General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

A couple of weeks ago, I was looking forward to watching how the campaign played out and awarded myself the hope that both the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems would break the old Two Party system apart, paving the way for proportional representation and overall reform of the British electoral process.

Now I've moved squarely into the "feck the lot of them" camp. Much as it pains me to say it, I think eskimo is representative of the Ordinary British Joe Soap - completely in love with the lying, cheating, dishonest, homophobic, racist, criminal Tory PM, mainly because he is not Jeremy Corbyn. And let's get Brexit done.

If that's what Britain has become, then let them build their New Jerusalem in the green and pleasant land, enjoy whatever prosperity their biblical overlords allow them, and (hopefully) keep their toxic politics safely quarantined on their own island.

I do feel sorry for the Scots though.

Agreed.

I think the BBC is right when it says that the threat from the Lib Dems was overestimated while the probably of Northerners voting Conservative was underestimated (Article here). I was in jubilant form about the whole thing a few weeks back as I didn't see any way for Johnson to win a majority given that he'd be losing his Scottish MP's and the DUP as allies.

Now, though... I care a lot more about the logistics of moving my gaming PC abroad than I do about the fate of the working classes here if they vote Conservative again knowing everything we now do about what they will gift the US, the shady donations from Russian oligarchs and the walking factory of lies that is their leader.

I would bet literally everything I own including my own body that Nicola Sturgeon is seeking advice about a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. I don't know the in's and out's but it requires international recognition and, given the Chagos Islands fiasco, it would seem that the English will have few enough allies there.

I have a housemate who works in Whitehall. He's been picking my brains about moving to Ireland. He's so desperate to get out of what he calls "Boris Johnson's playhouse" that he's both willing and desperate to pull pints in Cork if it means escaping the Tory party. I doubt there'll be an exodus but I can see a lot of highly skilled people jumping off this sinking ship if the electorate votes to perforate its hull further.

Bannasidhe

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Agreed.

I think the BBC is right when it says that the threat from the Lib Dems was overestimated while the probably of Northerners voting Conservative was underestimated (Article here). I was in jubilant form about the whole thing a few weeks back as I didn't see any way for Johnson to win a majority given that he'd be losing his Scottish MP's and the DUP as allies.

Now, though... I care a lot more about the logistics of moving my gaming PC abroad than I do about the fate of the working classes here if they vote Conservative again knowing everything we now do about what they will gift the US, the shady donations from Russian oligarchs and the walking factory of lies that is their leader.

I would bet literally everything I own including my own body that Nicola Sturgeon is seeking advice about a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. I don't know the in's and out's but it requires international recognition and, given the Chagos Islands fiasco, it would seem that the English will have few enough allies there.

I have a housemate who works in Whitehall. He's been picking my brains about moving to Ireland. He's so desperate to get out of what he calls "Boris Johnson's playhouse" that he's both willing and desperate to pull pints in Cork if it means escaping the Tory party. I doubt there'll be an exodus but I can see a lot of highly skilled people jumping off this sinking ship if the electorate votes to perforate its hull further.

I am also thinking if the North of England votes Conservative then they deserve the misery the Tories are bound to bring them.

Friend of mine - top ranking civil servant with decades of expertise in drugs licencing - is seeking legal advice to claim Irish citizenship. Her legal team's argument is that although she was adopted in England by an English couple DNA proves her biological father was from Cork.
Irish legislation states that when you were born if you had an Irish parent or grandparent you are entitled to Irish citizenship. They are looking at going to court to say that at the time of her birth she qualified and as she was not adopted until she was a month old her entitlement remains valid and is not negated by her subsequent adoption.
She says she's retiring (she's in her early 50s), selling up, and getting out if Boris wins and they can stick their blue passport up their Union Jack.

ancapailldorcha

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I am also thinking if the North of England votes Conservative then they deserve the misery the Tories are bound to bring them.

Friend of mine - top ranking civil servant with decades of expertise in drugs licencing - is seeking legal advice to claim Irish citizenship. Her legal team's argument is that although she was adopted in England by an English couple DNA proves her biological father was from Cork.
Irish legislation states that when you were born if you had an Irish parent or grandparent you are entitled to Irish citizenship. They are looking at going to court to say that at the time of her birth she qualified and as she was not adopted until she was a month old her entitlement remains valid and is not negated by her subsequent adoption.
She says she's retiring (she's in her early 50s), selling up, and getting out if Boris wins and they can stick their blue passport up their Union Jack.

That's abysmal. I hope she gets it.

Yeah, they deserve it frankly. Both parties are going to be obliterated very shortly if Johnsons. The Tories because the Unicorns won't materialise and Labour for losing four consecutive elections including this time against a proven liar.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's abysmal. I hope she gets it.

Yeah, they deserve it frankly. Both parties are going to be obliterated very shortly if Johnsons. The Tories because the Unicorns won't materialise and Labour for losing four consecutive elections including this time against a proven liar.

The schadenfreude is understandable but this ongoing mess will only get worse if UK politics implodes due to fragmentation of the main parties. Given the FPTP system, that fragmentation could open the door to ever worse extremism. From an Irish perspective, it would be nice to munch popcorn and watch as the UK tears itself apart, but that disintegration won't be good for Ireland's economy and stability at the border.

Fr Tod Umptious

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It occurs to me that a possible glimmer of light for Labour might be to focus on Brexit. Though the NHS is the most important issue, Brexit is a close second. The younger you are, the less likely the NHS will feature in your thinking about your vote. Also, anyone with half a brain will already know that Labour will protect the NHS much better than the Tories.

The vast majority of the new registrations will be young people who lean heavily towards Remain and Brexit will be foremost in their thinking. Therefore, as well as targeting Remain Tories, Labour needs to target young voters who intend voting Green or Lib Dem by stealing those parties' clothes. So a strong emphasis on climate change and, most importantly, Vote Labour To Avoid A Hard Brexit.

Actually from what I read in a BBC piece this morning (and I can't link it as I'm on the phone) the opposite is true.

Labour are changing tact, focusing on Brexit and cosying up to Leave voters in their traditional heartland.

It's a perfect example of how Labour are rudderless when it comes to Brexit.

Actually here is the link
[URL="BBC News - General election 2019: Labour to change strategy with two weeks to go
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50580699"]BBC News - General election 2019: Labour to change strategy with two weeks to go
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50580699[/URL]

bren2001

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's abysmal. I hope she gets it.

Yeah, they deserve it frankly. Both parties are going to be obliterated very shortly if Johnsons. The Tories because the Unicorns won't materialise and Labour for losing four consecutive elections including this time against a proven liar.

By who? In reality, it's a two party system. Unless FPTP is scrapped, both parties will trundle along. I think a lot of remainers will just disengage with politics. The other side can lie and cheat as much as they want, face no repercussions and the English British electorate will just vote them in anyway.

A lot of people blame Corbyn for this. I firmly place the blame on Ed Miliband. Lowering the joining fee to £3 invited in the radicals from the left (84% of which voted for Corbyn). If they had just appointed David Miliband we'd be in a very different place.

Danzy

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I am also thinking if the North of England votes Conservative then they deserve the misery the Tories are bound to bring them.
.

They are voting for harm reduction, not the option they like

Labour are understandably seen as a great threat to their individual status, their communities, their society.

It's not down to the voters but down to Labour forcing them to vote Tory.

Labour I think will just never get it, nor will they even try.

Which is a great pity, there is a lot of really great ideas and plans in their manifesto at the least it's in the direction Govt should go.

Joe_ Public

Just watching Matt Hancock on sky. Some eyeraising stuff.

Explains the 50,000 new nurses by claiming they will be increasing numbers from current 280,000 to 330,000. If thats the case, then surely the 31,000 figure they've produced cant be right. The maths still dont add up, matt.

Showed an earlier clip of him denying there had been any formal meetings with US on trade talks, he doubles down and says they were merely "scoping" talks. So dont count then.

But whether you believe the documents produced yesterday provide conclusive evidence the nhs is up for grabs or not, the issue is one of trust and credibility and when i see Matt Hancock stiffen before the camera and declare: "if the Americans will only do this trade deal if nhs is part of it WE WILL WALK AWAY", I'm afraid I'm just not at all convinced. I bet the americans just laugh when they hear talk like that.

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just watching Matt Hancock on sky. Some eyeraising stuff.

Explains the 50,000 new nurses by claiming they will be increasing numbers from current 280,000 to 330,000. If thats the case, then surely the 31,000 figure they've produced cant be right. The maths still dont add up, matt.

Showed an earlier clip of him denying there had been any formal meetings with US on trade talks, he doubles down and says they were merely "scoping" talks. So dont count then.

But whether you believe the documents produced yesterday provide conclusive evidence the nhs is up for grabs or not, the issue is one of trust and credibility and when i see Matt Hancock stiffen before the camera and declare: "if the Americans will only do this trade deal if nhs is part of it WE WILL WALK AWAY", I'm afraid I'm just not at all convinced. I bet the americans just laugh when they hear talk like that.

Susanna Reid was literally laughing at Hancock this morning on ITV. It was like something out The Thick Of It.

The second syllable of his surname is a very apt description of him.

The same people who wrongly thought German car manufacturers would successfully defend Britain's interests against the EU now think US trade negotiators will leave the NHS alone.

Nuts.

prawnsambo

suicide_circus wrote: »

but surely an election giving boris those kind of numbers is an endorsement of his aims to deliver brexit?

Well if you look at those figures, the breakdown is 53% for Remain parties and 46% for Leave parties.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The schadenfreude is understandable but this ongoing mess will only get worse if UK politics implodes due to fragmentation of the main parties. Given the FPTP system, that fragmentation could open the door to ever worse extremism. From an Irish perspective, it would be nice to munch popcorn and watch as the UK tears itself apart, but that disintegration won't be good for Ireland's economy and stability at the border.

I see what you are saying but I neither want to relocate nor do I want anyone here to suffer. However, we all have only one vote. If they use theirs to vote against their own interests after all the lies past and present, the breaking of electoral law and the damage that this will cause to the NHS and the economy then that's going to be their call but in my eyes, they'll be the ones to blame. It's why I'm so passionate about a People's Vote and not the unilateral revocation. We need to either cancel or legitimise Brexit. If it's the latter then they have only themselves to blame.

suicide_circus

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well if you look at those figures, the breakdown is 53% for Remain parties and 46% for Leave parties.

fair point. Brexit got 52% of the vote and isnt being permitted...so much for percentages

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well if you look at those figures, the breakdown is 53% for Remain parties and 46% for Leave parties.

Labour isn't a Remain party; it's a party of a second referendum.

Not everyone who votes Green is a Remainer; most vote purely on Green issues.

suicide_circus

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I am also thinking if the North of England votes Conservative then they deserve the misery the Tories are bound to bring them.

The working class letting the Labour Party down. Again!

Bannasidhe

Danzy wrote: »

Labour are understandably seen as a great threat to their individual status, their communities, their society.

.

It's not understandable.
It's mind boggling.

Thatcher decimated the North of England. Entire communities destroyed when the pits were closed and no alternative was put in place.
Tory austerity policies continued what she started.

Sheffield was once synonymous with steel. Now it's main employers are 2 universities, the NHS, and civil/public service.

Labour is no threat to Northern communities, The EU has been propping up Northern communities with investment.

The Tories have proven themselves to not only not give a flying about Northern communities but to actively do them great harm. Voting for the Tories is voting for more of the same - but without the EU to provide investment.

You might be able to understand it. I never will.

Bannasidhe

suicide_circus wrote: »

The working class letting the Labour Party down. Again!

The working class voting to keep the boots of their so-called 'betters' firmly on their necks to be more correct.

In the Blair Years the LP abandoned the Working class, now finally the LP again has a leader who won't - but they want the posh boys in charge?!?

bren2001

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour isn't a Remain party; it's a party of a second referendum.

Not everyone who votes Green is a Remainer; most vote purely on Green issues.

And not everyone who votes for the Conservatives is pro-Leave.

Ultimately, the argument of whether the "will of the people" is pro-Remain/Leave is utterly irrelevant. There are plenty of polls that show is actually quite close and more than likely leans Remain. If Boris is elected, Brexit will more than likely happen at some point next year. That's all that matters.

I don't for a second believe that Britain will be fully out by the end of 2020 (by fully out I mean a negotiated trade deal and an end to the transition period). That could take a good bit longer. I doubt fisheries will be wrapped up by then.

Labour are projected to secure 211 seats.

It is, now I believe, literally impossible for them to turn things around.

May's dismal performance was accurately projected by the same poll, at the same time before the 2017 election - and proved right.

At 359 seats, even if Labour dig in, the Tories should still come out with some form of a majority.

At this stage, the question is how big the majority will be. It's now a question of scale.

Joe_ Public

bren2001 wrote: »

By who? In reality, it's a two party system. Unless FPTP is scrapped, both parties will trundle along. I think a lot of remainers will just disengage with politics. The other side can lie and cheat as much as they want, face no repercussions and the English British electorate will just vote them in anyway.

A lot of people blame Corbyn for this. I firmly place the blame on Ed Miliband. Lowering the joining fee to £3 invited in the radicals from the left (84% of which voted for Corbyn). If they had just appointed David Miliband we'd be in a very different place.

I agree on basic points there. Becoming harder and harder to see sense of fptp when you see the cracks opening up in main parties. How many parties across europe go into governments with 300+ representatives trying to hold a fraught consensus?

Not sold on the idea of David Miliband though. When i see stories like the below, I'm inclined to be of opinion labour dodged that particular bullet, brings new meaning to the new labour dictum about being "intensely relaxed" with people getting filthy rich.

https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/david-miliband-slammed-for-salary-of-nearly-1-million-as-charity-boss-1.917061

Danzy

Bannasidhe wrote: »

You might be able to understand it. I never will.

I suspect not.

Nor will Labour. So They will lock themselves to decade or two more in opposition.

This is not confined to Britain, all across Europe Left wing parties are falling in to electoral irrelevance where even a few years ago they were serious contenders for Govt.

This is not a call for Blairism.

ancapailldorcha

bren2001 wrote: »

By who? In reality, it's a two party system. Unless FPTP is scrapped, both parties will trundle along. I think a lot of remainers will just disengage with politics. The other side can lie and cheat as much as they want, face no repercussions and the English British electorate will just vote them in anyway.

A lot of people blame Corbyn for this. I firmly place the blame on Ed Miliband. Lowering the joining fee to £3 invited in the radicals from the left (84% of which voted for Corbyn). If they had just appointed David Miliband we'd be in a very different place.

Reality will force a paradigm shift. Both parties are uneasy coalitions that have grown far too big by necessity due to FPTP. The Tories's disaster capitalist Brexit will inflict a lot more suffering on this country than austerity ever did while the left will blame Labour for its failure. Many voters will disengage but I suspect that things will get plenty worse and neither party will support voting reform.

suicide_circus

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The working class voting to keep the boots of their so-called 'betters' firmly on their necks to be more correct.

In the Blair Years the LP abandoned the Working class, now finally the LP again has a leader who won't - but they want the posh boys in charge?!?

Yes i think the ghost of Blair still looms large. Every government since has been more or less Blairite. The identity politics thing focusing on race and gender etc i think is partially driven by the working class not playing ball.

ArmaniJeanss

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour are projected to secure 211 seats.

It is, now I believe, literally impossible for them to turn things around.

May's dismal performance was accurately projected by the same poll, at the same time before the 2017 election - and proved right.

At 359 seats, even if Labour dig in, the Tories should still come out with some form of a majority.

At this stage, the question is how big the majority will be. It's now a question of scale.

It may not matter in the end, but the BIB is not correct.
The 2017 MRP was a week later, 9 days before the election whilst this one is 15 days beforehand.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It may not matter in the end, but the BIB is not correct.
The 2017 MRP was a week later, 9 days before the election whilst this one is 15 days beforehand.

That's splitting hairs.

6 days out is not going to produce a dramatic shift in favour of Labour.

Danzy

[\Quote] partially driven by the working class not playing ball.[/QUOTE]

People talking about a "working class analysis" but who weren't working class, wouldn't listen to working-class people and get very sour when contradicted or disagreed with.

Joe_ Public

suicide_circus wrote: »

Yes i think the ghost of Blair still looms large. Every government since has been more or less Blairite. The identity politics thing focusing on race and gender etc i think is partially driven by the working class not playing ball.

Leaving aside the obvious calamity of iraq, the biggest stain against blairism was the sharp increase in the gap between rich and poor under its watch and that, i think, is a big factor in the northern swing from labour over brexit. Kind of ironic given that key new labour figures like blair himself and Mandelson were mps for northern constituencies.

Sam Russell

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i think 86 year old Molly from Hampshire sums up perfectly just how frustrated many of the UK electorate are with the "choice" they now have.
will it be "The RedMan who hates Jewish people, or the Bufoon with short shirts?". Brillant Molly!

https://news.sky.com/video/i-call-him-buffoon-voter-unhappy-with-pm-11871833

on a slightly more serious note the IFS has rubbished both Tory & Lab party manifestos as not credible. Is anybody surprised?

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-live-ifs-delivers-verdict-on-election-manifestos-11872231

She is quoting Daily Mail sound bites, reducing the voting question to irrelevancies.

If that is the level of political discourse in the UK, then they will get all that they deserve.

sid waddell

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's not understandable.
It's mind boggling.

Thatcher decimated the North of England. Entire communities destroyed when the pits were closed and no alternative was put in place.
Tory austerity policies continued what she started.

Sheffield was once synonymous with steel. Now it's main employers are 2 universities, the NHS, and civil/public service.

Labour is no threat to Northern communities, The EU has been propping up Northern communities with investment.

The Tories have proven themselves to not only not give a flying about Northern communities but to actively do them great harm. Voting for the Tories is voting for more of the same - but without the EU to provide investment.

You might be able to understand it. I never will.

Brexit is an asset stripping project.

Electorally it's an Americanisation of Britain project.

Midlands and Northern marginals are being transformed in a similar manner to de-industrialised areas of the US mid-west.

You do that by appealing to "culture" and nationalism and tell people they're losing their "status" because of foreigners.

It's easier to do that when you have destroyed communities. You make the implied claim that you want to bring back a sense of community, when you don't.

You appeal to the very sense of economic individualism, atomisation and desperation that was engendered in the decades after these communities went into serious decline, to destroy them even more.

You manipulate the media and the narrative to get people to vote against their own interests.

There's a thing called strategic relativism. Even if you're losing, if others are losing more, you think you're winning. That was a key appeal in the US in stereotypical Trump-supporting areas, and was a key appeal in Brexit and is now a key appeal for the Tories' in midlands and northern marginals.

Most people in Stoke or Grimsby don't really think they're winning because of Brexit. They're pissed off because they don't see much future for their areas, but if they vote Tory/Brexit, they think they're "sticking it to the man". They aren't.

Democracy is an eco-system and political technologists cannot do any of this without widespread media acquiescence and unregulated social media.

The Tories and the Brexiteers adopted the fake clothes of "outsiders" and "anti-elitism", when they are the ultimate insiders and elitists.

It's a massive power grab and con job by the rich.

Professor Moriarty

sid waddell wrote: »

Brexit is an asset stripping project.

Electorally it's an Americanisation of Britain project.

Midlands and Northern marginals are being transformed in a similar manner to de-industrialised areas of the US mid-west.

You do that by appealing to "culture" and nationalism and tell people they're losing their "status" because of foreigners.

It's easier to do that when you have destroyed communities. You make the implied claim that you want to bring back a sense of community, when you don't.

You appeal to the very sense of economic individualism, atomisation and desperation that was engendered in the decades after these communities went into serious decline, to destroy them even more.

You manipulate the media and the narrative to get people to vote against their own interests.

There's a thing called strategic relativism. Even if you're losing, if others are losing more, you think you're winning. That was a key appeal in the US in stereotypical Trump-supporting areas, and was a key appeal in Brexit and is now a key appeal for the Tories' in midlands and northern marginals.

Most people in Stoke or Grimsby don't really think they're winning because of Brexit. They're pissed off because they don't see much future for their areas, but if they vote Tory/Brexit, they think they're "sticking it to the man". They aren't.

Democracy is an eco-system and political technologists cannot do any of this without widespread media acquiescence and unregulated social media.

The Tories and the Brexiteers adopted the fake clothes of "outsiders" and "anti-elitism", when they are the ultimate insiders and elitists.

It's a massive power grab and con job by the rich.

Excellent post.

markodaly

Bannasidhe wrote: »

In the Blair Years the LP abandoned the Working class, now finally the LP again has a leader who won't - but they want the posh boys in charge?!?

How so?

This is actually a very compelling comment. The one thing true labour supporters hate more than the Tories is Tony Blair and 'New' Labour. Even though he won 3 elections. There is a lesson there, but yes, stick with Corbyn he will win that election at some stage.

Tell me this, if the YouGov poll manifests itself to be true, should Corbyn step down?