Share Picks 2020

RIGOLO

littlemac1980 wrote: »

With all the NIO discussion in the past few pages I thought this article might be worth a look :

https://apple.news/AYqpNlu9bS6Wo3mNk1uLgIQ

The Citron report is enbedded as a link in this article for anyone who cares to read.

I don’t have any NIO or know any of the background re Citron but figured I’d share the link.

Shorts have lost over 3.5 billion $ shorting NIO this year.
They are desperate to recover theier losses

Citron is a well known short hedge fund, ive posted before about them and their owner who is barred from trading in HK.
I would ignore CITRON analysis , its complete garbage and is pure spin. Ive run into them on a number of stocks where they brought out research to short the stock and so far Ive beat them everytime.

What you shouldnt ignore is the war-chest CITRON has, they have access to alot of capital directly and alot of shorts will add to that pot.
So thats part of the game , fundamentals can be meaningless, its just two funds going against each other and the retail investor is hanging on.

If your interested in how shorts brings things down for their purposes.. watch this video, its an insight you wont see from anyone these days, cos its 14 years old, back in the good old days, a time when people said what they think and not what they are told.
Jim Cramer , lays it all out there, "who cares about the fundamentals " taking 20 million to hit the offers , spread some negative news, ring a few reporters , spread a few negative rumours, short apple wait for the drop and then buy long or sell puts as MacWorld approached.

DutchYurt

Any one have any thoughts on 4D now in terms of whether we'll see more of a decrease. I may add more to try and DCA

Meleftone

Moderna
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-moderna-vaccine-shown-to-be-94-5-effective-and-easier-to-store-according-to-interim-analysis-12133893

pre market climbing

Liamo_mu

More vaccine news. Killing my Netflix and Shopify Stock but working wonders for my travel stock.

Feel it's a real overreaction to affect Netflix and Shopify

DutchYurt

DutchYurt wrote: »

Any one have any thoughts on 4D now in terms of whether we'll see more of a decrease. I may add more to try and DCA

I'm surprised it's at where it is now but ....... my average is much lower than the current SP but I'm going to buy more at this price.
Really confident we'll see price x2 current levels at least before end of Q1 2021 and longterm I expect x4+

rugbyman

rugbyman wrote: »

..................

I reckon there will be a UK/EU deal this week, this will lift Irish and UK shares.

Where can I put 10 k euro to gain from this, quick 10% would do me.

Thanks

Buy sterling if you are that sure
A deal might not get 10% but it'll definitely get a few %.
Expecting a quick 10% on stocks or currency or anything is a tad tall orderish although as per my last post I'm expecting 4D shareprice to be double what it is now before end of Q1 2021 :pac:

dontparkhere

Any thoughts on ebike/escooter stocks?

RIGOLO

rugbyman wrote: »

Chaps, I was thinking of starting a thread with my question, but there seems to be quite a bit of activity in here.
I read it daily and enjoy the snippets.

my question is

I reckon there will be a UK/EU deal this week, this will lift Irish and UK shares.

Where can I put 10 k euro to gain from this, quick 10% would do me.

Thanks

to be blunt.. this question raises an issue for us all , we have to ask ourselves the question

Do I want to make a quick 10% in a short space of time , in your case turning 10k into 11k ? (boosting the wallet)
or
Do I want to be right in calling a geo-political move , in your case, calling UK-EU trade deal ? (boosting the ego)

Ego is the enemy.

Just be careful you dont let your ego dictate your trades and miss out on potential earnings elsewhere, because you want to be right, perhaps there are other sources to get 10k to 11k.
We are ALL guilty of falling into that trap.. its human nature...

Speaking of geo-political events , delighted to see a trade deal sorted in Asia, Ive been saying Asia is where the games at, thats my ego massaged , lets see if the wallet is massaged in the next few months and years.

‘A coup for China’: Analysts react to the world’s largest trade deal that excludes the U.S.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/rcep-15-asia-pacific-countries-including-china-sign-worlds-largest-trade-deal.html

Mickiemcfist

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Another stock I'm thinking of is Moderna, I now it's priced high @ $77 since it started work on the Covid vaccine, however it's using mRNA technology, Pfizer seems to have proven it's efficacy using their own mRNA vaccine. I know there's a lot more to vaccines than using the right technology but Pfizer seems to at least be proving the concept. They use this technology in most if not all their pipeline so for me this improves the outlook but the price hasn't moved much.

Glad i got in on this one, just didn't put enough in it. Up 30%

rugbyman

Thank you all for your replies,

Rigolo, the ego bit is not me.
We are at the gates of either a deal with the UK or a very bad situation for the UK ( No deal).
It will make quite a bit of turmoil in the markets either way.
Since I asked this question this morning the potential 10 per cent, say 7 % was gained in certain mainstream UK shares.

In my case I bought into HBSC FTSE 100, it had risen circa 8% when I bought in.

My reasoning is that its a sort of cannot lose bet. The FTSE is at its highest today, since the start of Covid, when it had plunged. In the event of no deal( a 5 % chance i.m.o.), my investment will fall, I wont sell, there will be another day.


I enjoy all of the talk on here, mostly about USA shares. Its been a great run for lots of people, not my cup of tea

Regards

Shedite27

rugbyman wrote: »

Thank you all for your replies,

Rigolo, the ego bit is not me.
We are at the gates of either a deal with the UK or a very bad situation for the UK ( No deal).
It will make quite a bit of turmoil in the markets either way.
Since I asked this question this morning the potential 10 per cent, say 7 % was gained in certain mainstream UK shares.

In my case I bought into HBSC FTSE 100, it had risen circa 8% when I bought in.

My reasoning is that its a sort of cannot lose bet. The FTSE is at its highest today, since the start of Covid, when it had plunged. In the event of no deal( a 5 % chance i.m.o.), my investment will fall, I wont sell, there will be another day.


I enjoy all of the talk on here, mostly about USA shares. Its been a great run for lots of people, not my cup of tea

Regards

FTSE 100 is up 2% today, and that's just the Moderna bounce. None of that was your 10% Brexit bounce you're looking for.

jams100

Liamo_mu wrote: »

More vaccine news. Killing my Netflix and Shopify Stock but working wonders for my travel stock.

Feel it's a real overreaction to affect Netflix and Shopify

Shopify up over 100% ytd:
Are you really that surprised?
Shopify doubled it's market cap this year. Largely due to stay at home orders, when retail opens up properly over the next 6 months where is Shopifys growth going to come from?
I'm not saying they haven't significantly improved their market share long term they and the likes of Amazon have, but they are both probably going to be relatively flat for the next while.

Netflix up 50% ytd:
I'm struggling to see where the likes of Netflix and Spotify go from here. Netflix has already significantly missed their new subscribers targets for q3 and the analysts estimates by much more. Put it another way if people didn't buy a Netflix subscription by now considering all the lockdowns why would they next month? The streaming business is becoming increasingly competitive too nowadays with Amazon, Disney+, AppleTv etc. They are also going to incur more costs now that most productions have resumed after the lockdowns, this along with them holding 15.5 billion in long term debt are all reasons I'm going to just spectate.

On a separate note I think a lot of the easy money is gone now, just looking at some stock prices there, the likes of live nation is nearly at its January highs, yes there is a lot of pent up demand for the likes of entertainment and airlines etc. and they've all reduced costs but things won't return to normal overnight and all of these companies have burned through a massive amount of their reserves and might have to dilute shareholders further. Be careful and do your own research. We might have vaccines but we're still in the midst of this pandemic, patience is key!

Nice to look at my portfolio this morning to see iag up nearly 95%

rugbyman

Thank you Shedite

My 7 % comment was a considerable mistake on my part , good job I am not in charge of
important matters.

robman60

rugbyman wrote: »

Thank you all for your replies,

Rigolo, the ego bit is not me.
We are at the gates of either a deal with the UK or a very bad situation for the UK ( No deal).
It will make quite a bit of turmoil in the markets either way.
Since I asked this question this morning the potential 10 per cent, say 7 % was gained in certain mainstream UK shares.

In my case I bought into HBSC FTSE 100, it had risen circa 8% when I bought in.

My reasoning is that its a sort of cannot lose bet. The FTSE is at its highest today, since the start of Covid, when it had plunged. In the event of no deal( a 5 % chance i.m.o.), my investment will fall, I wont sell, there will be another day.


I enjoy all of the talk on here, mostly about USA shares. Its been a great run for lots of people, not my cup of tea

Regards

Worth also noting that while a deal may be good for UK business and thus the FTSE 100, the stronger pound is likely to lead to a lower price for the FTSE so it's down to assessing which will be the stronger pull.

DutchYurt

jams100 wrote: »

Nice to look at my portfolio this morning to see iag up nearly 95%

Do you think this will keep running? I might take some profit and come back in when it comes down to 1.5 or something, then again might miss the gravy train, ithas a while yet to go before getting back to full strength

DutchYurt

I heard someone describe owning fastly stock as a ball ache and it couldn't be more apt.

Edesa also coming into contention for said description. I'm hoping once it gets funding it'll take off.

My overall portfolio is down 4% today, here's hoping for some green over the coming days.

Does any one have any US infrastructure and engineering companies in their portfolio? I think it might be a good play after biden winning, apparently there was a slow in contracts being awarded under trump, but you can only delay infrastructure so long..

Green&Red

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Picked a bad day to go in on Fiverr, bought @ 179 on Friday, trading at 139 now. Thankfully it's my only position in the red but Jesus I barely had time to put my hands back in my pocket. Just wish I bought a week later.

Bought in at $137, up to 174 this week, thanks for that

Mickiemcfist

Green&Red wrote: »

Bought in at $137, up to 174 this week, thanks for that

Have a pint on me!

Supercell

Anyone having a look at RIDE?, I think this has multibagger potential all over it.

DutchYurt

Supercell wrote: »

Anyone having a look at RIDE?, I think this has multibagger potential all over it.

RIDE? no, the/a Ride, yes.

RIGOLO

Supercell wrote: »

Anyone having a look at RIDE?, I think this has multibagger potential all over it.

RIDE. DPHC WKHS all connected as far as I know. Ive been on them for a 6 months.
RIDE is a consolidation with DPHC spac, they also took over an exisiting car plant converting to EV manufacturing. Thats a big advantage to have an existing plant.
I think RIDE have potential but Im playing the WKHS angle as they are in play for a big USPS contract and own 10% of RIDE.
If WKHS win that contract then they will be outsourcing some manufacturing to RIDE, the 2 stocks move in tandem. But RIDE also has its own vehicle suite.

RIGOLO

CBAT hit 10.50 , 70% gain for the day , compounding last weeks gains .
Could this be legit, lets see what they say in their earnings.

Thats softening the blow to my other stocks from Modernas magic potion

jams100

DutchYurt wrote: »

Do you think this will keep running? I might take some profit and come back in when it comes down to 1.5 or something, then again might miss the gravy train, ithas a while yet to go before getting back to full strength

I imagine its going to be a turbulent 3 or 4 months (excuse the pun) as people realise it will take time for vaccine to be administered then more time to ramp back up capacity. Its a 24-36 month hold for me. Hoping to see €3 by then. Plenty of upside in IAG if you are willing to play it long imo.
There talking about normality by/for next winter.

Have taken the plunge today on Electronic Arts, just a small position, hoping it falls further, going to average down if it does, given the boom in online gaming I see a nice bit of upside potential. They took a bit of a hammering for revising guidance downwards. They are starting a share buyback program and have started giving a dividend, even if it is only 0.5%

mitresize5

Bought a nice wedge of Dufry at 27 CHF and up to 59 at one stage today.

They are the biggest players in airport retail globally and hit a peak of 176 CHF in 2018 so if you're looking at something for the medium term they are worth a gander

Nemeses2050

RIGOLO wrote: »

RIDE. DPHC WKHS all connected as far as I know. Ive been on them for a 6 months.
RIDE is a consolidation with DPHC spac, they also took over an exisiting car plant converting to EV manufacturing. Thats a big advantage to have an existing plant.
I think RIDE have potential but Im playing the WKHS angle as they are in play for a big USPS contract and own 10% of RIDE.
If WKHS win that contract then they will be outsourcing some manufacturing to RIDE, the 2 stocks move in tandem. But RIDE also has its own vehicle suite.

I'm in WKHS too, hoping for that big order from USPS soon.

Got into NYCT finally at 8.30 Even though Vaccine makers are making a beeline. Testing will still need to be done, albight may be not for long...

With every Vaccine update, Cyclicals gaining momentum. IMO its time to start accumulating them in evey dip.

Someone spoke about Alteryx, I reckon it could go down to 90's.

RIGOLO

SABR - SABRE one to watch when the travel industry returns .
Many never heard of them but they are the backend transaction procesing for the bilions of bookings reservations flight combinations itineararies for 70% of the whole travel industry. All the major airlines many hotel chains.

Currently trading in the low 10s, highs over 20.
Will recover when the rest of the industry recovers.

RIGOLO

CBAT 5 to 11 in 2 days what a ride , gotta take some off the table before market closes. Lets see what earnings bring..

Thargor

Would love to see some screenshots of all these amazing 100%+ trades a certain poster is making on a daily basis, surprised they're not working for Goldman Sachs or something, unless its all bullsh1t hindsight that is...

sReq | uTeK

Bought 100 shares of NIO at 3.95 nice return so far.

cronos

Would be great to get some structure in this thread. Not sure exactly how the structure would work. But specifically for recommended trades and reasons for those recommendations along with prices etc....