General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

IAmTheReign

Deleted User wrote: »

We're witnessing a phenomenon in which prominent Brexit Party members and MEPs are encouraging more voters to opt for the Conservative Party.

It's only a matter of time before this translates into extra seats for Boris re: marginal seats.

Don't be surprised if many MP candidates themselves "withdraw" and encourage voters to opt for their Conservative counterpart.

I disagree; I think 48 seats is an enormously powerful majority.

How many marginal seats are there where there's enough Brexit Party supporters left to make a difference?

IAmTheReign

Sam Russell wrote: »

I do not accept that the concept is pie in the sky.

In 1927, the Irish Gov managed to get Ard na Crusha up and going (with the assistance of Siemens because the UK refused to help), and in the 1950s rolled out rural electrification. Look at how successful the IDA have been. These projects can be achieved.

Now, if your point is that the Labour Party are incapable of doing a pharma project of the scale needed, you may well be right. Nationalised industries do not have a good history in the UK.

As a concept it is not pie in the sky. The UK government could sign a deal with a CMO tomorrow to manufacture a handful of generic drugs and slap an NHS logo on them. The pie in the sky part is the idea that they could do this at a level of efficiency and scale where it would make a noticeable dent in the cost of drugs to the NHS. Generics manufacturing is a high volume, low profit industry. It relies on economies of scale to make money. How is NHS Pharma supposed to produce generic drugs at a cost per dose cheaper than the likes of Teva or Sandoz?

Letwin_Larry

bren2001 wrote: »

It's not a "major swing". To get a hung parliament, Labour don't need to gain the full 9-11% on the Tories. Around 6% would do it [so a 3-5%] swing which is in no way massive given it's a week away.

the Tory/Leaver/Get Brexit Done vote will remain solid imo, especially as Farage has effectively given them a clear run.
The key as someone mentioned earlier is how the Lab/Lib Dems split. The closer those 2 get, then the more the Tories will benefit.

ancapailldorcha

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the Tory/Leaver/Get Brexit Done vote will reamin solid imo, especially as Farage has effectively given them a clear run.
The key as someone mentioned earlier is how the Lab/Lib Dems split. The closer those 2 get, then the more the Tories will benefit.

I think that there are two factors.

The first is that Boris Johnson has, according to Sir John Curtice exhausted his supply of leave votes. His vote share won't be increasing. The question is whether or not Lib Dem voters can bear to vote for Labour in key seats.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, how much do Labour's Northern post-industrial base want Brexit? So much so that they are willing to vote for the most elitist and overtly anti working class Tory leader I think we've ever seen? Polls seem to indicate that this is certainly a possibility.

Ultimately, time will tell. We have another week to go.

bren2001

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the Tory/Leaver/Get Brexit Done vote will reamin solid imo, especially as Farage has effectively given them a clear run.
The key as someone mentioned earlier is how the Lab/Lib Dems split. The closer those 2 get, then the more the Tories will benefit.

It all comes down to how much of the Remain vote can Labour get (or vice versa in seats where the Lib Dems are close).

It's shocking (but in no way surprising) that they don't form a pact and stand candidates down.

bren2001

bren2001 wrote: »

It all comes down to how much of the Remain vote can Labour get (or vice versa in seats where the Lib Dems are close).

It's shocking (but in no way surprising) that they don't form a pact and stand candidates down.

Personally, I would be shocked if many standard Lib Dem voters choose to put Corbyn in power - with all the party's deluded far-Left economics, anti-Semitic credentials and anti-British government rhetoric - as well as risk a second Scottish referendum and break-up the UK.

If Swinson is not prepared to openly back Corbyn (like Farage has tacitly done for Johnson), I fail to see how a mass migration of Lib Dem supporters for Corbyn takes hold. For many of these voters, a Corbyn government is possibly worse than having Johnson in power.

If the debate were only about Brexit, perhaps this mass migration would happen. Given the above, no less significant ancillary factors, that migration seems increasingly unlikely - particularly in the recent light of Swinson now backing a second referendum as election policy.

spacecoyote

I'm not sure if this has been posted before but it really does feel like the UK at the moment in a nutshell

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201816755829641218

Basically:
Corbyn is wishy-washy
Boris is a likeable rogue who tells it like it is
Brexit isn't going to impact Average Joe so only the billionaires need to be worried about it.

If the opinions are that prevalent then the Tories will romp home & the British are in for a very hard landing once reality kicks in

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Personally, I would be shocked if many standard Lib Dem voters choose to put Corbyn in power - with all the party's deluded far-Left economics, anti-Semitic credentials and anti-British government rhetoric - as well as risk a second Scottish referendum and break-up the UK.

If Swinson is not prepared to openly back Corbyn (like Farage has tacitly done for Johnson), I fail to see how a mass migration of Lib Dem supporters for Corbyn takes hold. For many of these voters, a Corbyn government is possibly worse than having Johnson in power.

If the debate were only about Brexit, perhaps this mass migration would happen. Given the above, no less significant ancillary factors, that migration seems increasingly unlikely - particularly in the recent light of Swinson now backing a second referendum as election policy.

What was that poll you posted a minute ago? Tried to reply but wouldnt let me. Think you deleted it. Did it not say what you thought it might?

Interesting findings from the latest YouGov research, showing that - after Not Sures are left aside - 52.5% prefer some form of Brexit - where just 46.5% prefer Remaining within the EU.

Again, evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit.

c.p.w.g.w

spacecoyote wrote: »

I'm not sure if this has been posted before but it really does feel like the UK at the moment in a nutshell

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201816755829641218

Basically:
Corbyn is wishy-washy
Boris is a likeable rogue who tells it like it is
Brexit isn't going to impact Average Joe so only the billionaires need to be worried about it.

If the opinions are that prevalent then the Tories will romp home & the British are in for a very hard landing once reality kicks in

Imagine if Nissan was to closed in Sunderland...as a result of Brexit...which is likely under the current BOJO deal

Honda already closed in Swindon, apparently it had nowt to do with Brexit, but i don't believe that for a second...wording basically said it was Brexit, without saying Brexit

ancapailldorcha

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Imagine if Nissan was to closed in Sunderland...as a result of Brexit...which is likely under the current BOJO deal

Honda already closed in Swindon, apparently it had nowt to do with Brexit, but i don't believe that for a second...wording basically said it was Brexit, without saying Brexit

The Japanese have strong traditions of respect and deference so they aren't going to say anything. What I find mad is that the workers in these places will understand the importance of JIT manufacturing supply chains and yet voted to leave and now seem to think that it'll all be fine. Their call I suppose but I think my well of sympathy is running dry at this stage.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Interesting findings from the latest YouGov research, showing that - after Not Sures are left aside - 52.5% prefer some form of Brexit - where just 46.5% prefer Remaining within the EU.

Again, evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit.

Shows only 20% of labour voters favour no deal or johnsons deal. Significant figure if accurate.

Edit: thats not poll you posted and deleted though was it, in which you claimed majority of labour voters were leavers. Just curious to see that poll if you dont mind reposting the link thsnks.

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting findings from the latest YouGov research, showing that - after Not Sures are left aside - 52.5% prefer some form of Brexit - where just 46.5% prefer Remaining within the EU.

Again, evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit.

There is nothing solid about a 52/48 split.

And you may have missed that remaining was the clear most popular choice when given 4 different options. Start removing the least popular choices and who knows where those people would then pick with less options to chose from.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting findings from the latest YouGov research, showing that - after Not Sures are left aside - 52.5% prefer some form of Brexit - where just 46.5% prefer Remaining within the EU.

Again, evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit.

Or a majority are in favour of remaining in the single market and customs union if you add the soft Brexiters and the remainers together.

quokula

IAmTheReign wrote: »

As a concept it is not pie in the sky. The UK government could sign a deal with a CMO tomorrow to manufacture a handful of generic drugs and slap an NHS logo on them. The pie in the sky part is the idea that they could do this at a level of efficiency and scale where it would make a noticeable dent in the cost of drugs to the NHS. Generics manufacturing is a high volume, low profit industry. It relies on economies of scale to make money. How is NHS Pharma supposed to produce generic drugs at a cost per dose cheaper than the likes of Teva or Sandoz?

If you take Lupin as an example, they are the 8th largest drug manufacturer in the world and the 5th largest manufacturer of generics in Europe. They have annual operating costs of about 0.5% of the NHS budget. They make a tidy profit on that, a portion of which is then invested in R&D.

It's not beyond possible comprehension that a company with a mandate to produce specific drugs the NHS requires could operate at a scale to do so efficiently. The issue isn't that they can undercut the biggest drug manufacturers for every drug, but that they would have the control to produce specific drugs they need that may be more difficult or expensive to acquire. This is what a group of hospitals in America have already set up their own pharma company to achieve, as I linked to a few pages ago.

ambro25

spacecoyote wrote: »

I'm not sure if this has been posted before but it really does feel like the UK at the moment in a nutshell

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1201816755829641218

Basically:
Corbyn is wishy-washy
Boris is a likeable rogue who tells it like it is
Brexit isn't going to impact Average Joe so only the billionaires need to be worried about it.

If the opinions are that prevalent then the Tories will romp home & the British are in for a very hard landing once reality kicks in

At least amongst my statistically-insignificant circle of northern Brit inlaws, friends and acquaintances, that is indeed the prevalent view. Still.

We just had our best friends spend the weekend in Lux with us last weekend. Brexit voters both, both well educated and middle-class plus. She's still mad at Verhofstadt's "special place in hell" tweet of yesteryear (which she refuses to understand as addressed to the Brexit architects, rather than Brits at large). He's just very quiet...possibly to keep the marital bliss.

I didn't ask, but have very little doubt that they'll be voting Tory. Same with working class father in law, and a few more.

Like the last 3+ years never happened (never mind the last 10), and still completely oblivious to the reasons behind our own Brexodus last year.

Let them elect Johnson and learn...maybe. At any rate, they're long, long past being worth getting aggrieved over by now.

EDIT: and it's well past too late anyway, both objectively with the electing a week away, and observationally as the Tory-influenced MSM is gearing into overdrive (see today's leak of the Labour-Jewish inquiry report intended for the ECHR case, e.g. insta-drummed by Kuessenberg on Twitter).

More Brexit-themed than GE2019-themed, but there is an excellent Irish Times 'Inside Politics' podcast out today, about that post-Brexit hard landing. The EU27 is getting well out of love with the UK, the UK electing Johnson would likely see the EU27 switch to full-on gloves off mode in both PR and negotiating.

Strazdas

ambro25 wrote: »

At least amongst my statistically-insignificant circle of northern Brit inlaws, friends and acquaintances, that is indeed the prevalent view. Still.

We just had our best friends spend the weekend in Lux with us last weekend. Brexit voters both, both well educated and middle-class plus. She's still mad at Verhofstadt's "special place in hell" tweet of yesteryear (which she refuses to understand as addressed to the Brexit architects, rather than Brits at large). He's just very quiet...possibly to keep the marital bliss.

I didn't ask, but have very little doubt that they'll be voting Tory. Same with working class father in law, and a few more.

Like the last 3+ years never happened, and still completely oblivious to the reasons behind our own Brexodus last year.

Let them elect Johnson and learn...maybe. At any rate, they're long, long past being worth getting aggrieved over by now.

I hate using the word "brainwashing" but it is totally in play here. Their media are either openly lying to them or not up to the job of reporting politics properly.

In no other country in Europe would a ten year austerity government be on 40%+ in the polls.

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

At least amongst my statistically-insignificant circle of northern Brit inlaws, friends and acquaintances, that is indeed the prevalent view. Still.

We just had our best friends spend the weekend in Lux with us last weekend. Brexit voters both, both well educated and middle-class plus. She's still mad at Verhofstadt's "special place in hell" tweet of yesteryear (which she refuses to understand as addressed to the Brexit architects, rather than Brits at large). He's just very quiet...possibly to keep the marital bliss.

I didn't ask, but have very little doubt that they'll be voting Tory. Same with working class father in law, and a few more.

Like the last 3+ years never happened, and still completely oblivious to the reasons behind our own Brexodus last year.

Ditto. I'm dreading Christmas when I've to conceal from my family that I voted for Carmine (They don't know Corbyn's name but they hate him no less for that. DUP-philes, go figure). I visited my Brexit-supporting aunt recently and had the misfortune to be trapped with some of her friends who genuinely seem to think Farage is some sort of saint (pint made with accented affectations).

I think I'm done. If they want to elect someone as completely devoid of redeeming qualities as Boris Johnson as glorious leader then... maybe they just need to give the Emperor's new clothes a tryon.

ambro25 wrote: »

Let them elect Johnson and learn...maybe. At any rate, they're long, long past being worth getting aggrieved over by now.

Same here. I'm confident I'll get some sort of manufacturing job in Ireland while... I don't know. The only thing I'm sure of at this stage is that I will not be living in Boris Johnson's post Brexit house of pain. I think a lot of highly skilled people here, UK and EU both will be looking to jump off the sinking ship unless business lobby groups can make him see sense.

quokula

Strazdas wrote: »

I hate using the word "brainwashing" but it is totally in play here. Their media are either openly lying to them or not up to the job of reporting politics properly.

In no other country in Europe would a ten year austerity government be on 40%+ in the polls.

There's no short of evidence of the constant barrage of lies and misinformation across the British media, but this was an interesting article I came across today about the sort of misinformation being spread at a local level in each constituency:

https://thebristolcable.org/2019/11/general-election-2019-online-falsehoods-social-media-dark-money-influencing-voters-in-filton-and-bradley-stoke/

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting findings from the latest YouGov research, showing that - after Not Sures are left aside - 52.5% prefer some form of Brexit - where just 46.5% prefer Remaining within the EU.

Again, evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit.

That's amazing. Can't seem to find that YouGov poll anywhere. Here's some validated polling.


Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union? 10 polls 30th Aug-29th Nov:

Remain: 50%
Leave: 44%
Don't know: 6%


If a second EU Referendum were held today, how would you vote? 10 polls 30th Oct - 30th Nov:

Remain: 47%
Leave: 44%
Don't know: 9%


Speaking of YouGov.... If there was a referendum on membership of the European Union, how would you vote? YouGov poll 18th Nov 2019:

Remain: 45%
Leave: 40%
Would not vote:7%
Don't know: 8%


Speaking of YouGov again...If there was a referendum on membership of the European Union, how would you vote? 10 YouGov polls 30th Apr 2018 - 18th Nov 2019:

Remain: 46%
Leave: 40%
Would not vote: 6%
Don't know: 8%

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's amazing. Can't seem to find that YouGov poll anywhere.

Well, let me gift you an early Christmas present.

Here.

CelticRambler

quokula wrote: »

The issue isn't that they can undercut the biggest drug manufacturers for every drug, but that they would have the control to produce specific drugs they need that may be more difficult or expensive to acquire. This is what a group of hospitals in America have already set up their own pharma company to achieve, as I linked to a few pages ago.

Jeez, you're starting to sound like eskimo now! :pac: How many times to do you have to be told that the "difficult or expensive to acquire" paradigm doesn't apply in Europe like it does in the US?

The NHS doesn't need any drugs. The doctors working within the NHS decide what drugs they would like to use, depending on a variety of factors including relevance to the patient's condition, efficacy, dosage, cost and whether or not they're on the NHS' list of approved drugs. Exactly the same process that your local vet uses when deciding what to give your cat or dog.

If you're going to argue in favour of Labour's proposal, do so on the basis of the conditions pertaining to the cost, availability and supply of pharmaceuticals in the EU, not the US, and then on the forecast savings to the NHS.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Jeez, you're starting to sound like eskimo now! :pac: How many times to do you have to be told that the "difficult or expensive to acquire" paradigm doesn't apply in Europe like it does in the US?

The NHS doesn't need any drugs. The doctors working within the NHS decide what drugs they would like to use, depending on a variety of factors including relevance to the patient's condition, efficacy, dosage, cost and whether or not they're on the NHS' list of approved drugs. Exactly the same process that your local vet uses when deciding what to give your cat or dog.

If you're going to argue in favour of Labour's proposal, do so on the basis of the conditions pertaining to the cost, availability and supply of pharmaceuticals in the EU, not the US, and then on the forecast savings to the NHS.

Right, and even if you are correct, Leave voters care about the democratic result, not these economic minutiae that often gets discussed.

Non-economic factors won the referendum campaign. Period.

Even if you were right about the drugs/NHS issue, I'd still vote Brexit in a second referendum.

That's why Remainers keep focussing on convoluted, vague, long-term economic arguments. It's a convenient talking shop away from the non-economic factors that determined the referendum result.

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well, let me gift you an early Christmas present.

Here.

You're being asked where did you get that 52.5% figure from. Dont just throw a link and say ta da, explain where exactly you got it. Help us out a little.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, let me gift you an early Christmas present.

Here.

Thank you. You should contact them. Their percentage calculations are wrong.


Now. Here's what you said:

"evidence shows that the UK is - right now - solidly behind a form of Brexit."

This is wrong as the polling demonstrates.

Preview of Andrew Neil's interview with Nigel Farage later tonight:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Francis/status/1202617770455818242

The attached which I placed in a previous post comes from their report, which is on the link I provided you above (scroll to bottom of page for the report).

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Preview of Andrew Neil's interview with Nigel Farage later tonight:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Francis/status/1202617770455818242

The attached which I placed in a previous post comes from their report, which is on the link I provided you above (scroll to bottom of page for the report).

Calculations still wrong. And you're still wrong as myriad polls demonstrate. Most people want to Remain in the EU.

Joe_ Public

As explained many times, pointless lumping hard brexit and soft brexit supporters together as one bloc. A good portion of them will simply never support the others position. They cannot be put together as a united front, just to make some sort of point. They'd have left last march if that was the case.

quokula

CelticRambler wrote: »

Jeez, you're starting to sound like eskimo now! :pac: How many times to do you have to be told that the "difficult or expensive to acquire" paradigm doesn't apply in Europe like it does in the US?

The NHS doesn't need any drugs. The doctors working within the NHS decide what drugs they would like to use, depending on a variety of factors including relevance to the patient's condition, efficacy, dosage, cost and whether or not they're on the NHS' list of approved drugs. Exactly the same process that your local vet uses when deciding what to give your cat or dog.

If you're going to argue in favour of Labour's proposal, do so on the basis of the conditions pertaining to the cost, availability and supply of pharmaceuticals in the EU, not the US, and then on the forecast savings to the NHS.

I'm very familiar with how the NHS operates as my partner worked in an NHS hospital for years.

Drugs get approved (and some don't based on their cost / benefit) and then they're on the list and doctors can prescribe them. But they do have criteria for being prescribed, and they still cost whatever price was negotiated and the NHS still has to pay that cost, and it comes out of their budget.

And drug rationing does happen. I have personal experience of being given a private prescription for a drug by my NHS GP, as the NHS wouldn't cover it, but I was able to purchase it myself (it was available on the NHS under extremely limited circumstances which wouldn't cover me, even though my GP believed I needed it)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/doctors-warn-nhs-is-rationing-best-drugs-to-cut-costs-l9cp6blgl
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/18/revealed-nhs-running-short-of-dozens-of-lifesaving-medicines
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-40485724

ArmaniJeanss

Wrexham, red since 1935. Conservatives way ahead.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/12/05/the-tories-are-well-ahead-in-wrexham-part-of-labours-red-wall

If these sort of constituencies are falling relatively easily then Labour in huge trouble.