General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Itssoeasy

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well just under two hours until we get the official exit and after months of this mess we may potentially have some idea of how the political landscape in the U.K. will look like for hopefully the next five years.

I can't see the next government lasting five years, whoever wins.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1205213135067480064

so who is going to report James Melville to the electoral commission?

cmac2009

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. Odds, ever so slightly, beginning to indicate a Tory majority.

As are FX rates, considering the slide earlier today it seems like a Tory majority it is.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. Odds, ever so slightly, beginning to indicate a Tory majority.

For those of us not familiar with betting, what has changed?

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. Odds, ever so slightly, beginning to indicate a Tory majority.

They've no way of knowing though without the exit poll. If there was any genuine inside info, Tory majority would be 1/10.

Joe_ Public

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Bookies have Uxbridge and South Ruislip soundly Tory as ever. 1/8 on.

On the exchange johnson has eased to nearly 1/3 which i take as a more reliable guide. Indicating an uncomfortably reduced majority if nothing else.

Water John

Betting odds reflect bets taken.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

For those of us not familiar with betting, what has changed?

The odds on a Tory majority have been cut slightly with some bookies, e.g. 4/11 to 2/5.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

They've no way of knowing though without the exit poll. If there was any genuine inside info, Tory majority would be 1/10.

Indeed but that's to assume that every exit poll taker/monitor is 100% honest. Just a few might be a straw in the wind.

Arthur Daley

This'll be some craic anyway

c.p.w.g.w

When does the counting start?

IamtheWalrus

If the exit polls suggest a Tory landslide, I'm going to bed and staying there.

Joe_ Public

Where are folk gonna be tuning in? Bercow on sky might be the best choice. Probably be flicking but think sky will be default home for next 9 or so riveting hours.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

What is there to understand STV?

Could not be simpler.

'Put the candidates in the order of your choice marking your ballot with numbers 1, 2, 3, etc as far as you wish.'

I know that, and you know that, but an electorate that can't understand "why we haven't left [the EU] yet" that's been reared on a diet of single-MP constituencies, safe seats and the "catastrophic" possibility of a coalition government ... ?

It is indeed an impressively simple system for the voter - and yet remains relatively rare as an electoral process across most modern democracies, many of them preferring to opt for a list system or some other complication.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Where are folk gonna be tuning in? Bercow on sky might be the best choice. Probably be flicking but think sky will be default home for next 9 or so riveting hours.

I wonder...when final constituency results come in, will he roar, "Orderrrrrr!!!" when they arrive!?

Pretty sure many would switch over to Sky for that reason alone. :pac:

sdanseo

Sky News will be worth it just for John Bercow. Special guest all night.

c.p.w.g.w

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

When does the counting start?

22:01, as soon as the first ballot box gets to the counting station.
First result could be as early as 23:00 tonight.

CelticRambler

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

If the exit polls suggest a Tory landslide, I'm going to bed and staying there.

Until the next election?

BonnieSituation

sdanseo wrote: »

Decent point, but the Brits had a referendum re switching to a fairer voting system in 2011 and flat out rejected it. Can't see that being tried again or any government doing it without their approval.

PR-STV or at least some method of proportional representation is the fairest system in countries where there are more than 2 large parties. We should be extremely thankful we have it even if it does make the technicalities of governance more complicated.





It's be interesting to see how the UK would turn out if there were perhaps 200 or so constituencies of 3 to 4 seats each instead of 650 1-seaters.

Thing is, they don't have to have a referendum to change it.

Mr.Nice Guy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Where are folk gonna be tuning in? Bercow on sky might be the best choice. Probably be flicking but think sky will be default home for next 9 or so riveting hours.

BBC has John Curtice so I'll be watching that.

Dyr

I was kind of hoping for Irelands sake that the Tories get enough of a majority to pass the WA but I would love it if Corbyn actually pipped them.

I quite like the guy, he's as genuine as they come. I don't buy his politics and I look at the wall eyed loons like Momentum who back him and despair but he's a decent skin in my book.

IamtheWalrus

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Where are folk gonna be tuning in? Bercow on sky might be the best choice. Probably be flicking but think sky will be default home for next 9 or so riveting hours.

I saw John Bercow on the street the other day. He looked just like.. John Bercow.

sdanseo

It's very likely to be Farage's intent this time around to have his candidates all fall flat on their face. In doing so, they will at least to some extent Ralph Nader the Tory vote, if the Tories lose they will succeed in collapsing the Tory support base, and romp home in the next election or maybe the election after that.

Stupid and dangerous to think he's incapable of playing the long game.

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

I was kind of hoping for Irelands sake that the Tories get enough of a majority to pass the WA but I would love it if Corbyn actually pipped them.

I quite like the guy, he's as genuine as they come. I don't buy his politics and I look at the wall eyed loons like Momentum who back him and despair but he's a decent skin in my book.

Charisma, no. The right political ideology, no. But he has integrity.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

I was kind of hoping for Irelands sake that the Tories get enough of a majority to pass the WA but I would love it if Corbyn actually pipped them.

I quite like the guy, he's as genuine as they come. I don't buy his politics and I look at the wall eyed loons like Momentum who back him and despair but he's a decent skin in my book.

My sense of him too. Decent and driven by his decency. Not normally successful in politics.

robinph

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

When does the counting start?

Depends how fast the 6th form students in Sunderland can run, and if they are wearing running shoes with sufficient grip for running in the rain.

liamtech

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Where are folk gonna be tuning in? Bercow on sky might be the best choice. Probably be flicking but think sky will be default home for next 9 or so riveting hours.

Im actually gonna try and jump between the BBC and Sky News -

Also have to see some of NI results and discussion as it happens

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

I know that, and you know that, but an electorate that can't understand "why we haven't left [the EU] yet" that's been reared on a diet of single-MP constituencies, safe seats and the "catastrophic" possibility of a coalition government ... ?

It is indeed an impressively simple system for the voter - and yet remains relatively rare as an electoral process across most modern democracies, many of them preferring to opt for a list system or some other complication.

The difficulty is the counting, but in single seat constituencies, it is quite easy by comparison.

What is needed is electronic counting - not electronic voting. That was the mistake Cullen made. We could have done with it in the Euros with huge ballot papers with dozens on candidates, and massive number of votes to count.

Well perhaps next time.

Arthur Daley

BBC is the default choice, but could flick to Sky from time to time.

Out of curiosity will look in to ITV at some stage. They still do it, but Sky has kinda eaten their midnight feast

Itssoeasy

marno21 wrote: »

James Naughtie and Emma Barnett on Radio 4 from 9:45 also.

I've normally watched on TV but the fact the Emma Barnett is on the wireless is making me rethink things.

Inquitus

Bit of fun!

https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056