FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

GFS 12Z has upped the wind speeds for over next weekend, more so than the ECM 0Z . Will see if the ECM 12Z follows suit.

Both showing a windy Monday 10th, ECM has the LP closer the next day than the GFS. Long way off of course.

Gonzo

The AO was extremely positive for much of January (it has been positive the entire winter). There is the possibility of record breaking AO positivity over the next two weeks, off the scale type stuff, keeping zonality absolutely locked in over the next few weeks. This is pretty much the final nail in the coffin for Winter 2019/2020. Westerlies will be the only game in town for probably the rest of February.

Oneiric 3

Most positive AO figure I can find for Februaries past is the 26th Feb 1990 with a figure of +5.911. Latest GFS 12z has pulled back a little from the more extreme values of earlier runs, but still forecasting a high at around +5.0 around the 10th.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z just out and not going for much wind next Saturday , showing it becoming very windy on Sunday into the early hours of Monday morning, windy throughout the day and then to Tues into Weds ......... Well, that is out at about 220 hrs and firmly in FI but the ECM has been showing a deepening storm with a large wind field track off the NW getting down to 935 hPa on the latest run and showing very severe weather potential. Been hinting at some inclement weather for next week now for a number of runs.

850 hPa Winds

Artane2002

The GFS 18z is showing some sort of a snowstorm on the 11th with a very tight gradient over England. It obviously won't happen but it's something to look at!

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

The GFS 18z is showing some sort of a snowstorm on the 11th with a very tight gradient over England. It obviously won't happen but it's something to look at!

theres the snow storm:






looks very cold that day too:


I would agree there is probably about a 0.0000001% chance of this happening, a cold Atlantic flow but no real cold air in place, snow maybe for the highest peaks but widespread disruptive snow across the south from a westerly is about as likely as 30C from a westerly in August! Even if there was cold air in place from an easterly or northerly, Ireland usually has a rough time with anything wintry turning to rain very quickly once the Atlantic is involved.

Danno

Feb 10th to 12th has been cold and snowy since it reached 384hrs a few days back. Amazing if it were to come to pass.

pauldry

Snow is the most impossible thing in Ireland to predict weather wise. Only yesterday Met Eireann predicted "falls of sleet and snow" for tonight but a slight shift north of the pattern has removed this.

However from this weekend onwards for quite a few days the weather looks "lively" with gales and wintry showers the order of the day

typhoony

GFS 06z brings back the vicious storm for next week, ECM showing a weaker system but further North. whatever happens the weather looks interesting from Sunday onwards.

Meteorite58

ECM and GFS quite similar now for strengthening winds Sat Evening into Sunday and becoming very windy across the country on Sunday. Also some high rainfall totals showing up at this stage ( lucky that we will be after a fairly dry week ), more so the Western side of the country, all finer details subject to change but certainly trending very unsettled over the weekend into next week.

Meteorite58

Both ECM and GFS showing very strong or stormy conditions around late Tues or Weds, different timing and the track has been changing from run to run but looks like there could be some sort of stormy conditions around then, GFS toaday showing a direct hit in the Southern half of the country and ECM showing something similar if not as strong. These charts will continue to change but looks like something might be brewing.

Current tracks, which will more than likely be different in the next run but just an idea where it is at, very deep , fast moving, GFS deepening on approach, ECM just starting to fill. The storm has a long track to cover and all depends on the jets position. Models showing very steep temperature gradients and both showing very cold air could be pulled in from the W or N/W producing wintry conditions , snow a possibility. A lot of weather happening from the Weekend .

JCX BXC

Looking very very severe on the GFS, almost a certainty to change however.

Gonzo

GFS starting to see more sense from the low pressure on the 11th of February, the uppers now clearly show a warm sector over Ireland which would mean mostly rain, however the days either side of this are colder and possibly wintry. The main thing to notice about this period is probably the wind, looks very windy indeed.









looks fairly chilly overall from the 10th to the 14th of February, but this is zonal cold, so there is the possibility these days may downgrade the chill as times get closer. Certainly looks very unsettled in this period with plenty of wind and rain and maybe some wintryness.

squarecircles

12Z intriguing but unlikely.

Meteorite58

ECM 12C showing strong W'ly winds across the country on Sunday ,windy on Monday Tuesday ,wintry and bitter cold with temperatures probably in the 4 to 6C range or thereabouts, considerable windchill likely.

ECM 12Z showing that storm take a more Nly route on Weds away from Ireland on the latest run, showing Ireland avoiding the strongest winds. Has another system hot on it's heels coming close to Ireland around Thursday .

Probably a temperature rise with heavy rain on Weds and could get very cold again and wintry on Thursday.

Kermit.de.frog

Plenty of snow showers would be rattling through here



*like*

Artane2002

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 06z brings back the vicious storm for next week, ECM showing a weaker system but further North. whatever happens the weather looks interesting from Sunday onwards.

That run gave me a good laugh, I don't think I've ever laughed at a model run before! It was showing widespread snow and severe winds, with off-the-scale 150+ km/h gusts touching the south coast and later on the east coast!!

Logan Roy

Artane2002 wrote: »

That run gave me a good laugh, I don't think I've ever laughed at a model run before! It was showing widespread snow and severe winds, with off-the-scale 150+ km/h gusts touching the south coast and later on the east coast!!

We said similar about Ophelia and Emma

esposito

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Plenty of snow showers would be rattling through here



*like*

Hopefully on a more widespread scale and not just limited to the north and west.

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z is violent
Can it be that bad though or will the downgrades happen...

Rougies

esposito wrote: »

Hopefully on a more widespread scale and not just limited to the north and west.

They would be fast moving so they would make it further inland before dissipating alright, with the downside being they pass over areas quicker giving less time for accumulations. We would probably see a few flakes and a dusting here and there on the eastern side of the country with the north and west getting some half decent accumulations. Maybe something more interesting with any instability features passing through. I'd bank it at this stage as a snow starved Dubliner!

JCX BXC

Coastal areas of the west would likely be held a few degrees warmer in this scenario so it would likely be rain and hail for them.

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 18z is violent
Can it be that bad though or will the downgrades happen...

That would be really destructive, a different level of storm.

There is a trend for something very severe around next Tuesday

Rougies

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 18z is violent
Can it be that bad though or will the downgrades happen...

The GFS has been moving the storm north the past three runs so it's likely it will continue to do so and move towards the ECM which has it quite far north as per Meteorite's post a the top of the page.

ninebeanrows

No comment

JanuarySnowstor

Indeed it may move more North in subsequent runs. In the meantime though Monday is moving more into the reliable for cold and snow!!

Andrew00

Start preparing now.

Artane2002

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

No comment

Gusts of over 150km/h in Dublin as well as other places! That would be destructive indeed. The GFS obviously as we all know has a tendency to overdo lows so it's hard to take seriously.

Meteorite58

GEM very similar to the track and intensity of the GFS.

Would have to suspect that it will drift North and they usually ease off on the wind speeds a bit closer to the event. ECM further N showing gusts over water of around 170km/h.

Intriguing though. If there is going to be a big weather event this winter, next week has all the hallmarks of one I think.

Gonzo

tonight's GFS if it happened would easily make it to a red level warning for most of Ireland, England and Wales. It's an insane chart and I can't imagine it being anywhere that windy, however a very windy day is certainly possible if it was a direct hit, but I just can't imagine those sort of windspeeds. Very interesting weather watching for the first time this winter, expect alot of updates here over the next few days, we will probably end up with something far more sensible and ordinary.

Meteorite58

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

pad199207

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

If those charts are the exact same by say Saturday, that would be a serious event with a threat to life.

There could hardly be upgrades with that

Donegal Storm

Nice, probably the first run all season that's worthy of being posted in this thread!




I remember a very similar looking storm on the models maybe 8 or 9 years ago, was still there until around 120h but ended up a much weaker system and hit northern France


Edit: Quite impressed with my memory there I have to say :pac:

Gonzo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If the GFS struck like it is showing I reckon it would be, without sounding too dramatic, a once in a lifetime storm. But low chance at this stage....... on to the next run!

it would be something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

With more than a week to go it will more than likely not be as powerful as what is represented tonight and will either side swipe us to the north/south or miss us entirely.

Meteorite58

Gonzo wrote: »

it would be something like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

With more than a week to go it will more than likely not be as powerful as what is represented tonight and will either side swipe us to the north/south or miss us entirely.

Bit off topic, I was working in England around then, had come back to Ireland when it struck and arrived back in the UK the day after or so. Never saw anything like it, the town I was in looked like a bomb went off, and it very much inland in Buckinghamshire. Knocked millions of trees.

But I dare say if those charts verified it would be worse, huge structural damage!

This is the FI thread and must be realistic though, it is too far away to know for sure, could see it drifted and weakened on the 06Z.

Gonzo

next week has the potential to see the most significant weather event since the Beast From The East, except this will be a very different beast, not so much if anything in the way of a proper snow event but could be quite stormy and very wet coupled with a frigid windchill and maybe a wintry mix.

Tonight's pub run is sensational stuff that is so over the top, the likelyhood of this happening is very slim indeed. We will probably see a much reduced version of this in reality or we may see nothing at all. But lets look at tonight's run and see what they are showing.

Windchill temperatures could be more like something you'd expect from an easterly, this is down to a cold zonal flow and very strong winds. Tonights GFS is showing a windchill between -5C and -9C:



The 10th of February (the day before the storm) looks quite wintry, but the GFS tends to completely overcook these situations by a mile.



Not much snow for us away from high ground on the 11th, but Northern Ireland and especially Scotland could see quite a bit of snow next week:



The 11th starts off chilly, but temperatures quickly rise as the day goes on with any lying snow melting rapidly. Cools down again the following day.





Winds between 80km/h and off the scale levels of up to 170 or 175km/h crossing the country and on into the UK as well. If this really happened it would cause life threatening situations and possible structural damage on a scale none of us have seen in our lifetimes. Don't be alarmed the chances of this happening are practically zero, this is still a whole week away, well off in FI. We will most likely end up with a much reduced version of this or we could end up with just a standard Irish winter day. This will likely be gone in the morning.



No doubt this will change alot and downgrades are certain, especially for those insane windspeeds.

Andrew00

Frightening stuff

dsmythy

The fact that it even wants to hint at it shows there's energy out there.

A wintry day before where the snow melts rapidly and a storm rolls in. Reminds me of a certain 19th century stormy night on this island.

Kermit.de.frog

On track for early next week for potentially the best snow potential of the winter so far





Plenty of snow potential

KingdomRushed

That potential storm was certainly something of interest. But it's far too many days away to be anything other than academic at this stage. Worth keeping an eye on is all. Lot of energy out there next week. What it results in is anyone's guess. But I expect the northwesterlies will bring snow to donegal mayo Sligo Fermanagh Leitrim

Meteorite58

Sunday just on the border of +120hrs so will post here about it for the moment. ECM has really upped the wind speeds on the latest run. Showing a proper Storm with widespread gusting 120 to 130km/h all across the country.

Still mindful that it is 120+ hrs away approx but trending very strong at least, stronger than the GFS on the largest run.


Very wintry Mon into Tues, windy to very windy in coastal areas, windy across the country, hail and thunderstorms possible, bitter cold.

Very windy Wends but as expected the GFS has been moving the tracks of the systems away from the armagenden charts from earlier but I wouldn't rule in or out anything as the trend is very disturbed weather next week.

typhoony

A wintry outlook for most of next week, obviously coastal areas marginal but inland should see snow, heavy showers persisting through night time also which is the best hope for accumulations at lower levels. An impressive NWesterly on the way, should be fun to warch

Meteorite58

And the GFS has the storm back on Weds, as big as earlier runs.........

KingdomRushed

Meteorite58 wrote: »

And the GFS has the storm back on Weds, as big as earlier runs.........

Yeah saw that. Very consistent but too early to be anything other than a watch. Having said that it's a real omfg evolution. If it still showing this Friday!! Then it will be a real rollercoaster of model watching

KingdomRushed

A lot of support for the storm on the GFS 6z ensembles. Ensemble 1 has 190kph gusts into the west coast of Ireland. The less said about that the better.

If you go to Meteociel, you can now tabulate the ensemble data for any location, including windspeeds and max gusts, which is where I got the info.

So a significant upgrade in the ensemble suite. However, caution seriously advised given the forecast length.

gerrybhoy

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

KingdomRushed

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

I would say that in general, whether the large wind storm transpires or not, that next week will be very stormy and wintry. There will likely be snow showers on elevated ground country wide, and possibly rogue falls in certain areas to lower levels.

Billcarson

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

If the storm happens, the best chance for snow would be for the storm to be just to the south,if it goes to far north it would definitely be just rain . Best case scenario for a chance of snow would for it to be a shallower feature and be too our south.

Gonzo

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Is this wind storm bringing anything else,rain sleet,snow?

like most westerlies snow would be rather thin on the ground if on the ground at all. No doubt places like Knock and high ground in Donegal and Mayo could do extremely well from this, as would many parts of Northern Ireland. Drogheda to Cork and eastwards probably not so much, unless there was an organised band of snow involved with temperatures low enough at night. As said above, the track of the lows would be crucial for temperature and snowfall. Move it too far north and it would be all rain.

gerrybhoy

Thanks for the replies folks,much appreciated