Share Picks 2020

RIGOLO

shorting the market. .. shorting the Euro Stoxx, Euro Banks, FTSE, S&P 500 , DAX and a bit of Brent.

See it as a hedge against a win by the guy who forgets his opponents name and extended impact of COVID and second lockdown. Double chance we revisit the drops of March, given more countries are extending the lockdown, may not be as extreme but anecdotal evidence I hear small buisnesses cannot survive a second lockdown, thats enough for me.
Plus we obviously have no idea how this virus behaves during the cold period, I think theres somethign they arent telling us about it. Things will get worse. So may as well make some coin on the way down and pick up the upswing in 3-6 months.

The NCYT rollercoaster continues, we are now valued LESS than contracts awarded , again . I will wait for the next RNS .

The Wall St machine was broke last night, first RGR (I do own) and then PINTEREST(I dont own) beat earnings and the SP went up. Been a long time Ive seen that happen.. whats going on , are actual balance sheets the new 'cloud'.

Nemeses2050

RIGOLO wrote: »

shorting the market. .. shorting the Euro Stoxx, Euro Banks, FTSE, S&P 500 , DAX and a bit of Brent.

See it as a hedge against a win by the guy who forgets his opponents name and extended impact of COVID and second lockdown. Double chance we revisit the drops of March, given more countries are extending the lockdown, may not be as extreme but anecdotal evidence I hear small buisnesses cannot survive a second lockdown, thats enough for me.
Plus we obviously have no idea how this virus behaves during the cold period, I think theres somethign they arent telling us about it. Things will get worse. So may as well make some coin on the way down and pick up the upswing in 3-6 months.

The NCYT rollercoaster continues, we are now valued LESS than contracts awarded , again . I will wait for the next RNS .

The Wall St machine was broke last night, first RGR (I do own) and then PINTEREST(I dont own) beat earnings and the SP went up. Been a long time Ive seen that happen.. whats going on , are actual balance sheets the new 'cloud'.

I had a cheeky bid of 8.30 on NYCT in hope last night..it was very close but no cigar it's kinda stabilised since morning though...

@shedite - good call on PINS, unfortunately wasn't on board

looks like it'll be a mixed day...

RIGOLO

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I had a cheeky bid of 8.30 on NYCT in hope last night..it was very close but no cigar it's kinda stabilised since morning though...

@shedite - good call on PINS, unfortunately wasn't on board

looks like it'll be a mixed day...

20% up in Paris and halted.
Hard luck on the bid, sometimes its best to just execute the trade you believe in rather than hang on for a few more pence drop

If you want to hedge your oil plays, pickup some 3BRS, 3xDaily Brent short ,
At least thats what Im doing, it might be a long time before Oil returns.

DutchYurt

Fastly down another 5% - 15 days and counting of straight red.

bfa1509

What kind of backwards land do we live in? Everytime a stock gets good news it plummets. Ebay beats 3rd quarter revenue estimates and forecasts strong holiday sales - drops 10%. 4D pharma dropped 30% when it showed promising results for it's IBS drug. It's ridiculous!

I am now terrified that my biggest holding Amazon (and smaller holding Apple) will post good results later today... There is just no winning with this market, cryptocurrency looks like a safe haven at this stage.

RIGOLO

Right so, for now Christine Lagarde has inflicted collateral damage on my 'epic' (granted , epic only in my own mind I accept) short play on the broader markets with her pressser today indicating xmas ECB stimulus presents for everyone, the surprise positive US GDP numbers didnt help either, although I trust my fellow investors in the trading trenches benefited from them .

Buts its not over, its only just began, I dont intend to be 'chick'ed by this French dame even if she has a few trillion in her YSL handbag.
Its on , its on like donkey kong..
These central bankers drinking the koolaid with your cant fight the fed or the ecb .. well news for you guys and gal .. the ECB cant fight the COVID-19 .
rant over .. back to normal service .

Jim2007

bfa1509 wrote: »

What kind of backwards land do we live in? Everytime a stock gets good news it plummets. Ebay beats 3rd quarter revenue estimates and forecasts strong holiday sales - drops 10%. 4D pharma dropped 30% when it showed promising results for it's IBS drug. It's ridiculous!

I am now terrified that my biggest holding Amazon (and smaller holding Apple) will post good results later today... There is just no winning with this market, cryptocurrency looks like a safe haven at this stage.

So what's the difference between betting on people's perception of the market to betting on their perception of a currency?

PHG

bfa1509 wrote: »

What kind of backwards land do we live in? Everytime a stock gets good news it plummets. Ebay beats 3rd quarter revenue estimates and forecasts strong holiday sales - drops 10%. 4D pharma dropped 30% when it showed promising results for it's IBS drug. It's ridiculous!

I am now terrified that my biggest holding Amazon (and smaller holding Apple) will post good results later today... There is just no winning with this market, cryptocurrency looks like a safe haven at this stage.

In that case there was likely a run up in price before results. A lot of people profit take on good results so the price drops, though usually above/around support.

In the morning of results MM's usually drop the price for an hour or two to scare people to exit as they may have orders to fill.

Volume will tell you a lot

Those 4D pharma results were good but near as good as expected, hence the drop and IBS is only a small part of its overall business.

When reading the results try to be as biased as possible and not look for for you wnat to see. Have made that mistake before and only the SL saved me!

bfa1509

bfa1509 wrote: »

.............

I am now terrified that my biggest holding Amazon (and smaller holding Apple) will post good results later today... There is just no winning with this market, cryptocurrency looks like a safe haven at this stage.

Amazon will post great results, we all know that........... the market knows that....... it's not a secret.

Shedite27

bfa1509 wrote: »

What kind of backwards land do we live in? Everytime a stock gets good news it plummets. Ebay beats 3rd quarter revenue estimates and forecasts strong holiday sales - drops 10%. 4D pharma dropped 30% when it showed promising results for it's IBS drug. It's ridiculous!

I am now terrified that my biggest holding Amazon (and smaller holding Apple) will post good results later today... There is just no winning with this market, cryptocurrency looks like a safe haven at this stage.

You have to look at what the price has done in the past 3 months. If the profit is up 30% in the quarter, but the share price has gone up 40% in the quarter, you can't expect another big jump.

bfa1509

Shedite27 wrote: »

You have to look at what the price has done in the past 3 months. If the profit is up 30% in the quarter, but the share price has gone up 40% in the quarter, you can't expect another big jump.

My strategy for 2021 will be "buy the news, sell the rumor"

RIGOLO

ATVI Activision dropping today .
Seems odd given that they are expected to beat earnings with all the gamers and COD and we are all entering a winter lockdown which benefits ATVI.

Best to give up trying to rationalise how Wall ST is treating earnings beats and just accept we are but pawns .
After hours sure will be interesting .

Mickiemcfist

Looks to be a good time to get in on Mastercard if you're not already, good fundamentals, cashless society is the future and it's trading at a 20% discount to the end of August due to missed earnings blamed on the travel sector. I'm considering it over the next few days, anyone any thoughts?

Shedite27

The guidance that companies are giving is far more important than "beating" the expectations that experts give. The expectations are so watered down at this stage, you really need to look beyond it to understand stock movements post-earnings.

RIGOLO

Shedite27 wrote: »

The guidance that companies are giving is far more important than "beating" the expectations that experts give. The expectations are so watered down at this stage, you really need to look beyond it to understand stock movements post-earnings.

Yes agreed guidance is also a top driver of the SP.

But as private investors we are dependant on many factors connected to guidance. post-covid some companies are scared to give guidance as the future landscape is uncertain, some ceo's are not very good at delivering guidance messages in their earnings call, also they are walking a tightrope of regulations as to what they can say about the future .

A character like Elon is the king of guidance (bar the odd our sp is over valued tweet) but he has talked up TSLA to where it sits today , a large part due to guidance .
Even with an earnings beat and good guidance Wall St has still walked many stock prices down in hte last few months.

Its all part of what makes investing part science and part mystery novel, you have to look at technicals but also read the clues.

Timing belt

bfa1509 wrote: »

My strategy for 2021 will be "buy the news, sell the rumor"

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

Timing belt

Timing belt wrote: »

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

*cough* $TSLA

bfa1509

Timing belt wrote: »

Is it just me or does this feel like the dot.com bubble all over again where investors are no longer looking at the fundamentals of the company for its valuation.

My portfolio is up 3.2% today so far (a daily record for me) off the back of expectation and not much else. A smart move would be to sell everything now before tomorrow's blood-bath of "good news" and pre-election adjustments.

But I'm not smart...

littlevillage

RIGOLO wrote: »

20% up in Paris and halted.
Hard luck on the bid, sometimes its best to just execute the trade you believe in rather than hang on for a few more pence drop

If you want to hedge your oil plays, pickup some 3BRS, 3xDaily Brent short ,
At least thats what Im doing, it might be a long time before Oil returns.

I sold on Tuesday at £10.60....the trousers dropped out of it yesterday, went back to £8.20. I didn't bite. Thought more to fall.

Today, its back to £10.45 at close. WTF???

I think the smaller float on AIM....is unreliable anyway.

ExMachina1000

bfa1509 wrote: »

My portfolio is up 3.2% today so far (a daily record for me) off the back of expectation and not much else. A smart move would be to sell everything now before tomorrow's blood-bath of "good news" and pre-election adjustments.

But I'm not smart...

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

ExMachina1000

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

Stop losses become targets though. Traders can see how many shares that need to be bought to break down to the stop losses i.e. they can become targets to trigger.

RIGOLO

littlevillage wrote: »

I sold on Tuesday at £10.60....the trousers dropped out of it yesterday, went back to £8.20. I didn't bite. Thought more to fall.

Today, its back to £10.45 at close. WTF???

I think the smaller float on AIM....is unreliable anyway.

Ive ridden thru 20 of those cycles. I did say it would do that. Its volatiltiy index is 165% .. which says alot

Shedite27

Amazon
EPS target $7.41
EPS actual $12.37

Shares down

Cpfm

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Set stops.
Although my favourite strategy is to set a stop loss, stock drops hits sell point then finishes higher than it started.

Iv mastered this strategy lol

How long does a stop loss stay in effect? I placed one today on DEGIRO and a few hours later I was notified it got deleted. Do they have a lifespan?

Cpfm

Cpfm wrote: »

How long does a stop loss stay in effect? I placed one today on DEGIRO and a few hours later I was notified it got deleted. Do they have a lifespan?

At end of day or mid day?

Cpfm

Deleted User wrote: »

At end of day or mid day?

Placed it around midday, it got deleted about 16:30

Cpfm

Cpfm wrote: »

Placed it around midday, it got deleted about 16:30

Yeah, that was EOD for that exchange. You should be able to set a GTC stop loss that wont expire.

Cpfm

Thanks, I’ll check that out. ��

dontparkhere

Planning on buying intel. Does anyone have any insight on why the earning per share has increased so dramatically over the past 3 years (4$) vs the previous three years and beyond (2$).
Also tempted to buy more Rocket companies (rkt). I was hmming and hawing at the stock when it IPO'd, it started to rise and got FOMO at 29$... now 19$

Bob Harris

dontparkhere wrote: »

Planning on buying intel. Does anyone have any insight on why the earning per share has increased so dramatically over the past 3 years (4$) vs the previous three years and beyond (2$).
Also tempted to buy more Rocket companies (rkt). I was hmming and hawing at the stock when it IPO'd, it started to rise and got FOMO at 29$... now 19$

Share buybacks.