Share Picks 2020

Jim2007

DilD wrote: »

Stocks are forward looking, they price in any possible scenario in advance, that's why stocks often fall on good earnings.

If they were priced so efficiently why would they fall? After all according to you every scenario has been priced in? The reality is that the EMH is just a theory and stock prices are highly speculative in the short run.

DilD wrote: »

For me, that's why I follow price action and not just fundamentals. If a stock is running into trouble, price will tell you well before the fundamentals will.

No it won't, most of the speculators could not take a set accounts apart if their lives depended on it. It's just group think, nothing more. That is why we have wirecard, worldcom, enron etc... and that is why people will continue to have such losses. In every case the signs were there, the questions were being asked, but ignored or brushed aside by analysts and speculators who failed to do their homework.

RIGOLO

Treppen wrote: »

Ncyt up again. Think it was a bit of a shake down.

tell me about it.. as I posted a few days ago I sold as it dropped and have been accumulating in the last 3 days .. Ive ended up with more shares.. and am happy.
Due an RNS ... everyone has realised they dont have a fridge that can hold a vaccine at -90 degs.

I see Jim (not Jim Cramer the other Jim) made a post , Ive not read it .. someone let me know if he put a tip in there or was it more pontificating.

sirboby

Jim2007 wrote: »

If they were priced so efficiently why would they fall? After all according to you every scenario has been priced in? The reality is that the EMH is just a theory and stock prices are highly speculative in the short run.

Wait, are you for or against active investing? I agree that there are always discrepancies that we can take advantage of but I thought from your earlier posts you had more of a passive investing mindset.

RIGOLO

sirboby wrote: »

Wait, are you for or against active investing? I agree that there are always discrepancies that we can take advantage of but I thought from your earlier posts you had more of a passive investing mindset.

Jim is the ultimate PASSIVE investor..
so passive he doesnt even buy stocks.. you cant get more passive .. ...

funkey_monkey

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Still unsure - TBH as to whether to go for the RI. It's either all in or all out. It's not massive numbers here, but it's good money.



If I go all in on the RI, I should end up with 5418 shares @ avg cost of £1.08:

Current
Purchases: 1073 shares @ £4.02
Dividend Shares: 115
Total shares: 1188
Cost: 1073 * £4.02 = £4,313.46

Max RI:
New shares: (1188 / 3) * 10 = 3960
Cost: 3960 @ £0.32 = £1,267.20

Post RI
Total Shares: 5148
Avg cost: (£4,313.46 + £1267.20) / 5148 = £1.08



If I sell now, I have losses of £2,507.71:

Sell Now
1188 * £1.52 = £1,805.75
Loss = £4,313.46 - £1,805.75 = £2,507.71



The temptation is to go all in on the RI and go long on the shares. If anything, the correct decision might be to see if shares drop and then purchase some more in order to get the avg cost to below £1.00 mark.

Thoughts?

Approx 1000 shares were in an account which automatically performed tail swallowing.
A small number on another platform I took the option to purchase.

So I've now got:

3561 shares costing £4883.43
Share cost: £1.37
Current value: £3204.90


Deficit: £1,678.53

Will hold what I've got now, as this will be long term investment - but may try to purchase some more in order to lower the share cost to below the £1.00 mark.

Limpy

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/11/investing/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-stock-sale-vaccine/index.html

Shedite27

Limpy wrote: »

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/11/investing/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-stock-sale-vaccine/index.html

This is a non-story IMO. He planned the sale on Aug 19th when the share price was at $38. He sold it at $41 - not a huge bump to be fair. And it's not like he cashed out all his shares, it was only about 20% of his holding.

The Moderna was different, they sold shares the day before they did a share issue. They knew the stock price would be smaller the day after they sold their stock. Very close to insider trading.

Jim2007

sirboby wrote: »

Wait, are you for or against active investing? I agree that there are always discrepancies that we can take advantage of but I thought from your earlier posts you had more of a passive investing mindset.

If you're investing in individual stocks, you're definitely not following a passive strategy.

Jim2007

Limpy wrote: »

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/11/investing/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-stock-sale-vaccine/index.html

So what? It was part of a regular exercise, it happens all the time. And it will be fully reviewed.


Over twenty five years ago myself and four others holding senior positions at a certain US multinational happened to sell our positions at the very highest price the share has ever hit (even today). And it took the SEC investigators nearly three months to sign off on it.


It's never a good idea to hold most of your portfolio in the company you work for so selling of positions is a regular event.

RIGOLO

Jim2007 wrote: »

So what? It was part of a regular exercise, it happens all the time. And it will be fully reviewed.


Over twenty five years ago myself and four others holding senior positions at a certain US multinational happened to sell our positions at the very highest price the share has ever hit (even today). And it took the SEC investigators nearly three months to sign off on it.


It's never a good idea to hold most of your portfolio in the company you work for so selling of positions is a regular event.

ahh so thats the stocks you trade in ..rsus , options , employee purchase programs
That explains why you dont trade the markets or have any tips for a stock , the stocks you traded was 25 years ago and were gifted to you.

PLTR flying ..

Just to explain to Jim , Palantir is a company on the NYSE, everyday millions of shares are traded and generally people try to buy low and sell high , these popele arent working for Palantir and didnt get them for turning up to the office, they are investors who are in the trenches trading on a regular basis..

try it some time

DilD

Jim2007 wrote: »

If they were priced so efficiently why would they fall? After all according to you every scenario has been priced in? The reality is that the EMH is just a theory and stock prices are highly speculative in the short run.





No it won't, most of the speculators could not take a set accounts apart if their lives depended on it. It's just group think, nothing more. That is why we have wirecard, worldcom, enron etc... and that is why people will continue to have such losses. In every case the signs were there, the questions were being asked, but ignored or brushed aside by analysts and speculators who failed to do their homework.

I don't believe in the EMH, otherwise how would we make money. Simply stating that often stocks fall on a good earnings report as the smart money buys in anticipation of a positive report and then sell once it reports, hence the saying buy the rumor sell the news.

Yes it will. I think we are trying to make the same point here regarding fundamentals? Companies often use accounting tricks to continue to display positive fundamentals even though the company may be running into trouble... Let's not pretend analysts are efficient in selecting stocks! You think a falling price isn't a sign of trouble in a stock?

There is no discussion here, different investing strategies require different rules and beliefs, there is no right or wrong. Simply pointing out to OP why stocks often fall on good reports.

DutchYurt

Increased my position in 4D Pharma again, I think it might go lower to 90 again, but once it hits the NASDAQ it'll climb. They have alot in their pipeline keep a keen eye on it!

RIGOLO

PLTR I think this dip is partly manipulated . Did a bit of more research on this crowd and it leads me to add another tranche of PLTR.

DOYU and HUYA doing well , seems alot of Asian tech stocks on the up, BABA, JD whilst US based ones are flat... is this a sign of the rotation to Asia emerging markets I spoke about earlier this week.

Mickiemcfist

RIGOLO wrote: »

PLTR I think this dip is partly manipulated . Did a bit of more research on this crowd and it leads me to add another tranche of PLTR.

DOYU and HUYA doing well , seems alot of Asian tech stocks on the up, BABA, JD whilst US based ones are flat... is this a sign of the rotation to Asia emerging markets I spoke about earlier this week.

Where do you see the value in Palantir? Other than the fact that Thiel is involved, I don't see the appeal.

DutchYurt

Edesa CEO just gave an update on each of their pipeline can watch it here if you want https://player.vimeo.com/video/478576744

Some very promising results. EB05 used to treat covid early results like great but still has a go/no go study and phase 3, same with the contact dermatitis. Also no debt!

Hoping the market reacts positively soon instead of the current -3% will wait and see..

Any one else in Edesa? any thoughts? Ive DCA'd down to 7 and it's currently at 5.5 so awhile yet before I turn a profit

RIGOLO

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Where do you see the value in Palantir? Other than the fact that Thiel is involved, I don't see the appeal.

I just found more positive reasons than negatives when researching them... the direct listing was a bold move , last big company to do this was SPOTIFY. If PLTR had done an IPO the underwriters would have hyped it per norm and it would have been over 50 on launch day. Going the direct listing pisses Wall ST off cos they lose the commission , so it takes them a while to come round and support your price.
Their guidance is for over 1billion revenue, and a 30% growth rate , thats more than many other cloud, data analytics, devops companies with larger valuations . They dont have alot of customers but the ones they do are the biggest commercial and government. Once you get your hooks into Govt contracts its impossible for them to get rid of you. Government and big data will go hand in hand. Plus their solutions biggest issue will be scaling DOWN, most companies develop a product for small customers and then have to figure out how to scale it up, PLTR started with the large corps , worked out the kinks and are now offering it to smaller companies. And sometimes I follow the money, the owners have a track record and options interest was strong.

Other posters here have done far better than me on this stock getting in much earlier, lets see how it rolls in the next couple of days.

Still a very green day for me, some large holdings are well up NCYT, APT, INO NVAX and WKHS among others which is masking the hit im taking on PLTR.

Rome wasnt built in a day ..

Shedite27

Looking at some of the "reopening stocks". I always assumed when we got a vaccine approved, these would hop

• Cruise lines - Carnival, jumped 40% Monday, now up just 8% since vaccine annoucned
• Airlines - American Airlines, jumped 17% Monday, now up just 2% since vaccine annoucned
• Theme Parks - SixFlags, jumped 21% Monday, now up just 8% since vaccine annoucned

When these opened 3 days ago I thought these were gonna run away.

Nemeses2050

RIGOLO wrote: »

PLTR I think this dip is partly manipulated . Did a bit of more research on this crowd and it leads me to add another tranche of PLTR.

DOYU and HUYA doing well , seems alot of Asian tech stocks on the up, BABA, JD whilst US based ones are flat... is this a sign of the rotation to Asia emerging markets I spoke about earlier this week.

Not sure PLTR will be a good idea now.

Chinese stocks have gone bonkers today especially EV names. Would be vary of jumping into them now.

Asana n Jfrog looking very interesting.

Mickiemcfist

This is a question not a share pick as I have zero industry knowledge, I like to invest in what I know. But what do people think of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Walmart & McKesson as a play to catch a 2021/2022 Vaccine distribution and administer upswing. I'm thinking about splitting across all 3 so I'm not particularly exposed to any.

WBA: "Has one of the largest global pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution networks, with more than 425* distribution centers delivering to more than 250,000** pharmacies, doctors, health centers and hospitals each year in more than 20* countries"

McKesson: "With over 100 distribution centres across Europe we deliver medicines and healthcare products to more than 55,000 pharmacies and hospitals every day. Unlike many other wholesalers, McKesson Europe operates full line warehouses that carry all pharmaceutical products available on the market."

Walmart: the US's 5th highest grossing pharmacy by dispensing revenue. It's also got a lot going for it outside of Pharmacy.

Any opinions appreciated.

Nemeses2050

Shedite27 wrote: »

Looking at some of the "reopening stocks". I always assumed when we got a vaccine approved, these would hop

• Cruise lines - Carnival, jumped 40% Monday, now up just 8% since vaccine annoucned
• Airlines - American Airlines, jumped 17% Monday, now up just 2% since vaccine annoucned
• Theme Parks - SixFlags, jumped 21% Monday, now up just 8% since vaccine annoucned

When these opened 3 days ago I thought these were gonna run away.

Agree, I too thought these cyclicals would fly away on Vaccine news. But the rally only lasted three days n most of them have retreated back to mondays levels...

Good lesson, to not chase them and burn your fingers. However I would start accumulating them in the dips

Lex Luthor

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Not sure PLTR will be a good idea now.

Chinese stocks have gone bonkers today especially EV names. Would be vary of jumping into them now.

Asana n Jfrog looking very interesting.

$SOLO up around 27% today, took my profits @ $4.80

Slanty

Lex Luthor wrote: »

$SOLO up around 27% today, took my profits @ $4.80

Picked these up after reading about it here first. Great shout.

Do you think it has potential to run? Did I see it as OTC?

Atlantic Dawn

Any thoughts on Trane Technologies, they own Thermo King which manufacturer refridgeration equipment which will be in demand to keep Covid vaccine at -70C.

NYSE: TT
https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/news/thermo-king-ready-for--70-degrees-celsius-65189

Lex Luthor

Slanty wrote: »

Picked these up after reading about it here first. Great shout.

Do you think it has potential to run? Did I see it as OTC?

EV’s all the rage at the moment especially the Chinese ones
I’m just taking profit after a big leg up but will jump in if it retraces

RIGOLO

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

This is a question not a share pick as I have zero industry knowledge, I like to invest in what I know. But what do people think of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Walmart & McKesson as a play to catch a 2021/2022 Vaccine distribution and administer upswing. I'm thinking about splitting across all 3 so I'm not particularly exposed to any.

WBA: "Has one of the largest global pharmaceutical wholesale and distribution networks, with more than 425* distribution centers delivering to more than 250,000** pharmacies, doctors, health centers and hospitals each year in more than 20* countries"

McKesson: "With over 100 distribution centres across Europe we deliver medicines and healthcare products to more than 55,000 pharmacies and hospitals every day. Unlike many other wholesalers, McKesson Europe operates full line warehouses that carry all pharmaceutical products available on the market."

Walmart: the US's 5th highest grossing pharmacy by dispensing revenue. It's also got a lot going for it outside of Pharmacy.

Any opinions appreciated.

Ive traded in both WBA and WMT. my 2 cents
I highly rate WMT, they have very aggressive and forward thinking strategys. Getting into the online selling, kerbside pickup, many other factors and are a staple, I still like them for a very long term hold.
WBA didnt work out as well or move as I expected, their high debt and the fact people arent shopping as much, popping into the pharmacies, picking up some sunglasses etc seems to be holding them back. Once, if, eventually we return to norm then they will probably return nearer their highs.

RIGOLO

long post , feel free to ignore

So warts and all stories are both catharthic and may help newer investors learn somethings , in fact older investors everyone can do with a refresher every so often .

Ive said before I spend weekends researching upcoming earnings, so last weekend my research lead me to plan a very aggressive active week . To be honest after the previous weeks election turmoil and late nights its been demanding, anyways enough violins.

So first thing Monday bought into BIONTECH, had seen their earnings were coming up, saw the Pfizer hookup, saw they had brought the date forward and saw big options interest, and expected positive vaccine news .
What I didnt forsee was the collapse it would bring to some sectors and the mad ramp it brought to cyclicals , that was the other side of the trade to play. I didnt but we made some on BNTX

Then I went into the next part of the plan, swing trading /chasing/investing/gambling/speculating whatever you want to call it. Im not listing all my trades ..

Took profits in NIO, added some some dry powder, took profits in CRSR from a short play on their earnings, jumped in on PLTR.
Was monitoring LI,XPEV , weekends research told me to do so, but didnt bite, did trade a mid day dip in both during yesterdays Chinese EV all you can eat buffett and clawed some back.
Bought into DOYU and BABA cos I see huge Asia sector rotation but hadnt spotted that PDD a BABA Asia online shopping rival was reporting this week and they popped.

So morals of the story , (I dont claim to be unique in thinking any of these, there are many on here who see this and more)
1) Cyclicals, travel,hotels,cinema will rebound considerably when we reopen, lets keep some cash on the side to play that when it happens.
2) Look to the oppossite side of a trade , if someone will bring positive news, be careful its not a negative for another holding or a positive for another sector.
3) Play sectors , if you spot a winner, then theres a big chance his competitors in the same game will be a winner. (Alternatively you can play Jims sector.. its non-existent there are no stocks in it)
4) The value of holding, all that and yet sitting tight on NIO probably would have the same net result.
5) Character - who you are plays a huge part in how you trade. Appetite for risk, patience, discipline,zest for life and age etc. Your biggest enemy is yourself.
6) Asis ASia Asia
7) Research Research research

So where are we today still in the green on the week, NCYT recovered alot of its losses, Ive increased my holding having bought big in the dips.
And we move onto next week with a trade on JD.com .
As for Palantir, well Ive two thoughts. Firsty Ive worked on US Government contracts from the technical side in the past, currently stil do in fact, and once the hooks are in the hooks are in and they have big budgets. Lets see what the analyst upgrades are next week.
Secondly well my youngest still needs walking to school only 8, I had promised here midweek some Fortnite V-bucks as she asked how the investments are going, I told her we bought a US Govt spy company (PLTR) and if they did well she would get extra v-bucks. I had to tell her this monring they were red overnight no extra v-bucks, but she still gets the basic amount promised. Her response -- I told you you should have held onto the chinese EV stocks, which she had, its a joy to talk investments with your 8 year old walking to school, like I said never ignore a source and its not all about the money

But not to worry as long as the log of 2 is on our side we will win.
This all goes into the trading journal, cant recommend having a journal highly enough.

Nemeses2050

@Rigolo - thanks for the rant

Talking about Cyclicals.

Hammerson PLC - HMSO Commercial REIT (Probably not everyone's cup of tea) they have various properties all over EU including Dumdrum SC. They have been beaten to death but with Vaccine in site and a new CEO it would make a good pick for medium term. They had liquidity issues earlier in the year but they have sorted it and have enough cash to announce a div of 2P.

One More Toy

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

@Rigolo - thanks for the rant

Talking about Cyclicals.

Hammerson PLC - HMCO Commercial REIT (Probably not everyone's cup of tea) they have various properties all over EU including Dumdrum SC. They have been beaten to death but with Vaccine in site and a new CEO it would make a good pick for medium term. They had liquidity issues earlier in the year but they have sorted it and have enough cash to announce a div of 2P.

Is this hammerson, symbol Hmso?

Nemeses2050

One More Toy wrote: »

Is this hammerson, symbol Hmso?

Yes it is, corrected the ticker

Skippy along

@Rigolo
Great read on your post well done the main point i took from it and I think it exactly reflects my own position
" 5) Character - who you are plays a huge part in how you trade. Appetite for risk, patience, discipline,zest for life and age etc. Your biggest enemy is yourself."

I might add I'm up 69% on NIO profits which I'm struggling to take.