What will happen if Scotland defies Johnson?

realitykeeper

X111111111111 wrote: »

Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. The EU would be wise to stay the hell out of matters that don't involve them in any way.

Only as long as Scotland want that.

Fann Linn

I'd like to know the view of the Irish govt on a Scottish referendum considering they're running a mile from the thoughts of a Border Poll.

realitykeeper

jackboy wrote: »

No chance. Spain cannot accept that.

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

jackboy

realitykeeper wrote: »

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

osarusan

realitykeeper wrote: »

Of course they can. The situation is completely different. Spain is not trying to leave the EU.

Spain won't want a precedent of newly-formed states getting entry to the EU that will further stoke Catalonian independence movements.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

realitykeeper wrote: »

Yes but a far high percentage want to remain in the EU. Polls reflect the pollsters wishes more than those polled. Instead of asking if they wanted to remain in the UK, what if they had asked the more relevant question, i.e. to choose between the UK and EU. The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

Remaining in the EU as an independent Scotland, even when the UK was still in, was by no means a certainty. Scotland re-joining the EU, after the UK has left, will not be easy and will take considerable time, if it happens at all.

4068ac1elhodqr

A few re-runs of Braveheart on the telly box, and 'New Alba' (New Scotia sounds better, but is taken) will be founded in no time.
Instead of a fancy bridge to Antrim, they could align with (non-EU) Norway, until a new Celtic & Viking Union is formed.

is_that_so

jackboy wrote: »

No. They cannot make such a decision without a vote by all the member states.

The'd actually have to join the back of the queue.

is_that_so

jackboy wrote: »

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

Some people in Catalonia favour leaving Spain. They are far from a majority, but they too would be at the back of the queue, something that is never alluded to in their campaigns.

biko

I think Scotland should have a referendum on leaving UK.
Then a referendum on joining EU.
Leaving UK should not mean someone simultaneously votes for joining EU.

Scotland's biggest trading partner is UK.
The Scottish Government's annual trade statistics ('Export Statistics Scotland') show that in 2016 Scotland exported more than £45 billion in goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland – while exports to the EU total £12.7 billion.

1641

realitykeeper wrote: »

I think winning or losing is not really relevant. The main purpose is to find out what the people want given the fact that England want to leave the EU. If the Scots want to remain with a UK that is leaving the EU, so be it but they should be consulted again.

No. From a Scottish nationalist perspective winning a referendum is very relevant. The opinion polls have improved for this but still do not suggest a win - at the very best 50/50. If they get one now and lose, it will be a very long time until there is another one - if ever.

But if Brexit has a negative impact and the SNP can whip up a narrative of Tory bootboys V Scotland, then the chances could well shift. The more the Tories just say NO to the referendum demand from the SNP the more it suits Sturgeon.

realitykeeper

jackboy wrote: »

Catalonia wants to leave Spain. If Spain vote for Scotland to join the EU they are supporting the breakup of European nations. They won’t do that. Some other European countries may have similar reservations.

England will soon be outside the EU. Spain cannot be concerning itself with every banana republic from Fiji to England.

realitykeeper

Hope Delightful Marrow wrote: »

Remaining in the EU as an independent Scotland, even when the UK was still in, was by no means a certainty. Scotland re-joining the EU, after the UK has left, will not be easy and will take considerable time, if it happens at all.

The EU will want the process to be seamless so that is what it will be.

realitykeeper

1641 wrote: »

No. From a Scottish nationalist perspective winning a referendum is very relevant. The opinion polls have improved for this but still do not suggest a win - at the very best 50/50.

Those opinion polls preceded the UK election when it not not clear how things would pan out. Now it is obvious that Britain will leave the EU soon. That was not definite before now.

1641

realitykeeper wrote: »

Those opinion polls preceded the UK election when it not not clear how things would pan out. Now it is obvious that Britain will leave the EU soon. That was not definite before now.

The best they got was 51% V 49% for independence and that was with factoring in Brexit. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-would-vote-for-independence-if-brexit-goes-ahead-new-poll-suggests-1-5058877

Far too close to call and that is before all the fear factor of the campaign kicks in, eg, losing Sterling, a border with by far their largest trading partner, the budget and public services (Scotland is subsidised by central funds), etc. It could go either way but, in a quick referendum, I would bet on a "No". (Might London be tempted?).

Whenever the referendum comes it is a must win for the SNP. It will suit them very well for now to play the Tories as denying Scotland a vote and thereby whip up nationalism. They will then have time to get more young voters on the register and hope for a negative Brexit impact.

FrancieBrady

osarusan wrote: »

Spain won't want a precedent of newly-formed states getting entry to the EU that will further stoke Catalonian independence movements.

Spain, (when Rahoy was PM) has already said they would have no legal objection to Scotland joining the EU.

Scotland will leave the UK legally and constitutionally (in as much as they have a constitution) if they have a referendum, Catalonia is different, as it is unconstitutional for them to leave Spain.

There is no comparison therefore and no objection coming from Spain.

realitykeeper

1641 wrote: »

The best they got was 51% V 49% for independence and that was with factoring in Brexit. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scotland-would-vote-for-independence-if-brexit-goes-ahead-new-poll-suggests-1-5058877

Far too close to call and that is before all the fear factor of the campaign kicks in, eg, losing Sterling, a border with by far their largest trading partner, the budget and public services (Scotland is subsidised by central funds), etc. It could go either way but, in a quick referendum, I would bet on a "No". (Might London be tempted?).

Whenever the referendum comes it is a must win for the SNP. It will suit them very well for now to play the Tories as denying Scotland a vote and thereby whip up nationalism. They will then have time to get more young voters on the register and hope for a negative Brexit impact.

I disagree with your assertion that 51% is the best they can expect. Granted a majority would opt to remain with the UK if Brexit was not happening but up until a couple of days ago, the possibility existed of another referendum on Brexit. That possibility is now gone so the option of staying in the UK no longer carries the possibility of staying in the EU as was the case when the poll you refer to was carried out. Given the massive endorsement given to the SNP, I think some of those who wanted to stay in both the UK and the EU will choose the EU over the UK. This will result in a clear majority for Scottish independence.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

Scotland could become the main route for trade between Ireland and the EU

Have you ever looked at a map?

1641

[/QUOTE]I disagree with your assertion that 51% is the best they can expect.

Except I made no such assertion. I indicated that in the most recent opinion poll 51% indicated they would vote for independence in the event of a UK Brexit. That is too close to call. In my opinion in would not pass at the moment - but it may do down the road if events run in the SNPs favour. I understand that you have a different opinion - fair enough.

Given the massive endorsement given to the SNP, I think some of those who wanted to stay in both the UK and the EU will choose the EU over the UK. This will result in a clear majority for Scottish independence.

The SNP won a massive seat share with 45% of the vote. The Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems combined (all pro-union) won 53%. Not all of these votes (on either side) will fall the same way in a referendum. But it still indicates a race too close to call. Whenever the referendum comes the SNP must win it - if they lose again that is it for at least a generation - and maybe, even, the beginning of the end for the SNP (especially if Labour can succeed in getting decent leadership in place and re-building their working class vote).

Berserker

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Every poll conducted still suggests its 55:45 to remain. Everything from the Fake News Irish Media is exactly Fake News.

The Irish media seem to want to forget that fact.

realitykeeper wrote: »

The election result would indicate very strong support for ongoing membership of the EU and an immediate referendum would now be a good idea I suspect.

The election result would indicate that 55% of voters would vote to remain in the UK. You also need to consider the fact that some of the people who voted SNP would not be in favour of leaving the UK. Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged this last week.

If Scotland waits until after Brexit is done, they will need to re-apply for membership. If Scotland wanted to opt for independence, IndyRef1 was the time to do it. They didn't, which was a win for the Union and for the RoI.

1641 wrote: »

But it still indicates a race too close to call. Whenever the referendum comes the SNP must win it - if they lose again that is it for at least a generation - and maybe, even, the beginning of the end for the SNP (especially if Labour can succeed in getting decent leadership in place and re-building their working class vote).

That was supposed to be the case for the last one.

topper75

biko wrote: »

Scotland had their chance to leave UK 2014, they didn't take it.

Boggles wrote: »

Yip. 1 or 2 things have changed since though.

In fairness, I don't think referenda can be run on that basis in practical terms.

I think all of us were caught out at the indyref, because the remain in UK majority were not loud. They kept below the parapet and simply voted. That is all they had to do. Scotland is staying in the union, democratically and not by force, and I see little point in wishing otherwise over here.

Mysterypunter

Scotland never defy England, they just stick their hole up in the air for them, like always.

realitykeeper

Berserker wrote: »

The election result would indicate that 55% of voters would vote to remain in the UK. You also need to consider the fact that some of the people who voted SNP would not be in favour of leaving the UK.

Didn`t they win 48 out of 59 seats? That is over 80% of the seats and that was when the possibility of Brexit being called off in a second referendum was still a possibility.

slegs

realitykeeper wrote: »

Didn`t they win 48 out of 59 seats? That is over 80% of the seats and that was when the possibility of Brexit being called off in a second referendum was still a possibility.

A first past the post multi party election only requires you to be the biggest party of the multiple parties to achieve a result like that. The SNP achieved a similar result in the 2015 election after the Indyref and before the Brexit referendum
.
Very different from winning a yes/no question in another Indy referendum. Even though a lot has changed since the last one actually not much has changed in option polls regarding independence.

Lots of noise will be made regarding wanting a referendum but SNP don’t actually want it now as they would lose. The potential swing voters won’t want more upheaval on top of Brexit right now. Might be different in 5-10 years depending on how Brexit plays out for Scotland but for now the SNP would be crazy to push for a quick referendum.

Berserker

realitykeeper wrote: »

Didn`t they win 48 out of 59 seats? That is over 80% of the seats and that was when the possibility of Brexit being called off in a second referendum was still a possibility.

Seats have nothing to do with an independence referendum. The percentage of voters for and against is what matters and the remain side still has a majority.

Mysterypunter wrote: »

Scotland never defy England, they just stick their hole up in the air for them, like always.

Defy? Scotland asked for a once in a generation referendum on the matter in 2014 and they had one. They can't keep asking for one every time the wind changes because some people are unhappy with the result of the last one. Next referendum is due in 2044, as far as any real democrat is concerned.

ILoveYourVibes

What will happen if Scotland defies Johnson?

Impossible to say ..the whole of the uk is going into no man's land.

realitykeeper

Berserker wrote: »

Seats have nothing to do with an independence referendum. The percentage of voters for and against is what matters and the remain side still has a majority.

For the umteenth time, many of the remainers you refer to want to remain in the EU also. If even a small percentage of those who want to remain in the UK want to remain in the EU even more, that would extend the UK leavers majority from 51% to perhaps over 60%.

By the way, I see Trump has effectively neutered the WTO. Any country planning on trading via WTO rules will find it difficult without a functioning WTO to act as arbiter in case of trade disputes.

Seth Brundle

Berserker wrote: »

Defy? Scotland asked for a once in a generation referendum on the matter in 2014 and they had one. They can't keep asking for one every time the wind changes because some people are unhappy with the result of the last one. Next referendum is due in 2044, as far as any real democrat is concerned.

In fairness, calling for a independence referendum because of the change in the political, legislative, quality and trading landscape that will arise from exiting the EU is not the same as calling a referendum every time the wind changes!