General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

dfx-

I still can't believe the opposition parties were sucked into agreeing to this election and then played it this badly.

I voted in a safe Labour constituency since 1970 in a safe Labour city and all three constituencies survived with Labour after several recounts.

Majority of 8,000 in 2017 turned into a majority of 200 last night.

They are utterly stupid for it, but they do want to leave and everyone has to accept it...

Professor Moriarty

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Blair?
His legacy is toxic so the last thing the LP needs is another Blair.

Labour hasn't won an GE since 2005, by 2007 Blair had become a liability so he resigned as leader and it has been a catalogue of electoral defeat since - Brown and Milliband were centerists so it can't all be laid at the feet of Corbyn.

Labour dropped 2,500,000 votes in this election with Corbyn as leader. Nothing to do with Milliband or Brown. Labour need a centrist leader along the lines of Starmer now.

But it's all deckchairs on the Titanic stuff anyway. The Tories can do whatever they like for five years.

10000maniacs

Before Johnson starts to drink his cream this morning, surely he must realize that the UK is severely divided and he has his work cut out to put it together again, Like all the kings horses and all the kings men.
An SNP majority in Scotland, an Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland and a Labour majority in Wales.
Looks like the Kingdom/Republic of England is on the way. I wonder would he like to be the one that oversaw that happening?

Dr. Bre

Divided Kingdom...

bren2001

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Blair?
His legacy is toxic so the last thing the LP needs is another Blair.

Labour hasn't won an GE since 2005, by 2007 Blair had become a liability so he resigned as leader and it has been a catalogue of electoral defeat since - Brown and Milliband were centerists so it can't all be laid at the feet of Corbyn.

How many elections have Labour won in the past 100 years? Blair won 3 elections. He's toxic with the British people due to Iraq etc. but his policies is what got him elected 3 times. He occupied the centre left. It's exactly where Labour need to move. They don't have anyone with his charisma (that I can see). A young Tony Blair would sweep up in this political landscape.

I'm clearly a Blairite and New Labour person.

facehugger99

Bannasidhe wrote: »

the last thing the LP needs is another Blair.

3 election wins in a row?

Yeah, they're be much better off with another anti-Semite, trot heading them up.

Duke of Url

10000maniacs wrote: »

Before Johnson starts to drink his cream this morning, surely he must realize that the UK is severely divided and he has his work cut out to put it together again, Like all the kings horses and all the kings men.
An SNP majority in Scotland, an Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland and a Labour majority in Wales.
Looks like the Kingdom/Republic of England is on the way. I wonder would he like to be the one that oversaw that happening?

Isnt the only difference that NI has a Majority Nationalist MPs?

The rest looks the same as always.

10000maniacs

Duke of Url wrote: »

Isnt the only difference that NI has a Majority Nationalist MPs?

The rest looks the same as always.

Not really, Wales maybe, but the SNP is a relatively recent phenomena. And Irish Nationalism was never in this position before.

Sardonicat

10000maniacs wrote: »

Before Johnson starts to drink his cream this morning, surely he must realize that the UK is severely divided and he has his work cut out to put it together again, Like all the kings horses and all the kings men.
An SNP majority in Scotland, an Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland and a Labour majority in Wales.
Looks like the Kingdom/Republic of England is on the way. I wonder would he like to be the one that oversaw that happening?

The nationalist party of Wales is Plaid Cymru, which lost a seat, I believe

beggars_bush

dfx- wrote: »

I still can't believe the opposition parties were sucked into agreeing to this election and then played it this badly.

I voted in a safe Labour constituency since 1970 in a safe Labour city and all three constituencies survived with Labour after several recounts.

Majority of 8,000 in 2017 turned into a majority of 200 last night.

They are utterly stupid for it, but they do want to leave and everyone has to accept it...

there's exactly the nub of it

Johnson repeatedly goaded them into the election and Labour and Lib Dems fell for it.

Infini

Duke of Url wrote: »

Isnt the only difference that NI has a Majority Nationalist MPs?

The rest looks the same as always.

The thing is that England is all Toryville while Scotland is practically an Independence Party country right now and of course for the first time Nationalist MP's outnumber the Unionist ones. Lets face it the UK is polarised with the parts that opposed Brexit now leaning towards leaving the UK in the medium to long term in terms of Independence/Reunification.

suicide_circus

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Blair?
His legacy is toxic so the last thing the LP needs is another Blair.

Labour hasn't won an GE since 2005, by 2007 Blair had become a liability so he resigned as leader and it has been a catalogue of electoral defeat since - Brown and Milliband were centerists so it can't all be laid at the feet of Corbyn.

the vast majority of lower middle and working class British people dont want marxism or identity politics.

10000maniacs

Sardonicat wrote: »

The nationalist party of Wales is Plaidy Cymru, which lost a seat, I believe

The closest thing to a future nationalist party in Wales that is capable of winning anything is Labour.

LordBasil

beggars_bush wrote: »

there's exactly the nub of it

Johnson repeatedly goaded them into the election and Labour and Lib Dems fell for it.

In fairness to Labour, once the Lib Dems and SNP wanted an election, they had no choice but to support it.

newport2

10000maniacs wrote: »

Before Johnson starts to drink his cream this morning, surely he must realize that the UK is severely divided and he has his work cut out to put it together again, Like all the kings horses and all the kings men.
An SNP majority in Scotland, an Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland and a Labour majority in Wales.
Looks like the Kingdom/Republic of England is on the way. I wonder would he like to be the one that oversaw that happening?

On top of that, he's the leader of a party that is still divided. There are very different perceptions of what Brexit means within the Tory party itself.

Johnson is choosing his cabinet on Monday. It will be interesting as that should be a good indicator of what type of Brexit he is going to go for.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

The closest thing to a future nationalist party in Wales that is capable of winning anything is Labour.

Independence is supported by 24% of voters in Wales. Wales is full of pale and stale English retirees. Wales won't be voting foe independence anytime soon.

hometruths

A lot of posters on here around the time Johnson became Tory leader were quite emphatically describing Boris Johnson as a "failed politician"

Presumably nobody thinks that anymore?

Seems to me like his strategy has paid off perfectly from his point of view. Could not really have been any more successful.

Joe_ Public

Havent seen any rigourous analysis of the data yet but did note last night that the one single seat labour picked up was in a constituency with one of the youngest demographics in the country.

There's a dilemma framed there. Losing votes among a demographic that votes in big numbers and gaining an appeal among a demographic that tends to turn out less. Far from the whole story but may have contributed significantly to the disaster and offers food for thought going ahead i think.

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Independence is supported by 24% of voters in Wales. Wales is full of pale and stale English retirees. Wales won't be voting foe independence anytime soon.

That is before a hard Brexit kicks in.

newport2

LordBasil wrote: »

In fairness to Labour, once the Lib Dems and SNP wanted an election, they had no choice but to support it.

Instead of relying on tactical voting, if the Lib dems and Labour had tactically run candidates, they probably would have a majority between them now. A split remain vote between two parties Vs Tories in FPTP was never going to work. Only themselves and their egos to blame.

Joe_ Public

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of posters on here around the time Johnson became Tory leader were quite emphatically describing Boris Johnson as a "failed politician"

Presumably nobody thinks that anymore?

Seems to me like his strategy has paid off perfectly from his point of view. Could not really have been any more successful.

Cummings & crew were clearly underestimated. By me among others.

newport2

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of posters on here around the time Johnson became Tory leader were quite emphatically describing Boris Johnson as a "failed politician"

Presumably nobody thinks that anymore?

Seems to me like his strategy has paid off perfectly from his point of view. Could not really have been any more successful.

He has a long way to go though. It's what happens further down the line that he will be remembered for.

Robert2014

The Lib Dems may have thought they had the wind in the sails with the results from the European elections in the summer and recent high-profile additions to the party. I think it was the Revoke Article 50 policy that was their major downfall. Whatever about the referendum in 2016, to revoke Article 50 and ignore the referendum result without at least having a second referendum was insulting to a lot of people that consider themselves democrats. It was a foolish policy as well as talking about having a majority in the House of Commons. A sensible second referendum may have worked better for them, although may not that much by yesterday's result.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

That is before a hard Brexit kicks in.

It would be a massive leap from 24%. Also, Wales would tank economically if they actually became independent.

suicide_circus

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Havent seen any rigourous analysis of the data yet but did note last night that the one single seat labour picked up was in a constituency with one of the youngest demographics in the country.

There's a dilemma framed there. Losing votes among a demographic that votes in big numbers and gaining an appeal among a demographic that tends to turn out less. Far from the whole story but may have contributed significantly to the disaster and offers food for thought going ahead i think.

not to mention the fact that the young have a tendency to become old

hometruths

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Cummings & crew were clearly underestimated. By me among others.

Yep. I think there will be a lot of people in the coming days realising "Damn you, we walked right in to this"

Bannasidhe

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour dropped 2,500,000 votes in this election with Corbyn as leader. Nothing to do with Milliband or Brown. Labour need a centrist leader along the lines of Starmer now.

But it's all deckchairs on the Titanic stuff anyway. The Tories can do whatever they like for five years.

But they had centerists - Brown and Milliband.
Brown lost 97 seats and there was a 6.2% swing against the party.
Milliband lost a further 29 seats in 2015.

So under 2 centerists the LP went from winning 355 seats in 2005 to 258 seats in 2010 to 232 seats in 2015.

It isn't as simple as saying the LP need a to move back to the centre as this implies the rot started with Corbyn. It didn't. It started at the end of Blair's leadership and has continued ever since.

Laying at blame at Corbyn's feet is papering over the deep divisions within the party. They just don't know who they are. Are they 'New' Labour or 'Old' Labour?

And the electorate don't know who they are either.

newport2

Robert2014 wrote: »

The Lib Dems may have thought they had the wind in the sails with the results from the European elections in the summer and recent high-profile additions to the party. I think it was the Revoke Article 50 policy that was their major downfall. Whatever about the referendum in 2016, to revoke Article 50 and ignore the referendum result without at least having a second referendum was insulting to a lot of people that consider themselves democrats. It was a foolish policy as well as talking about having a majority in the House of Commons. A sensible second referendum may have worked better for them, although may not that much by yesterday's result.

Fully agree. A straight out revoke did not even sit well with a lot of remainers.

And it was a pointless policy to make, because they only promised it in the event they got an overall majority, which was never going to happen.

BarryD2

10000maniacs wrote: »

An SNP majority in Scotland, an Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland and a Labour majority in Wales.
Looks like the Kingdom/Republic of England is on the way. I wonder would he like to be the one that oversaw that happening?

Where do you get that there is Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland in these elections?? Alliance don't identify as nationalist or unionist, so could be counted either way - more accurate to say a 50/50 split. As for SNP, been in the ascendancy for a good while.

Nationalism can often be a bitter, divisive force that concentrates on establishing difference. We've seen it's effects across Europe in recent decades. Not a great future.

Letwin_Larry

tdf7187 wrote: »

The problem with this analysis is that Labour did badly in the largely pro-Brexit seats in the North. So I'm not seeing how Corbyn campaiging properly against Brexit would have changed matters.

my point is if corbyn/Lab had campaigned properly against Brexit during the June 2016 referendum, instead of sitting on the fence as he likes to do, Brexit would have been defeated then.
and as they say, the rest would be .....

corbyn makes Michael Foot look like FDR.