General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Bannasidhe

robinph wrote: »

Can't believe that I got the timing right, but at 13:10 two pictures of horses at polling stations showed up on the BBC Live New feed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50755004

Not seen a boot of a car polling station yet, but there was a shipping container and a launderette pictured early this morning, along with the other obligatory picture of some nuns voting.

I have see lots of dogs at polling stations - my favourite so far was the Beeb telling us about a famous hound we were about to meet an up popped a photo of a whippet which while technically a sighthound it did make me laugh and think the BBC don't even know their effin dog breeds.

An Ciarraioch

Appears the youth turnout is comparable to 2017, judging by media reports.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Upwards of 45% of voters are opting to Brexit - and opting for the Johnson Deal - in this election.

Firstly, we won't know that number until 10 pm and the exit poll.

Secondly, the side that gets 45% in a referendum loses.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

That's the nature of the political beast when it comes to a General Election.

I'd prefer proportional representation.

In any event, this election may serve to fulfil the 2016 result and, as the public have had 3.5 years to chew over the question in immense detail, have come to the sound conclusion that the direction the country should take is one of Conservative principle and one that opts to respect the 2016 result.

Do you accept though that the Tories losing tonight with their "Get Brexit Done" manifesto will in fact be a rejection of Brexit by the electorate?

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I was with you until the last part. If the Conservatives haven't respected the result for nearly 3.5 years, why would they start now? Many of them voted down their own deal which they are now parading as some sort of triumph.

The May Deal was not satisfactory. It needed work.

Furthermore, the Conservatives could not function in parliament. Johnson was right to purge those who were siding with Opposition forces.

Now, with unanimity from all 600 standing Conservative MPs in backing the Johnson Deal, they have restored political purity within the party and have become a credible party that can go on to govern in the best interests of the whole United Kingdom.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

The May Deal was not satisfactory. It needed work.

Furthermore, the Conservatives could not function in parliament. Johnson was right to purge those who were siding with Opposition forces.

Now, with unanimity from all 600 standing Conservative MPs in backing the Johnson Deal, they have restored political purity within the party and have become a credible party that can go on to govern in the best interests of the whole United Kingdom.

So carving up the Union is an improvement? It's the same deal bar this.

The Conservatives could not function because the British public chose to elect fewer of them.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

So carving up the Union is an improvement? It's the same deal bar this.

The Conservatives could not function because the British public chose to elect fewer of them.

Carving up the Union is what Corbyn avowedly wants to do. A Corbyn-Sturgeon pact guarantees a referendum for said split.

With Johnson, it's less likely. He is not compelled to initiate another Scottish referendum, irrespective of how much noise the SNP makes north of the border.

Third, Scottish independence polls over the course of this election have unanimously shown that the Scots are in favour of Remaining within the UK.

9.19pm here. Gonna sleep soon. The time difference is in my favour today.. See ye all in the chaos tomorrow.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Carving up the Union is what Corbyn avowedly wants to do. A Corbyn-Sturgeon pact guarantees a referendum for said split.

With Johnson, it's less likely. He is not compelled to initiate another Scottish referendum, irrespective of how much noise the SNP makes north of the border.

Third, Scottish independence polls over the course of this election have unanimously shown that the Scots are in favour of Remaining within the UK.

Right but it's the Conservative and Unionist party that have opted to align Belfast with Dublin and Brussels. It's already been done. The SNP will look to the international community for support with independence. Pre-2016, they wouldn't have a hope. Now though, especially given the Chagos Islands debacle, nobody is going to care about upsetting little England.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

9.19pm here. Gonna sleep soon. The time difference is in my favour today.. See ye all in the chaos tomorrow.

Goodnight.

See you tomorrow. Hope you sleep well.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Right but it's the Conservative and Unionist party that have opted to align Belfast with Dublin and Brussels. It's already been done. The SNP will look to the international community for support with independence. Pre-2016, they wouldn't have a hope. Now though, especially given the Chagos Islands debacle, nobody is going to care about upsetting little England.

Scotland's push for independence from the rest of the UK is very complicated, not least because 60% of its trade is with the UK.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Right but it's the Conservative and Unionist party that have opted to align Belfast with Dublin and Brussels. It's already been done. The SNP will look to the international community for support with independence. Pre-2016, they wouldn't have a hope. Now though, especially given the Chagos Islands debacle, nobody is going to care about upsetting little England.

Why would Johnson hold a second referendum when polls suggest that Scots are in favour of Remaining in the Union?

Forget about the SNP for a second. Look to the polls and ask why Johnson would do it.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

Why would Johnson hold a second referendum when polls suggest that Scots are in favour of Remaining in the Union?

Forget about the SNP for a second. Look to the polls and ask why Johnson would do it.

Scots are in favor of remaining in the EU. Scottish independence is about as tight as the brexit vote

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Carving up the Union is what Corbyn avowedly wants to do. A Corbyn-Sturgeon pact guarantees a referendum for said split.

With Johnson, it's less likely. He is not compelled to initiate another Scottish referendum, irrespective of how much noise the SNP makes north of the border.

Third, Scottish independence polls over the course of this election have unanimously shown that the Scots are in favour of Remaining within the UK.

So what are you worried about?

There have been many discussions on this forum about this phenomenon today where your contribution was absent. You seem to have quite an opinion on it. Keep an eye out for it next time.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

as the public have had 3.5 years to chew over the question in immense detail, have come to the sound conclusion that the direction the country should take is one of Conservative principle and one that opts to respect the 2016 result.

Wow, posting from tomorrow with knowledge of the results!

Could you give us today's result of the 3.20 at Newcastle?

A Dub in Glasgo

You don't get a mandate from polling companies, you get a mandate from offering your choices to the people. In the 2015, 2017 & 2019 General Elections, the SNP 'won' in Scotland. In 2016 Scottish Parliament elections, pro-independence parties won a majority in parliament. The mandate is there already and the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are ignoring it

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Now, with unanimity from all 600 standing Conservative MPs in backing the Johnson Deal, they have restored political purity within the party and have become a credible party that can go on to govern in the best interests of the whole United Kingdom.

I predict that this wonderful party unity will last, at best, until the first meaningful vote on Brexit.

Infini

beggars_bush wrote: »

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/12/the-largest-vote-swings-in-british-general-election-history-censored-out-by-the-bbc-and-mainstream-media/

The Largest Vote Swings in British General Election History Censored Out By the BBC and Mainstream Media

This election is seeing the largest vote swings in British political history. But that truth has been hidden by the largest media distortion in British political history.

Let me prove these claims. Certain constituencies have featured again and again in media coverage of the election, to reinforce the dominant media narrative, corresponding precisely to the government’s preferred election strategy, that working class Labour voters are deserting the party because of Brexit.

But if you look at the YouGov constituency model, conducted on a scale 100 times greater than most national opinion polls, and comparatively accurate in 2017, the bigger story is much more breathtaking.

*****************
the above website is an interesting read
basically how the BBC have been concentrating on constituencies where there is a swing away from Labour and not mentioning the place where there is a huge swing away from the Tories

I would say that until the final result comes in that noone should outright expect the Tories to just outright win we could easily see a suprise upset happe at the last minute.

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You don't get a mandate from polling companies, you get a mandate from offering your choices to the people. In the 2015, 2017 & 2019 General Elections, the SNP 'won' in Scotland. In 2016 Scottish Parliament elections, pro-independence parties won a majority in parliament. The mandate is there already and the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are ignoring it

It's the SNP who are doing the ignoring; ignoring the 2014 result.

During the referendum, we were told that it was a once-in-a-generation vote and Scotland, knowing that, overwhelmingly voted to Remain - 55%.

Many polls show the same level of support, one poll last week put Remain at 57%.

Unless we see the polls shift to 60-70%, we should instead do what was proposed in 2014.

Furthermore, not everyone who votes for the SNP is a voter for independence.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

It's the SNP who are doing the ignoring; ignoring the 2014 result.

During the referendum, we were told that it was a once-in-a-generation vote and Scotland, knowing that, overwhelmingly voted to Remain - 55%.

Many polls show the same level of support, one poll last week put Remain at 57%.

Unless we see the polls shift to 60-70%, we should instead do what was proposed in 2014.

Furthermore, not everyone who votes for the SNP is a voter for independence.

Link please.

beggars_bush

Deleted User wrote: »

It's the SNP who are doing the ignoring; ignoring the 2014 result.

During the referendum, we were told that it was a once-in-a-generation vote and Scotland, knowing that, overwhelmingly voted to Remain - 55%.

Many polls show the same level of support, one poll last week put Remain at 57%.

Unless we see the polls shift to 60-70%, we should instead do what was proposed in 2014.

Furthermore, not everyone who votes for the SNP is a voter for independence.

Tory brexit nonsense has changed everything though
Scots expected to be in the EU

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Again, not what I said either.. Do you just want to have a discussion with an imaginary poster? I said Dublin port. Takes bigger ferries than the UK can. Nothing about the routes between Dublin and the UK. MV Celine is 74,000 tonnes. The biggest Stena ferry into Harwich is 62,000 tonnes.

what is this, some sort of willy waving exercise?

How many Maersk Triple E class can dock in Dublin?

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Link please.

No problem, here is the results of the YouGov poll from last week.

Support for independence in Scotland has fallen, a new poll suggests.

A total of 56 per cent of respondents to a YouGov survey said they would vote No in a future independence referendum, with 44 per cent voting Yes.

The figures, which remove people who responded 'don't know', that they would not vote, or skipped the question, show a marginal move to the No side from the 2014 referendum result of 55 per cent No and 45 per cent Yes.

Admittedly, I made a small mistake; it's 56% and not 57%.

Rjd2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Tories will get a lot more than that, they have successfuly harnessed the Lib Dem and Labour voters who put unionism ahead of anti-Brexit / progressive politics

Scotland could turn into a mini Northern Ireland. Fans of the union and those who lean somewhat right voting tories while those who want an indy referendum who you would assume would call themselves lefty voting SNP.

Does make it hard for Labour up there as bar lefty fans of the union they don't have many demographics they could outflank the Tories and/or SNP on.

Dytalus

Deleted User wrote: »

Carving up the Union is what Corbyn avowedly wants to do. A Corbyn-Sturgeon pact guarantees a referendum for said split.

With Johnson, it's less likely. He is not compelled to initiate another Scottish referendum, irrespective of how much noise the SNP makes north of the border.

Third, Scottish independence polls over the course of this election have unanimously shown that the Scots are in favour of Remaining within the UK.

I find it somewhat telling/concerning that you ignore Northern Ireland in your dismissing of the 'carving up the Union', instead only worrying about Scottish independence. You never mention NI being effectively separated from the UK for any future trade deals and customs requirements.

In fact ancapailldorcha even drew your attention to that point, and you still only addressed the matter of Scotland.

Johnson's deal slams a border-of-sorts down between NI and Britain. Does that not constitute carving up the Union, or does only Scotland matter?

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Scotland's push for independence from the rest of the UK is very complicated, not least because 60% of its trade is with the UK.

The UK's push for Brexit is very complicated, not least because 49% of its trade is with the EU.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

It's the SNP who are doing the ignoring; ignoring the 2014 result.

During the referendum, we were told that it was a once-in-a-generation vote and Scotland, knowing that, overwhelmingly voted to Remain - 55%.

Many polls show the same level of support, one poll last week put Remain at 57%.

Unless we see the polls shift to 60-70%, we should instead do what was proposed in 2014.

Furthermore, not everyone who votes for the SNP is a voter for independence.

1. The vote was not ignored, it was accepted
2. Some politicians used 'once in a generatio' as a figure of speech to encourage their side to come out. Once in a generation is not is any statue / process / law for the 2014 referendum. This is just straws being clutched by the Tories
3. A material change happened since the 2014 and the pro-independence parties went to the people seeking a mandate for another referendum - they won it but it is being stymied by those who are, quite frankly, afraid to revisit it

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

No problem, here is the results of the YouGov poll from last week.



Admittedly, I made a small mistake; it's 56% and not 57%.

Your poll is quite an outlier. Firstly, you quote figures that exclude Don't Knows. Your poll, for some strange reason, has double the average number of Don't Knows. It also gives Remain a lead of 10%.

It is very much at variance with other recent polls which give Remain a lead of 2%. Even more bizarrely, your poll gave Remain a 1% lead last August. Something not quite right.

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

1. The vote was not ignored, it was accepted
2. Some politicians used 'once in a generatio' as a figure of speech to encourage their side to come out. Once in a generation is not is any statue / process / law for the 2014 referendum. This is just straws being clutched by the Tories
3. A material change happened since the 2014 and the pro-independence parties went to the people seeking a mandate for another referendum - they won it but it is being stymied by those who are, quite frankly, afraid to revisit it

What material change?

The UK hasn't left the EU yet. And if Corbyn wins, then the UK won't Leave the EU, meaning Sturgeon loses her "material change" and no such IndyRef2 can be called.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

What material change?

The UK hasn't left the EU yet. And if Corbyn wins, then the UK won't Leave the EU, meaning Sturgeon loses her "material change" and no such IndyRef2 can be called.

Exactly