Storm Atiyah Sunday - Monday, 8th - 9th Dec 2019

Doctors room ghost

Mrcaramelchoc wrote: »

Any sign of Theresa.

Not yet anyway.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What kind of crazy whales have you been hanging out with Mobil?

Mobil Dick :pac:

Some strong gusts here in south Dublin.

Kermit.de.frog

monty_python wrote: »

Report on Facebook claimed 170km gusts for beara peninsula. How likely is this in your opinion??

Yeah that's not gonna to happen. :pac:

125 - 135 km/h is the very max gusts out of this one at some stage tomorrow evening in the southwest and that's what all the model data points to.

Unless you are living on a mountain top

Larbre34

We are looking at a Red status for the Connacht coastal counties, maybe more. In fact I think they only haven't been issued yet because of the sensitivities around ignorant accusations of crying wolf from people who should frankly be ignored.

Storm 10

George is very quite on this one following the egg on face fiasco with Lorenzo

Kermit.de.frog

Larbre34 wrote: »

We are looking at a Red status for the Connacht coastal counties, maybe more. In fact I think they only haven't been issued yet because of the sensitivities around ignorant accusations of crying wolf from people who should frankly be ignored.

JS is closer the mark here. There is little to suggest a red warranted for any county or coastal area.



Even among the more "extreme" models again short of a red really.



A solid orange, some severe gusts but nothing too extreme.

monty_python

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yeah that's not gonna to happen. :pac:

125 - 135 km/h is the very max gusts out of this one at some stage tomorrow evening in the southwest and that's what all the model data points to.

Unless you are living on a mountain top

Not on a mountain top but on the coast 15km west from castletownbere

Carol25

Graces7 wrote: »

Agree totally. We were always taught to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. No shame in doing that. Wise. These events can change for the worse in a matter of minutes. And this being so near Christmas folk will be planning outings with family, so far wiser to close when there is serious risk.

The inquest on that caravan death made harrowing listening. Had there been a red warning?

There has been no overhype. Just sensible advice which you can take or not. Were there to be no such advice and disaster happen there would be an outcry.

Quieter here just now.

Glad it’s a bit quieter there at the moment! It’s getting windy here. It wasn’t a red during Ali as far as I remember, even though some of the gusts recorded at Mace Head were in the red range as far as I remember.

enfant terrible

Wife hoping to travel home from Portlaoise to Limerick tomorrow around 2/3pm.

Will the wind be bad around that time?

spookwoman

enfant terrible wrote: »

Wife hoping to travel home from Portlaoise to Limerick tomorrow around 2/3pm.

Will the wind be bad around that time?

The warnings kick in at 13.00

Gaoth Laidir

This system is actually made up of two low pressure centres, one which is currently south-soutwest of Iceland and will be the first wave of strongest winds in the southwest tomorrow afternoon, and a second, just forming now southeast of Iceland.

The first will start to fill in the next few hours as it pivots southeastwards towards Ireland overnight. The second, by that stage, will also be filling as it pivots southwards. Exact timing will be important for exactly how strong the winds will be here, as upper levels stabilise with the approaching ridge from the west. That, in turn, will be controlled by a very strong southwesterly jet streak off the New Foundland coast. Still some scope for slight variations in the next couple of runs.

Icelandic Harmonie at 21Z today.



This is the GFS Gramet for Mace Head for the next 36 hours (in hourly steps). Highest hourly mean winds around 80 km/h, but it is the GFS...

Kermit.de.frog

monty_python wrote: »

Not on a mountain top but on the coast 15km west from castletownbere

It'd be in the range 125 - 135 km/h max gusts - pretty rough but not extraordinary.

Now the swell could be an issue though with wave heights possibly up to 12 or 13 meters which brings a risk of some coastal flooding.

Jimbob1977

Wind ramping up in Limerick.

Nothing major, but you can hear it through the vents

Hooter23

Just the usual bit of wind then for tomoro:rolleyes: Ever since we started naming these storms 90% of them have been blown way out of proportion to what we actually get...the media is to blame...and I think its all on purpose to feed the whole climate change s***e

Snow Garden

Carol25 wrote: »

Glad it’s a bit quieter there at the moment! It’s getting windy here. It wasn’t a red during Ali as far as I remember, even though some of the gusts recorded at Mace Head were in the red range as far as I remember.

Ali was savage in Galway for those 2 hours. I had never seen so many trees knocked. The big factor was that they were in full leaf.

ellieh1

Definitely picking up here in Limerick, vents are starting to rattle!

mobil 222

Deleted User wrote: »

Mobil Dick :pac:

Some strong gusts here in south Dublin.

Ok thats it ,,no more comment until after Atiyah the Hun or whale or whatever has come and gone

Kermit.de.frog

Hooter23 wrote: »

Just the usual bit of wind then for tomoro:rolleyes: Ever since we started naming these storms 90% of them have been blown way out of proportion to what we actually get...the media is to blame...and I think its all on purpose to feed the whole climate change s***e

Still problematic and damaging winds with this though. Electricity outages, trees down and some disruption first thing Monday morning.

Just not a class 3 kill storm :pac:

Graces7

Larbre34 wrote: »

We are looking at a Red status for the Connacht coastal counties, maybe more. In fact I think they only haven't been issued yet because of the sensitivities around ignorant accusations of crying wolf from people who should frankly be ignored.

Just what I was about to post; thank you.

Getting wilder here now. A different tone in the roaring; is it high tide?

West Mayo offshore island

Kermit.de.frog

The west coast gets great coverage on the weather forum to be fair for every event and those that have nothing to do with Dublin.

Saying it's unlikely to be an extraordinary event is not the same as saying there won't be disruption with this or it's not something we need to be watching.

pad199207

Convective showers now about to pack into the WEST could give some very strong winds with them as they move into WESTERN areas.

Those in the WEST going to get a fair whack out of this.

screamer

pad199207 wrote: »

Convective showers now about to pack into the WEST could give some very strong winds with them as they move into WESTERN areas.

Those in the WEST going to get a fair whack out of this.

Is that you Teresa our WEST??

Kermit.de.frog

Noticably mild this evening. Temperatures well up at the moment but falling off reasonably quickly after midnight as the last vestige of cloud with the cold front clears the east coast

cowana

Windows bending and house shaking in the wicklow mountains. Glencree valley 250m asl

Meteorite58

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Noticably mild this evening. Temperatures well up at the moment but falling off reasonably quickly after midnight as the last vestige of cloud with the cold front clears the east coast

Thanks for the kind words earlier Kermit, I only kicked the ball off, open to everyone to contribute , much happier posting amongst the collective.

Noticeably milder all right this evening behind the warm front. Was at Thomand Park this evening and had some very heavy rain as the wind picked up all evening. Luckily seated well back in the stand but got drenched walking back into the city ( oh and Munster won! :pac: ) . Rough drive back to Kerry with very heavy rain and windy along the Shannon. Sky clearer now.

10.4C

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z stilll very strong in the SW and W . Still showing good chance of gusting up to 130 km/h in Kerry and possibly higher towards 140 kmh nearer to coasts and high ground . Up along the W still showing widespread gusting 100 to 130 km/h, Highest nearer the coasts and high ground.

Meteorite58

A closer look.

NIMAN

Winds picking up now in NW.
Some heavy showers too.

Snow Garden

Dingle peninsula will take a hammering going by those charts.

Meteorite58

Arpege 18Z showing the Second strong core of winds more Northerly on this run. Still has the first round of strongest winds in the SW.


ICON down on wind speeds on this one , keeping the strongest winds off the SW and doesn't develop the second round of winds that much.

American models look a bit too much lower than the European.

Final bit of adjusting by the models. I am intrigued to see the ECM 18Z coming out later.