Share Picks 2020

voluntary

The time has come for cheap stocks, not the expensive ones.

I've mostly moved to already discounted cyclicals in the last few weeks which largely saved me in the last few days.

Plus cash looks like a winner candidate in November.

And Bank of America predicts 20% drop in stock valuations after elections.

Supercell

My crystal ball is telling me that COVID winter isnt priced in however if the election result in America is decisive we may have a relief rally to near the highs again but the worsening figures as we get into winter and COVID does its thing will mean another decline again.
That said if we have a vaccine with wide availability this side of Christmas who knows? I read one report that the CDC advised Governors to prepare for vaccine availability starting November 15th so it may happen.

Bruce Flatt (CEO of Brookfield Asset Management) reckons that this isn't the game changer everyone seems to think it is in terms of WFH and the big cities in decline. His main premise being that the weak will perish and the stronger will just get stronger.
Very interesting interview on Youtube worth a watch, I am a big fan of Mr Flatt.

voluntary

I wouldn't count on a vaccine wide availability. There's even no flu vaccines available and there are several manufacturers making them on a full steam. It will take years to have vaccine available for a wider population.

And then, how long will it be effective for? If less then 1 year then it may not become a game changer.

bfa1509

voluntary wrote: »

The same reason you will not sell on Monday even though deep down in your consciousnesses you know the blood in the markets have only started to flow.

I don't disagree. I'm waiting for the election -if it goes blue then I'm 100% out. The weakening of the dollar is enough incentive for me.

Someone said earlier that a Biden win may be good for the economy initially similar to when Obama was elected, but I think the market is wise to that this time.

If ever there is a positive, at least I'll have a nice cgt offset for all next year's gains...

One More Toy

bfa1509 wrote: »

I don't disagree. I'm waiting for the election -if it goes blue then I'm 100% out. The weakening of the dollar is enough incentive for me.

Someone said earlier that a Biden win may be good for the economy initially similar to when Obama was elected, but I think the market is wise to that this time.

If ever there is a positive, at least I'll have a nice cgt offset for all next year's gains...

I'm hanging in there as I've been doing the past 10 years. Presidents come and go, I've a 20 year time frame. Will it hurt seeing my stocks get battered? Sure.

I'll try and disconnect from cnbc and other media and hold out

Jim2007

bfa1509 wrote: »

Someone said earlier that a Biden win may be good for the economy initially similar to when Obama was elected, but I think the market is wise to that this time

And yet history show us that Republicans are really bad news for the market:




Betting on this kind of crap is what will cost people money in the long term.

Bob24

Pretty good decision matrix on the relevant economic policies influencing the markets, depending on who wins the presidency and who wins Congress!

https://twitter.com/ronstoeferle/status/1322264020628418560?s=21

Shedite27

Jim2007 wrote: »

And yet history show us that Republicans are really bad news for the market:




Betting on this kind of crap is what will cost people money in the long term.

Convenient you’ve left Trump out of that. I suspect no matter how far you go back, the market goes up with Republican presidents

sirboby

Shedite27 wrote: »

Convenient you’ve left Trump out of that. I suspect no matter how far you go back, the market goes up with Republican presidents

it says in the bottom
"Barack Obama's current term is incomplete"
So obviously the table was made during his second term, hence why Trump was excluded.

Democrats Historically do have a more positive impact on the stock market, that's not a debate.

That being said I don't know who would have a better impact over the next 4 years, Trump or Biden.

One More Toy

sirboby wrote: »

it says in the bottom
"Barack Obama's current term is incomplete"
So obviously the table was made during his second term, hence why Trump was excluded.

Democrats Historically do have a more positive impact on the stock market, that's not a debate.

That being said I don't know who would have a better impact over the next 4 years, Trump or Biden.

Isn't Biden all for increase in cgt in the states?

Jim2007

Shedite27 wrote: »

Convenient you’ve left Trump out of that. I suspect no matter how far you go back, the market goes up with Republican presidents

Well first of all I did not create the chart and secondly it does not matter if Trump is in it or not. The outcome will be the same - trying to time the market, following the talking heads, betting your gut etc will eventually cost you money.

Unfortunately though it takes about 20 years for people to prove it to themselves. Achieving an annualized return of 12.5% or so is very doable if one works at it. And if you achieve that you double your wealth every five years, so missing out of 20 years is a serious loss of wealth.

RIGOLO

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well first of all I did not create the chart and secondly it does not matter if Trump is in it or not. The outcome will be the same - trying to time the market, following the talking heads, betting your gut etc will eventually cost you money.

Unfortunately though it takes about 20 years for people to prove it to themselves. Achieving an annualized return of 12.5% or so is very doable if one works at it. And if you achieve that you double your wealth every five years, so missing out of 20 years is a serious loss of wealth.

any sign of a Share tip forthcoming ... :rolleyes:

RIGOLO

Supercell wrote: »

My crystal ball is telling me that COVID winter isnt priced in however if the election result in America is decisive we may have a relief rally to near the highs again but the worsening figures as we get into winter and COVID does its thing will mean another decline again.
That said if we have a vaccine with wide availability this side of Christmas who knows? I read one report that the CDC advised Governors to prepare for vaccine availability starting November 15th so it may happen.

Bruce Flatt (CEO of Brookfield Asset Management) reckons that this isn't the game changer everyone seems to think it is in terms of WFH and the big cities in decline. His main premise being that the weak will perish and the stronger will just get stronger.
Very interesting interview on Youtube worth a watch, I am a big fan of Mr Flatt.

Great interview. For a CEO he is very open and I expect he is good at his job and influencing country leaders to follow directions beneficial to his orgs portfolio.
Im not sure I buy into it all, but he delivered it with conviction and backup.
Real estate mogul says we will all be back in the office and expanding urban cities in the next 18 months... he couldnt very well say anything else.

Very interesting structure to their portfolio, they have huge interests in many areas renewables,property,infrastructure and all segregated, so which do you play BAM, BIP, BEP or BPY ?

Earnings coming up, BAM-Nov12 , BEP Nov4, BIP Nov12, BPY Nov6, defintely one to watch dependant on presidential result and as we exit this Covid thing in the next 6-18 months. Seems to have alot of its value already priced in. Cant see BPY doing much , but BIP and BEP could be good long term investments plus a healthy dividend.

ExMachina1000

Iv only just noticed that trading 212 offer pre and post hours in the cfd section. Extra time to over leverage yourselves. Margin call messages flying

Supercell

RIGOLO wrote: »

Great interview. For a CEO he is very open and I expect he is good at his job and influencing country leaders to follow directions beneficial to his orgs portfolio.
Im not sure I buy into it all, but he delivered it with conviction and backup.
Real estate mogul says we will all be back in the office and expanding urban cities in the next 18 months... he couldnt very well say anything else.

Very interesting structure to their portfolio, they have huge interests in many areas renewables,property,infrastructure and all segregated, so which do you play BAM, BIP, BEP or BPY ?

Earnings coming up, BAM-Nov12 , BEP Nov4, BIP Nov12, BPY Nov6, defintely one to watch dependant on presidential result and as we exit this Covid thing in the next 6-18 months. Seems to have alot of its value already priced in. Cant see BPY doing much , but BIP and BEP could be good long term investments plus a healthy dividend.

Yes, you are right, I thought the same myself, i'm not sure I am in full agreement with him about the WFH thing. Google has said its workers can permanently WFH if they want, my employer, another big American IT company has said the same, so I'm not so gung ho about office space returning to pre-covid levels. I do agree with him about the stronger retail outfits like SPG and probably MAC too will come out of this stronger though. MAC could easily become a multibagger as its really been hit hard, maybe too hard.
I'm in agreement with regards BPY, its had a great run from ~$10 to $14 recently mind you the dividends are still very tasty.
BEP has been having a great run recently and renewable are hot, I think there is plenty of runway left on that.

Of course the mother ship, BAM remains depressed and historically has outperformed the S&P500 for multiple years now, it was badly beaten in March so it maybe vulnerable to further declines in any overall market weakness, but for a longer term investment I think its pretty solid.

Timmaay

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Iv only just noticed that trading 212 offer pre and post hours in the cfd section. Extra time to over leverage yourselves. Margin call messages flying

Only for the most popular of markets. If your going down that road your better of using the spread betting section on IG, it allows you leveraged and extended hours for some markets,and the big advantage, its tax free because its considered gambling lol. I use it regularly enough to swing trade, I get hit on fees for having to pay to keep position's open overnight but they add up to alot less than having to pay cgt. I generally keep the leverage low however, and aim to keep half the account in cash.

One More Toy

Timmaay wrote: »

Only for the most popular of markets. If your going down that road your better of using the spread betting section on IG, it allows you leveraged and extended hours for some markets,and the big advantage, its tax free because its considered gambling lol. I use it regularly enough to swing trade, I get hit on fees for having to pay to keep position's open overnight but they add up to alot less than having to pay cgt. I generally keep the leverage low however, and aim to keep half the account in cash.

Glas it's working out for you. I tried cfds and spread betting early in my career with outstanding failure, I'd warn anyone off them

Timmaay

One More Toy wrote: »

Glas it's working out for you. I tried cfds and spread betting early in my career with outstanding failure, I'd warn anyone off them

Trust me I've made enough silly silly mistakes with them, I've zero interest in any sort of scalping/daytrading, complete headwrecking rollercoaster, I simply use spread betting now to swing trade across afew days/weeks timeframe and as I said I'm cautious with the leverage. They absolutely aren't for any beginners and need to be respected.

sirboby

Interesting day in the market,

I am getting into CDProjekt's stock, CDR for a ~3-6 month play

I think the valuation is high from what I can tell, but that doesn't seem to matter these days.

Share price has dropped 25% from its peek in the start of September, because of repeat delays on Cyberpunk 2077.
But I don't think that is a very bad thing for this company in particular. It has a great history of good user experience and I think it will boom not bust.

It has a few other things in the pipeline such as a ar Witcher phone game, news of which may temporally pump the share price but I would not want to be holding when it gets released.

Also I don't see the US election affecting this really at all.

Nemeses2050

All the Big Oil names in Green, are they banking on orange man winning?

jams100

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

All the Big Oil names in Green, are they banking on orange man winning?

More likely a vaccine, i think the markets are expecting a Biden win judging by the infrastructure stocks...clean energy, caterpillar etc.

Oil has been beaten to a pulp so much so that its undervalued, maybe I'm focusing to much on shell (which I own) but I read their earnings over the weekend along with their conference call, they are a compelling case for an investment at current prices, in saying that they'll probably dip another bit again.

In 12 months time oil will be one of those stocks people will look back at and say why didn't I get in on that, might never be this cheap again as the small producers get bullied out and the big boys reduce their operational costs and close smaller refineries.

How many people will be wanting their holidays when this virus starts to peter out with a vaccine, how many family members in Australia, USA that people haven't seen in over a year will want to go visit them? Aviation will kick off quick enough, im holding shell for 12+ months and see how it goes, worst case your getting a 5% dividend, that they've said they'll continue raising

Nemeses2050

jams100 wrote: »

More likely a vaccine, i think the markets are expecting a Biden win judging by the infrastructure stocks...clean energy, caterpillar etc.

Oil has been beaten to a pulp so much so that its undervalued, maybe I'm focusing to much on shell (which I own) but I read their earnings over the weekend along with their conference call, they are a compelling case for an investment at current prices, in saying that they'll probably dip another bit again.

In 12 months time oil will be one of those stocks people will look back at and say why didn't I get in on that, might never be this cheap again as the small producers get bullied out and the big boys reduce their operational costs and close smaller refineries.

How many people will be wanting their holidays when this virus starts to peter out with a vaccine, how many family members in Australia, USA that people haven't seen in over a year will want to go visit them? Aviation will kick off quick enough, im holding shell for 12+ months and see how it goes, worst case your getting a 5% dividend, that they've said they'll continue raising

I agree they have been beaten down to death (Bankruptcy) and as you noted big names will become much stronger with consolidation and diversification...

IMO RDS is a solid stock and definitely one of the Oil stocks to own for the long term... they're up nearly 10% in the last few days...

Tech is under pressure today and probably will suffer when other sectors start rising...

littlevillage

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I agree they have been beaten down to death (Bankruptcy) and as you noted big names will become much stronger with consolidation and diversification...

IMO RDS is a solid stock and definitely one of the Oil stocks to own for the long term... they're up nearly 10% in the last few days...

Tech is under pressure today and probably will suffer when other sectors start rising...

Soo

Shell
BP,
Exxon,
Chevron,
Total.

Any one that I am missing? And any particular favourite?

Nemeses2050

littlevillage wrote: »

Soo

Shell
BP,
Exxon,
Chevron,
Total.

Any one that I am missing? And any particular favourite?

All solid names however BP n EXXON slightly weaker of the pack

However I would go in the order of

RDS, Chevron, APA, MRO (last two High Risk, high growth)

Bob24

littlevillage wrote: »

Soo

Shell
BP,
Exxon,
Chevron,
Total.

Any one that I am missing? And any particular favourite?

I'd go for Total or Shell as my top choices.

I think Total is the best managed (and isn't too indebted comparatively to other players plus has a reasonable average production cost, which allowed them *not* to cut their dividend in spite of the massive crisis for the industry). IMO Shell has a problem with its current CEO, but still it is a solid company and if you buy the UK stock there is no withholding tax on dividends which is a nice bonus (particularly if you are not subject to income tax). Those 2 are also the ones which have made the most investments in renewables and energy distribution (still a small part on their business, but I find it positive that they are working on some diversification from oil).

Shedite27

I reckon today is one of those days to "buy when others are fearful"

AmberGold

On the subject of Oil, Tullow have sold their Uganda operation to Total and will be receiving $500M any day now. This combined with their hedging strategy @ $57 /bbl puts them in a good position to ride this out. Their new CEO seems to be very capable, worth a look.

outonawing

I'm surprised that Pfizer PFE hasn't moved higher, given the expectations about their vaccine.

MAJJ

Bob24 wrote: »

I'd go for Total or Shell as my top choices.

I think Total is the best managed (and isn't too indebted comparatively to other players plus has a reasonable average production cost, which allowed them *not* to cut their dividend in spite of the massive crisis for the industry). IMO Shell has a problem with its current CEO, but still it is a solid company and if you buy the UK stock there is no withholding tax on dividends which is a nice bonus (particularly if you are not subject to income tax). Those 2 are also the ones which have made the most investments in renewables and energy distribution (still a small part on their business, but I find it positive that they are working on some diversification from oil).

Hi Bob,
Would the EUR exchanges be the ones for Total and RDS. I know noob question and any action/ risk is my own, thank you.

treatyman

Is Shell RDSB.L or RSDB? Why is there 2? Sorry, newbie question.