General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

NIMAN

The nhs will be sold of in a piecemeal fashion over many years, and as a result no-one will notice it happening to actually take to the streets about it.

Letwin_Larry

i fully understand that it must be deeply depressing being a Corbynite on this dark, cold monday morn facing into 5 and probably 10 years of Tory rule, your party in disarray, dreams of a socialist utopia lying in tatters on the floor, but if the best Lab people can do is hope that somehow Boris will be incapable of shuffling his cabinet, or that the Yanks will somehow nick the NHS from under everybody's nose, or that by virtue of the Tories having an 80 seat majority they will somehow "auto-combust" .....?

Really? is that all Lab leaning folk have to offer? if the answer is YES then not only are they finished, but they deserve to be.

FrancieBrady

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i fully understand that it must be deeply depressing being a Corbynite on this dark, cold monday morn facing into 5 and probably 10 years of Tory rule, your party in disarray, dreams of a socialist utopia lying in tatters on the floor, but if the best Lab people can do is hope that somehow Boris will be incapable of shuffling his cabinet, or that the Yanks will somehow nick the NHS from under everybody's nose, or that by virtue of the Tories having an 80 seat majority they will somehow "auto-combust" .....?

Really? is that all Lab leaning folk have to offer? if the answer is YES then not only are they finished, but they deserve to be.

I am neither a Corbynite nor even an admirer of the British Labour party of the last approx 20 years but I fully expect Johnson's party to combust before it reaches it's term.

Bannasidhe

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the only people who are self-combusting appear to be the Lab party, or whzt's left of them.

And people said the exact same thing about the Tories when they imploded.
In 1997 then PM John Major lost 171 seats - the Tories won only 165 seats.
In 2001 Hague managed to claw back the grand total of 1 seat to give them 166.
In 2005 Howard managed to gain 32 seat but the overall Tory presence in the HoC was still less than 200 (198).

The Thatcherites and the Wets were tearing each other apart.


3 general elections in a row the Conservatives returned less than 200 seats. Yet here they are in a majority government.

It's a feature of the FPTP system. In 2005 LP got 35.25% of the vote = 355 seats, the CP got 32.4% = 198 seat (Lib-dems got 22% which gave them 62 seats). Peaks and troughs/Boom and Bust.

Calling this the death of the Labour Party is a bit over dramatic imho.

markodaly

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Calling this the death of the Labour Party is a bit over dramatic imho.

Perhaps, but with a group like Momentum at the helm of the party, and the party membership so far removed from their actual base and electorate, its going to be difficult for them to turn it around. Indeed, if the Lib Dems can get their act together they could very well become the party of the opposition.

Corbyn's 'resignation' was atypical of the party and him.
The guy is going to hang around for months, ditherig, blathering and 'reflecting' to ensure the party elect someone in his own image, and will, therefore, remain unelectable.

suicide_circus

sorry if this was already posted but I think Flint's candid analysis is on the money here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzDX2M0HpCE

markodaly

With friends like these who needs enemies.

https://www.thejournal.ie/corbyn-labour-new-leader-brexit-election-result-4935103-Dec2019/

Caroline Flint, who lost her seat in the former stronghold of Don Valley during the catastrophic election for Labour, claimed Thornberry had told a colleague: “I’m glad my constituents aren’t as stupid as yours.”

This is classic labour. They actually hate their working-class base and it seemed to be coming home to roost now.

suicide_circus

markodaly wrote: »

With friends like these who needs enemies.

https://www.thejournal.ie/corbyn-labour-new-leader-brexit-election-result-4935103-Dec2019/



This is classic labour. They actually hate their working-class base and it seemed to be coming home to roost now.

not all of the labour party hate the working class but the largely metropolitan bourgeois cabal at the top of the party certainly do.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's precisely this sort of sneering arrogance and dismissal by Remainers which is why the UK is leaving.

awec wrote: »

Total nonsense.

markodaly wrote: »

With friends like these who needs enemies.

https://www.thejournal.ie/corbyn-labour-new-leader-brexit-election-result-4935103-Dec2019/



This is classic labour. They actually hate their working-class base and it seemed to be coming home to roost now.

Thornberry has form though:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30139832

For most of it, I think it's a disconnect as opposed to outright hatred. Corbyn, nice enough as he seems to be ultimately has nothing in common with voters in the "Red Wall". He has no idea what their lives are like and just took it for granted that they'd vote for him despite various polls showing an imminent collapse.

10000maniacs

It seems Johnson will be taking revenge on the BBC by decriminalising the non purchase of the license fee.
You could see the white in Johnsons eyes and derision written all over his face when Andrew Marr grilled him during the election. I would say that Andrew Neal Youtube video annoyed him too.
I can see now why the BBC were too afraid to challenge the Tories for the last 3 years.
Tory Fascism kicking in already.

Water John

This is a good analysis of the task for Lb by the Fabian Society;
The Fabian Society, the socialist society and thinktank, warned that to win a majority at the next election Labour needs to gain 123 seats, almost twice as many as it required at the 2019 election.

It highlighted the scale of the challenge facing the new leader, saying that to secure the “winning post” marginal seat Labour now needs an electoral swing of 10.3 percentage points, almost three times more than the swing it needed to win the 2019 election.

It said 63% of the seats Labour needs to win are in the north, the Midlands and Wales, while 104 of the 123 seats Labour needs are in towns not cities.

Andrew Harrop, the Fabian Society’s general secretary, said: “The detailed numbers show that Thursday’s result was even worse than it appeared on the night. Our analysis shows that Labour will need to make huge strides in this parliament to have a hope of winning power even in 10 years’ time. A decisive change in direction is therefore needed.

“The party’s top priority must be to win support in towns and small cities in Wales, the north and the Midlands. There is no other route to winning back power. The party must choose its new leadership wisely, by asking who can earn the trust of potential voters in these areas, while not alienating existing supporters in big cities.”

quokula

Bannasidhe wrote: »

And people said the exact same thing about the Tories when they imploded.
In 1997 then PM John Major lost 171 seats - the Tories won only 165 seats.
In 2001 Hague managed to claw back the grand total of 1 seat to give them 166.
In 2005 Howard managed to gain 32 seat but the overall Tory presence in the HoC was still less than 200 (198).

The Thatcherites and the Wets were tearing each other apart.


3 general elections in a row the Conservatives returned less than 200 seats. Yet here they are in a majority government.

It's a feature of the FPTP system. In 2005 LP got 35.25% of the vote = 355 seats, the CP got 32.4% = 198 seat (Lib-dems got 22% which gave them 62 seats). Peaks and troughs/Boom and Bust.

Calling this the death of the Labour Party is a bit over dramatic imho.

Yeah it's something that's been totally overlooked that in terms of vote share, Labour have done better in 2019 than they did in 2015 or 2010, and they're only 1% off Blair in 2005, with a greater actual number of votes (thanks to higher overall turnout)

Their pro-referendum stance meant that vote was concentrated in places like London where they were already very popular and had large majorities, and cost them in more leave areas, where the Labour vote has been consistently softening since the Blair days as the many of the party's policies have drifted further away from their socially conservative voters, and where the most critical Lab / Con seats were at play.

Letwin_Larry

markodaly wrote: »

Perhaps, but with a group like Momentum at the helm of the party, and the party membership so far removed from their actual base and electorate, its going to be difficult for them to turn it around. Indeed, if the Lib Dems can get their act together they could very well become the party of the opposition.

Corbyn's 'resignation' was atypical of the party and him.
The guy is going to hang around for months, ditherig, blathering and 'reflecting' to ensure the party elect someone in his own image, and will, therefore, remain unelectable.

just watched Ken Clarke on SkyNews.
the man talks so much common sense. well worth a watch. in his opinion and that of most others too, the Lab party has been "captured by 1960s lefties". well meaning but totally unelectable.
he feels the civil war within the Lab party will go on for years.
these lefties are so caught up in their own echo-chamber it's fascinating and funny to watch.

the tories on the otherhand just need to keep their heads down and get on with governing for the next decade.

Lefty Bicek

10000maniacs wrote: »

It seems Johnson will be taking revenge on the BBC by decriminalising the non purchase of the license fee.
You could see the white in Johnsons eyes and derision written all over his face when Andrew Marr grilled him during the election. I would say that Andrew Neal Youtube video annoyed him too.
I can see now why the BBC were too afraid to challenge the Tories for the last 3 years.
Tory Fascism kicking in already.

If this is the clip you're referring to - and apologies in advance if it isn't -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBgs6JOdEwE

then I have to say you're over-egging the pudding a fair bit here.

He's a bit dismissive alright, but in a mischievous way. Playing to the gallery and winding up the enemy. Results show him to have judged it perfectly.

So I think if you're going to hang your 'BBC were afraid to challenge the Tories, and here comes Tory Fascism' coat on that hook, you're at nothing really.

Here's a clip I found while looking for the previous one -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8350DcPsug

A sense of humour is invaluable.

sid waddell

quokula wrote: »

Yeah it's something that's been totally overlooked that in terms of vote share, Labour have done better in 2019 than they did in 2015 or 2010, and they're only 1% off Blair in 2005, with a greater actual number of votes (thanks to higher overall turnout)

Their pro-referendum stance meant that vote was concentrated in places like London where they were already very popular and had large majorities, and cost them in more leave areas, where the Labour vote has been consistently softening since the Blair days as the many of the party's policies have drifted further away from their socially conservative voters, and where the most critical Lab / Con seats were at play.

I keep hearing about these "socially conservative" former Labour voters - and you're certainly not the first person to mention that phrase on the thread.

But what does "socially conservative" mean in this context?

There's a fringe organisation called "Blue Labour" who are getitng some traction in recent days - it seems to me they're basically like the National Front in France.

Labour needs to resist something like that at all costs.

Letwin_Larry

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am neither a Corbynite nor even an admirer of the British Labour party of the last approx 20 years but I fully expect Johnson's party to combust before it reaches it's term.

well Francis with the greatest of respect, if your predictions in relation to this are as 'accurate' and 'prescient' as they have proven to be in relation, to the referendum, the people's vote, the WA, Teresa May's tenure, Boris' survival as PM, the election and indeed just just about everything else in relation to these matters, then i have little doubt Boris & his Tory colleagues will sleep soundly in their beds, tonight and indeed every night.

and not just you, but most poster on this forum have been so wide of the mark. perhaps because they tend to come from a lefty perspective, or perhaps it's the nature of social media forums that they become echo chambers, i'm not sure.

Joe_ Public

Caroline Flint lashing out and with a cheap shot against Emily Thornberry to boot. The day i saw her stand up in the commons spitting venom at the eu for the scourge of zero hour contracts was the day i gave up any remnants of respect i had left for her. Always remember watching her on the Andrew Neil weekly show and she always came across well and also as one of the ardent remainers she now clearly despises. As a ploy to save her seat it was probably understandable, but to go full pivot from hard remain to hard leave, in the end maybe the voters just didnt trust her.

LuckyLloyd

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i fully understand that it must be deeply depressing being a Corbynite on this dark, cold monday morn facing into 5 and probably 10 years of Tory rule, your party in disarray, dreams of a socialist utopia lying in tatters on the floor, but if the best Lab people can do is hope that somehow Boris will be incapable of shuffling his cabinet, or that the Yanks will somehow nick the NHS from under everybody's nose, or that by virtue of the Tories having an 80 seat majority they will somehow "auto-combust" .....?

Really? is that all Lab leaning folk have to offer? if the answer is YES then not only are they finished, but they deserve to be.

To be clear, I keep reminding you that Johnson’s current cabinet (particularly the most crucial positions) are not ideologically aligned to big state policy that would invest in infrastructure and the NHS.

So you can post up empty statements or Daily Mail articles to such an effect, but so long as his current cabinet is in place we can reasonably expect their shared ideology to drive policy.

CrabRevolution

A major problem for Labour is that Scotland is now effectively a write off, where it used to produce 40+ seats for them (50+ before the number of Scottish seats was reduced). Up until 2015 the SNP had only gotten in double figures of MPs once in their history. Now 40 MPs for the SNP would be seen as a poor performance. Much like brexit, the genie is out of the bottle in Scotland and much as they'd like them to, Labour can't make Scotland simply forget about independence and start voting for Labout en masse again. That's 40+ seats they used to depend on in Scotland that they need to gain in England and Wales.

The conservatives haven't had a similar tranche of seats in Scotland since Labour really emerged as a force after WW2. They won 12 seats or so in 2017 and it was seen as a roaring success.

In a sense the independence movement in Scotland has benefited from FPTP much like brexit has in England. Almost all independence supporters are united behind the SNP, whereas union parties carve up the remain vote between them and often lose even when the SNP candidate wins 30 or 40%.

devnull

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

just watched Ken Clarke on SkyNews.
the man talks so much common sense. well worth a watch. in his opinion and that of most others too, the Lab party has been "captured by 1960s lefties". well meaning but totally unelectable.
he feels the civil war within the Lab party will go on for years.
these lefties are so caught up in their own echo-chamber it's fascinating and funny to watch.

the tories on the otherhand just need to keep their heads down and get on with governing for the next decade.

I didn't like Ken Clarke at all for many years but in the last two or three years he has really talked with a lot of sense. He's a tory but one of the better ones who is both intelligent and not blinkered

One of my former colleagues, who is Polish had a chance meeting with him around the time of referendum and said he couldn't have been nicer and reassured her that he would always speak up for the likes of her who are being demonised despite paying into the country for many years.

If there were more of the likes of him much of the last few years would have been easier to take. The fact the Lib Dems were proposing him as caretaker PM shows that.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Caroline Flint lashing out and with a cheap shot against Emily Thornberry to boot. The day i saw her stand up in the commons spitting venom at the eu for the scourge of zero hour contracts was the day i gave up any remnants of respect i had left for her. Always remember watching her on the Andrew Neil weekly show and she always came across well and also as one of the ardent remainers she now clearly despises. As a ploy to save her seat it was probably understandable, but to go full pivot from hard remain to hard leave, in the end maybe the voters just didnt trust her.

Pouring scorn over former MP Flint, yet fail to say a word of criticism against what Emily Thornberry is alleged to have said, namely that, "thank goodness my voters aren't as stupid as yours", in reference to how Flint's constituents opted to Brexit.

I well believe Flint. Thornberry -- another Labour millionaire -- has form in looking down on ordinary folk.

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Caroline Flint lashing out and with a cheap shot against Emily Thornberry to boot. The day i saw her stand up in the commons spitting venom at the eu for the scourge of zero hour contracts was the day i gave up any remnants of respect i had left for her. Always remember watching her on the Andrew Neil weekly show and she always came across well and also as one of the ardent remainers she now clearly despises. As a ploy to save her seat it was probably understandable, but to go full pivot from hard remain to hard leave, in the end maybe the voters just didnt trust her.

In Flint's constituency, the Tories got just 427 more votes than in 2017.

Her vote fell by 8,372.

Flint says "Labour didn't listen".

I wonder has she yet considered that she herself didn't listen?

sid waddell

Deleted User wrote: »

Pouring scorn over former MP Flint, yet fail to say a word of criticism against what Emily Thornberry is alleged to have said, namely that, "thank goodness my voters aren't as stupid as yours", in reference to how Flint's constituents opted to Brexit.

I well believe Flint. Thornberry has form in looking down on ordinary folk.

I think the key word there is "alleged".

It is objectively true that a lot of voters are idiots.

But politics is about appealing to idiots.

Increasingly, politicians do that by playing the character of an idiot.

Lefty Bicek

Deleted User wrote: »

Pouring scorn over former MP Flint, yet fail to say a word of criticism against what Emily Thornberry is alleged to have said, namely that, "thank goodness my voters aren't as stupid as yours", in reference to how Flint's constituents opted to Brexit.

I well believe Flint. Thornberry -- another Labour millionaire -- has form in looking down on ordinary folk.

She does indeed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/21/emily-thornberry-resignation-explain-outside-britain

sid waddell

sid waddell wrote: »

I think the key word there is "alleged".

It is objectively true that a lot of voters are idiots.

But politics is about appealing to idiots.

Increasingly, politicians do that by playing the character of an idiot.

That's one of the many reasons why ordinary folk opted to Brexit.

Furthermore, Leave voters are not limited to one demographic. People opted to Brexit across the political and social scale, between and among families. It's not something you can dismiss as "those stupid voters".

I believe that Leave is the best option, but I'd never tar Remain voters as "stupid" because they disagree with my political line of thought.

That's the difference between an average Remain voter and a Leave voter.

Lefty Bicek

devnull wrote: »

I didn't like Ken Clarke at all for many years but in the last two or three years he has really talked with a lot of sense. He's a tory but one of the better ones who is both intelligent and not blinkered

One of my former colleagues, who is Polish had a chance meeting with him around the time of referendum and said he couldn't have been nicer and reassured her that he would always speak up for the likes of her who are being demonised despite paying into the country for many years.

If there were more of the likes of him much of the last few years would have been easier to take. The fact the Lib Dems were proposing him as caretaker PM shows that.

I wonder why you didn't like him ?

He was always more popular with the public than with his party.

Very personable chap when compared to Redwood, Rifkind, Howard, Tebbit et al

Not a very taxing comparison, I know.

sid waddell

Deleted User wrote: »

That's one of the many reasons why ordinary folk opted to Brexit.

Furthermore, Leave voters are not limited to one demographic. People opted to Brexit across the political and social scale, between and among families. It's not something you can dismiss as "those stupid voters".

I believe that Leave is the best option, but I'd never tar Remain voters as "stupid" because they disagree with my political line of thought.

That's the difference between an average Remain voter and a Leave voter.

It is objectively true that a lot of voters are idiots. Hell, there are plenty of politicians themselves that are idiots.

This is a discussion forum.

For some reason you've decided to take on the persona of an actual Tory politician.

I've no idea why anybody would do that on a discussion forum.

sid waddell

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

She does indeed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/21/emily-thornberry-resignation-explain-outside-britain

Taking a picture is "looking down on people" now?

Jaysus, some people are terrible snowflakes, aren't they?

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pouring scorn over former MP Flint, yet fail to say a word of criticism against what Emily Thornberry is alleged to have said, namely that, "thank goodness my voters aren't as stupid as yours", in reference to how Flint's constituents opted to Brexit.

I well believe Flint. Thornberry -- another Labour millionaire -- has form in looking down on ordinary folk.

Did flint actually here thornberry use those words? No she didnt. It was at best third hand, maybe even fourth hand info. Scurrilous to put something like that out in public on such a basis, but likely she knew what she was doing.

Lefty Bicek

sid waddell wrote: »

It is objectively true that a lot of voters are idiots. Hell, there are plenty of politicians themselves that are idiots.

This is a discussion forum.

For some reason you've decided to take on the persona of an actual Tory politician.

I've no idea why anybody would do that on a discussion forum.

And you've taken on the persona of a Labour politician !

It is objectively true that a lot of voters are idiots

I've no idea why anyone would do that after last Friday.