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General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)
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interesting article in The Independent on the possible destabilizing effects of Brexit. makes for grim reading.
“The fact that western Europe’s three major powers – Britain, Germany and France – are all members of the EU has helped Europe to function in a stable way for many decades. Removing the UK from that triangular relationship is likely to change the delicate balances between member states and to ultimately weaken the union,” says Oxford University’s professor of European Studies, Timothy Garton Ash.
“What’s more, if, post-Brexit, there is ongoing tension between Britain and the EU, the UK may be tempted to try to divide and rule in Europe, thus further weakening the continent,” he says.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-europe-general-election-war-germany-france-stability-a9233181.html0 -
I'm not sure the European Union will be weakened much. I think it will prove far more harmful to the stability of the UK. Future historians I'm sure will be baffled that NI's unionists threw in their lot with Brexit, given its potential to reshape the dynamic on these islands.
An independent Scotland will certainly attempt to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible, while the EU have already made clear a reunification vote will see NI make an immediate return to the EU.
I think England and Wales will be the big losers from this in the long-term.0 -
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »I'm not sure the European Union will be weakened much. I think it will prove far more harmful to the stability of the UK. Future historians I'm sure will be baffled that NI's unionists threw in their lot with Brexit, given its potential to reshape the dynamic on these islands.
An independent Scotland will certainly attempt to rejoin the EU as quickly as possible, while the EU have already made clear a reunification vote will see NI make an immediate return to the EU.
I think England and Wales will be the big losers from this in the long-term.
Someone under the Indy article (correctly) points out that most of the English hard right and far right are on zimmer frames.0 -
A couple of small reasons for optimism in there.
Corbyn came out in front among undecided voters, albeit by just 51 to 49.
Also, overall, when asked as an individual question rather than when asked to compare the two, more people actually said Corbyn did well than Johnson, and more people said Johnson did badly than Corbyn. Which doesn't really reconcile with the same set of people saying Johnson did better when asked to choose a winner, but when you see that the undecided voters preferred Corbyn there's probably a certain number of entrenched respondents who said Johnson did better regardless of anything. There would be entrenched respondents on both sides of course, but the effect for Johnson can be bigger as seen against the undecided cohort.
On demographics, they only surveyed 36 people in the 18-24 age bracket, 75% of whom favoured Corbyn, compared to 409 people over 65, 62% of whom favoured Johnson. They then weighted those samples to 50 and 394.
Over 65s turn out in higher numbers of course, but not by that much. In 2017 10% of voters were under 24 while 23% were over 65. So yougov are weighting it as if there are 8 times as many old voters as young voters, when really it should be 2 and a half times. Maybe they're weighting it by the number of each age bracket they expect to watch the debate, rather than the number they expect to vote, I don't know. But if it was weighted in accordance with the 2017 turnout demographics it would have made a huge difference in the final percentages in Corbyn's favour.
Not that a poll about a debate means all that much but I always find it interesting digging into the hard numbers behind the polling figures.0 -
On substance, Corbyn won that hands down.
Mind you, the whole setup was light on substance - not a big fan of audiences (usually activists, clapping and all that malarkey)
Corbyn, a man who I admire, is patently lacking in one department for me and that's the killer instinct.
I know he prides himself on not making personal digs at opponents but unfortunately, he extends that to failing to deliver anything like a killer blow to his opponents shortcomings and considering the weaponry he has at his disposal in regards to Johnson and that party and that failure, this is why he needs to step down if Labour fail to win or fail to stop the calamity of a Johnson majority next week.0 -
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Thank god for Peter Oborne, one of the very few redeeming features of a political and media landscape that is turning more and more into a festering cesspit. The utter cheek of a former bbc editor, turned tory spin doctor, to call another channel out for bias. At least this channel corrected its error and apologised sincerely.
https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1202990867449044992?s=200 -
So i dont believe this has happened before in the UK - proper tactical system up and running to attack Boris Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEnYT4_K_I0
https://votesmart2019.com/
What do we think of the campaign for tactical voting in this election. The above links are to the Rally which took place yesterday which included a broad coalition of speakers - urging tactical voting on a seat my seat basis
Votemsart2019 is effectively an all-in-one Tactical Vote analysis which compares the recommendations for every seat in GB, from 7 different Remain analytical sites -
For northern Ireland it refuses to give an outright recommendation; but it does include each of the 7 sites which varyingly recommend Sinn Fein, Alliance or SDLP
Its actually a very well constructed site, iv played around with it for a bit. You just need to select a constituency and it- Gives an overall suggestion
- lists 7 Remain tactical Vote sites, highlighting their advice, and providing access to their methodology
- Explains that overall, this is designed to prevent a tory majority, as opposed to giving any one party an edge
- explains on a constituency by constituency basis, who has the best chance
So yea just wondering what we think
NOTE: Accidentally added this post, or one like it to a different thread - apologies, thats what i get for having 15 tabs open! lolSic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants
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So i dont believe this has happened before in the UK - proper tactical system up and running to attack Boris Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEnYT4_K_I0
https://votesmart2019.com/
What do we think of the campaign for tactical voting in this election. The above links are to the Rally which took place yesterday which included a broad coalition of speakers - urging tactical voting on a seat my seat basis
Votemsart2019 is effectively an all-in-one Tactical Vote analysis which compares the recommendations for every seat in GB, from 7 different Remain analytical sites -
For northern Ireland it refuses to give an outright recommendation; but it does include each of the 7 sites which varyingly recommend Sinn Fein, Alliance or SDLP
Its actually a very well constructed site, iv played around with it for a bit. You just need to select a constituency and it- Gives an overall suggestion
- lists 7 Remain tactical Vote sites, highlighting their advice, and providing access to their methodology
- Explains that overall, this is designed to prevent a tory majority, as opposed to giving any one party an edge
- explains on a constituency by constituency basis, who has the best chance
So yea just wondering what we think
NOTE: Accidentally added this post, or one like it to a different thread - apologies, thats what i get for having 15 tabs open! lol
I guess its the biggest remaining hope of stopping a tory majority so it cant be bad anyway. Saw figures stating up to 30% of voters are considering voting tactically which could be decisive given that figure is usually put at around 10%. There might be constituencies where they get it wrong but overall it will do some good, just impossible to say how decisive it could be.0 -
Latest poll released from PanelBaseMD - 4-6th December.
Again, no major difference.
Everything is pretty much static and stagnant, no swings - virtually nothing moving beyond one poll +1 and the next to reverse it.
I think after Corbyn's failure to land a blow at the final debate, it may just convince people that Johnson is the only viable "leader" the country has. Johnson is positive and upbeat about the future of the UK, whereas Corbyn is always miserable, negative, and complaining.
How can you enthuse voters to back your vision of the future if you are so morose and miserable? By all means attack the incumbent government, but at least be enthusiastic and energetic in your own personal vision.
I just don't see it with Corbyn at all.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/12030044093048217600 -
Deleted User wrote: »Latest poll released from PanelBaseMD - 4-6th December.
Again, no major difference.
Everything is pretty much static and stagnant, no swings - virtually nothing moving beyond one poll +1 and the next to reverse it.
I think after Corbyn's failure to land a blow at the final debate, it may just convince people that Johnson is the only viable "leader" the country has. Johnson is positive and upbeat about the future of the UK, whereas Corbyn is always miserable, negative, and complaining.
How can you enthuse voters to back your vision of the future if you are so morose and miserable? By all means attack the incumbent government, but at least be enthusiastic and energetic in your own personal vision.
I just don't see it with Corbyn at all.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203004409304821760
i agree it's game, set & match to Boris. and has been for some time imo. Lab have failed to inspire voters. There just is no real leadership there.
Corbyn has proven he is a light-weight.
What i find worrying is the extent to which he is being unwittingly spoon-fed by the Russians. Putin must be having a right good laugh.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Latest poll released from PanelBaseMD - 4-6th December.
Again, no major difference.
Everything is pretty much static and stagnant, no swings - virtually nothing moving beyond one poll +1 and the next to reverse it.
I think after Corbyn's failure to land a blow at the final debate, it may just convince people that Johnson is the only viable "leader" the country has. Johnson is positive and upbeat about the future of the UK, whereas Corbyn is always miserable, negative, and complaining.
How can you enthuse voters to back your vision of the future if you are so morose and miserable? By all means attack the incumbent government, but at least be enthusiastic and energetic in your own personal vision.
I just don't see it with Corbyn at all.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203004409304821760
And you dont believe his lies on Hospitals, Nurse numbers, the Northern Ireland Sea Trade barrier, will have any effect.
I guess i would ask you some straightforward questions Eskimo. And im going to be as impartial as i can. I understand where you stand in terms of support, and what your views are on Brexit etc.. and im not gonna bring those into play. I am also not going to offer link after link on the above. the various topics i raised are well documented on this thread and across the media.
What i will simply ask you are these questions. And as stated, polite, to the point, and genuine
Do you think that it is at all damaging to the credibility of the UK electorate that they dont take issue with some of Boris's obvious lies, and missteps
Do you believe the refusal to be interviewed by Andrew Neil is damaging?
As a Tory Supporter, if you could pick anyone besides Johnson to lead the party, who would it be and why?
Do you think that Boris will last a full term as PM, assuming he gets a majority... and If he doesnt get a majority, do you acknowledge that he is finished? (hypothetically assume he doesnt in this instance)Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants
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Do you think that it is at all damaging to the credibility of the UK electorate that they dont take issue with some of Boris's obvious lies, and missteps
Do you believe the refusal to be interviewed by Andrew Neil is damaging?
As a Tory Supporter, if you could pick anyone besides Johnson to lead the party, who would it be and why?
Do you think that Boris will last a full term as PM, assuming he gets a majority... and If he doesnt get a majority, do you acknowledge that he is finished? (hypothetically assume he doesnt in this instance)
From what I've seen, all politicians -- including Corbyn and Swinson -- have manipulated the truth, and outright misled the public, on many fronts. Johnson, too, is guilty of that charge. Once you accept that fact, you have to vote based on the approximate direction you'd like the country to take -- and, with Johnson, that's the direction I'd like the UK to take independent of what he states about the precise number of nurses or hospitals or police officers.
No, I don't think it will be damaging. The polls suggest that already, and the debate last night has already cast a shadow over Corbyn that negates any impact that the Neil Monologue had.
Personally, I think Johnson is the most charismatic and smartest leader it could have right now. But if he were to abdicate next week, I'd like to see someone such as Michael Gove take the helm. I think he has the knowledge, experience, and wit to perform the job quite well.
If Johnson doesn't secure a majority, then yes, my guess is that he will probably have to resign. Do I think he will last a full-term...that's a question that could be asked of any politician, as unexpected scandals and crises hit when you least expect them. At present, I'd probably verge on the side of saying he could weather a full-term.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »From what I've seen, all politicians -- including Corbyn and Swinson -- have manipulated the truth, and outright misled the public, on many fronts. Johnson, too, is guilty of that charge. Once you accept that fact, you have to vote based on the approximate direction you'd like the country to take -- and, with Johnson, that's the direction I'd like the UK to take independent of what he states about the precise number of nurses or hospitals or police officers.
No, I don't think it will be damaging. The polls suggest that already, and the debate last night has already cast a shadow over Corbyn that negates any impact that the Neil Monologue had.
Personally, I think Johnson is the most charismatic and smartest leader it could have right now. But if he were to abdicate next week, I'd like to see someone such as Michael Gove take the helm. I think he has the knowledge, experience, and wit to perform the job quite well.
If Johnson doesn't secure a majority, then yes, my guess is that he will probably have to resign. Do I think he will last a full-term...that's a question that could be asked of any politician, as unexpected scandals and crises hit when you least expect them. At present, I'd probably verge on the side of saying he could weather a full-term.
Ok its not unexpected and you were fairly straight up in your answers, so i respect that. I still think the refusal to debate Neil is a mistake and it hasnt completely gone away
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/dec/06/martin-rowson-on-andrew-neils-challenge-to-boris-johnson-cartoon
I think the debate too, my own view is that it didnt change anyones mind as such - or perhaps a few - give or take a vote each way
Your answer on Gove is interesting because once you remove the Soft Brexit Torys, he seems the most qualified (Mogg is just too anachronistic for me). But it is interesting because electing Johnson seems to suggest that politicians need no longer worry about having too much 'baggage' to achieve high office. When i say baggage im referring to past candidates around the world that have made catastrophic blunders in the past, and tended to drop out of political race's as a result
Anyway - il be waiting up all night on thursday (friday morning) - i dont need to tell you i am hoping for an upset! we shall have to wait and seeSic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants
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Deleted User wrote: »Once you accept that fact, you have to vote based on the approximate direction you'd like the country to take -- and, with Johnson, that's the direction I'd like the UK to take independent of what he states about the precise number of nurses or hospitals or police officers.
This is the bit that makes my brain hurt! How can you vote for someone who promises to take you in a certain direction when the very basis on which he makes those promises has been shown to be completely and utterly false, not just on one ancillary detail, but on the very essence of the project?
Were I to offer you first class flights to Australia, with all-inclusive 5-star accommodation during a four-week tour of Oz, and someone pointed out that the best I could offer in real life was a one-way passage on a trawler to Sardinia where I know there's a cheap B&B - would you still recommend me to all your friends?0 -
That website recommends I vote for Labour as it is a Labour marginal (with the SNP 265 behind in 2017 and current polls for the seat show SNP gain). I will ignore the website and vote SNP
My constitency is linked below
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Overall though, good website0 -
CelticRambler wrote: »This is the bit that makes my brain hurt! How can you vote for someone who promises to take you in a certain direction when the very basis on which he makes those promises has been shown to be completely and utterly false, not just on one ancillary detail, but on the very essence of the project?
Were I to offer you first class flights to Australia, with all-inclusive 5-star accommodation during a four-week tour of Oz, and someone pointed out that the best I could offer in real life was a one-way passage on a trawler to Sardinia where I know there's a cheap B&B - would you still recommend me to all your friends?
That's precisely why I wouldn't vote for Corbyn.
Corbyn is indeed offering that holiday -- but he wants to indebt an entire country to pay for what is a pure fantasy vacation.
No government will ever hit all their manifesto targets, but I prefer the free market, Brexit vision, over the socialist experiment any day of the week.0 -
This is the sort of stuff The Sun is now publishing, sourced from far right, anti-Semitic sources.
There are serious echoes of Nazi propaganda here in the way Labour left activists are portrayed in a similar type of way to how Jews were portrayed in the 1930s, complete with diagrams portraying the "tentacles" etc.
This is blatant fodder for the Thomas Mairs of this world. Where's the line where something crosses over into hate speech, one wonders?
https://twitter.com/trillingual/status/1203291719707635713
https://twitter.com/trillingual/status/1203293349320548352
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/12031549085114572810 -
Deleted User wrote: »That's precisely why I wouldn't vote for Corbyn.
Corbyn is indeed offering that holiday -- but he wants to indebt an entire country to pay for what is a pure fantasy vacation.
And there we go again. You cannot, ever - no matter how hard we try - justify voting for Johnson or anything he stands for; you seem to be entirely motivated by your hate for Corbyn.
Johnson is promising you a trip to Utopia in a gilded carriage pulled by a herd of unicorns. Utterly undeliverable - he himself can't even point to Utopia on a map - yet you'll vote for him because the other guy says he can take you to El Dorado in a Mercedes when everyone knows he means El Paso, in a Mini. Corbyn suffers from hyperbole, but Johnson is simply disingenuous.0 -
CelticRambler wrote: »And there we go again. You cannot, ever - no matter how hard we try - justify voting for Johnson or anything he stands for; you seem to be entirely motivated by your hate for Corbyn.
It's equal:- Johnson: pro-Brexit, pro-business, pro-Capitalism, pro-security, pro-UK.
- Corbyn: anti-Brexit, anti-business, anti-Capitalist, neutral-security, anti-UK.
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"Brexit vision."
Theres an oxymoron if ever i heard one. Taking back control, closing borders and getting tough on immigrants, talking vaguely of super duper trade deals all over the world might be many things, but vision it is not.
More like big financial hit to be back as supposed masters of our own destiny as some hard brexiteers have been honest enough to admit.0 -
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A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »That website recommends I vote for Labour as it is a Labour marginal (with the SNP 265 behind in 2017 and current polls for the seat show SNP gain). I will ignore the website and vote SNP
My constitency is linked below
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Overall though, good website
Yea i just check that - it tallied a few other tactical sites and came to Labour - but one of the Anti Brexit sites recommended SNP - i think this is just a case of a difference of opinion as to who will take the seatLABOUR
Vote Smart says: The Conservatives are highly unlikely to win here on December 12th. This seat is a contest between the SNP, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. We say, you can be comfortable voting for your preferred party.
I think probably the bit at the end of this piece, from Votesmart2019, is the telling part - coupled with the fact that the Torys are unlikely to win -
I SUSPECT the reason it recommends Labour, is that they are the incumbent -
Regardless that seems like a Remain Safe Zone
Its a good site i have checked marginals, and it discusses Luciana Berger, Dominic Grieve, Chuka, and other marginals in detail
The one area this site is sketchy on is Northern Ireland - but it at least highlights the remain options in that case
Im hoping it makes the difference i really am - anyone else play around with it>??Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants
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Im hoping it makes the difference i really am - anyone else play around with it>??
I would hazard that the majority of people using the site, which is a vanishingly small slice of the electorate, are those interminably glued to their screens all day --- such as Far-Left, abusive Corbynites -- who know precisely who to vote for regardless of what the website says. Similarly, die-hard Liberal Democrat voters and Remainers at large are fully aware of who they should hand their vote.
In other words, it will have a negligible impact.
Those who are aware of the site are most likely already aware of who to vote for in the upcoming election.0 -
Joe_ Public wrote: »"Brexit vision."
Theres an oxymoron if ever i heard one. Taking back control, closing borders and getting tough on immigrants, talking vaguely of super duper trade deals all over the world might be many things, but vision it is not.
More like big financial hit to be back as supposed masters of our own destiny as some hard brexiteers have been honest enough to admit.
Brexit has always been nothing more than a collection of mendacious slogans designed to appeal to people's worst base instincts.
It's the dystopian fantasy of right-wing nationalist, anarcho-capitalist asset strippers adopting the fake clothes of a slave trying to throw off their "chains".
It's about eternal fake victimhood and appealing to base ethno-nationalism.
Funny how most Scousers, who are mendaciously and viciously painted as "eternal victims" by the Tory right, saw right through this rot.0 -
sid waddell wrote: »Brexit Socialism has always been nothing more than a collection of mendacious slogans designed to appeal to people's worst base instincts.
It's the dystopian fantasy of left-wing, anarcho-socialist asset strippers adopting the fake clothes of a slave trying to throw off their "chains".
It's about eternal fake victimhood and appealing to base socialism.
Fixed. :rolleyes:0 -
Deleted User wrote: »I would hazard that the majority of people using the site, which is a vanishingly small slice of the electorate, are those interminably glued to their screens all day --- such as Far-Left, abusive Corbynites -- who know precisely who to vote for regardless of what the website says. Similarly, die-hard Liberal Democrat voters and Remainers at large are fully aware of who they should hand their vote.
In other words, it will have a negligible impact.
Those who are aware of the site are most likely already aware of who to vote for in the upcoming election.
https://votesmart2019.com/
Well look thats your opinion - and i accept it as that
The purpose of this site is to effectively offer a WORKAROUND for the lousy FPTP voting system - it asks the questions-
Are you in favor of Brexit?
Yes - well then you know what you are going to do so- fire away
NO - Second Question - are you willing to put Party Allegiance aside, for a chance to STOP BREXIT
Yes - Then here is who we believe you should vote for (based on polls, voting history, and tallied from several different sites)
You mention a small slice of the electorate - But Eskimo, in a FPTP election - a small slice CAN DENY THE TORYS A MAJORITY
The fact of the matter is, given Corbyn and Swinson, and other remain groups, inability to pact and work together, this is the only way to do it
Tactical Voting CAN beat FPTP - in theory - and a small % can swing this against johnsonSic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants
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sid waddell wrote: »Brexit has always been nothing more than a collection of mendacious slogans designed to appeal to people's worst base instincts.
It's the dystopian fantasy of right-wing nationalist, anarcho-capitalist asset strippers adopting the fake clothes of a slave trying to throw off their "chains".
It's about eternal fake victimhood and appealing to base ethno-nationalism.
Funny how most Scousers, who are mendaciously and viciously painted as "eternal victims" by the Tory right, saw right through this rot.
It was always a nutcase proposal made by cranks who wouldn't be capable of running a cake stall at a village fair, but Cameron opened up a hornet's nest by holding that blasted referendum.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »It's equal:
- Johnson: pro-Brexit, pro-business, pro-Capitalism, pro-security, pro-UK.
- Corbyn: anti-Brexit, anti-business, anti-Capitalist, neutral-security, anti-UK.
UK business is overwhelmingly anti-Brexit; Johnson's pro-Brexit-anti-FreeTrade stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-Brexit.
Brexit requires the UK to sever ties with the European institutions and mechanisms of most relevance to ensuring the UK's security over the coming decade, so Johnson's stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-seurity
Johnson has already decided that the U part of the UKofGB&NI can be sacrificed in favour of Brexit, and won't shut up about a forthcoming Scottish IndyRef2, so his stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-UK.
So that leaves him as a pro-Brexit capitalist (of the vulture variety). Which we already knew. Except, of course, that he has shown himself over the last three years to be vehemently anti-Brexit, voting against Theresa May's WA, then pulling his own Brexit WA as soon as it looked like it was going to succeed.
So he's just a vulture capitalist.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Fixed. :rolleyes:
Ah right, you're mendaciously editing people's posts now because you've run out of arguments.
There's a word for that.0 -
CelticRambler wrote: »UK business is overwhelmingly anti-Brexit; Johnson's pro-Brexit-anti-FreeTrade stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-Brexit.
Brexit requires the UK to sever ties with the European institutions and mechanisms of most relevance to ensuring the UK's security over the coming decade, so Johnson's stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-seurity
Johnson has already decided that the U part of the UKofGB&NI can be sacrificed in favour of Brexit, and won't shut up about a forthcoming Scottish IndyRef2, so his stance cannot be reconciled with being pro-UK.
So that leaves him as a pro-Brexit capitalist (of the vulture variety). Which we already knew. Except, of course, that he has shown himself over the last three years to be vehemently anti-Brexit, voting against Theresa May's WA, then pulling his own Brexit WA as soon as it looked like it was going to succeed.
So he's just a vulture capitalist.
He also literally said "F***k the families" (of the 7/7/2005 London bombings).0 -
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It was always a nutcase proposal made by cranks who wouldn't be capable of running a cake stall at a village fair, but Cameron opened up a hornet's nest by holding that blasted referendum.
he sure did and what a box of sh1 it has turned out to be.
i believe it will have a ripple effect that could be felt for decades.
it has already worked its' magic into most aspects of British society, divided families, communities, political parties. allegiances & loyalties torn asunder.
what has been noticeably absent is the distinct lack of leadership.
compare Corbyn & Johnson with Blair, Thatcher, Heseltine, even Major. talk about a pair of political pygmies. it's laughable.
the UK must now choose between an untrustworthy, lying, cheating spoofer and an uninspiring, backward looking, marxist lightweight.0
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