General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

ComRes going in the opposite direction.
Poll taken Wednesday and Thursday this week, +- is from last weekend.

CON: 43% (+2)
LAB: 33% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

I love when Labour fans see 1 favourable poll out of 100 from which to harvest hope, only to have that hope fatally extinguished later the same day by yet another poll showing an excellent margin for the Tories.

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

Always expected them to get 0. A general election is a completely different ball game to European elections.

Small parties need absolutely exceptional candidates in order to take a seat.

Caroline Lucas is rare example.

The Brexit party have precisely 0 exceptional candidates.

I thought Tice looked and sounded pathetic on that debate last night. When it comes down to it people here want a bit more than "get brexit done" and "democracy is broken" and these guys cant offer it. If farage cant get close, then nobody else will.

As for labour candidates, diane abbott gets lots of stick (and lots of vicious unacceptable abuse as well) but the people of hackney really like her and respect the work she's done for them over three decades. That counts for a lot.

ArmaniJeanss

Last one today I think (Saturday evening always a flurry as these are generally for the Sunday newspapers)

Opinium gave the Conservatives a 19pt lead last weekend, which was the biggest margin so far. So been looking forward to this one to see if last week was a freak sample. But it still seems a solid blue majority, although 4 points better for Labour.

CON: 46% (-1)
LAB: 31% (+3)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
BREX: 2% (-1)

Wed to Fri this week

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I thought Tice looked and sounded pathetic on that debate last night. When it comes down to it people here want a bit more than "get brexit done" and "democracy is broken" and these guys cant offer it. If farage cant get close, then nobody else will.

As for labour candidates, diane abbott gets lots of stick (and lots of vicious unacceptable abuse as well) but the people of hackney really like her and respect the work she's done for them over three decades. That counts for a lot.

Diane Abbott came up the hard way, as did Rebecca Long-Bailey who was also mentioned disparagingly by another poster.

Long-Bailey worked a series of low paid jobs to fund an education for herself, which is something the likes of the privileged Tice, who swanned into Hartlepool like the 13th Duke of Wybourne, would never be able to even comprehend.

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

Diane Abbott came up the hard way, as did Rebecca Long-Bailey who was also mentioned disparagingly by another poster.

Long-Bailey worked a series of low paid jobs to fund an education for herself, which is something the likes of the privileged Tice, who swanned into Hartlepool like the 13th Duke of Wybourne, would never be able to even comprehend.

The tories with the help of their right wing press barons tried to destroy abbott in 2017, mocked her relentlessly and actually thought they could take her seat. The result? She increased her vote by something like 30%, one of the highest vote shares in the country. That kind of negative, aggressive campaigning backfired on her enemies and interesting thing is their entire campaign this time seems even more negative again so their cockiness doesnt convince me one bit.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Jebus. LauraK and the BBC are so biased it unbelievable.

Taking an answer from a similar, but different question and chopping into another question.

https://twitter.com/dimasciov/status/1200560875859566593?s=19

I was wondering had she done it again but that is old story from 2017. She is a disgrace to her profession, though.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I was wondering had she done it again but that is old story from 2017. She is a disgrace to her profession, though.

Apologies my mistake. The point still stands, but I deleted the post as it is old.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Apologies my mistake. The point still stands, but I deleted the post as it is old.

The point is still very relevant. Somebody is obviously manipulating that old bogus story to be trending on bbc website and fool people into thinking its current. Somebody else posted a similar one here yesterday. That the bbc are facilitating this is disgraceful.

ArmaniJeanss

Ah, one more then if ye insist, this time YouGov for the Times.

Con 43% (-)
Lab 34% (+2)
LDem 13% (-)
Brexit 2% (-2)
Green 3% (+1)

Sample days Thursday/Friday. This is just a normal poll, not an update of their MRP.

*******
A little bit for everyone to cling to in tonights polls, but with just 12 days until the election it's looking good for Johnson.

Aidric

Joe_ Public wrote: »

That kind of negative, aggressive campaigning backfired on her enemies and interesting thing is their entire campaign this time seems even more negative again so their cockiness doesnt convince me one bit.

I've watched a lot of tory interviews during this campaign and the one recurring theme is how they attack Labour party policy whilst at the same time offering no credible policy of their own.

Essentially they are campaigning on a slogan of get brexit done and tragically I think they will as a result of voter apathy.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Ah, one more then if ye insist, this time YouGov for the Times.

Con 43% (-)
Lab 34% (+2)
LDem 13% (-)
Brexit 2% (-2)
Green 3% (+1)

Sample days Thursday/Friday. This is just a normal poll, not an update of their MRP.

*******
A little bit for everyone to cling to in tonights polls, but with just 12 days until the election it's looking good for Johnson.

Johnson majority.

Statistically most likely.

Thank goodness for that.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Johnson majority.

Statistically most likely.

Thank goodness for that.

Anything else to add instead of your dull repetition like an opinion on say BBC's scandalous bias or BJ running scared from a non existent Neil interview?

I'm sure you have an opinion on the strong leader that is Boris Johnson.

I see sheep

Deleted User wrote: »

Johnson majority.

Statistically most likely.

Thank goodness for that.

We'll see mate, it'll be close I reckon.

Some 'ex'-Labour voters who are saying they'll vote tory now may well get a tug from their conscience on voting day and say "Jesus, I want Brexit but I cannot vote for these bastards who have destroyed my community/town/village/city"

And then do the right thing :cool:

Joe_ Public

Just one constituency, but a very interesting one. Portsmouth is said to be a very leave town and where tories need to gain seats to secure a majority. So if this is accurate it shows labour are quite capable of fending off the threat in those critical leave seats.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200855028229115905?s=20

Edit: looking at this and comparing it to the yougov mrp poll theres about 5% in the difference which could likely be explained by the lib dem vote going to labour for tactical reasons. Which would suggest that the yougov method cannot account for tactical voting.

Strazdas

Someone spotted that there wasn't a single question about Brexit on Question Time on Thursday - the debate was all about the NHS, party spending, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism.

This is not a good sign for the Tories. They want the campaign to be about 'Get Brexit Done' and nothing else.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Someone spotted that there wasn't a single question about Brexit on Question Time on Thursday - the debate was all about the NHS, party spending, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism.

This is not a good sign for the Tories. They want the campaign to be about 'Get Brexit Done' and nothing else.

There was an ipsos mori poll bout a week ago which had the nhs overtaking brexit as the biggest issue facing voters. If that trend continues and see no reason why not, it will be good news for the opposition.

Rjd2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10454418/desperate-jeremy-corbyn-has-not-given-up-yet-and-is-still-a-threat/

Crap source but the author Forsyth is excellent and knows what is what in Toryland. While I don't share his confidence that The tories get it done, the issue I and others pointed out is the Lib Dems collapse is a huge problem and Labour are loving it. Tories hoping that they don't have enough time to eek out what would be needed for a hung parliament.

Other issue is the Trump visit...he's deeply unpopular in the UK and will say something incredibly stupid and divisive and Boris and other Tories will have to try and defend it without upsetting the fragile one.

Whether it cuts through with the man on the street who knows, but a week before an election you really have better things to be doing.

Bannasidhe

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10454418/desperate-jeremy-corbyn-has-not-given-up-yet-and-is-still-a-threat/

Crap source but the author Forsyth is excellent and knows what is what in Toryland. While I don't share his confidence that The tories get it done, the issue I and others pointed out is the Lib Dems collapse is a huge problem and Labour are loving it. Tories hoping that they don't have enough time to eek out what would be needed for a hung parliament.

Other issue is the Trump visit...he's deeply unpopular in the UK and will say something incredibly stupid and divisive and Boris and other Tories will have to try and defend it without upsetting the fragile one.

Whether it cuts through with the man on the street who knows, but a week before an election you really have better things to be doing.

From that

As one Cabinet minister tells me: “It is going from being a Brexit election to a Corbyn election. That’s great for us as it is the one area even better for us than Brexit — it solidifies Tory Remainers behind us.

I wouldn't be so sure. It depends on how awful Tory Remainers think Brexit will be and how much they distrust Johnson not to crash them out. And we know there are many Tories who are firmly in the 'Heseltine' camp - as does Raab who got roundly heckled by them last week.

With the collapse of the Lib-Dems those Tories are faced with a stark choice - vote Johnson and Brexit is Done. The UK is out of the EU which is a forever kind of proposition or hold their noses, vote Labour which is the only chance of stopping Brexit now and put up with a Labour govt for the next few years.

It's going to come down to how much do the Tory Remainers want to Remain.
I have to say, if I was in their position I'd hold my nose, close my eyes, feel sick in my stomach, and vote for the party I swore I'd never vote for as this is too important an issue.

sid waddell

Even with his handpicked soft soap interviewer Andrew Marr, Boris Johnson was an absolute car crash there.

Barefaced lies from start to finish.

ancapailldorcha

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's going to come down to how much do the Tory Remainers want to Remain.
I have to say, if I was in their position I'd hold my nose, close my eyes, feel sick in my stomach, and vote for the party I swore I'd never vote for as this is too important an issue.

Yeah but that's yourself though. These people dislike Labour and absolutely detest Jeremy Corbyn. They might plump for the Lib Dems and there are seats in southeastern and southwestern England where they are much more viable than Labour. A Lib Dem minority tempering a Corbyn government would be the best that I think can be realistically hoped for given the dismal state indicated by polls at the moment.

In other news, it looks like John McDonnell is looking to tax more than just high earners:

https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1200751478677364736

Joe_ Public

Well that was i can only say an unedifying shambles of an interview on marr. Not sure should have expected any different. Johnson just barely got his line in about the victims before launching in on labour and corbyn. The rest was a cacophony of johnson bullying and marr interrupting. Went nowhere.

A lot of factchecking will be useful. "The gap between rich and poor has diminished," he claimed. Well that's a whopper of a lie right there anyway.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah but that's yourself though. These people dislike Labour and absolutely detest Jeremy Corbyn. They might plump for the Lib Dems and there are seats in southeastern and southwestern England where they are much more viable than Labour. A Lib Dem minority tempering a Corbyn government would be the best that I think can be realistically hoped for given the dismal state indicated by polls at the moment.

In other news, it looks like John McDonnell is looking to tax more than just high earners:

https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1200751478677364736

Would really need to hear full interview to understand exactly what he was saying and in what context to be honest.

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

Will Brexit ever end and will it consume bottomless amounts of time & resources in the EU (and especially here in Ireland) for ever more?

Brexit going on forever but never actually happening is better for everyone than Brexit happening.

CelticRambler

fly_agaric wrote: »

Will Brexit ever end and will it consume bottomless amounts of time & resources in the EU (and especially here in Ireland) for ever more? I wish someone would just lock all the MPs in conclave with no food until they produce some Brexit white smoke out the top of Big Ben.

Reminder 1: Brexit hasn't even started yet! All you're seeing and hearing and (possibly) getting fed up with is the conversation that should have happened before the UK triggered Article 50 so that the UK could reach the Brexit starting line.

Reminder 2: Theresa May tried to lock her own MPs in a room until they came up with a unified plan of action. When they emerged, they couldn't even agree amongst themselves what colour smoke was coming out of the chimney ...

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Would really need to hear full interview to understand exactly what he was saying and in what context to be honest.

That's not unreasonable. I'm listening now. Here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000btvn

About 13 minutes in.

I think Labour leavers will play a much bigger role in this election that moderate Tories to be honest. If Labour's northern heartlands start electing Conservatives, that's it. There is no net gain for Labour that will offset such a crucial loss.

sid waddell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Reminder 1: Brexit hasn't even started yet! All you're seeing and hearing and (possibly) getting fed up with is the conversation that should have happened before the UK triggered Article 50 so that the UK could reach the Brexit starting line.

Reminder 2: Theresa May tried to lock her own MPs in a room until they came up with a unified plan of action. When they emerged, they couldn't even agree amongst themselves what colour smoke was coming out of the chimney ...

Brexit will never end unless it's cancelled before it can happen.

The only smoke emerging from it will be the British economy going up in flames, - which will be quite a lot of smoke, actually.

Especially with a PM who flagrantly lies about the details of his deal - on Marr he again flaunted the lie that NI businesses would have no extra regulations to deal with under his Brexit deal.

Boris Johnson performed reasonably well in that Marr interview. No "gotcha" moments for the headlines to capture.

What has captured headlines is that Corbyn is in favour, in certain circumstances, for early release of terrorists; backing up the arguments I and others have made, that he is simply not serious about security threats to the UK.

Furthermore, polling over the past week show:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1200886298904596480

A Dub in Glasgo

The Tories have been in power for almost 10 years and yet somehow they and their sycophants try and pin the attack on Friday on the Labour Party. I am sure in their heads, it seems rational and logical, to everyone else it is a ridiculous position

markodaly

Bannasidhe wrote: »

In 2018 out of a total of 28 Condemnations issued by the UN - 21 were against Israel.

In fairness, isn't this a clear example of the 'anti-Semitism' that exists in some countries and their view against Israel?

Unless you want us to believe that in 2018, Israel alone was responsible for 75% of the world's wrongdoing.*

* that is not so say, Israel does wrong, but 75% of it? Nah, sorry, I don't buy that.

sid waddell

So, Boris Johnson admitted that 74 other terror convicts are out on early release.

On his watch.

And one went around stabbing and murdering random people on London Bridge on Friday.

How on earth can this idiot be taken in any way seriously?