General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

quokula

Aegir wrote: »

Corbyn has consitently sat on the fence and done what he has done his entire political career, voted against everything. He needs to cop on to the fact that he is now a party leader and not president of the local student union.

I don't understand how you can reconcile accusing someone of being an ideological extremist and also of having sat on the fence their entire career at the same time.

I suggest you check his voting record if you think he just votes against everything.

It's all on the public record here:

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10133/jeremy_corbyn/islington_north/votes

A few from that:

Consistently voted for equal gay rights
Almost always voted for laws to promote equality and human rights
Generally voted for more EU integration
Generally voted for a right to remain for EU nationals already in living in the UK
Consistently voted for raising welfare benefits at least in line with prices
Consistently voted for smoking bans
Generally voted for a transparent Parliament
Generally voted for a wholly elected House of Lords
Generally voted for transferring more powers to the Scottish Parliament
Generally voted for more powers for local councils
Generally voted for financial incentives for low carbon emission electricity generation methods
Consistently voted for restrictions on fees charged to tenants by letting agents

When you say "always votes against everything", your definition of "everything" is policies the Tories want to push through isn't it?

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just to repeat, i dont believe it is in any way credible that they can negotiate a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020. It seems like fantasy to me. That is my and many others' belief.

They have to decide by July whether to extend the negotiationing period. Johnson has categorically ruled any extension out.

Ergo no trade deal by 31 December means no deal exit.

Literally, the only way I see this happening is businesses lobbying hard for the EEA option and Johnson spinning it as some sort of win for this support base. Otherwise, there's just too much ratification that needs to be done even if you ignore the huge amount of time that trade deals take to negotiate.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Where did you see May's and then Johnson's deal on the referendum ballot?

Leave means triggering Article 50.

Article 50 states that the member state leaves "with or without a Deal".

Johnson provided a Deal.

He's now 44 points in a General Election ballot.

QED.

bren2001

Deleted User wrote: »

Leave means triggering Article 50.

Article 50 states that the member state leaves "with or without a Deal".

Johnson provided a Deal.

QED.

That was voted through the first reading and pulled from further scrutinty so that he could have an election.

QED.

Leave is a hell of a lot more complicated than triggering Article 50. It's been a long time since it has been triggered and they still have not left. It means negotiating a withdrawal deal, getting it through parliament and then negotiating a new trade deal during the transition period.

At the same time, it involves developing a strategy for dealing with NI, building custom points at which location is decided in trade talks. Dealing with the fallout, tailbacks, and issues associated with that. Sitting down with the Scottish parties and possibly overseeing the breakup of the United Kingdom.

I could continue writing that list for hours.

But yeah leave = article 50....

He now has 0 votes in an election because it hasn't happened. No point in quoting polls. They're utterly meaningless in the end.

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Literally, the only way I see this happening is businesses lobbying hard for the EEA option and Johnson spinning it as some sort of win for this support base. Otherwise, there's just too much ratification that needs to be done even if you ignore the huge amount of time that trade deals take to negotiate.

And people talk as if they have a year to negotiate. But even going into turbo drive - which is anathema to how EU operates - those talks wont formally begin until February at earliest, more likely march, and substantively agreed by Oct/early nov so that the legislative meat can be put on the bones. The timeline makes no sense whatsoever imo. Unless, as you say, the uk do some subtle reverse manoeuvrering.

bren2001

bren2001 wrote: »

That was voted through the first reading and pulled from further scrutinty so that he could have an election.

QED.

...which the Opposition voted for in overwhelming numbers.

bren2001

Deleted User wrote: »

...which the Opposition voted for in overwhelming numbers.

Whats your point?

If you offer the opposition an election, they'll usually take it. Nobody wants to be in opposition. What's your point?

LuckyLloyd

sid waddell wrote: »

The belief in sections of the left that "next time will be different" is touching, and pretty kuch always wrong. Even if it is different electorally, by then, the real damage to British society will already be done.

Labour’s next manifesto in a half decade will not be of the left, just as New Labour and Tony Blair were not of the left. It will be of the centre and, when it comes, an argument for competence, sanity and stopping the rot rather than any attempt to change UK society substantively for the better.

You are right, the damage will have been done. It’s been done over the course of 40 years (soon to be 45) and never gets rolled back or solved when the oscillation is between right and centre and back to right again. The inequalities in UK society and the ever deepening structural issues just get worse.

So there is no sense from me about it being different next time.

Fascinating video has emerged in which pro-Corbyn supporters are presented with quotes/actions from Corbyn in relation to Jews/anti-Semitism and told that Johnson said/did it.

Their response:

• Johnson is not fit to lead the country.
• Johnson should stand down.
• It doesn't surprise me from someone like Johnson.

When they're told that it was in fact Corbyn who said/done those things, they squirm and complain and offer pitiful justifications.

Their response is comical. Worth a watch.

bren2001

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Labour’s next manifesto in a half decade will not be of the left, just as New Labour and Tony Blair were not of the left. It will be of the centre and, when it comes, an argument for competence, sanity and stopping the rot rather than any attempt to change UK society substantively for the better.

You are right, the damage will have been done. It’s been done over the course of 40 years (soon to be 45) and never gets rolled back or solved when the oscillation is between right and centre and back to right again. The inequalities in UK society and the ever deepening structural issues just get worse.

So there is no sense from me about it being different next time.

I'm not so sure that Labours next manifesto will be Center-Left like the Blair era. It's the obviously position for them to occupy but I don't think the membership base will vote for a leader like that.

Miliband reduced the membership fee to £3 which introduced a lot of far left members to the party. Of the £3 new members, 84% voted for Corbyn. In his time, Corbyn has surrounded himself with people of his beliefs and thrown out people like Alastair Campbell. I believe the next leader will be no different to Corbyn and we could well end up having the same discussion in 5 years time. The voter base is there for a candidate like that.

Neil Kinnock spent a long time fixing the Labour Party and Blair reaped the benefits of it. Miliband reversed Kinnocks work in an instant. I think the problems in the party run quite deep at this stage.

sid waddell

Deleted User wrote: »

Fascinating video has emerged in which pro-Corbyn supporters are presented with quotes/actions from Corbyn in relation to Jews/anti-Semitism and told that Johnson said/did it.

Their response:

• Johnson is not fit to lead the country.
• Johnson should stand down.
• It doesn't surprise me from someone like Johnson.

When they're told that it was in fact Corbyn who said/done those things, they squirm and complain and offer pitiful justifications.

Their response is comical. Worth a watch.

Sure that's literally exactly what you've been doing on this whole thread!

ancapailldorcha

I find it so depressing and regrettable that One Nation Conservatism has been effectively killed off by the Tory party:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1202909360860602371

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Fascinating video has emerged in which pro-Corbyn supporters are presented with quotes/actions from Corbyn in relation to Jews/anti-Semitism and told that Johnson said/did it.

Their response:

• Johnson is not fit to lead the country.
• Johnson should stand down.
• It doesn't surprise me from someone like Johnson.

When they're told that it was in fact Corbyn who said/done those things, they squirm and complain and offer pitiful justifications.

Their response is comical. Worth a watch.

A heavily edited video from a very right wing blog isn't much evidence. Feel free to post something unedited if you can find it but this is just more propaganda.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Where did you see May's and then Johnson's deal on the referendum ballot?

Parliament's position on this reminds me of when my wife asks me to "Pick her up something nice" when I am going to the shops.

I know full well that "Something nice" means anything other than the thing I will get.

Parliament voted for the government to go an negotiate a withdrawal deal, which they keep rejecting for something else, but no one has actually said what something better is.

Corbyn has placed his Brexit plan on getting a better deal, when everyone knows this is just not going to happen.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just to repeat, i dont believe it is in any way credible that they can negotiate a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020. It seems like fantasy to me. That is my and many others' belief.

They have to decide by July whether to extend the negotiationing period. Johnson has categorically ruled any extension out.

Ergo no trade deal by 31 December means no deal exit.

you are confusing a trade deal with the withdrawal agreement

Harry Palmr

Leaked Brexit document first denied then confirmed by Tories. Regards the level of checking of goods between NI and GB.

boggerman1

The Brexit minister on politics live telling mid truths about what the revenue commissioners are saying about checks between norn iron and the mainland.u could say it’s unbelievable but now its not

robindch

Andrew Neil - for all his faults - empty-chairs Mr Johnson with some panache.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1202670854410297344

sid waddell

bren2001 wrote: »

I'm not so sure that Labours next manifesto will be Center-Left like the Blair era. It's the obviously position for them to occupy but I don't think the membership base will vote for a leader like that.

Miliband reduced the membership fee to £3 which introduced a lot of far left members to the party. Of the £3 new members, 84% voted for Corbyn. In his time, Corbyn has surrounded himself with people of his beliefs and thrown out people like Alastair Campbell. I believe the next leader will be no different to Corbyn and we could well end up having the same discussion in 5 years time. The voter base is there for a candidate like that.

Neil Kinnock spent a long time fixing the Labour Party and Blair reaped the benefits of it. Miliband reversed Kinnocks work in an instant. I think the problems in the party run quite deep at this stage.

I expect Rebecca Long-Bailey to be the next Labour leader and she will be savaged by the press as badly as how Corbyn has been.

What is needed is a genuine left alternative who can unite the party and doesn't come with the perceived baggage Corbyn did.

Long-Bailey, despite being three decades younger than Corbyn will be branded, like Corbyn, as "being from the "1970s", and simultaneously be branded as too young.

The mad thing is that next time would have been an ideal time for Ed Miliband. He'd have been more experienced, and the fact he's Jewish would have shut down the anti-Semitism smear campaign immediately. But that obviously won't happen now. I'd love to see him come back into a very prominent front bench position though, Shadow Chancellor or Shadow Foreign Secretary.

I don't really see Starmer as a leader.

Clive Lewis was heavily touted as the man in waiting a couple of years ago, I wonder would he go for it.

Andy Burnham would be a decent leader but he's out of the frame and it would be hard to see him win anyway given how he was expected to last time and didn't.

CelticRambler

Aegir wrote: »

Parliament voted for the government to go an negotiate a withdrawal deal, which they keep rejecting for something else, but no one has actually said what something better is.

Parliament voted for the Johnson WA, only to have Johnson himself decide that he didn't want to get Brexit done after all. To continue the spousal analogy, it's like when you reluctantly agree to go to some event with your dearly beloved at her request, only for her to say that she would have preferred to have a cosy date-night at home. :P

IAmTheReign

Deleted User wrote: »

In fact, I would add that it plays into the Johnson narrative of David versus the Establishment Goliath.

It takes a special kind of delusion to think that Boris Johnson, the old Etonion, prime minister and leader of the Conservative party is in any way anti establishment.

Sam Russell

sid waddell wrote: »

Any other Labour leader would have faced a massive propaganda and vilification campaign. Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown certainly did and if and when there's a new Labour leader in the near future, they will face a serious onslaught too.

Even the Liberal Democrats and especially Jo Swinson have suffered quite badly in the face of propaganda and vilification in this campaign.

Do not forget Michael Foot and Harold Wilson.

There was even a report of coup against HW because of the belief he was a Russian spy (included in series 3 of the Netflix Crown).

The press in Britain has been right wing, anti union, anti working class for well over a century. Look at Victorian copies of Punch and see how anti Irish they were. Things have not changed.

Of course, the anti Russian smear is a bit of a joke because it is not Labour that is taking Russian money, but the Tories.

Joe_ Public

Aegir wrote: »

you are confusing a trade deal with the withdrawal agreement

I guess I'm just not very good at explaining myself. I'll just give it one last try.

Johnson majority, then WA passed. Then trade deal talks. No agreement by Dec 31, no extension, UK is out on its own on wto. They could then of course still go back to talks, but nobody should try to pretend they have any kind of whip hand.

So i just dont believe there is any possibility of a trade deal being concluded by December 2020. No source for that btw, just my speculative belief.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Parliament voted for the Johnson WA, only to have Johnson himself decide that he didn't want to get Brexit done after all. To continue the spousal analogy, it's like when you reluctantly agree to go to some event with your dearly beloved at her request, only for her to say that she would have preferred to have a cosy date-night at home. :P

For the agreement, but against the timetable.

Notably, this was only because 19 labour MPs defied their leader and voted for it.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess I'm just not very good at explaining myself. I'll just give it one last try.

Johnson majority, then WA passed. Then trade deal talks. No agreement by Dec 31, no extension, UK is out on its own on wto. They could then of course still go back to talks, but nobody should try to pretend they have any kind of whip hand.

So i just dont believe there is any possibility of a trade deal being concluded by December 2020. No source for that btw, just my speculative belief.

An agreement in principle must be reached by 1 July, otherwise an extension is sought in June for beyond Dec. 2020.

Joe_ Public

3 days to pass a bill of monumental significance running to 100s of pages.

The circuses act had been given 3 weeks of scrutiny - a bill dealing with a grand total of 19 animals.

And its all on the opposition dont you know!

bren2001

Joe_ Public wrote: »

3 days to pass a bill of monumental significance running to 100s of pages.

The circuses act had been given 3 weeks of scrutiny - a bill dealing with a grand total of 19 animals.

And its all on the opposition dont you know!

Nevermind the fact that he unlawfully shut down parliament and expelled 21 of his own MPs from his party.

Labours fault, they dithered and dallied.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess I'm just not very good at explaining myself. I'll just give it one last try.

Johnson majority, then WA passed. Then trade deal talks. No agreement by Dec 31, no extension, UK is out on its own on wto. They could then of course still go back to talks, but nobody should try to pretend they have any kind of whip hand.

So i just dont believe there is any possibility of a trade deal being concluded by December 2020. No source for that btw, just my speculative belief.

Incidentally, movement on a trade deal would have to be concluded long before the December deadline. Analysts reckon Johnson would have to commit to the idea of a trade deal by mid summer, otherwise the EU would break off talks with him. If they felt he was just showboating or bluffing for domestic consumption, there would be no need to keep talks going.

Professor Moriarty

bren2001 wrote: »

Nevermind the fact that he unlawfully shut down parliament and expelled 21 of his own MPs from his party.

Labours fault, they dithered and dallied.

It's Labour's fault that Johnson prorogued parliament and expelled 21 Tory MPs?

IAmTheReign

Deleted User wrote: »

An agreement in principle must be reached by 1 July, otherwise an extension is sought in June for beyond Dec. 2020.

Where did you get this from? I haven't seen anyone talk about extension discussions next summer. Boris Johnson himself guaranteed a deal by end of next year only yesterday.

“It’s very much in their (the EU’s) interest to do a deal with us and I have no doubt that they will and if you say ‘can I absolutely guarantee that I can get a deal’? I think I can,”

He'd hardly say that if he's planning on having to talk extensions in June would he?

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I guess I'm just not very good at explaining myself. I'll just give it one last try.

Johnson majority, then WA passed. Then trade deal talks. No agreement by Dec 31, no extension, UK is out on its own on wto. They could then of course still go back to talks, but nobody should try to pretend they have any kind of whip hand.

So i just dont believe there is any possibility of a trade deal being concluded by December 2020. No source for that btw, just my speculative belief.

the December 2020 deadline is arbitrary, we have to get to the position of actually negotiating one first.