General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Conservative Party far more popular in Scotland than the Labour Party.

One word - Unionism

The Labour Party signed it's death warrant in 2013-14 when it headed up the No side (in bed with the Tories)

Fr Tod Umptious

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Agreed.

I think the BBC is right when it says that the threat from the Lib Dems was overestimated while the probably of Northerners voting Conservative was underestimated (Article here). I was in jubilant form about the whole thing a few weeks back as I didn't see any way for Johnson to win a majority given that he'd be losing his Scottish MP's and the DUP as allies.

Now, though... I care a lot more about the logistics of moving my gaming PC abroad than I do about the fate of the working classes here if they vote Conservative again knowing everything we now do about what they will gift the US, the shady donations from Russian oligarchs and the walking factory of lies that is their leader.

I would bet literally everything I own including my own body that Nicola Sturgeon is seeking advice about a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. I don't know the in's and out's but it requires international recognition and, given the Chagos Islands fiasco, it would seem that the English will have few enough allies there.

I have a housemate who works in Whitehall. He's been picking my brains about moving to Ireland. He's so desperate to get out of what he calls "Boris Johnson's playhouse" that he's both willing and desperate to pull pints in Cork if it means escaping the Tory party. I doubt there'll be an exodus but I can see a lot of highly skilled people jumping off this sinking ship if the electorate votes to perforate its hull further.

Sturgeon making a UDI would be way off the charts, things would go into full crisis mode if she were to do that.

What normal right mined people anywhere would be able to support such a move ?

We hear a lot of bluster from Scots about then not voting for Brexit and how it was undemocratic etc, but a UDI would put Brexit in the ha'penny place.

I doubt anyone in the EU would be in support of such a move.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

If you were to believe posters here over the past few weeks, you'd think independence would be at 80+%.

Yet again, I turn out to be right - and many here turn out to be wrong.

You do talk some amount of

I bet you will not be able to provide any evidence of this

ancapailldorcha

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Sturgeon making a UDI would be way off the charts, things would go into full crisis mode if she were to do that.

What normal right mined people anywhere would be able to support such a move ?

We hear a lot of bluster from Scots about then not voting for Brexit and how it was undemocratic etc, but a UDI would put Brexit in the ha'penny place.

I doubt anyone in the EU would be in support of such a move.

If Johnson refuses to grant another Independence referendum then she has no other choice.

I don't think that anyone in the EU will care to be honest. Post-Brexit Britain will export the highly skilled service providers that are its best assets and we've already seen the UK's allies abstain or vote against it over the Chagos Islands dispute. The UK is only going to dwindle in importance after Brexit so any hurdles will shrink over time. I'd much rather a democratic referendum but the Conservatives have shown again and again their contempt for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

All we have to go on is recent precedent. The British government has always been in total control of immigration from outside the EU and they have allowed it to surpass migration from inside the EU despite non-EU migrants have to go through more hoops. Therefore it seems unlikely that any decline in EU migration will be down to any action the Tory party takes beyond making Britain a less desirable place to live.

I share your condemnation of the CP under Cameron et al. - but we now have Johnson (a Leaver) and what will be a pro-Brexit majority administration.

So, when you ask why things might be different; I think those fundamental changes will make all the difference.

Basically, the Conservative Party is slowly metamorphosing into the Brexit Party whereas previously, the CP under Cameron was, relatively speaking, very little different to New Labour.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Sturgeon making a UDI would be way off the charts, things would go into full crisis mode if she were to do that.

What normal right mined people anywhere would be able to support such a move ?

We hear a lot of bluster from Scots about then not voting for Brexit and how it was undemocratic etc, but a UDI would put Brexit in the ha'penny place.

I doubt anyone in the EU would be in support of such a move.

Sturgeon will not declare UDI although there will be a court case if the next UK Govt continues to stymie Scottish democracy

Strazdas

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

New Scottish only poll out today (Ipsos-Mori)

SNP 44%
Conservatives 26%
Labour 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 2%

Seat projection: SNP 48 (+13), Conservatives 6 (-7), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Labour 1 (-6)

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 50%
No 50%


https://twitter.com/Emily_IpsosMORI/status/1200029338139340801

I'm convinced Scotland will leave the UK if Johnson gets a majority - he will take them out of the EU and it will become evident to everyone that he doesn't a flying fig about Scotland and the Scottish people.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If Johnson refuses to grant another Independence referendum then she has no other choice.

Of all the most unlikely and unrealistic statements I've seen on this thread, that has to top them all - by a country mile.

There is absolutely no way - with a 50:50 electorate - that Nicola Sturgeon will unilaterally declare independence from the UK.

It would be the equivalent of the UK government pulling out of Europe when the electorate was also split down the middle.

It won't happen. If anything, Sturgeon would probably increase support for remaining in the Union if she even dared consider it.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Of all the most unlikely and unrealistic statements I've seen on this thread, that has to top them all - by a country mile.

There is absolutely no way - with a 50:50 electorate - that Nicola Sturgeon will unilaterally declare independence from the UK.

It would be the equivalent of the UK government pulling out of Europe when the electorate was also split down the middle.

It won't happen. If anything, Sturgeon would probably increase support for remaining in the Union if she even dared consider it.

The electorate is 50:50 today.

Yourself aside, I see that the Brexiters have completely abandoned the pretence that Brexit will be beneficial for the UK. Even "Get Brexit Done" evokes something more akin to a funeral or a court case than a massive opportunity.

Worth considering the range that the YouGov poll has determined.

Again, it reflects the degree of Johnson's majority, not that he will fail to attain one.

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1199816732845756416

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be the equivalent of the UK government pulling out of Europe when the electorate was also split down the middle.

.

Do you know what self-awareness is?

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Do you know what self-awareness is?

I do.

Just to remind you, the Brexit Referendum happened in June 2016.

LuckyLloyd

markodaly wrote: »

How so?

This is actually a very compelling comment. The one thing true labour supporters hate more than the Tories is Tony Blair and 'New' Labour. Even though he won 3 elections. There is a lesson there, but yes, stick with Corbyn he will win that election at some stage.

Tell me this, if the YouGov poll manifests itself to be true, should Corbyn step down?

Politics needs to be about more than winning. Blairism shifted the Overton window in UK Politics more firmly to the right than it had ever been. There is no point in winning if it is built on watered down versions of your opponent’s policies

NapoleonInRags

Deleted User wrote: »

Of all the most unlikely and unrealistic statements I've seen on this thread, that has to top them all - by a country mile.

There is absolutely no way - with a 50:50 electorate - that Nicola Sturgeon will unilaterally declare independence from the UK.

It would be the equivalent of the UK government pulling out of Europe when the electorate was also split down the middle.

It won't happen. If anything, Sturgeon would probably increase support for remaining in the Union if she even dared consider it.

That's actually hilarious.....thanks, best laugh I've had in a long time

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Do you know what self-awareness is?

NapoleonInRags wrote: »

That's actually hilarious.....thanks, best laugh I've had in a long time

That quote is taken outside context - deliberately, might I add.

That post was discussing Nicola Sturgeon's UDI and how it will not happen.

I referenced the UK. Imagine if the UK, instead of holding a referendum, declared a UDI from the European Union without the 2016 vote.

It would be just as absurd.

Please don't misrepresent my comments. Thanks.

Infini

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be the equivalent of the UK government pulling out of Europe when the electorate was also split down the middle.

HAH good one, show's the complete hypocracy in your logic right there, It's fine for the UK under English influence to drag Scotland out of the EU without their support but yet they're not allowed to leave the UK in turn because their interests are being ignored?

Deleted User wrote: »

I referenced the UK. Imagine if the UK, instead of holding a referendum, declared a UDI from the European Union without the 2016 vote.

If they'd done anything like that they'd instantly regret it because the reality of that situation is their economy would literally have imploded overnight. The problem here and what your not willing to see is that if Scotland is dragged out of the EU by England and their economy is wrecked by them under such polarised political enviroment then those fractures in the UK become chasms that split apart the country literally. Boris can try and block Sturgeon but a no deal scenario is the event that will bring an end to the UK. It's 50/50 right now and NI is similarly split and if there's a no deal then that's what tips the scales completely.

prawnsambo

Since all these so-called referendums are non-binding, glorified opinion polls, I'd say it's a valid comparison.

Infini

Infini wrote: »

HAH good one, show's the complete hypocracy in your logic right there, It's fine for the UK under English influence to drag Scotland out of the EU without their support but yet they're not allowed to leave the UK in turn because their interests are being ignored?

The UK voted to Leave. I don't believe in the concept of an ethnic vote - that somehow you have a Scottish vote and a Welsh vote and a Northern Ireland vote.

What you have are votes - and votes alone.

The UK voted - as a constitutional entity - to Leave; end of story.

It's against that backdrop that I made my comment that the UK unilaterally leaving the EU without a vote, would be as absurd as Nicola Sturgeon declaring a UDI without a vote.

I really can't make it any easier than that.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

That quote is taken outside context - deliberately, might I add.

That post was discussing Nicola Sturgeon's UDI and how it will not happen.

I referenced the UK. Imagine if the UK, instead of holding a referendum, declared a UDI from the European Union without the 2016 vote.

It would be just as absurd.

Please don't misrepresent my comments. Thanks.

But the UK could have left the EU without the use of a referendum......referendums have nothing to do with the EU.

Cameron could have stood up in the HoC at any point after May 2015 and announced the UK was leaving the EU and that he was sending the Article 50 letter at midnight.

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK voted to Leave. I don't believe in the concept of an ethnic vote - that somehow you have a Scottish vote and a Welsh vote and a Northern Ireland vote.

What you have are votes - and votes alone.

The UK voted - as a constitutional entity - to Leave; end of story.

It's against that backdrop that I made my comment that the UK unilaterally leaving the EU without a vote, would be as absurd as Nicola Sturgeon declaring a UDI without a vote.

I really can't make it any easier than that.

So a UK wide vote of only resident UK nationals, but not UK nationals resident elsewhere or EU nationals resident in the UK OK

But a Scottish vote on the voting age resident population including UK and EU nationals not OK?

One is far more "ethnic" than the other.

Infini

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK voted to Leave. I don't believe in the concept of an ethnic vote - that somehow you have a Scottish vote and a Welsh vote and a Northern Ireland vote.

What you have are votes - and votes alone.

The UK voted - as a constitutional entity - to Leave; end of story.

Again the vote was advisory and leave cheated by spending more than it was entitled to and if it had been legally binding it would have been annuled because of this. If the winning side cheats to such a degree it invalidates their legitimacy entirely and on top of that as said before there was no plan on HOW to leave, the conservatives literally pulled a "We are altering the deal" Darth Vader style and their whole talk of Unicorns and fantasies that they promised during the referendum were ultimately found wanting.

You dont get to mess up the lives of others who voted to remain like that on such a knife edge result with clear evidence of corrpution and sheer policial incompetency without suffering serious consequences in turn. Ignoring the wishes and concerns of both Scotland and Northern Ireland like this on an issue of such significance is exactly what could tip the scales in favour of both Scottish Independence and Irish Reunification.

Deleted User wrote: »

It's against that backdrop that I made my comment that the UK unilaterally leaving the EU without a vote, would be as absurd as Nicola Sturgeon declaring a UDI without a vote.

I really can't make it any easier than that.

Maybe you should look at the map of Scotland right now and after the election and see that nearly all of scotland is basically SNP with possible one or 2 exceptions. Remember the last time something like this happened in the UK about a century ago? :rolleyes:

Makes one feel glad Ireland is Independent today and not tied to this sinking ship of corruption, idiocy, insanity and utter lack of any interest in Facts or reason.

prawnsambo

Some irony really if this goes ahead.

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

I referenced the UK. Imagine if the UK, instead of holding a referendum, declared a UDI from the European Union without the 2016 vote.

Imagine if the EU refused to allow the UK to hold a referendum - Brexiter heads would explode with rage!

suicide_circus

perhaps the idea is to steer into the skid.

Just as no one knows what brexit will bring, no one knows what stopping brexit will bring. its hard not to foresee profound implications for british democracy.

ArmaniJeanss

prawnsambo wrote: »

Some irony really if this goes ahead.

Been meaning to say this before, but can you put your hyperlinks under a word(s), rather than the full-stop? Easy to miss and harder to click the way you currently do it.

prawnsambo

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Been meaning to say this before, but can you put your hyperlinks under a word(s), rather than the full-stop? Easy to miss and harder to click the way you currently do it.

Sorry, it's a habit I have gotten into. Will fix. Thanks for the feedback caller

prawnsambo

suicide_circus wrote: »

perhaps the idea is to steer into the skid.

Just as no one knows what brexit will bring, no one knows what stopping brexit will bring. its hard not to foresee profound implications for british democracy.

British democracy is broken anyway. Giving it a final coup de grace isn't going to change that. One of the many reasons for the stubborn insistence on brexit 'getting done' by the leave voters is the built up frustration of voting in elections for decades and never getting your voice heard because of safe seats and FPTP.

robinph

suicide_circus wrote: »

perhaps the idea is to steer into the skid.

Just as no one knows what brexit will bring, no one knows what stopping brexit will bring. its hard not to foresee profound implications for british democracy.

Some changes to democracy in the UK in the event of cancelling Brexit would be a good thing and well overdue. Not seeing the problem with that option.

suicide_circus

robinph wrote: »

Not seeing the problem with that option.

presumably because you disapprove of the way the vote went?

suicide_circus

suicide_circus wrote: »

presumably because you disapprove of the way the vote went?

They hate referendums - one should never have been called because it's advisory.

Yet they are now arguing for another advisory referendum.

They really need to make up their minds. :rolleyes: