General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

What material change?

The UK hasn't left the EU yet. And if Corbyn wins, then the UK won't Leave the EU, meaning Sturgeon loses her "material change" and no such IndyRef2 can be called.

If Brexit doesnt happen, your correct - technically, there will have been no material change

However the tactics, tone, and treatment of Scotland during the 'Brexit Period', coupled with the knowledge that the Tories will be in and out of power for the foreseeable, will be enough of a reason to have a second referendum.

you may NOT AGREE with this - but those are the reasons for a second ref, and they are valid. Its been demonstrable that the UK is run, effectively, by English nationals -

In any case, in this hypothetical situation involving the Tories losing tonight, the result could be a coalition including the SNP - so they will require an INDYREF 2 for their support

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

What material change?

The UK hasn't left the EU yet. And if Corbyn wins, then the UK won't Leave the EU, meaning Sturgeon loses her "material change" and no such IndyRef2 can be called.

What material change? it is as if the last 3.5 years is the twlight zone?

The Tories ignored the Scottish Government request for a majority vote in each constituent part of the UK afterall the people in scotland were told during the 2014 referendum that they were 'equal partners' in this 'precious union'

The Tories have derided and ignored the Scottish Government request to be involved in the Brexit negotiations

The Tories have refused to recognise the fact that the SNP won the GE in Scotland in 2015, 2017 and will do so again in 2019

The Tories have changed the devolution settlement to keep powers returning from the EU known as the 'powergrab'

The Tories have dismissed all Scottish concerns about how Brexit will impact Scotland

The WAB was passed in the HoC but pulled by the Tories

Brexit is not dead if the Tories do not get an overall majority

Inquitus

Betting markets moving sharply towards a Hung Parliament, though still favouring a Tory majority.

prawnsambo

Aegir wrote: »

what is this, some sort of willy waving exercise?

How many Maersk Triple E class can dock in Dublin?

I made a statement. You queried it. I backed it up. Now it's a willy waving exercise. You've been deflecting, straw-manning and now you're trying reductio ad absurdum. Or perhaps a mix of that and ad hominem. Either way, I'm done discussing this with you.

FrancieBrady

Inquitus wrote: »

Betting markets moving sharply towards a Hung Parliament, though still favouring a Tory majority.

Seeing reports of voting turnout surpassing 1997's 71%.

Water John

Wouldn't think, a higher turnout favouring the Tories. Tory voters would have always voted. Could be tighter than polls suggest.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seeing reports of voting turnout surpassing 1997's 71%.

The rain doesn't seem to be keeping the younger voters away anyway.

whatawaster

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seeing reports of voting turnout surpassing 1997's 71%.

Wonder who that will favour? You would think that means a high youth turnout which would help Labour.

But . . .

What we saw in the US midterms last year was record turnout - both among Republicans and Democrats - both sides got their base out, but independents voted Democrat which swung things their way.

Joe_ Public

High turnout has to be good news for opposition parties. That means normally low turn out groupings are voting in greater numbers and thats a sliding scale working down the age groups. I think we'll continue to see those odds on a hung parliament harden gradually all day. Feeling very cautiously optimistic here.

Infini

Water John wrote: »

Wouldn't think, a higher turnout favouring the Tories. Tory voters would have always voted. Could be tighter than polls suggest.

I agree, the fact that there's been a drive to get people to vote tactical aka cockblock the conservatives might be enough to cause a suprise upset, it wouldnt be the first time expecially considering Brexit and its "Hold my Beer" Sequel, President Troll. Could always see a suprise vote going the other way and the conservatives having no majority. It's all wait and see right now and the real question is can enough Brit's see past the bull and realise the tories are a Trap Party and keeping them out trumps all other issues including traditional party loyalty.

FrancieBrady

whatawaster wrote: »

Wonder who that will favour? You would think that means a high youth turnout which would help Labour.

But . . .

What we saw in the US midterms last year was record turnout - both among Republicans and Democrats - both sides got their base out, but independents voted Democrat which swung things their way.

I think when you see the 'betting odds' changing that their advisers are telling them it is going to be closer than thought.
But I get your point about 'both sides'.

Will be an interesting even. The only choice I have to make is what to drink.

A Dub in Glasgo

Don't forget, most of the elderly Tory voters will not venture out in the rain, they have already voted using the Postal Vote which is why the PV probably look 'grim for Labour'. This should be pushed for more people to use it as people make decisions on whether they will vote depending on the weather on the day, how they feel on the day - a lot more sickness going around during the winter etc. Take me, my youngest son (who is 17 and cannot vote but could if this was a Scottish Parliament election) got the codl the other day, now I have it and if I was not committed to voting, I would probably have left it.

Note to self as you get older - register for the Postal Vote!

BonnieSituation

Inquitus wrote: »

Betting markets moving sharply towards a Hung Parliament, though still favouring a Tory majority.

It moved out earlier on PP from 5/2 to 11/4. So took it at that again.

4068ac1elhodqr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seeing reports of voting turnout surpassing 1997's 71%.

Wait till peak time, 18:00hrs onwards see's heavy cold showers, winds and a real feel of about 1oC pretty much everywhere

Professor Moriarty

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

Wait till peak time, 18:00hrs onwards see's heavy cold showers, winds and a real feel of about 1oC pretty much everywhere

Good. Might discourage old fogeys.

marno21

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It moved out earlier on PP from 5/2 to 11/4. So took it at that again.

2/1 for no overall majority now.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

High turnout has to be good news for opposition parties. That means normally low turn out groupings are voting in greater numbers and thats a sliding scale working down the age groups. I think we'll continue to see those odds on a hung parliament harden gradually all day. Feeling very cautiously optimistic here.

High turnout would be very alarming for the Conservatives - it would suggest that those who they don't want to vote are voting in big numbers.

Mr.Wemmick

Joe_ Public wrote: »

High turnout has to be good news for opposition parties. That means normally low turn out groupings are voting in greater numbers and thats a sliding scale working down the age groups. I think we'll continue to see those odds on a hung parliament harden gradually all day. Feeling very cautiously optimistic here.

I have been feeling optimistic for days.. the pissed off feeling at the tories is so strong it's tangible here in Hampshire.

Everywhere I turn it's been shock at Boris Johnson's behaviour and there's vocal empathy with struggling nurses, hospitals, school kids, food bank use, firemen, police.. the whole shebang.

The papers, even the guardian and the bbc are not showing you what I am seeing/sensing on the ground. And I am in rich hampshire toryland, to boot.

C'mon Labour!!

johnnyskeleton

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

The papers, even the guardian and the bbc are not showing you what I am seeing/sensing on the ground. And I am in rich hampshire toryland, to boot

That would be quite the coup if Labour won in all those safe Tory seats!

Itssoeasy

The exit poll at 10pm tonight will be eagerly anticipated. It's not an exact result but it's close enough and in the past few elections there has been movement up and down the projected result.

Is Labours best bet to have the Conservatives not get a majority and slightly less than what they had by the end of the last parliament, and labour to get as close to them as possible and see how the Lib Dems and SNP do ?

Professor Moriarty

marno21 wrote: »

2/1 for no overall majority now.

Betfred now down to 7/4. Squeaky bum time.

Joe_ Public

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

I have been feeling optimistic for days.. the pissed off feeling at the tories is so strong it's tangible here in Hampshire.

Everywhere I turn it's been shock at Boris Johnson's behaviour and there's vocal empathy with struggling nurses, hospitals, school kids, food bank use, firemen, police.. the whole shebang.

The papers, even the guardian and the bbc are not showing you what I am seeing/sensing on the ground. And I am in rich hampshire toryland, to boot.

C'mon Labour!!

Could easily see it going well around the south. Indications of high turn out bode well. Looking on exchange market IDS is now second fav to retain chingford. And raab on the drift in Esher.

Its in Wales/midlands/north that will settle it. If Labour can limit the inevitable damage it will truly be game on.

listermint

We were getting Polling stats every second post and every page earlier.


What happened.......... did something change?

prawnsambo

One of the many things I don't like about the FPTP system is the anti-climactic nature of the result counts. I really enjoy the whole counting process in our STV PR system. It's like watching your vote do its thing in real time. And going through the counts trying to predict transfers. It's such a good spectator sport. FPTP is just boring.

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

We were getting Polling stats every second post and every page earlier.


What happened.......... did something change?

There are no polls while polling stations are open to prevent ballots being influenced.

Strazdas

listermint wrote: »

We were getting Polling stats every second post and every page earlier.


What happened.......... did something change?

No opinion polls allowed in the UK on polling day and the media cannot speculate on any aspect of the voting.

Itssoeasy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There are no polls while polling stations are open to prevent ballots being influenced.

Strazdas wrote: »

No opinion polls allowed in the UK on polling day and the media cannot speculate on any aspect of the voting.

I could be wrong but I took the post to be asking about voter turnout not actually opinion polls and the like. I'm sure Listermint will clear it up but that is what I assumed they meant.

Inquitus

Strazdas wrote: »

No opinion polls allowed in the UK on polling day and the media cannot speculate on any aspect of the voting.

Aye nothing of note will happen til the exit poll comes out at 10pm, then fast forward til after midnight, 1am ish, when the first meaningful actual results will start to come through.

BonnieSituation

Strazdas wrote: »

No opinion polls allowed in the UK on polling day and the media cannot speculate on any aspect of the voting.

I don't think that's what Lister was getting at.

Leroy42

The betting is basically just people taking a hunch. It is based on nothing concrete. As we have seen here, high turnout could mean good for Labour, or possibly the very people that voted for Brexit that don't normally vote, coming out again to make sure, or it could simply end up being split between Lib and Labour meaning no meaningful difference.

TL/DR, nobody ha a scooby at the moment.