General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Professor Moriarty

Rjd2 wrote: »

I assume he would step down if we get a tory majority. Obviously losing 2 elections would haunt him, but he and his supporters will take some heart from the fact that his style of politics is entrenched in the party.

I see the bookies have Starmer fav,,,he's very impressive but its very tricky to know how popular he is with the base of the party. I could see the identity politics obsessed on the left crucifying him unfortunately.

Long Bailey second fav and probably should be fav tbh. Young, female and would definitely be someone the left of the party could get behind.

Can't see anyone else challenging, Piddock not well known enough, Cooper, Thornberry and Philips will be cheered by the media but have absolutely zero chance of winning a members vote.

Could also speculate about who would replace Boris if he doesn't get it done on Thursday.,,can't imagine wealthy donars will be in a forgiving mood if we get some sort of lefty alliance at the end of this.

Conservative majority now at 1/3. Could have got it at 4/5 a few weeks ago.

sid waddell

Aegir wrote: »

nice ad hominem.

when someone makes a point that I disagree with, I challenge it and put my points together, such as the one about PISA. When people can't get their points across and claim it is because others are uneducated, it is bordering on fascism, or fanaticism. that king of attitude is what gives people the confirmation that the people are too stupid to govern themselves and needs someone like them, who is intellectually suprior, to do it for them.

Similarly, like when you are challenged on a point and struggle for a come back, resort to ad hominem and accusations.

You made the ad hominem. You're doing it again here. At least own it.

Also you don't have a clue what fascism is.

sid waddell

sid waddell wrote: »

You made the ad hominem. You're doing it again here. At least own it.

Also you don't have a clue what fascism is.

Why’s that, because I’m not educated enough?

Sorry, what am I supposed to own? I’ve made a point, can you not even address that?

Leroy42

Ah jeez, stop will all this uneducated nonsense. Education has nothing to do with it.

Clearly the information is out there showing how bad Brexit is actually going to be. People, all of education levels, are choosing to ignore.

Whether that is simply not caring, not bothering, or simply being conned, education has nothing to do with it.

But when the PM, and the person leading the charge for Brexit, can only come up with Live Animals Transport and tax on tampon as the only benefits to Brexit, despite spending 3 years and 6bn already, then I would think that is a combination of all three.

sid waddell

Aegir wrote: »

Why’s that, because I’m not educated enough?

Sorry, what am I supposed to own? I’ve made a point, can you not even address that?

Well, you said it...

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ah jeez, stop will all this uneducated nonsense. Education has nothing to do with it.

Clearly the information is out there showing how bad Brexit is actually going to be. People, all of education levels, are choosing to ignore.

Whether that is simply not caring, not bothering, or simply being conned, education has nothing to do with it.

But when the PM, and the person leading the charge for Brexit, can only come up with Live Animals Transport and tax on tampon as the only benefits to Brexit, despite spending 3 years and 6bn already, then I would think that is a combination of all three.

Also, the point that many people have made about Brexit and being politically uninformed is that Remainers were equally ignorant and ill informed.

Holding such a referendum in a country which is totally disinterested in politics and with virtually zero history of referendums was a recipe for disaster.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Also, the point that many people have made about Brexit and being politically uninformed is that Remainers were equally ignorant and ill informed.

Holding such a referendum in a country which is totally disinterested in politics and with virtually zero history of referendums was a recipe for disaster.

Research shows that Leave voters were not as educated as Remain voters.

hometruths

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Research shows that Leave voters were not as educated as Remain voters.

Interesting. The same research casts doubt on the Cambridge Analytica effect

We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internett

ancapailldorcha

Aegir wrote: »

Why’s that, because I’m not educated enough?

Sorry, what am I supposed to own? I’ve made a point, can you not even address that?

sid waddell wrote: »

Well, you said it...

Enough of this please.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Research shows that Leave voters were not as educated as Remain voters.

I would argue that one of the main reasons Brexit ran into massive difficulties is that the UK has virtually no history of national referendums. The public voted to maintain the status quo in 1975 and the modern electorate doesn't seem to understand the role or status of referendum (and with politicians and the media making absolutely no effort to educate them - they probably don't even understand it themselves).

Letwin_Larry

Rjd2 wrote: »

I assume he would step down if we get a tory majority. Obviously losing 2 elections would haunt him, but he and his supporters will take some heart from the fact that his style of politics is entrenched in the party.

I see the bookies have Starmer fav,,,he's very impressive but its very tricky to know how popular he is with the base of the party. I could see the identity politics obsessed on the left crucifying him unfortunately.

Long Bailey second fav and probably should be fav tbh. Young, female and would definitely be someone the left of the party could get behind.

Can't see anyone else challenging, Piddock not well known enough, Cooper, Thornberry and Philips will be cheered by the media but have absolutely zero chance of winning a members vote.

Could also speculate about who would replace Boris if he doesn't get it done on Thursday.,,can't imagine wealthy donars will be in a forgiving mood if we get some sort of lefty alliance at the end of this.

assuming the Tories get an overall majority, i cant see how Corbyn can stay on.

droidus

One thing is clear, if the Tories do make it back in, particularly this hard right incarnation of the party, then life in the UK is going to become untenable for millions.

Austerity has been disastrous. Over 17,000 sick people have died after being declared fit for work. Child poverty is predicted to hit 40% by 2022. At least 320,000 people are homeless. The erosion of the NHS has led to unprecedented waiting times. Cutbacks in police and social services has led to an acceleration in the breakdown of security and society in general. As they say - the cruelty is the point.

A hard Brexit will massively exacerbate these trends and probably be the death knell for the NHS. Inequality will skyrocket as living standards drop and the cost of living increases. The inevitable breakup of the UK that follows will further destabilise society. Most alarmingly, elements of the Tory manifesto promise a degradation of British democratic norms and combined with FPTP, a toxic billionaire owned media and the effective evisceration of BBC impartiality may signal the end of British democracy (already deeply compromised) as we know it.

That's before we look at British foreign policy, their deep culpability of the deaths of tens of thousands of children in Yemen, constant and unapologetic support for dictatorial regimes and their status as the 2nd biggest arms dealer in the world.

Its not simply that Boris will be another Trump. A deeply racist, ruthless and narcissistic clown, but Brexit has also dragged the Tory party into far right territory in recent years, as evidenced by their immigration policy and the abhorrent windrush scandal.

Put these elements together and it is not unreasonable to imagine that Britain may well fall into fascism (and I don't use the term lightly). All the elements are already in place, and this election could be the catalyst for a series of events which makes the transformation inevitable.

Why anybody with an ounce of humanity would advocate this outcome is beyond me.

quokula

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

assuming the Tories get an overall majority, i cant see how Corbyn can stay on.

And if the Tories don’t get a majority, I don’t see how Johnson can stay on.

This is hardly groundbreaking or shocking is it? It’s what political parties do.

McGiver

Aegir wrote:

you said there were loads of stats about how the British suffer from a lack of education. When asked for evidence, you relied on a quiz about the european union, but claimed that PISA is not a good indication of education standards.

I explained exactly the irrelevance of the the PISA report - it assesses 15 year olds, who are obviously irrelevant to this discussion. We're talking about voters. But if you insist - PISA measures very narrow skills namely Reading, Maths and Science. None of these relate to the quality of the general knowledge one may have, especially history, civic education and politics.

The "quiz" was done by the EU, it's from the Eurobarometer report .

And the other piece was a research by UK in a Changing Europe and Ipsos MORI. I

quokula

droidus wrote: »

One thing is clear, if the Tories do make it back in, particularly this hard right incarnation of the party, then life in the UK is going to become untenable for millions.

Austerity has been disastrous. Over 17,000 sick people have died after being declared fit for work. Child poverty is predicted to hit 40% by 2022. At least 320,000 people are homeless. The erosion of the NHS has led to unprecedented waiting times. Cutbacks in police and social services has led to an acceleration in the breakdown of security and society in general. As they say - the cruelty is the point.

A hard Brexit will massively exacerbate these trends and probably be the death knell for the NHS. Inequality will skyrocket as living standards drop and the cost of living increases. The inevitable breakup of the UK that follows will further destabilise society. Most alarmingly, elements of the Tory manifesto promise a degradation of British democratic norms and combined with FPTP, a toxic billionaire owned media and the effective evisceration of BBC impartiality may signal the end of British democracy (already deeply compromised) as we know it.

That's before we look at British foreign policy, their deep culpability of the deaths of tens of thousands of children in Yemen, constant and unapologetic support for dictatorial regimes and their status as the 2nd biggest arms dealer in the world.

Its not simply that Boris will be another Trump. A deeply racist, ruthless and narcissistic clown, but Brexit has also dragged the Tory party into far right territory in recent years, as evidenced by their immigration policy and the abhorrent windrush scandal.

Put these elements together and it is not unreasonable to imagine that Britain may well fall into fascism (and I don't use the term lightly). All the elements are already in place, and this election could be the catalyst for a series of events which makes the transformation inevitable.

Why anybody with an ounce of humanity would advocate this outcome is beyond me.

Well said. Sometimes people treat this as an academic exercise, or a sport to cheer on one side against another. But it’s so much more important than that - the amount of real human suffering that a Tory government will create (and has been creating for some time) in contrasts to the efforts of a Labour government to improve people’s lives. The contrast is stark.

And you didn’t even mention the difference in climate change policies that will create the starkest difference of all in the long run.

McGiver

schmittel wrote:

Interesting. The same research casts doubt on the Cambridge Analytica effect

That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.

Joe_ Public

Interesting thing about this election is that tories are behind labour and lib dems when it comes to online advertising spending. At least it was when i last read about it. Labour were racking up £40k per day on Facebook and the like and winning the viral war. I dont know does that mean the tories dont believe its worth spending big sums on but they will be launching a huge online assault over last few days so maybe just a case of keeping their powder dry.

Letwin_Larry

quokula wrote: »

And if the Tories don’t get a majority, I don’t see how Johnson can stay on.

This is hardly groundbreaking or shocking is it? It’s what political parties do.

point taken, but it is Johnson's to lose imo. i cant see the UK electorate being so foolish as to elect Corbyn.

it would be like us voting yer man Richard Boyd Barrett as Taoiseach!:eek:
i mean how likely would that be. really?

McGiver

Letwin_Larry wrote:

point taken, but it is Johnson's to lose imo. i cant see the UK electorate being so foolish as to elect Corbyn.

Nobody expects Corbyn to be elected.
It's either a hung parliament or a tory majority.

droidus

quokula wrote: »

And you didn’t even mention the difference in climate change policies that will create the starkest difference of all in the long run.

In the medium term even. I fully expect the social, economic and political effects of climate change to start impacting the UK in the next five years.

Still, I could be very wrong, and Im as pessimistic as the next person but I have a feeling this isn't going to be as cut and dried as some people think it will be. There's still a significant chance of a hung parliament, and the slim possibility of a Labour minority. Trump only had a 1 in 3 chance of victory after all.

ArmaniJeanss

Survation.

CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

Turn out the lights.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

That's wrong. I have personal experience of older people who trust basically everything showing up on the Internet or sent to them via spam email. They've don't have to use Internet frequently at all to further harden and confirm their opinions, which is how Putin style CA electronic propaganda & manipulation work - keep people stuck in their confirmation bias bubbles and amplify it, basically show them what they want to see.

And Brexit totally lends itself to confirmation bias. As people actively voted for it (in 'the decision of a generation' no less), it becomes difficult in the extreme to row back on that vote or admit they might possibly have been wrong. Instead, most people will double down on the decision and find all sorts of reasons, no matter how far fetched or illogical, to justify it.

Strazdas

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Survation.

CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)

Turn out the lights.

I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.

And an 'anti-semite', you'd have to wonder what that is really all about.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

And an 'anti-semite', you'd have to wonder what that is really all about.

They probably don't believe any of that stuff themselves (and couldn't give a hoot about Britain's Jewish community).

Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

Letwin_Larry

McGiver wrote: »

Nobody expects Corbyn to be elected.
It's either a hung parliament or a tory majority.

personally i think it would be foolish to assume anything about this election.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Just out of interest, i looked up earlier that there is 260,000 Jews in the UK and 3.3 million Muslims in the UK.

Anyone here have any idea why the noise level on Labour's anti-Semitism, which they apologized for, and are now (finally) investigating is so much louder than the Tory's relentless Islamophobia? Which has never been apologised, or investigated?

It's shared by their buddies in the right wing press and by many of their voters. Jewish people are decent skins whilst Muslims are bad eggs and "dangerous".

The cynic would suggest that their Islamophobia is sometimes pursued as a vote winner.

Letwin_Larry

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm guessing the relentless media assault on Corbyn as a maniac and extremist is paying off.

yes there's no question he is a proven electoral liability.

CrabRevolution

While it's true that the British media just perpetually lambast him and really milk the "anti semitism" accusations, why do people immediately assume that Corbyn would be doing much better if the media left him alone?

It's not like his policies or track record are objectively great and hence it must be the media's fault he's doing poorly. Perhaps his ideas just don't resonate or inspire voters.