FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

pad199207

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

If those charts are the exact same by say Saturday, that would be a serious event with a threat to life.

There could hardly be upgrades with that

Donegal Storm

Nice, probably the first run all season that's worthy of being posted in this thread!




I remember a very similar looking storm on the models maybe 8 or 9 years ago, was still there until around 120h but ended up a much weaker system and hit northern France


Edit: Quite impressed with my memory there I have to say :pac:

Gonzo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

it would be something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

With more than a week to go it will more than likely not be as powerful as what is represented tonight and will either side swipe us to the north/south or miss us entirely.

Meteorite58

Gonzo wrote: »

it would be something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

With more than a week to go it will more than likely not be as powerful as what is represented tonight and will either side swipe us to the north/south or miss us entirely.

Bit off topic, I was working in England around then, had come back to Ireland when it struck and arrived back in the UK the day after or so. Never saw anything like it, the town I was in looked like a bomb went off, and it very much inland in Buckinghamshire. Knocked millions of trees.

But I dare say if those charts verified it would be worse, huge structural damage!

This is the FI thread and must be realistic though, it is too far away to know for sure, could see it drifted and weakened on the 06Z.

Gonzo

next week has the potential to see the most significant weather event since the Beast From The East, except this will be a very different beast, not so much if anything in the way of a proper snow event but could be quite stormy and very wet coupled with a frigid windchill and maybe a wintry mix.

Tonight's pub run is sensational stuff that is so over the top, the likelyhood of this happening is very slim indeed. We will probably see a much reduced version of this in reality or we may see nothing at all. But lets look at tonight's run and see what they are showing.

Windchill temperatures could be more like something you'd expect from an easterly, this is down to a cold zonal flow and very strong winds. Tonights GFS is showing a windchill between -5C and -9C:



The 10th of February (the day before the storm) looks quite wintry, but the GFS tends to completely overcook these situations by a mile.



Not much snow for us away from high ground on the 11th, but Northern Ireland and especially Scotland could see quite a bit of snow next week:



The 11th starts off chilly, but temperatures quickly rise as the day goes on with any lying snow melting rapidly. Cools down again the following day.





Winds between 80km/h and off the scale levels of up to 170 or 175km/h crossing the country and on into the UK as well. If this really happened it would cause life threatening situations and possible structural damage on a scale none of us have seen in our lifetimes. Don't be alarmed the chances of this happening are practically zero, this is still a whole week away, well off in FI. We will most likely end up with a much reduced version of this or we could end up with just a standard Irish winter day. This will likely be gone in the morning.



No doubt this will change alot and downgrades are certain, especially for those insane windspeeds.

Andrew00

Frightening stuff

dsmythy

The fact that it even wants to hint at it shows there's energy out there.

A wintry day before where the snow melts rapidly and a storm rolls in. Reminds me of a certain 19th century stormy night on this island.

Kermit.de.frog

On track for early next week for potentially the best snow potential of the winter so far





Plenty of snow potential

KingdomRushed

That potential storm was certainly something of interest. But it's far too many days away to be anything other than academic at this stage. Worth keeping an eye on is all. Lot of energy out there next week. What it results in is anyone's guess. But I expect the northwesterlies will bring snow to donegal mayo Sligo Fermanagh Leitrim

Meteorite58

Sunday just on the border of +120hrs so will post here about it for the moment. ECM has really upped the wind speeds on the latest run. Showing a proper Storm with widespread gusting 120 to 130km/h all across the country.

Still mindful that it is 120+ hrs away approx but trending very strong at least, stronger than the GFS on the largest run.


Very wintry Mon into Tues, windy to very windy in coastal areas, windy across the country, hail and thunderstorms possible, bitter cold.

Very windy Wends but as expected the GFS has been moving the tracks of the systems away from the armagenden charts from earlier but I wouldn't rule in or out anything as the trend is very disturbed weather next week.

typhoony

A wintry outlook for most of next week, obviously coastal areas marginal but inland should see snow, heavy showers persisting through night time also which is the best hope for accumulations at lower levels. An impressive NWesterly on the way, should be fun to warch

Meteorite58

And the GFS has the storm back on Weds, as big as earlier runs.........

KingdomRushed

Meteorite58 wrote: »

And the GFS has the storm back on Weds, as big as earlier runs.........

Yeah saw that. Very consistent but too early to be anything other than a watch. Having said that it's a real omfg evolution. If it still showing this Friday!! Then it will be a real rollercoaster of model watching

KingdomRushed

A lot of support for the storm on the GFS 6z ensembles. Ensemble 1 has 190kph gusts into the west coast of Ireland. The less said about that the better.

If you go to Meteociel, you can now tabulate the ensemble data for any location, including windspeeds and max gusts, which is where I got the info.

So a significant upgrade in the ensemble suite. However, caution seriously advised given the forecast length.

gerrybhoy

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

KingdomRushed

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

I would say that in general, whether the large wind storm transpires or not, that next week will be very stormy and wintry. There will likely be snow showers on elevated ground country wide, and possibly rogue falls in certain areas to lower levels.

Billcarson

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

If the storm happens, the best chance for snow would be for the storm to be just to the south,if it goes to far north it would definitely be just rain . Best case scenario for a chance of snow would for it to be a shallower feature and be too our south.

Gonzo

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

like most westerlies snow would be rather thin on the ground if on the ground at all. No doubt places like Knock and high ground in Donegal and Mayo could do extremely well from this, as would many parts of Northern Ireland. Drogheda to Cork and eastwards probably not so much, unless there was an organised band of snow involved with temperatures low enough at night. As said above, the track of the lows would be crucial for temperature and snowfall. Move it too far north and it would be all rain.

gerrybhoy

Thanks for the replies folks,much appreciated

Gonzo

first off lets talk about the snow risk, once again I have to say the GFS always makes these charts look like major snow events, when in reality most of them are showers.

Monday 10th looks fairly wintry, particularly across the west and north. Wouldn't be much snow in the east from this, similar to most westerlies.



Tuesday 11th see's any snow quickly turning back to rain.


Tuesday night/Wednedsday morning sees widespread heavy rain across the country and milder.


Wednesday 12th see's the cold air back and widespread wintryness across the country. This is 8 days away so do not take this seriously at all. But if this came off there would be large dumpings of snow from Sligo to Louth, patchy coverings everywhere else.



Wintry showers afterwards, most of them in the north and west. These turn to rain as milder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday morning.



Looks fairly wintry overall but it wouldn't be like an easterly or notherly, there would be spells of rain and warm sectors mixed up in it with best chance of lying snow on high ground in the west and north, but everywhere would stand a chance of at least seeing some flakes fall on to wet ground.

Gonzo

now lets talk about those temperatures.

Monday 10th sees a rather cold day, cold enough for showers to turn wintry. Looks milder on the west coast where showers would probably stay as rain, but 2 to 4C across most of the country.



Tuesday 11th see's milder air moving in turning any wintryness to rain, however the mild struggles to get into Leinster and Ulster.



Wednesday 12th is colder again, especially across the east and north with milder air heading back in towards the west.



Windchill is similar to last nights charts, showing a bitterly feeling 3 day period with windchill as low as -9C, particularly over high ground, so it's going to feel very raw indeed.

Gonzo

The wind speeds are now more conservative than what was showing last night, but still fairly strong, these may still produce a red warning, but would not be nearly as bad as what was showing last night.

Sunday 9th February see's strong winds, particularly in coastal areas with speeds of up to 90km/h, more like 70km/h inland, especially early on, winds die away as the day goes on.



Monday 10th will be a windy day, but nothing serious, wind speeds generally between 35 and 60km/h.



The big day itself, Tuesday 11th of February. Most of the day is grand, not too windy, but the storm approaches from the south-west later in the evening, after dark.



During Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is when winds will be at their strongest, crossing the country with wind speeds between 90km/h and 140km/h. The north of the country doesn't look as bad as the southern two thirds of the country.



12th of February still looks incredibly windy especially in the Dublin area with the storm shifting across into the central belt of the UK, then southeastwards towards London and south east. Wind speeds dying off very quickly in the afternoon as the storm clears.



Again I expect this to change alot over the coming week. We have already seen a downgrade since last night and I expect more to follow.

Naggdefy

12th February is the 6th anniversary of Storm Darwin. I have a feeling that we might be in for a major storm. Even Ophelia didn't really amount to as much as was expected. There were only a few stations hitting red alert status compared to Darwin. We've had a lot of pretty standard winter storms since Darwin, due a bigger one.

Gonzo

just seen the latest forecast on RTE and they mention that nationwide wind warnings may come into play from the weekend.

Santy2015

Gonzo wrote: »

just seen the latest forecast on RTE and they mention that nationwide wind warnings may come into play from the weekend.

Yeah Siobhan gave a good forecast there. Eyes on the met and Windy for the next few days. I see the uk met office have already issued warnings for the weekend.. 4 days out

Naggdefy

Major storm gone on GFS 12Z

Can go and come just as quickly on runs a week out.

KingdomRushed

Naggdefy wrote: »

Major storm gone on GFS 12Z

Can go and come just as quickly on runs a week out.

Yes, but further iterations may yet appear. Very unstable period ahead

Naggdefy

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes, but further iterations may yet appear. Very unstable period ahead

Of course. Storm kinks in the flow pre 192hrs or post it likely. Just the timing that was on a few consecutive GFS runs for that massive storm tomorrow week is gone from that GFS run.

sryanbruen

We know what the GFS is like with these sorts of things but jeez, that is a proper chilly polar maritime northwesterly. Coldest I've seen in a while with thickness sub 518 dam and 850hPa temps going as low as -6 to -9C.

Definitely more threats for a wider risk of wintry outbreaks across the country with this compared to the late January northwesterly. I'd expect a tone down in the cold after this run.