General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Joe_ Public

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Corbyn aimed high and wouldn't get down in the dirt with Johnson.

Unfortunate thing for Labour and Corbyn is that UK politics is resolutely stuck in the dirt atm.
The only thing we can do looking on is wish the decent people of the UK the best of luck for what is ahead. It isn't a light at the end of that tunnel sadly.

Yeah, pretty much. I'm not going to knock corbyn for that, but reality is nobodys going to thank him or give him credit for it. Didn't work with clinton and not gonna work here.

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson clear winner. On track for majority and Brexit on 31st of January.

This is in Ireland's interest no matter what side you are on.

Anything else puts the border back on the agenda.

Happy enough with the direction of travel.

10000maniacs

Unfortunately Corbyn sitting on the fence will more than likely sink Labour. The breakup of the UK looms. Maybe this will be the net benefit of a Tory majority. But I still cling to the hope that young people didn't participate in the polls, but will come out and vote.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson clear winner. On track for majority and Brexit on 31st of January.

This is in Ireland's interest no matter what side you are on.

Anything else puts the border back on the agenda.

Happy enough with the direction of travel.

Doesn't the Irish Sea trade barrier, in and of itself, put the Border back on the agenda, by creating distance between NI and GB?

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Prime Minister Johnson won the debate 52% to 48%.

Corbyn had so many targets to strike, so many untruths to target, yet couldn't land a single significant blow to make the headlines.

With a 10-12% point lead, Johnson and the Conservatives will be very happy with the % lead in the debate leading into next Thursday's General Election.

If users here were the equivalent of the UK electorate, you'd believe Corbyn won by 90%. That's why the poll produced in this forum is completely ridiculous:

Thus far on this forum thread: 62% Corbyn; 19% Prime Minister Johnson; so far out of touch with reality, it's really quite embarrassing.

Boris is ahead in the polls. Of course there are people pushing their wee buttons to vote for him in a debate.

I'd prefer to depend on my own judgement. Corbyn's every utterance had substance against a stream of sound bytes and evasions.

As somebody else said, reasoning with facts is not doable in the UK anymore, it is a political system in chaos as the union tears itself asunder.
It would be popcorn time only real people are going to experience a world of pain.
I want somebody...anybody to hit the STOP button, you want to cheerlead it. Carry on. Like Boris, you are impossible to engage with.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson clear winner. On track for majority and Brexit on 31st of January.

This is in Ireland's interest no matter what side you are on.

Anything else puts the border back on the agenda.

Happy enough with the direction of travel.

Johnson will win the election and probably do the deal. But it far from over from our point of view and a strong Tory party will do no favours here.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Doesn't the Irish Sea trade barrier, in and of itself, put the Border back on the agenda, by creating distance between NI and GB?

That's for the unionists and the "mainlanders" to work out.

Our job is done.:cool:

LuckyLloyd

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Johnson will win the election and probably do the deal. But it far from over from our point of view and a strong Tory party will do no favours here.

While I welcome the completion of the withdrawal phase of Brexit and am happy with the NI text; instability beside us in the UK cannot be a good thing. This coming Conservative government is about to unleash chaos that will threaten the UK and create significant poverty and economic instability right beside us. I’m struggling to welcome that on the whole.

FrancieBrady

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

While I welcome the completion of the withdrawal phase of Brexit and am happy with the NI text; instability beside us in the UK cannot be a good thing. This coming Conservative government is about to unleash chaos that will threaten the UK and create significant poverty and economic instability right beside us. I’m struggling to welcome that on the whole.

Agree. The sooner they start calling this what it is the better. It is not Brexit, it is the break-up of a union that is happening and it isn't going to pretty.
Fed up with the nonsense now. It has gone stale and pathetic.

Letwin_Larry

Deleted User wrote: »

Prime Minister Johnson won the debate 52% to 48%.

Corbyn had so many targets to strike, so many untruths to target, yet couldn't land a single significant blow to make the headlines.

With a 10-12% point lead, Johnson and the Conservatives will be very happy with the % lead in the debate leading into next Thursday's General Election.

If users here were the equivalent of the UK electorate, you'd believe Corbyn won by 90%. That's why the poll produced in this forum is completely ridiculous:

Thus far on this forum thread: 62% Corbyn; 19% Prime Minister Johnson; so far out of touch with reality, it's really quite embarrassing.

posters on here may appear out of touch, but i would think that's because as we Irish are not directly involved we can cast a slightly more detached eye on proceedings.

as for Corbyn or Johnson i'm no fan of either. i've said repeatedly on this thread, the UK electorate has an unenviable task in deciding which of these 2 will do least damage to your country.
the loons have taken over both parties so either option will be disastrous for the UK imo. but like i said, i dont live there so i really couldn't care less.

it's great entertainment and has been since the referendum vote. i'm looking forward to many more months, if not years of it.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1203085297917005825

I see sheep

Johnson digs into the Sun/Daily Mail playbook and comes out with "eh eh you talked to the IRA".
What a pathetic excuse for a man.
Then all the tory propaganda rag media, led by the Telegraph, have this brain-dead comment as their main takeaway from the debate.
Jesus I'm thinking of going on holiday to Pyongyang to get some balanced news on things.
Tory voters should all be deeply ashamed of themselves for having this xenophobic cretin as their leader.

sid waddell

I missed this at the time too - but sure obviously the Tory media isn't completely nuts or anything.

https://twitter.com/AndrewBartletta/status/1197265089243615233

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

I missed this at the time too - but sure obviously the Tory media isn't completely nuts or anything.

https://twitter.com/AndrewBartletta/status/1197265089243615233

Its just nuts but not even shocking anymore. I remember heffer on a panel show recently and he came across as a bit hysterical, almost vicious hatred for corbyn so in that respect, not too surprised he's come out with that offensive nonsense.

Edit: thread reminded me heffer is the lovely chap who libelled liverpool fans over the Hillsborough tragedy. Him and his then boss boris johnson, or was it other way around?

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its just nuts but not even shocking anymore. I remember heffer on a panel show recently and he came across as a bit hysterical, almost vicious hatred for corbyn so in that respect, not too surprised he's come out with that offensive nonsense.

Have a quick search for some of his articles - he's completely insane but by the standards of the Tory media, by no means a huge outlier.

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Edit: thread reminded me heffer is the lovely chap who libelled liverpool fans over the Hillsborough tragedy. Him and his then boss boris johnson, or was it other way around?

I think he wrote the editorial published under Johnson's name in 2004. A scurrilous piece.

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

Have a quick search for some of his articles - he's completely insane but by the standards of the Tory media, by no means a huge outlier.

He's a fairly respected historian to be fair to him, has a book just released on ww1 that has been getting ok reviews. I won't be reading it all the same, he's just not for me.

quokula

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

posters on here may appear out of touch, but i would think that's because as we Irish are not directly involved we can cast a slightly more detached eye on proceedings.

Aside from being Irish and having access to a comparatively unbiased and fact based news media in this country, we're also people who have chosen to spend some spare time discussing politics and as such have (for the most part) educated ourselves and gained some understanding of policy.

Sadly the majority of voters will regurgitate what the Daily Mail or the paid Tory Facebook ads have told them, and don't see through the blatant continuous lies that came out of Johnson's mouth during the debate. Lying with confidence beats honesty with humility, when nobody bothers to do any fact checking.

Joe_ Public

sid waddell wrote: »

I think he wrote the editorial published under Johnson's name in 2004. A scurrilous piece.

I'm not a Liverpool fc fan or anything but have been to city a good few times and always found the people to be among the friendliest and most welcoming I've come across. That they have boris johnsons measure only makes me so much fonder of them. If they elected any more tories there I'd be truly devastated.

corbyn can do no right by the british media.

the electorate are lamentably easily led by the latter, which is probably true for any country i guess.

imo he does well just to keep putting his policies out there and hold on to control of labour.

that the media and many voters seem to hold him responsible for any part of what brexit is or was tells you all you need to know.

britain needs two splits to happen to move on from their current state- their two main parties should face up to facts and split into their already quite apparent factions, and england should give up the lazy pretence it bothers with maintaining a union they cant afford and cannot maintain.

horrible ****ing lot, obviously.

quokula

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm not a Liverpool fc fan or anything but have been to city a good few times and always found the people to be among the friendliest and most welcoming I've come across. That they have boris johnsons measure only makes me so much fonder of them. If they elected any more tories there I'd be truly devastated.

I'm convinced that the effect Hillsborough had on Liverpool's trust in the right wing newspapers has translated to a completely unique political landscape there compared to the rest of England.

dublinman1990

Here is a full analysis of YouGov's opinion poll findings from tonight's debate.

Be mindful however that this sample of voters taken from these findings are very small. It amounts to only 1,322 people.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/06/yougov-due-release-bbc-debate-snap-poll-930pm?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=bbc_debate_results

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gci96le4hp/FULL_Debates_191206_v2.pdf

Joe_ Public

quokula wrote: »

I'm convinced that the effect Hillsborough had on Liverpool's trust in the right wing newspapers has translated to a completely unique political landscape there compared to the rest of England.

I think there would likely be some truth in that for sure. I just get a vibe of a very community oriented place there and that could have contributed. My first visit was 1997 for grand national, year of the bomb scare, and the kindness and understanding of the locals astonished me. Hard to think it was a tory city a couple of decades before that!

Professor Moriarty

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Here is a full analysis of YouGov's opinion poll findings from tonight's debate.

Be mindful however that this sample of voters taken from these findings are very small. It amounts to only 1,322 people.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/06/yougov-due-release-bbc-debate-snap-poll-930pm?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=bbc_debate_results

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gci96le4hp/FULL_Debates_191206_v2.pdf

All the Tories needed was that Johnson didn't have a car crash. Job done. Tory majority sorted.

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think there would likely be some truth in that for sure. I just get a vibe of a very community oriented place there and that could have contributed. My first visit was 1997 for grand national, year of the bomb scare, and the kindness and understanding of the locals astonished me. Hard to think it was a tory city a couple of decades before that!

Liverpool has far more in common with & is more like Dublin than London imho.
i speak as an avid REDS fan who visits there at least 10 times every year.

YNWA!

Joe_ Public

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

Liverpool has far more in common with & is more like Dublin than London imho.
i speak as an avid REDS fan who visits there at least 10 times every year.

YNWA!

I love how benitez went there and installed himself among the fabric there. Still has a house there afaik. Klopp seems the same. Just feels that kind of place.

Just checked and tories have 1 out of 15 seats on Merseyside. Hold southport and with just a 2k majority, will be hoping labour take it for the clean sweep.

Letwin_Larry

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I love how benitez went there and installed himself among the fabric there. Still has a house there afaik. Klopp seems the same. Just feels that kind of place.

Just checked and tories have 1 out of 15 seats on Merseyside. Hold southport and with just a 2k majority, will be hoping labour take it for the clean sweep.

yes Liverpudlians do not like people with any sense of entitlement, and are very cynical of authority figures. much like ourselves. hardly surprising given that half of them are of Irish decent.

sid waddell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm not a Liverpool fc fan or anything but have been to city a good few times and always found the people to be among the friendliest and most welcoming I've come across. That they have boris johnsons measure only makes me so much fonder of them. If they elected any more tories there I'd be truly devastated.

I am a Liverpool FC fan. Scousers are amazing. They don't suffer fools gladly, that's for sure. I think they're very similar to people in Glasgow and Belfast - the warmth, the humour, the innate toughness. Hardly a surprise given the massive Irish immigration. There used to be a joke, I'm pretty sure it's an urban myth, that Thatcher said to Haughey in the 1980s, "we'll give you back the North if you give us back Liverpool".

There won't ever be another Tory elected in Liverpool. Wirral West and Southport, where the Tories do usually have a chance, are the leafy middle and upper class hinterlands where the golf courses like Birkdale and Hoylake are. But outside those places, and in the city itself, the Tories are absolutely hated.

quokula wrote: »

I'm convinced that the effect Hillsborough had on Liverpool's trust in the right wing newspapers has translated to a completely unique political landscape there compared to the rest of England.

It definitely did, but it was already going that way. Scousers sort of pride themselves on being "the enemy within", to use a Thatcher term subverted. Liverpool suffered probably more than anywhere from Thatcher's cuts and then there was the whole Militant thing in the 1980s. "Boys From The Blackstuff" is a wonderful drama series from that time. As a city it has always had a fierce sense of itself and what it is, and why wouldn't it, it produced The Beatles! It elected an Irish Nationalist MP for over 40 years in the late 19th and early 20th century. I think the accent heightens that sense of self and community, nowhere else has anything similar, like if you go up the road to St Helens or Warrington the accent is completely different.

Part of it is definitely tied up with football too I think, not just Hillsborough, but the whole city revolves around football and particularly Liverpool FC (and of course there's Everton!), not just locally but the fact that it is a huge international institution puts the city on the map in the way other non-London cities in England, bar Manchester I suppose, aren't. The politics of the Liverpool supporters have evolved a lot over the years to a situation where the club and the whole culture around it is now firmly identified with the left and internationalism - there was a survey done a year or two back about the attitudes of supporters of Premier League clubs to Brexit and Liverpool were the second most Remain supporting at 77%, only behind Brighton. I honestly think that as Barcelona displays the "Catalonia is not Spain" banner when they play Real Madrid, Liverpool is genuinely not far away from that sort of thing as regards England. The Liverpool supporters booed God Save The Queen at the Community Shield back in August. You can't get much more of a two fingers than that. Liverpool is in England but it isn't of it.

To a lesser extent, I get a bit of a similar vibe about Manchester too. I think a lot or perhaps even most Mancunians consider themselves Mancunians first and English or British second, if they care about that at all. Support for the England team would be pretty lukewarm in Manchester but particularly Liverpool.

quokula

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Here is a full analysis of YouGov's opinion poll findings from tonight's debate.

Be mindful however that this sample of voters taken from these findings are very small. It amounts to only 1,322 people.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/06/yougov-due-release-bbc-debate-snap-poll-930pm?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=bbc_debate_results

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gci96le4hp/FULL_Debates_191206_v2.pdf

A couple of small reasons for optimism in there.

Corbyn came out in front among undecided voters, albeit by just 51 to 49.

Also, overall, when asked as an individual question rather than when asked to compare the two, more people actually said Corbyn did well than Johnson, and more people said Johnson did badly than Corbyn. Which doesn't really reconcile with the same set of people saying Johnson did better when asked to choose a winner, but when you see that the undecided voters preferred Corbyn there's probably a certain number of entrenched respondents who said Johnson did better regardless of anything. There would be entrenched respondents on both sides of course, but the effect for Johnson can be bigger as seen against the undecided cohort.

On demographics, they only surveyed 36 people in the 18-24 age bracket, 75% of whom favoured Corbyn, compared to 409 people over 65, 62% of whom favoured Johnson. They then weighted those samples to 50 and 394.

Over 65s turn out in higher numbers of course, but not by that much. In 2017 10% of voters were under 24 while 23% were over 65. So yougov are weighting it as if there are 8 times as many old voters as young voters, when really it should be 2 and a half times. Maybe they're weighting it by the number of each age bracket they expect to watch the debate, rather than the number they expect to vote, I don't know. But if it was weighted in accordance with the 2017 turnout demographics it would have made a huge difference in the final percentages in Corbyn's favour.

Not that a poll about a debate means all that much but I always find it interesting digging into the hard numbers behind the polling figures.

ArmaniJeanss

Southport in Liverpool is one where Labour or Libdem should have stood aside. All three parties got 25% plus in 2017 so a Lab/Lib alliance would likely have beaten the incumbent Conservative.
As a gesture it might have been a good one for Labour to step aside and get reciprocated somewhere else, but I accept that its difficult to tell a candidate and his team who live in the area to do this.

Don't think any of the Labour-held seats are in danger, would be pretty gutted if Johnson of all Tories was the one to gain in Liverpool.