have a ferry service and the jobs that go with it.

It was a pizza delivery company that they paid for the ferry contracts. Was never going to happen.

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

Not quite, no.

The WASPI compensation alone is a gap of £223m per week though.

But the 8.3 billion spent on no deal planning would have put a nice dent in the 58 billion that Labour would like to borrow.

And the WASPI compensation is completely necessary, from a moral standpoint.

ArmaniJeanss

Final IPSOS Mori poll released whilst we were asleep.

Conservative 44% (0)
Labour 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 3%
Brexit Party 2%
Others 6%

Nothing much seems to have changed despite the events of earlier in the week.

Pretty much everything (turnout, red wall holding, scraping home in marginals) has to go right for Labour to do well based on most of the polls.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

But the 8.3 billion spent on no deal planning would have put a nice dent in the 58 billion that Labour would like to borrow.

allocated, not spent.

Deleted User wrote: »

And the WASPI compensation is completely necessary, from a moral standpoint.

I agree, but that doesn't mean it is costed. The money has to come from somewhere.

Bannasidhe

Aegir wrote: »

I'm surprised you believe the hype around that one.

It could have worked if the press hadn't blown it out of all proportion. Unfortunately, it looks like Ramsgate will never again have a ferry service and the jobs that go with it.

Hype?? Blown out of all proportion??
They. did. not. have. any. ships. or. experience. of. running. a. ferry. service.

Here's a crazy idea - if the contract had been awarded to company with ships and experience Ramsgate could have had a ferry service and the jobs that go with it.

But of course the point is complaining that the LP's manifesto is not fully costed when there are stunning examples of Tory government fiscal incompetence is throwing stones in a glass house.

sid waddell

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Final IPSOS Mori poll released whilst we were asleep.

Conservative 44% (0)
Labour 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 3%
Brexit Party 2%
Others 6%

Nothing much seems to have changed despite the events of earlier in the week.

Pretty much everything (turnout, red wall holding, scraping home in marginals) has to go right for Labour to do well based on most of the polls.

Not saying it's going to happen (I think the Tories will get their majority), but things tend to move together in elections.

I would be surprised if the Green Party end up on 3% - it could be under 1% - and I'd expect the Lib Dems to undershooot their polls nationally.

I hate the Brexit Party but will be hoping they get a bigger vote than expected, vote, for tactical reasons. Tories will obviousy be looking to put the squeeze on them though and the front page of today's Times reflects that.

With the way fptp works, I find polls utterly meaningless.

GP will probably return 1 MP. So 3% of the vote really means nothing.
BP may be looking at 2-3%, but I would be very surprised to see them get an MP returned.

ancapailldorcha

I'm actually not too worried if Johnson wins. His party will split into factions once the WA passes and he'll cave once again before the EU.

https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204823113243996160?s=19

robindch

In addition to Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon (aka "Tommy Robinson") and Trump, Johnson has now received the backing of Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, the hardline Russian nationalist nutter who wanted to drop nuclear bombs on Chechnya, strongly supported Saddam Hussein, was pleased at the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko in London and much else besides. It's almost superfluous to point out that Zhirinovskiy is an enthusiastic brexiter.

By your friends, shall ye know them.

https://twitter.com/Zhirinovskiy/status/1205049055686119425

Bannasidhe

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Hype?? Blown out of all proportion??
They. did. not. have. any. ships. or. experience. of. running. a. ferry. service.

Here's a crazy idea - if the contract had been awarded to company with ships and experience Ramsgate could have had a ferry service and the jobs that go with it.

Arklow Shipping, the backer behind Seaborne might disagree there.

Seaborne had been in negotiations with the two local authorities for two years about re-establishing a ferry service.

The government awarded a contract but only once the company proved it was viable, which would make a major difference in them in sourcing funding from backers, it effectively lowered the risk on their investment.

It was a good idea, but the negative publicity scared off any potential investors and collapsed the whole thing. In a non Brexit world, there is a good chance it would have gotten off the ground, but that ship has now sailed, if you'll excuse the pun.

Bannasidhe wrote: »

But of course the point is complaining that the LP's manifesto is not fully costed when there are stunning examples of Tory government fiscal incompetence is throwing stones in a glass house.

it isn't fully costed, that is a fact. There is a £58bn hole for the WASPI funding and that is before the whole nationalisation and free broadband thing kicks off.

The reason the UK is going through austerity is because the last Labour government bankrupted the country. The previous Labour government under Jim Callaghan was forced to borrow heavily from the IMF after they and the unions had bankrupted the country. There is a pattern here, is there not?

There is too much about Corbyn that reminds people of the 1970s labour party and it scares them.

liamtech

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm actually not too worried if Johnson wins. His party will split into factions once the WA passes and he'll cave once again before the EU.

https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204823113243996160?s=19

Yea i would agree with that. I would add, IMHO, once Brexit begins to have real consequences on jobs and the economy, the results for the Tories will be devastating. I mean i could honestly see them out of government for a decade, and like you said, splitting into different factions

The Northern Ireland question is puzzling me, as to what the DUP do. Donaldson couldnt/wouldnt answer the question on how NI will function in the agreement. And Bryson is back on twitter talking about Phase 1 being over, and Phase 2 about to begin

Bannasidhe

Deleted User wrote: »

With the way fptp works, I find polls utterly meaningless.

GP will probably return 1 MP. So 3% of the vote really means nothing.
BP may be looking at 2-3%, but I would be very surprised to see them get an MP returned.

I agree. As I said before after the polls got it so spectacularly wrong in the Kinnock Vs Thatcher GE all those years ago I stopped paying any real attention to them. The one thing I will say about polls is that they can either galvanise voters to get out or induce complacency. Which would be bad news for the Tories.

I do think we could see the Lib-Dem vote implode as Swinson headed a disastrous campaign - I hope not as there are seats where they are the best hope to unseat the sitting Tory MP.

liamtech

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I agree. As I said before after the polls got it so spectacularly wrong in the Kinnock Vs Thatcher GE all those years ago I stopped paying any real attention to them. The one thing I will say about polls is that they can either galvanise voters to get out or induce complacency. Which would be bad news for the Tories.

I do think we could see the Lib-Dem vote implode as Swinson headed a disastrous campaign - I hope not as there are seats where they are the best hope to unseat the sitting Tory MP.

Do you think Swinson will resign?

If the Polls hold up, and the Tory's win with a manageable Majority, then i expect the Lib Dems to have imploded like you say. Im expecting both Berger, and Chuka to lose tonight too, cause they have been placed in terrible constituencies - unless im missing something, they're gone

quokula

Aegir wrote: »

Arklow Shipping, the backer behind Seaborne might disagree there.

Seaborne had been in negotiations with the two local authorities for two years about re-establishing a ferry service.

The government awarded a contract but only once the company proved it was viable, which would make a major difference in them in sourcing funding from backers, it effectively lowered the risk on their investment.

It was a good idea, but the negative publicity scared off any potential investors and collapsed the whole thing. In a non Brexit world, there is a good chance it would have gotten off the ground, but that ship has now sailed, if you'll excuse the pun.



it isn't fully costed, that is a fact. There is a £58bn hole for the WASPI funding and that is before the whole nationalisation and free broadband thing kicks off.

The reason the UK is going through austerity is because the last Labour government bankrupted the country. The previous Labour government under Jim Callaghan was forced to borrow heavily from the IMF after they and the unions had bankrupted the country. There is a pattern here, is there not?

There is too much about Corbyn that reminds people of the 1970s labour party and it scares them.

The reason the UK was undergoing austerity was that the Tories used the international financial crisis (causes mainly by deregulation so loved by Tories) as an excuse to push through ideologically driven policies that had little economic justification, as seen by the fact that they’ve continued to increase the debt and failed to meet any of their targets.

The falsehood that Labour always borrow more than the Tories has been often debunked too.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/11/27/the-tories-created-two-thirds-of-the-uks-national-debt/

quokula

quokula wrote: »

The reason the UK was undergoing austerity was that the Tories used the international financial crisis (causes mainly by deregulation so loved by Tories) as an excuse to push through ideologically driven policies that had little economic justification, as seen by the fact that they’ve continued to increase the debt and failed to meet any of their targets.

The falsehood that Labour always borrow more than the Tories has been often debunked too.

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/11/27/the-tories-created-two-thirds-of-the-uks-national-debt/

so increasing debt is not a justification for Austerity?

Really?

LATEST POLL RELEASE

Ipsos Mori showing an 11-point lead for the Conservative Party.

Poll results are markedly different from 2017, where more than half of polls showing Labour within 1-5% of the Tories.

This time round, almost all polls show a double-digit lead, with the lowest poll still giving the Tories a majority.

Interestingly, a second Scottish independence poll was conducted by Survation (10-11 Dec.). Results are:

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 49%
No: 51%

Yet again, no massive interest in leaving the UK - as many here have falsely suggested over the past month.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205077717454065664

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

With the way fptp works, I find polls utterly meaningless.

GP will probably return 1 MP. So 3% of the vote really means nothing.
BP may be looking at 2-3%, but I would be very surprised to see them get an MP returned.

It's really far better if the Green Party get a much lower %'age of the vote. If I have my sums right then less than 0.1% would be enough for them to keep their one seat in Brighton that they are likely to win, but far more usefully they would then have thousands of other votes around the country going to either Labour or Lib Dem in more useful constituencies. Likewise if the Lib Dems %'age nationally dropped off a cliff it wouldn't need to make any significant damage to their number of MP's but would severely reduce the number of Tory seats.

Just need everyone who's not voting for some shade of blue party to do so sensibly.

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

so increasing debt is not a justification for Austerity?

Really?

Correct.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Austerity doesn't work.

You get that increasing debt is a bad thing, yes? And under the Tories austerity, debt has increased.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

LATEST POLL RELEASE

Ipsos Mori showing an 11-point lead for the Conservative Party.

Poll results are markedly different from 2017, where more than half of polls showing Labour within 1-5% of the Tories.

This time round, almost all polls show a double-digit lead, with the lowest poll still giving the Tories a majority.

Interestingly, a second Scottish independence poll was conducted by Survation (10-11 Dec.). Results are:

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 49%
No: 51%

Yet again, no massive interest in leaving the UK - as many here have falsely suggested over the past month.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205077717454065664

There's no massive interest in staying in the UK by your rationale either!

Chips Lovell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm actually not too worried if Johnson wins. His party will split into factions once the WA passes and he'll cave once again before the EU.

https://twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204823113243996160?s=19

The one thing i'd query there is the line "It was quite obvious from what Johnson said afterwards that he hadn’t understood what he was agreeing to". I think it's more the case that he didn't care what he was agreeing to, and hence didn't bother too much with understanding. Being able to say he had a deal he could spin as a positive at that point was far more important than the content of that deal.

Sam Russell

prawnsambo wrote: »

Ramsgate couldn't. It wasn't deep enough.

Ramsgate was a port for hovercraft, not ferries. It is silted up.

Larbre34

Why the hell do any of these polling companies bother with % in their stats, they are so vulnerable to shock in a FPTP system, just give us the latest seat predictions and trends based on same.

My money in the office sweep is on a Tory majority of 19.

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

LATEST POLL RELEASE

Ipsos Mori showing an 11-point lead for the Conservative Party.

Poll results are markedly different from 2017, where more than half of polls showing Labour within 1-5% of the Tories.

This time round, almost all polls show a double-digit lead, with the lowest poll still giving the Tories a majority.

Interestingly, a second Scottish independence poll was conducted by Survation (10-11 Dec.). Results are:

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 49%
No: 51%

Yet again, no massive interest in leaving the UK - as many here have falsely suggested over the past month.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205077717454065664

On the Scottish part, i wouldnt rule out an increase in support for Independence AFTER Brexit is implimented, especially in a year or twos time - it depends but the argument up until know has been 'England trying to drag Scotland out' - fastforward a year, and it becomes 'England HAVE dragged us out'. Also you have to bank on a SERIOUS mistrust, almost loathing of the Tories, throughout Scotland.

Id be amazed if the Tories get more than 1 or 2 seats in scotland. When Ruth Davidson left - i think that was the moment that Scottish Conservatism went on Life Support. Tonight it might be the hospice, metaphorically speaking of course

robinph

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's no massive interest in staying in the UK by your rationale either!

Next you'll be suggesting that there isn't a massive interest in leaving the EU based on a 50/50 referendum result. :eek:

BonnieSituation

robinph wrote: »

Next you'll be suggesting that there isn't a massive interest in leaving the EU based on a 50/50 referendum result. :eek:

I'm merely extrapolating from a posters' interpretation of what 51/49 in a poll means.

Bannasidhe

Aegir wrote: »

Arklow Shipping, the backer behind Seaborne might disagree there.

Seaborne had been in negotiations with the two local authorities for two years about re-establishing a ferry service.

The government awarded a contract but only once the company proved it was viable, which would make a major difference in them in sourcing funding from backers, it effectively lowered the risk on their investment.

It was a good idea, but the negative publicity scared off any potential investors and collapsed the whole thing. In a non Brexit world, there is a good chance it would have gotten off the ground, but that ship has now sailed, if you'll excuse the pun.



it isn't fully costed, that is a fact. There is a £58bn hole for the WASPI funding and that is before the whole nationalisation and free broadband thing kicks off.

The reason the UK is going through austerity is because the last Labour government bankrupted the country. The previous Labour government under Jim Callaghan was forced to borrow heavily from the IMF after they and the unions had bankrupted the country. There is a pattern here, is there not?

There is too much about Corbyn that reminds people of the 1970s labour party and it scares them.

You have no idea why Arklow shipping pulled out. You claim it was bad publicity - equally it could be they realised the whole idea was badly thought out and backing a company with zero experience was too much of a risk.

And yes - there is a connection. A very strong connection which just a wee bit of research would show you.

Global Recessions.
The UK Labour Party did not cause the oil crises, or the stock market crash in the 1970s that led to a global recession. As I pointed out before, The Irish economy was in dire straits in the late 1970s as well - did the UK LP cause that or did the same global forces ?

Ditto for the most recent crises - Global recession. Yet you want to blame the UK LP. Gosh - how powerful you must think them. They even crashed our economy and here was us thinking it happened under FF.

Thatcher decimated the North of England in the 1980s - shall we talk about the Tories wanting to bring us back to the mass unemployment of those days?
Shall we stop whinging about events 30/40 years ago in a very different world and look at what Tory austerity policies have done to the UK now - or is that too relevant?

Britain Elects have released their "final update from the Britain Elects poll tracker".

CON: 43.1% (+0.4)
LAB: 33.9% (+0.9)
LDEM: 11.9% (-0.7)
BREX: 3.3% (+0.3)
GRN: 2.6% (-0.4)

Conservative lead: 9.2pts

Chgs. w/ 08 Dec

prawnsambo

Aegir wrote: »

it managed it up until 2013

Size of freight and passenger ferries nowadays can't be accommodated. It's only got a 7m depth channel and they started dredging it this year, but then it was put on hold. There are actually no deep water ports in the UK that can handle the type of super ferry that dock in Dublin.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Correct.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Austerity doesn't work.

You get that increasing debt is a bad thing, yes? And under the Tories austerity, debt has increased.

You have to remember that Labour governed through a period when the world economy was going through a massive boom, which allowed them to pay off debt but had to bail out several banks.

The Tories came in in 2010 and inherited an empty bank account, so it stands to reason they had to borrow to fund services.