General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Letwin_Larry

devnull wrote: »

Beth Rigby on Sky just nailed it about Jeremy Corbyn saying that he was a bigger asset for the Tory party than he was for his own party.

said it here so many times.
the guy has more baggage than the turnstiles at Heathrow.

just too easy for Torys to target.

and if there's one "quality" that defines Boris. it's LUCK.
the guy could fall into a lorry load of horse manure and he'll come out smelling of roses.

MrMusician18

Nody wrote: »

Well this should turn interesting either way and in a way is actually a generally good thing; there's basically three possible outcomes from a longer term perspective:

a) Dumpster fire of UK economy happens in some form (this is basically the WTO exit scenario without any deals)
b) UK Brexit turns into the death by a thousand cuts expected by many if they do end up with a deal (which by definition will be less favorable than being in EU)
c) UK thrives outside of EU (somehow magic unicorns and trade deals etc. coming from somewhere hand waving WTO etc. which is even more fun as Trump tries to shut WTO down because he finds it unfair he can't abuse other countries as well as he should but that's another thread) / gets a new improved deal etc. Personally I find this highly unlikely and I've spelled out why but I'm always open to be proven wrong.

Option A and B are then strong indicators why all other countries in EU would remain; it's basically what shut up every 'exit party in every country from Italy in the south to Sweden in the north after the Brexit vote and helped prove a strong vote against such ideas. Option C is what the Brexiteers here think will happen but always fail to explain how it is suppose to happen; what exactly these new and improved trade deals are suppose to contain (and why no such deals have materialized to date in any negotiation with any country) etc. But once again; maybe there's something we're missing here and if option C turns out to happen that provides a reason for EU to break up as clearly it's better to be outside the largest trading block in the world and if anything would force radical changes to EU at the very least.

At the end of the day there's a saying about democracy; you get the leader you deserve. US voters voted in Trump (in the key areas with a few hundred thousands votes margin); the UK voters have voted in Boris. Both cases they get to live with their votes and enjoy the outcomes accordingly no matter what they are. But one thing is for sure; the Brexit threads around here are not over by a long shot; that's a topic that will live on for at least another five years if not a decade or more. Hope you enjoy talking about Brexit because it's here to stay in oh so many ways.

I'd disagree. It doesn't matter whether it's a, b or c that actually emerges just the perception of what has emerged. And you can bet your backside that the Tories will paint whatever the outcome of the trade talks as option c.

Reality doesn't matter.

Arthur Daley

CPTM wrote: »

Hopefully the sign of a much greater turnout

Turnout is down 3% so far. Something was up there.

Sardonicat

Bah! Time to go to bed. I'll review the carnage in the morning. I've no appetite to pull an all nighter for this one.

Interesting times indeed

duffman13

Brexit party spokesman advocating a trade deal with a withdrawal agreement at the same time. Thought they were advocating a complete no deal position at one point

quokula

Ultimately it was the support for a second referendum killed labour. Working class English constituencies have proven willing to vote against their own interest, as long as that vote is supported by a healthy dose of racism.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

Well this should turn interesting either way and in a way is actually a generally good thing; there's basically three possible outcomes from a longer term perspective:

a) Dumpster fire of UK economy happens in some form (this is basically the WTO exit scenario without any deals)
b) UK Brexit turns into the death by a thousand cuts expected by many if they do end up with a deal (which by definition will be less favorable than being in EU)
c) UK thrives outside of EU (somehow magic unicorns and trade deals etc. coming from somewhere hand waving WTO etc. which is even more fun as Trump tries to shut WTO down because he finds it unfair he can't abuse other countries as well as he should but that's another thread) / gets a new improved deal etc. Personally I find this highly unlikely and I've spelled out why but I'm always open to be proven wrong.

Option A and B are then strong indicators why all other countries in EU would remain; it's basically what shut up every 'exit party in every country from Italy in the south to Sweden in the north after the Brexit vote and helped prove a strong vote against such ideas. Option C is what the Brexiteers here think will happen but always fail to explain how it is suppose to happen; what exactly these new and improved trade deals are suppose to contain (and why no such deals have materialized to date in any negotiation with any country) etc. But once again; maybe there's something we're missing here and if option C turns out to happen that provides a reason for EU to break up as clearly it's better to be outside the largest trading block in the world and if anything would force radical changes to EU at the very least.

At the end of the day there's a saying about democracy; you get the leader you deserve. US voters voted in Trump (in the key areas with a few hundred thousands votes margin); the UK voters have voted in Boris. Both cases they get to live with their votes and enjoy the outcomes accordingly no matter what they are. But one thing is for sure; the Brexit threads around here are not over by a long shot; that's a topic that will live on for at least another five years if not a decade or more. Hope you enjoy talking about Brexit because it's here to stay in oh so many ways.

Option C seems very unlikely as Johnson is a useless politician and has surrounded himself with hard right mediocrities in his cabinet : it's hard to imagine them making a success of anything.

Harry Palmr

Guardian live blog observation

Andrew Sparrow

Here are some more Labour figures commenting on the exit poll and what it suggests.

There are now at least three narratives about the defeat that are in play: that Brexit was primarily to blame (the Corbynite/leadership view - see 10.24pm); that Corbyn was primarily to blame (the view from remainers and “centrists”, like Seb Dance, Margaret Hodge and Siobhain McDonagh); and that the real problem was Labour’s long-term alienation from its traditional, working class supporters (the view of MPs like Caroline Flint).

Which will become the official story? Presumably the first as long as the Corbyn cabal is in place (as opposed to just JC himself)

hotmail.com

MPFGLB wrote: »

A some good news DUP having a bad night !!!

Source on that?

duffman13

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Turnout is down 3% so far. Something was up there.

That's shocking, really is! Such a hugely important vote in the grand scheme of things and people can't be arsed to vote

MPFGLB

hotmail.com wrote: »

Source on that?

ITV

4068ac1elhodqr

devnull wrote: »

Beth Rigby on Sky just nailed it about Jeremy Corbyn saying that he was a bigger asset for the Tory party than he was for his own party.

Lucky they didn't let that Diane Abbot out (haven't seen her in weeks on the telly box). Last time she started a meltdown, the full-range soundbar started smoking and had to cover all the mirrors with thick cloth to dampen her wrath.

duffman13

Bercow really dislikes Boris by the way he speaks!

liamtech

Hard to disagree with the Mirror - Shocking - but i accept it of course - FPTP makes this type of thing happen

MPFGLB

duffman13 wrote: »

Bercow really dislikes Boris by the way he speaks!

Most conservatives do including Cameron

quokula

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian live blog observation



Which will become the official story? Presumably the first as long as the Corbyn cabal is in place (as opposed to just JC himself)

I mean the factual reality is that Brexit and their lack of support for it is to blame. Whether different self interested groups manage to put the blame on something else is another matter, but I’d be surprised if they manage to.

hotmail.com

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Turnout is down 3% so far. Something was up there.

Showing the uselessness of Twitter with pics of queues at polling stations suggesting a high turnout and people believing it.

I suspect the queues at them stations are there all the time due to lack of staff or something.

duffman13

MPFGLB wrote: »

Most conservatives do including Cameron

True, it's just so unusual to hear them even after a victory like that having a little pop!

Letwin_Larry

poor old Sammy has just lost his big stick, but he doesn't seem to realise it.
boy is he in for a shock.

Couple of birdies saying Tories could go close to 400 seats.

Will the UK "leave" early to give more time for trade talks? I think I remember that possibility being part of the extension. Would be a strong move out of the gate for Johnson.

Capt'n Midnight

Here we go again ...

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/12/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-united-kingdom/

In 1918 the United Kingdom as it had existed was blown apart by a trifecta of landslides; a Tory landslide in Great Britain driven by a three-way split in the centre-left vote; a Sinn Féin landslide in most of Ireland; and an Ulster Unionist landslide in what would soon become Northern Ireland.

With a large Tory majority Westminster can ignore Scotland and NI.

Unless there's a magic money tree the Celts may split from the Anglo-Saxons.

quokula

Tegan Noisy Mulch wrote: »

Lucky they didn't let that Diane Abbot out (haven't seen her in weeks on the telly box). Last time she started a meltdown, the full-range soundbar started smoking and had to cover all the mirrors with thick cloth to dampen her wrath.

It’s so desperately sad that a party can’t have a fiercely intelligent black woman campaign for them because the racist media will make up falsehoods and tear them apart.

For Forks Sake

Momentum, absolutely tone deaf.

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1205238566709800991

Arthur Daley

Results like Sunderland, Newcastle were held for some reason. No other explanation seems likely

NIMAN

If it turns out how they are predicting, it kind of makes a mockery for all these, "lets have a 2nd referendum cos most didn't know what they were voting on" demands.

Leave would have won with a bigger majority.

devnull

quokula wrote: »

Ultimately it was the support for a second referendum killed labour. Working class English constituencies have proven willing to vote against their own interest, as long as that vote is supported by a healthy dose of racism.

Yes Labour lost leave votes to the Brexit Party, but they also lost a lot of remain votes as well so got eaten from both ends by all their fence sitting and if you add an unpopular leader to that they don't have a hope.

The Tories might like to frame this as a straight remain or leave election but really it isn't since there is other factors at play. If they wanted to find out percentage of leave or remain they should have held a referendum that asked that question.

A pro remain, centre left Labour Party would have done better tonight as yes they would still lost the leavers, but they wouldn't have lost the remainers as well. As I said, I don't know a single remainer who voted Labour.

It's looking likely that Lib Dems vote share has gone up a fair bit but because of the fact that it's a first past the post system, increasing your vote share by even high single figures, might result in a sizeable increase of the vote, but won't increase your seat count.

Labour have basically haemorrhaged votes everywhere to every party for various reasons and the swing on the votes so far as showed that the story so far is that the Tory vote isn't really up that much, just the Labour vote has collapsed.

duffman13

quokula wrote: »

It’s so desperately sad that a party can’t have a fiercely intelligent black woman campaign for them because the racist media will make up falsehoods and tear them apart.

Ah Jesus, she doesn't help herself to be fair. Politics rightly or wrongly, is all about perception. The perception of her is awful based on her own performances and interviews

Berserker

duffman13 wrote: »

Bercow really dislikes Boris by the way he speaks!

Most do, I'd say. He'd be an absolute nightmare to deal with. Completely unpredictable.

Arthur Daley

NIMAN wrote: »

If it turns out how they are predicting, it kind of makes a mockery for all these, "lets have a 2nd referendum cos most didn't know what they were voting on" demands.

Leave would have won with a bigger majority.

That was always nonsense.