General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Itssoeasy

So lads I know there are happy poster and not so happy posters tonight after the exit poll(and it is an exit poll it must be stressed) is that people in labour strongholds saw boris Johnson as the lesser of two evil compared to Jeremy Corbyn. I mean that takes some doing to make Boris Johnson look good. It's labours worst GE result for 84 years if the numbers hold. So the titanic was only just over twenty years at the bottom of the North Atlantic the last time labour had a comparable GE result.

PokeHerKing

quokula wrote: »

It’s so desperately sad that a party can’t have a fiercely intelligent black woman campaign for them because the racist media will make up falsehoods and tear them apart.

She couldn't even manage to put on matching shoes today.

Can anyone explain the 80+ "majority" if Johnson secures 368 seats?

I thought that would mean a 60 majority at most.

What am I, and others it seems, missing?

Limestone1

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Corbyn a scapegoat, easy to blame him. I think it was about the bigger picture though.

Have to blame him for trying to sit on the fence when this was an election on Brexit.

MrMusician18

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

it's called DEMOCRACY.
often times it will not go your way, but that is its' strength if you think about it.

FPTP isn't democracy. It's the veneer of democracy.

For Forks Sake

Sunderland Central

Lab win, very reduced majority . BXP vote cost Con chances

Capt'n Midnight

another reduced labour majority , this is looking bad for England and Wales

Letwin_Larry

Brexit Party just handed Lab victory in Sunderland Central

markodaly

My take:

1) Boris made this election solely about Brexit, made up a catchy soundbite, 'Get Brexit done' and campaigned almost exclusively about that. It resonated with people sick and tired of 4 years of fighting and bickering. Whatever your view on Brexit, people just had enough and wanted it out of the way. Voting Tory was a clear cut throat option

2) Corbyn, like the good community organiser he is, sat on the fence on Brexit, even at this late stage, dithering and dallying because he never had to make a hard decision in his life and was afraid to upset anyone. He offered nothing on Breixt and people saw through that. He was utterly shambolic and will go done in history as one of the worst British politican in history. Did nothing to try and win the Brexit ref in 2015, never offered any leadership on the matter thereafter and when this pivitoal 'Brexit GE' came about, he decided to peddle his 1970's style socialism to the masses when it was the wrong time to do it.

3) The Tories are the 'nativist' party, Labour are the 'internationlist/globalists' party. The Tories know who they are now, hence making gains to traditional working class areas of England. Labour are still in denial on who they are. They should be going after the educated, middle class who do well out of the gobal order, to counter them losing the working classes in the like of the midlands.

4) Personality matters. Johnson is a decent-ish campaigner (yes, he is a liar and a spoofer too), Corbyn who was a new shiny toy in 2017 was now lacklustre, old, indecisive and irrelevant to the majority of people.

5) No one wants to go back to the 1970's, apart from a few die-hards inside the Labour party and some young enough to not remember how bad it was. The rest wanted to stay clear.
They should bury the 2019 Labour manifesto in a steel coffin and pour concreate over it, and sink it to the bottom of the deepest lake in Britain, it was that toxic.

I did say, I told you so, some were in denial but there you have it.

6) Soctland Inde referendum will be on the cards over the next 5 years. That will be a big battle in the HoC. SNP vs Con

7) EU Trade and Customs deal negotiting will be interesting....

8) Lib Dems had a shocker, really depressing stuff as they would have been my party, but they got squeezed too much and FPTP does not help them.

9) Finally the end of Nigell Farage??

TLDR
I am shocked tbh at the scale of the Tory Majority. I thought BJ would have scrapped a 10-15 seat majority, leaving things a little up in the air, but this?? Wow, didn't see that coming.
Also, an utter catastrophe for Labour, the worst result in 85 years they just had. Makes it almost impossible for them to even win in 2024, no party as EVER won back enough seats to win a majority following a defeat of this scale. Corbyn and his crew should all resign in the next 24 hours. Anything less would be a disgrace. Momentum with their everpresent wokenes should **** off too. Twitter is not the real world.

TTLDR:
Tony Blair, a man who knows how to win elections, can sum it up.
Populist right will ALWAYS beat populist left.

10000maniacs

Most disappointing. The only thing I can think of is that voters in those Northern Brexit constituencies know something I don't know, that the EU is going to give the UK a free ticket to full trade with the bloc. I don't know, and am confused.
I'm off to bed.

namloc1980

Turnout down in each constituency so far. So much for all the talk throughout the day about a massive surge in turnout.

paulhardman

Deleted User wrote: »

Can anyone explain the 80+ "majority" if Johnson secures 368 seats?

If you add up all the other parties, they come to 80 seats less than the Conservative party alone.

Itssoeasy

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Corbyn a scapegoat, easy to blame him. I think it was about the bigger picture though.

Well considering a labour candidate on radio a while ago said that labour voters for generations where telling that candidate that they wouldn't vote labour with Corbyn as leader that's hardly a scapegoat. He's at fault for a lot of what will happen to labour MPs tonight.

Duke of Url

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

it's called DEMOCRACY.
often times it will not go your way, but that is its' strength if you think about it.

It will be interesting if Scotland request a second referendum for independence which the SNP had in their manifesto. Will this democratic request Be approved by the conservatives. I wouldn’t think so.

So Sunderland Central a continuation of Labour voters that won't vote Tory, vote for Brexit Party.

Mr.Nice Guy

Brexit - in the Westminster context - was always going to be 'won' by whoever was willing to compromise. Johnson compromised on his border down the sea pledge and was willing to shaft the DUP, aided by the ERG. The remainers in contrast never compromised. Couldn't agree on a soft Brexit plan despite all the indicative votes, and couldn't agree on a caretaker PM when the opportunity presented itself. Lib Dems said they wouldn't back Corbyn even temporarily, Labour said they wouldn't countenance anyone but Corbyn.

The DUP could have compromised on a customs union and avoided the checks down the sea they will likely be lumbered with. They could have backed May and got a soft Brexit that would have pleased their electorate back home.

Farage couldn't compromise on his vision of a perfect, clean break Brexit and so finds himself on the sidelines tonight as Johnson takes the glory.

Johnson gambled and decided to stop messing about in search of the 'perfect' outcome. He decided to cross off a red line relating to NI in the hope no one in England would notice - or that if they did they wouldn't care. He's been proven right.

Much like happened in our own parliament a little over a hundred years ago, the future direction of travel is to be determined by those who took the imperfect path, and compromised.

Ribs1234

namloc1980 wrote: »

Turnout down in each constituency so far. So much for all the talk throughout the day about a massive surge in turnout.

Very very wet day in the north of England- not so down south

liamtech

Deleted User wrote: »

Can anyone explain the 80+ "majority" if Johnson secures 368 seats?

I thought that would mean a 60 majority at most.

What am I, and others it seems, missing?

Total seats 650

368 Torys

282 All Others

368-282 = 86

more like 92 majority due to SF abstentionism

Basically the Torys can win every vote by as much as this amount - they have a majority of 86

Or 92 assuming 6 SF's

marno21

Have to acknowledge the efforts by Rupert Murdoch and also to Harmsworth, the Barclays and Desmond.

Convincing the working class to give the Tories a 4th shot at it given the state of some of the places they’re from is impressive.

suicide_circus

i think Irish people dont understand that to plenty of British people, Boris as actually a pretty likeable character - when his name is mentioned people smirk. he is a rogue, a rapscallion.
Corbyn is congenitally dour.
These things have an impact.

Jamie2k9

ITV reporting voter fraud been investigated across Scotland.

Whatever you think of Bercow, he certainly knows his stuff.

FrancieBrady

namloc1980 wrote: »

Turnout down in each constituency so far. So much for all the talk throughout the day about a massive surge in turnout.

Absolutely. 60% in Sunderland is abysmal. Politics is broken.

paulhardman

Deleted User wrote: »

Whatever you think of Bercow, he certainly knows his stuff.

He absolutely does. He's a politics nerd (in the best way.)

Itssoeasy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hitler was only warming up.

Exactly and Edward the VIII hadnt even come to the throne yet. Winston Churchill in 1935 had a good twenty years left to go.

Capt'n Midnight

Looks like they aren't wasting any time on the WA
or Laura's being spoon fed again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2019-50755004

0:06
Tories: Brexit bill could be back next Friday

Downing Street says if the exit poll numbers are correct, there will be a minor reshuffle of necessary appointments only on Monday.

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill - Boris Johnson's Brexit plan - would then have its second reading on Friday 20 December.

Itssoeasy

suicide_circus wrote: »

i think Irish people dont understand that to plenty of British people, Boris as actually a pretty likeable character - when his name is mentioned people smirk. he is a rogue, a rapscallion.
Corbyn is congenitally dour.
These things have an impact.

I think it's telling when people refer to the PM by their first name and the leader of the opposition by his surname.

MrMusician18

markodaly wrote: »

My take:


I did say, I told you so, some were in denial but there you have it.

6) Soctland Inde referendum will be on the cards over the next 5 years. That will be a big battle in the HoC. SNP vs Con

7) EU Trade and Customs deal negotiting will be interesting....

8) Lib Dems had a shocker, really depressing stuff as they would have been my party, but they got squeezed too much and FPTP does not help them.

9) Finally the end of Nigell Farage??

TLDR
I am shocked tbh at the scale of the Tory Majority. I thought BJ would have scrapped a 10-15 seat majority, leaving things a little up in the air, but this?? Wow, didn't see that coming.
Also, an utter catastrophe for Labour, the worst result in 85 years they just had. Makes it almost impossible for them to even win in 2024, no party as EVER won back enough seats to win a majority following a defeat of this scale. Corbyn and his crew should all resign in the next 24 hours. Anything less would be a disgrace. Momentum with their everpresent wokenes should **** off too. Twitter is not the real world.

TTLDR:
Tony Blair, a man who knows how to win elections, can sum it up.
Populist right will ALWAYS beat populist left.

I don't think it will be that big of a battle. The only way back to power for Lab is through Scotland. A much more England centric, nationalist Tory party may see getting shot of Scotland as cementing their position in power in England for the next 30 years.

The only issue is Faslane

suicide_circus

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I think it's telling when people refer to the PM by their first name and the leader of the opposition by his surname.

great point

MrMusician18

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I think it's telling when people refer to the PM by their first name and the leader of the opposition by his surname.

Tony Blair was by turns in the media: Tony, Tony Blair, Blair and finally Bliar.