General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Strazdas

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

he sure did and what a box of sh1 it has turned out to be.
i believe it will have a ripple effect that could be felt for decades.

it has already worked its' magic into most aspects of British society, divided families, communities, political parties. allegiances & loyalties torn asunder.

what has been noticeably absent is the distinct lack of leadership.
compare Corbyn & Johnson with Blair, Thatcher, Heseltine, even Major. talk about a pair of political pygmies. it's laughable.

the UK must now choose between an untrustworthy, lying, cheating spoofer and an uninspiring, backward looking, marxist lightweight.

You'd have to think the lack of leadership and the broken system are the driving forces behind Brexit......Brexit would / will happen 'because' of this, not in spite of it.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

You'd have to think the lack of leadership and the broken system are the driving forces behind Brexit......Brexit would / will happen 'because' of this, not in spite of it.

If Johnson is as bad as posters here suggest, imagine how bad the opposition has to be if they are trailing 10-12 points behind in a General Election poll.

Any opposition worth their salt should be cleaning up in this election.

Corbyn can barely get his electoral trousers on; what a sad and pathetic indictment of his weak and indecisive "leadership".

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

If Johnson is as bad as posters here suggest, imagine how bad the opposition has to be if they are trailing 10-12 points behind in a General Election poll.

Any opposition worth their salt should be cleaning up in this election.

Corbyn can barely get his electoral trousers on.

It's a fair point. If you had a strong and dynamic opposition leader, he / she would be landing blow after blow on Johnson and making him look weak.

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

You'd have to think the lack of leadership and the broken system are the driving forces behind Brexit......Brexit would / will happen 'because' of this, not in spite of it.

i'm not sure. i think Brexit has been a huge political f-up, a mistake, a gaff, an accident, but because of the lack of true leaders, it has been allowed to runaway and get out of control.

these non-leaders have allowed the chancers, the opportunists to take over the controls, which they have gleefully done/will do. what other shisters will emerge from the undergrowth remains to be seen.

but as an observer i have to admit, it is highly entertaining.

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

It's a fair point. If you had a strong and dynamic opposition leader, he / she would be landing blow after blow on Johnson and making him look weak.

tbh i think the Tories could have put Jimmy Saville up as the next PM, and poor old Corbyn would fail to make any impact.
if he has an ounce of pride let alone honour he will resign after the exit polls emerge.

ArmaniJeanss

Interesting take from Lewis Goodall - Sky New writer, ex-Labour canvasser and looks at things very much from a Labour pov.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202982233520386048

tldr : pretty sure Labour are a good bit behind where they were on final weekend in 2017

prawnsambo

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Interesting take from Lewis Goodall - Sky New writer, ex-Labour canvasser and looks at things very much from a Labour pov.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202982233520386048

tldr : pretty sure Labour are a good bit behind where they were on final weekend in 2017

Just one bright spot seems to be the younger vote being quite enthusiastic about Labour.

Professor Moriarty

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

he sure did and what a box of sh1 it has turned out to be.
i believe it will have a ripple effect that could be felt for decades.

it has already worked its' magic into most aspects of British society, divided families, communities, political parties. allegiances & loyalties torn asunder.

what has been noticeably absent is the distinct lack of leadership.
compare Corbyn & Johnson with Blair, Thatcher, Heseltine, even Major. talk about a pair of political pygmies. it's laughable.

the UK must now choose between an untrustworthy, lying, cheating spoofer and an uninspiring, backward looking, marxist lightweight.

Compare Johnson and Corbyn with Varadkar and Martin.

Mr.Nice Guy

Johnson and co. might have to hold off opening the champagne if this poll is to be believed:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

Gap appears to be narrowing as the polling date approaches.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson and co. might have to hold off opening the champagne if this poll is to be believed:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

Gap appears to be narrowing as the polling date approaches.

is there a +-3 margin of error?

sid waddell

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson and co. might have to hold off opening the champagne if this poll is to be believed:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

Gap appears to be narrowing as the polling date approaches.

ComRes appear to be retaining their December 2/3 data as part of this data, as it says there.

So how has it moved four points in a couple of days?

Is the December 4/5 data weighted equally to the December 2/3 data?

There would have to have been a very big move for that to happen?

There was another poll yesterday or the day before which showed Labour four points up on their previous showing, wasn't there?

An Ciarraioch

sid waddell wrote: »

ComRes appear to be retaining their December 2/3 data as part of this data, as it says there.

So how has it moved four points in a couple of days?

Is the December 4/5 data weighted equally to the December 2/3 data?

There would have to have been a very big move for that to happen?

There was another poll yesterday or the day before which showed Labour four points up on their previous showing, wasn't there?

Strangely, the previous ComRes had shown all five major nationwide parties down 1%, so presumably either others or undecideds have moved en masse to Labour?

An Ciarraioch

On a different note, there are obviously a significant number of English and Scottish Catholics, but presumably as Irish voters in the UK are almost all Catholic, their percentages are similar to this graph?:

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Compare Johnson and Corbyn with Varadkar and Martin.

...and what? Am I supposed to be impressed with Martin, yesterday's man who was a minister in the worst Governments ever seen in Ireland, and has clung on since hoping we will forget?



With Varadkar, handed the job of Taoiseach and hasn't made a complete balls of it yet?


These are not exactly towering figures of Irish history.

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson and co. might have to hold off opening the champagne if this poll is to be believed:

Gap appears to be narrowing as the polling date approaches.

You cannot derive future voting trajectory as if it's a science.

Second, that poll you quoted shows a Tory majority of 345 -- why on Earth would you be celebrating that?

And if you go back and quote "appears to be narrowing", that's an absurd conclusion and something that you cannot draw from an outlier poll.

You're getting way, way ahead of yourself.

Here is another poll - from the same company - covering 4-5 December (far more accurate than 2-5 December):

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203375724700127232

I've repeatedly said there is almost no appetite for an independence referendum in Scotland.

Even if SNP win elections, it doesn't mean the majority of Scots a) want a poll or b) would vote independence.

Scots were told in 2014 it would be "once in a generation". Polls such as this prove why we should keep our commitment to that.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203252183774498816

Strazdas

Watching Ch.4 News vox pop from Rother Valley in Yorkshire. Lots of older Labour Leave types saying they will vote for the Conservatives as they don't like Corbyn and think he is "betraying democracy".

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

Watching Ch.4 News vox pop from Rother Valley in Yorkshire. Lots of older Labour Leave types saying they will vote for the Conservatives as they don't like Corbyn and think he is "betraying democracy".

i saw that earlier, and if it's borne out come the 12th then Boris is home 'n hosed. make no mistake this election is all about Brexit.

Corbyn kinda reminds me of Jimmy Carter. no i'm not talking about the US President. but football fans will know to whom i refer.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

If Johnson is as bad as posters here suggest, imagine how bad the opposition has to be if they are trailing 10-12 points behind in a General Election poll.

Nope, that's not an accurate interpretation. You're forgetting that this election is being run under FPTP, which does not reward "good" politicians - it encourages and rewards negative campaigning and outright tribalism.

If anything, the poll values show how bad the electorate is: so many voters (like yourself) who are completely unable to list strong, fact-based arguments in favour of your preferred candidate; instead constantly falling back on the "but Corbyn" defence.

It doesn't really matter what qualities an opposition leader has if the electorate is so brain-dead/indoctrinated/overwhelmed with lies and distraction that they pick the party led by the noisiest fool instead of candidates demonstrating qualities of dignity and intelligence.

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

Watching Ch.4 News vox pop from Rother Valley in Yorkshire. Lots of older Labour Leave types saying they will vote for the Conservatives as they don't like Corbyn and think he is "betraying democracy".

Yes, well what Corbyn is advocating is that the UK should elect Labour, and that will mean Labour renegotiating the deal and putting it to a public referendum once again. Which is fine, except that he's never been able to convince the public why it is that the deal *needs* to be renegotiated. He's given reasons like workers rights and the NHS, but these haven't really captured the public imagination. I think the British public should be very concerned over plans to further deconstruct what is one of the great British institutions and a shining example of putting certain values above profit, but here we are.

His waving around of the papers showing that there will indeed be customs checks between GB and NI further demonstrates that his arguments on Brexit are weak. Brexit voters in GB couldn't give two shiny sh*tes about NI, as long as they get their Brexit.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

Yes, well what Corbyn is advocating is that the UK should elect Labour, and that will mean Labour renegotiating the deal and putting it to a public referendum once again. Which is fine, except that he's never been able to convince the public why it is that the deal *needs* to be renegotiated. He's given reasons like workers rights and the NHS, but these haven't really captured the public imagination. I think the British public should be very concerned over plans to further deconstruct what is one of the great British institutions and a shining example of putting certain values above profit, but here we are.

His waving around of the papers showing that there will indeed be customs checks between GB and NI further demonstrates that his arguments on Brexit are weak. Brexit voters in GB couldn't give two shiny sh*tes about NI, as long as they get their Brexit.

That is the gist of what they are saying. They believe even the holding of a second referendum would be profoundly "undemocratic", never mind the result being overturned.

Letwin_Larry

Lab's only hope is that there is some big revelation in tomorrows papers. it will need to be monumental, but i reckon they're into straw clutching terrority now.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

No link dumps or one liners please.

Latest polls from Opinium Research (4-6 December) show that the Conservatives are on 46 percent, with Labour languishing behind on 31% - an enormous 15 point lead for the Conservative Party.

I think these inconsistent polls are actually a positive thing for the Tories.

In 2017, poll results were pretty static. With these poll results, the lead for the Tories is spread between 7-15 points. It's more likely, then, that the truth lurks between those figures.

Unlike 2017, we're not seeing a Corbyn surge either. It's very much static or, based on this poll, outright falling.

Hopefully tomorrows news reveals more about the Russian-leaked NHS papers that Corbyn hijacked for political gain. If established, it could prove electorally damaging for the Labour Party.

sid waddell

Gary Neville has called out Boris Johnson for rhetoric which enables and encourages racism in society at large after the racist incident involving a spectator at the Manchester derby match this evening.

He's dead right too.

Mr.Nice Guy

Strazdas wrote: »

Watching Ch.4 News vox pop from Rother Valley in Yorkshire. Lots of older Labour Leave types saying they will vote for the Conservatives as they don't like Corbyn and think he is "betraying democracy".

Saw that as well and it doesn't bode well for Corbyn's chances. Whenever I see those vox pops I don't hear much said by the general public on the actual manifestos. It's either about Brexit, or about personalities. Given the fact that going into the election the UK electorate were wary of Labour's Brexit plan, and Corbyn's personality, it's hard to avoid the sense that the Tories have succeeded in fighting this on their preferred terrain.

briany

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Saw that as well and it doesn't bode well for Corbyn's chances. Whenever I see those vox pops I don't hear much said by the general public on the actual manifestos. It's either about Brexit, or about personalities. Given the fact that going into the election the UK electorate were wary of Labour's Brexit plan, and Corbyn's personality, it's hard to avoid the sense that the Tories have succeeded in fighting this on their preferred terrain.

It's pretty much only 2 short months ago that Corbyn and Labour were expecting to be the 'deal' party in any forthcoming election, but Johnson swooped in and pulled the rug out from under that belief. It's left LAB with precious little to work with.

Still, I do not expect Brexit to be in any way done so long as the Conservatives are in charge. I'm mightily suspicious as to why the ERG are behind it when they previously kiboshed any deal that would weaken their precious union. And what happened to the cries that Johnson's deal was really just May's deal with a new coat of paint?

My suspicion is that the ink on the deal wouldn't even be dried and the Conservative government would be drawing its figurative crossed fingers out from behind it's back to say to the EU, "Oh, haha. Fooled you."

I wish I knew some Tories. Especially the working and middle class ones. I would love to ask them, "How better off are you in 2019 than you were in 2009, directly because of action from the Tory Governments of the last ten years?" Nevermind Labour or any other party, what have the Tory party done in the last 10 years to earn your vote?

hometruths

CelticRambler wrote: »

If anything, the poll values show how bad the electorate is: so many voters (like yourself) who are completely unable to list strong, fact-based arguments in favour of your preferred candidate; instead constantly falling back on the "but Corbyn" defence.

It doesn't really matter what qualities an opposition leader has if the electorate is so brain-dead/indoctrinated/overwhelmed with lies and distraction that they pick the party led by the noisiest fool instead of candidates demonstrating qualities of dignity and intelligence.

If you think that that a proportion of the electorate is brain dead, indoctrinated and overwhelmed, presumably the inference of your post is you also think there is a proportion smart enough to be none of the above - i.e Corbyn voters, voting for dignity and intelligence? Approx 30-35% depending on the polls margin of error?

Or do you think it is a smaller subset of Corbyn's support that are resisting the indoctrination etc?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I wish I knew some Tories. Especially the working and middle class ones. I would love to ask them, "How better off are you in 2019 than you were in 2009, directly because of action from the Tory Governments of the last ten years?" Nevermind Labour or any other party, what have the Tory party done in the last 10 years to earn your vote?

That's a fair question.

If I were them (as a Brexit supporter), I imagine the type of answers you'd receive would be something that parallels:

1) Democracy matters more, and we want our result implemented. We're willing to hold our nose and vote Conservative to "right that wrong".

2) We didn't vote Brexit on economic grounds. We voted to gain control of our laws, borders, and monies. Even though the Conservative Party are far from perfect and do not always align with our values, they are willing to give us our laws, borders, and monies. Then, we can opt for another party at some point in the future once the aforementioned has been achieved.

3) We cannot vote for a party -- the Labour Party -- in its current form given the anti-Semitic poison that now pervades the party. The Labour Party used to be about the working man or woman, now it's about political correctness and ignoring traditional Labour supporters who happen to oppose remaining within the EU.

I'm not justifying their answer, but I imagine that's what you'd hear.