Deprogramming Verona Murphy

road_high

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Has anyone got the stats for candidates ,of the party in government winning by elections, it's pretty rare I think

They were talking about it pre election and it virtually never ever happens

Loafing Oaf

road_high wrote: »

All parties have their core votes- so that’s a red herring. Vanilla Mr Byrne has ran in numerous elections for example

Yeah but Fine Gael's and Fianna Fail's is higher than anybody else's in any constituency outside Dublin. Somehow I doubt if a Maria Walsh-type candidate had trailed in third behind Labour in Wexford that you'd be hailing that as a ringing endorsement of PC liberalism...

road_high

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah but Fine Gael's and Fianna Fail's is higher than anybody else's in any constituency outside Dublin. Somehow I doubt if a Maria Walsh-type candidate had trailed in third behind Labour in Wexford that you'd be hailing that as a ringing endorsement of PC liberalism...

Second highest no 1 tally- there was quite a crowded lefty field including Green, Labour, SF, PBP- these misery merchants never transfer to FG so in a PR system she came third. There was no big backlash against her despite attempts to dress it up as such (basically another extension of the deluded RTE type PC groupthink)

is_that_so

road_high wrote: »

They were talking about it pre election and it virtually never ever happens

There's a list of them here. Incumbents generally don't expect to do well but it does depend on the candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_D%C3%A1il_by-elections

is_that_so

road_high wrote: »

Second highest no 1 tally- there was quite a crowded lefty field including Green, Labour, SF, PBP- these misery merchants never transfer to FG so in a PR system she came third. There was no big backlash against her despite attempts to dress it up as such (basically another extension of the deluded RTE type PC groupthink)

Single seat by elections are no real measure of support, especially with such poor turnout. Byrne was expected to do well and it would have been a disappointment for him not to get in.

road_high

is_that_so wrote: »

Single seat by elections are no real measure of support, especially with such poor turnout. Byrne was expected to do well and it would have been a disappointment for him not to get in.

Indeed. He’s been a local Cllr for years and ran in numerous high profile elections including Europe- he has an already built voter base to start off and is seen as likeable and inoffensive and never says anything off script

ThunbergsAreGo

alastair wrote: »

Where was the ‘deprogramming’ supposed to take place then?

Please show me the quote where she said all asylum seekers must be detained in a camp in order to be deprogrammed?

Please show me the quote where she says this is what she wants to happen

Augme

no.8 wrote: »

ever This PC BS today is causing a massive rift to open. There is no such thing as free speech, unless you fit the populist bill.

Bizarre statement. Peter Casey and Veronica Murphy both exercised their free speech.

alastair

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Please show me the quote where she said all asylum seekers must be detained in a camp in order to be deprogrammed?

Please show me the quote where she says this is what she wants to happen

Again - where did she want the ‘deprogramming’ to take place?

Loafing Oaf

I'm doubtful that she'll actually run as an independent. She already has a national platform as IRHA head; what could she hope to achieve as a solo TD? Does she really want to be Wexford's Michael Lowry?

Faugheen

Love the way people still don’t get that ‘free speech’ works both ways.

If Casey and Murphy wish to say what they want, nobody is stopping them, but people can also say what they want in response.

FionnK86

Stupid of Taoiseach to lower himself to comment further on this, he should've let her disappear but now she'll be back as 'the candidate who p*ssed of the Taoiseach'. It's making FG look very petty with Donohue, Varadkar and Harris all getting involved.

It's not a rise of the right in Ireland, it's just a gobdaw trying to raise votes by jumping onto bandwagon of whoever will help her cause, wouldn't be surprised if she's on a FF or PBP ticket.

They've better things to be doing in run up to christmas then comment on this.

PatrickSmithUS

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

The only candidate gonna transfer to her is the Irexit crazy woman

If she runs as an Independent she'll mop up transfers around the Hook Peninsula and across to Rosslare.



FF standing Michael Sheehan will work out well for her.

McMurphy

Been confirmed that she intends to run as an independent in the election.

zell12

jimgoose

McMurphy wrote: »

Been confirmed that she intends to run as an independent in the election.

Bloody woman will probably splot the FG vote over there, to some extent.

Loafing Oaf

zell12 wrote: »

She got the most FPVs of the three FG Wexford by-election candidates?
Is this like the three Joe Duffys?


And what do you think of immigrants Verona? Well I think they're bad news Verona...

L1011

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

She got the most FPVs of the three FG Wexford by-election candidates?
Is this like the three Joe Duffys?


And what do you think of immigrants Verona? Well I think they're bad news Verona...

I think they mean she got more FPVs than any of the 3 in 2016 did; but that's ignoring the obvious thing - there were THREE of them.

They got about 16k votes in 2016; albeit on a vastly higher turnout.

Augme

If she couldn't get in last time, what makes her think this will be any different?

Snow Garden

Augme wrote: »

If she couldn't get in last time, what makes her think this will be any different?

A general election is very different to a by-election.

L1011

Augme wrote: »

If she couldn't get in last time, what makes her think this will be any different?

Five seats up. She came third.

However, a substantial element of that was an FG vote and they'll be running three again. If she takes votes off them but they transfer back at elimination its not even that much of a risk for them.

You can't map the results to a GE due to different candidates and multiple candidates. The Greens came 5th in the by election but will be looking at a vastly lower position possibly behind all of 3 FF, 3 FG, 2 Lab and Murphy for instance.

Loafing Oaf

L1011 wrote: »

Five seats up. She came third.

However, a substantial element of that was an FG vote and they'll be running three again. If she takes votes off them but they transfer back at elimination its not even that much of a risk for them.

You can't map the results to a GE due to different candidates and multiple candidates. The Greens came 5th in the by election but will be looking at a vastly lower position possibly behind all of 3 FF, 3 FG, 2 Lab and Murphy for instance.

Yes, more difficult in some ways, easier in others for an independent to win a seat in a GE as opposed to a by-election...

Faugheen

L1011 wrote: »

Five seats up. She came third.

However, a substantial element of that was an FG vote and they'll be running three again. If she takes votes off them but they transfer back at elimination its not even that much of a risk for them.

Exactly. It’s completely different. James Browne, Brendan Howlin will all take votes off her, and one thing the bye-election showed is that she is not transfer friendly.

She’ll take votes off Paul Kehoe and Michael D’Arcy but it won’t be enough for her to get elected. She won’t even be close.

James Brown

I hope she gets nothing. If she gets in it'll be a Lowry situation. FG in everything bar name.

PatrickSmithUS

Lot of misinformed stuff here.

First of all she never mentioned race. It's nuts to say that someone who supports for immigration and asylum applicants, when it is done right, is either racist or xenophobic. All she did was highlight a security need based on whats she's learned during her time as president of the road haulage association, briefings with Interpol and MI5 arranged by the EU Commissions and the connected visits to the Calais camp. In particular she highlighted the lack of adequate security at Cherbourg as an issue for Rosslare Port.

In relation to the by election the final positions matter little aside from first preferences. It was always going to be tough defeating Byrne and parties of the Govt rarely transfer well in by elections. Lawlor was always going to take the majority of transfers from those eliminated. The FG mishandling and silencing of Verona, basically not allowing her to explain herself, was scandalous and killed the campaign from that moment.

Right now she'll take most of the votes in the Hook Peninsula, more than she would have as a FG candidate. She'll get more transfers from FFers as well. If she takes 5,0009+ first preferences and Carthy is eliminated first she has a great chance.

keano_afc

She raised legitimate concerns about immigration and quite rightly highlighted the case of the missing asylum seekers to back up her point.

She ripped into Simon Harris.

What has she said thats racist? Genuine question.

is_that_so

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I hope she gets nothing. If she gets in it'll be a Lowry situation. FG in everything bar name.

Except they have another person under the FG banner. Voters didn't want her when she under their banner so why would they suddenly change their mind a few months later?

PatrickSmithUS

is_that_so wrote: »

Except they have another person under the FG banner. Voters didn't want her when she under their banner so why would they suddenly change their mind a few months later?

You do realise that she got more than 9,000 first preference votes don't you?

is_that_so

PatrickSmithUS wrote: »

You do realise that she got more than 9,000 first preference votes don't you?

As a FG candidate and with a FG vote. She still lost by a third of that. She cannot mount a campaign on her own against their party machine. Just on numbers I'd say 2 FG, 2 FF and 1 Labour.

weldoninhio

keano_afc wrote: »

She raised legitimate concerns about immigration and quite rightly highlighted the case of the missing asylum seekers to back up her point.

She ripped into Simon Harris.

What has she said thats racist? Genuine question.

She brought this up on the Tonight Show the other night. Paschal stated that illegally immigrants entering Ireland with no paperwork were not a security risk.