Share Picks 2020

pearcider

sReq | uTeK wrote: »

What do people think of NIO for long term 5+ years?

I was looking at people picks from the start of the year and surely this wins the thread. Hope you put the money in. What’s it up 3000 percent ?

makeorbrake

hottipper wrote: »

Aren't you just shorting the $dxy you'd want to hope the double bottom in the $dxy doesn't hold or say goodbye to the value of your bitcoins. My point is you don't need a whole industry for it.

There's far more to it than that. I think you may have misunderstood the proposition at hand.

Bob24

hottipper wrote: »

Aren't you just shorting the $dxy you'd want to hope the double bottom in the $dxy doesn't hold or say goodbye to the value of your bitcoins. My point is you don't need a whole industry for it.

Different things.

Shorting the DXY pretty much involves being bullish the EUR. Being long BTC doesn’t (quite the opposite).

hottipper

Bob24 wrote: »

Different things.

Shorting the DXY pretty much involves being bullish the EUR. Being long BTC doesn’t (quite the opposite).

https://ibb.co/M5SxkDq
its not like this then? lets see the how the next 3 months work out

Bob24

hottipper wrote: »

https://ibb.co/M5SxkDq
its not like this then? lets see the how the next 3 months work out

No it isn’t (at least no in my opinion).

The DXY tracks the value of the USD relative to other currencies (mostly relative to the EUR which is more than half of the DXY currency basket).

But if fiat currencies in general are getting debased, they can all fall against BTC regardless of how they are doing relative to each other. Plus BTC has its own head and tail winds which aren’t necessarily linked to the dollar.

Now I am not making any prediction here. Just saying that seeing a long BTC position as roughly equivalent to a short DXY position is incorrect. Those 2 things are different (although I am not saying there is zero correlation, I agree that a falling DXY is overly positive for BTC).

ExMachina1000

Recieved notification on my trading 212 app that due to extreme circumstances or something along those lines trading 212 will be decreasing leverage on all stocks to 1:2. Tge notification is a warning to people that they need to either close positions or increase the funds in their accounts to prevent margin call and position close.
There was one days notice and after a bit of uproar they have extended the notice to the 1st December.

The community page was an absolute horror show with people posting their massively overleveraged accounts and not knowing why to do.

It is a real eyeopener in to how so many people dont actually understand margins, leverage etc.
Cfd gambling

Stormington

Bob24 wrote: »

No it isn’t (at least no in my opinion).

The DXY tracks the value of the USD relative to other currencies (mostly relative to the EUR which is more than half of the DXY currency basket).

But if fiat currencies in general are getting debased, they can all fall against BTC regardless of how they are doing relative to each other. Plus BTC has its own head and tail winds which aren’t necessarily linked to the dollar.

Now I am not making any prediction here. Just saying that seeing a long BTC position as roughly equivalent to a short DXY position is incorrect. Those 2 things are different (although I am not saying there is zero correlation, I agree that a falling DXY is overly positive for BTC).

DXY being a currency basket is a different thing to BTC's asset class?
And DXY dropping could see the Euro pumping against the dollar and could cause BTC to be cheaper in EUR but more expensive in USD, which is different to BTC gaining or losing value in and of itself?

Bob24

Stormington wrote: »

And DXY dropping could see the Euro pumping against the dollar and could cause BTC to be cheaper in EUR but more expensive in USD, which is different to BTC gaining or losing value in and of itself?

Yes it is different. The kind of volatility you could expect in BTC is leagues ahead of the volatility you can see in the DXY. So you can easily see the DXY dropping and the price of BTC in euros increasing at the same time (if the euro gains 5% vs the dollar but at the same time BTC gains 20% vs the dollar, BTC becomes significantly more expensive in euros while the DXY is dropping).

Stormington

Bob24 wrote: »

So you can easily see the DXY dropping and the price of BTC in euros increasing at the same time (if the euro gains 5% vs the dollar but at the same time BTC gains 20% vs the dollar, BTC becomes significantly more expensive in euros while the DXY is dropping)..

Gotcha, thanks.
Added to the list with Vixxy and others.

bcklschaps

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Recieved notification on my trading 212 app that due to extreme circumstances ot something along those lines trading 212 will be decreasing leverage on all stocks to 1:2. Tge notification is a warning to people that they need to either close positions or increase the funds in their accounts to prevent margin call and position close.
There was one days notice and after a bit of uproar they have extended the notice to the 1st December.

The community page was an absolute horror show with people posting their massively overleveraged accounts and not knowing why to do.

It is a real eyeopener in to how so many people dont actually understand margins, leverage etc.
Cfd gambling

Scary stuff.

One More Toy

Only an idiot would use cfds, I work in a semi legal role and had to review documentation regarding cfds. 80+ per cent of retail investors lose money. Ridiculous. I hope the EU bans them

ExMachina1000

One More Toy wrote: »

Only an idiot would use cfds, I work in a semi legal role and had to review documentation regarding cfds. 80+ per cent of retail investors lose money. Ridiculous. I hope the EU bans them

For sure. That percentage is posted on all of the cfd broker sites. Its gambling

Jim2007

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

For sure. That percentage is posted on all of the cfd broker sites. Its gambling

Trying to time the market in any form is gambling and just like every other form of gambling the punter always believes that some how they are going to beat the odds. And heaven help any who points it out to them ;-)

cronos

Any recommendations for stock? Have Boohoo, Nio and JFrog currently. Planning to hold long term.

One More Toy

cronos wrote: »

Any recommendations for stock? Have Boohoo, Nio and JFrog currently. Planning to hold long term.

I like Sonos at the moment, it's a brand I see growing, seems like everyone at work has a sonos device. Having said that it's trading in a high price range so do your own research

RIGOLO

We all have limited time, so this weekends research was not spent (yet) on upcoming earnings but in reading PSH Pershing Square Holdings (Bill Ackmans fund) June semi-annual report, all 47 pages, its a cliffhanger, I cant wait for the movie.

So Id begun building a position in the PSTH SPAC (thanks to ambergold who alerted me to it) and based on the report Im increasing that significantly in coming weeks. Its the largest blank cheque spac in operation 4 billion in investor funds , 12 billion was bid, and they shut it down after 2 days it was so oversubscribed. PSH have option to add 1-3 billion making it 5-7 billion in total.
Lots of rumours and public comment from Ackman himself saying he is having discussions with alot of well known private entities, airbnb, bloomberg and stripe. I think Stripe is the one he wants, PSH need to add a fintech to its portfolio, they are overweighted to restaurant and hospitality. And when you consider PSH made 40% gains even with major holdings in those sectors it shows how well managed it is as they hedged early for a shutdown and won big. Also PSH is in 101-105th position for FTSE100 rating, Ackman wants addition to FTSE100 and becoming an index funds target, he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued and isnt already in, but Im betting he is betting on the PSTH deal when its announced getting them over the line.Also Ackman has reduced the normal SPAC founders shares and commissions, so its all benefiting the spac investor. Once the merger is announced I expect PSTH to increase considerably.

So its all about PATIENCE, we are entering a time of life and the seasons where foraging for food, stockpiling and hibernation will all pay dividends in the new year. Same applies to stocks and thats why Im gathering up all the PSTH nuts I can buy and expecting to feast on them come early spring at the latest.

BlackFriday e-commerce up 22% on last year.. should be a few stocks out there that will report amazing numbers for Q4 based on this, just need to find the ones that dont have all of this priced in yet or have had a small dip. So again patience and ability to wait for the pop will pay off in 2021.

this is all just opinion good luck all.

Jim2007

he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. Next keep in mind that on average these vehicles have a return of about -15% and a median of about -35%, that means they need to be highly under valued if the investor is to manage the risk and get an appropriate return.

Be very careful with these type of vehicles.

One More Toy

RIGOLO wrote: »

We all have limited time, so this weekends research was not spent (yet) on upcoming earnings but in reading PSH Pershing Square Holdings (Bill Ackmans fund) June semi-annual report, all 47 pages, its a cliffhanger, I cant wait for the movie.

So Id begun building a position in the PSTH SPAC (thanks to ambergold who alerted me to it) and based on the report Im increasing that significantly in coming weeks. Its the largest blank cheque spac in operation 4 billion in investor funds , 12 billion was bid, and they shut it down after 2 days it was so oversubscribed. PSH have option to add 1-3 billion making it 5-7 billion in total.
Lots of rumours and public comment from Ackman himself saying he is having discussions with alot of well known private entities, airbnb, bloomberg and stripe. I think Stripe is the one he wants, PSH need to add a fintech to its portfolio, they are overweighted to restaurant and hospitality. And when you consider PSH made 40% gains even with major holdings in those sectors it shows how well managed it is as they hedged early for a shutdown and won big. Also PSH is in 101-105th position for FTSE100 rating, Ackman wants addition to FTSE100 and becoming an index funds target, he doesnt understand why PSH is undervalued and isnt already in, but Im betting he is betting on the PSTH deal when its announced getting them over the line.Also Ackman has reduced the normal SPAC founders shares and commissions, so its all benefiting the spac investor. Once the merger is announced I expect PSTH to increase considerably.

So its all about PATIENCE, we are entering a time of life and the seasons where foraging for food, stockpiling and hibernation will all pay dividends in the new year. Same applies to stocks and thats why Im gathering up all the PSTH nuts I can buy and expecting to feast on them come early spring at the latest.

BlackFriday e-commerce up 22% on last year.. should be a few stocks out there that will report amazing numbers for Q4 based on this, just need to find the ones that dont have all of this priced in yet or have had a small dip. So again patience and ability to wait for the pop will pay off in 2021.

this is all just opinion good luck all.

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

AmberGold

Jim2007 wrote: »

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. Next keep in mind that on average these vehicles have a return of about -15% and a median of about -35%, that means they need to be highly under valued if the investor is to manage the risk and get an appropriate return.

Be very careful with these type of vehicles.

A fair amount of commentary out there currently re Ackmans fund (as opposed to his SPAC) being undervalued.

‘Pershing Square Holdings Very Attractive At 28.5% Discount To Understated NAV’

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390799-pershing-square-holdings-attractive-28_5-discount-to-understated-nav

Jim2007

AmberGold wrote: »

A fair amount of commentary out there currently re Ackmans fund (as opposed to his SPAC) being undervalued.

‘Pershing Square Holdings Very Attractive At 28.5% Discount To Understated NAV’

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390799-pershing-square-holdings-attractive-28_5-discount-to-understated-nav

That does not mean it is undervalued, you need to examine the NAV itself.

RIGOLO

One More Toy wrote: »

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

PSH is Pershing Square Holdings - Ackmans main fund vehicle
PSTH is the SPAC blank cheque - one Im loading up on
PSTH-WT are warrants for the spac (there may be some trading restrictions on when you can sell these post a merger, open to correction)

Ackmans has had success with SPACs in the past his Justice Holding did a similar deal in 2012 with Burger King to form QSR and thats done consistently well for PSH since.

And yes Ackmans PSH is undervalued by any metric you want to take.
Heres just one ... FTSE 100 companies are trading at 1.5 times book value on average , whilst PSH is trading at a 20-30% discount. Thats undervalued!
but
Plenty companies are undervalued , doesnt mean they get the love, plenty companies are overvalued making millions billions for investors. The games rigged you just need to figure out if its worth holding and them eventually getting a justifiable re-rate on the sp.

Chinese EV companies will be releasing November delivery numbers this week, expecting some good figures for NIO, LI and XPENG in that order .. if one delivers then the others will follow, if all 3 beat expectatiosn we have another major legup

And just like that bitcoin back above 18k .

risk off is the motto for the end of 2020.

One More Toy

RIGOLO wrote: »

PSH is Pershing Square Holdings - Ackmans main fund vehicle
PSTH is the SPAC blank cheque - one Im loading up on
PSTH-WT are warrants for the spac (there may be some trading restrictions on when you can sell these post a merger, open to correction)

Ackmans has had success with SPACs in the past his Justice Holding did a similar deal in 2012 with Burger King to form QSR and thats done consistently well for PSH since.

And yes Ackmans PSH is undervalued by any metric you want to take.
Heres just one ... FTSE 100 companies are trading at 1.5 times book value on average , whilst PSH is trading at a 20-30% discount. Thats undervalued!
but
Plenty companies are undervalued , doesnt mean they get the love, plenty companies are overvalued making millions billions for investors. The games rigged you just need to figure out if its worth holding and them eventually getting a justifiable re-rate on the sp.

Chinese EV companies will be releasing November delivery numbers this week, expecting some good figures for NIO, LI and XPENG in that order .. if one delivers then the others will follow, if all 3 beat expectatiosn we have another major legup

And just like that bitcoin back above 18k .

risk off is the motto for the end of 2020.

I've invested in perishing the past couple of years (mostly after watching the documentary about herbakife) I'm up 93%

I believe the SPAC is called tontine (https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/bill-ackman-spac-psth-pershing-tontine-targets-buy-blank-check-2020-10-1029665772)

I may join in on it for the ride. Thank you for your commentary as always

RIGOLO

Jim2007 wrote: »

First of all is it actually under valued or just his opinion? Remember he has something to sell. blah blah blah

One More Toy wrote: »

I've invested in perishing the past couple of years (mostly after watching the documentary about herbakife) I'm up 93%

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

One More Toy

RIGOLO wrote: »

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

In fairness I've only made my opinion available on one stock - Draftkings. And even then its a long term hold

I believe in Bill Ackman and want to join in on the SPAC ride for the first time

Treppen

One More Toy wrote: »

In fairness I've only made my opinion available on one stock - Draftkings. And even then its a long term hold

I believe in Bill Ackman and want to join in on the SPAC ride for the first time

We'll for a guy who took on the ''pyramid scheme" allegedly ... Of Herbalife. I'm in just four that. Even though he lost.

Betting On Zero is a good documentary I saw n Ackman's short attempt. Might be on Netflix or Prime or whatever.

Treppen

One More Toy wrote: »

What's the ticker for this out of curiosity RIGOLO? Will follow it with interest

Psth

AmberGold

Before you all start gushing over Ackmans short on Herbalife and how he was portrayed in Betting on Zero he didn’t exactly come up smelling of roses from the shenanigans that went on at Valeant. Good episode re this on Netflix dirty money.

All said the structure of PSTH is investor friendly, the right target and it should rocket. I sold out of his fund in the summer to pick up LMND but will look for a favourable entry.

Jim2007

RIGOLO wrote: »

I let everyone even noobs work out who is the genuine investor trader (wins some loses some but at least trades) and who is just taking up space on this thread and never makes a stock pick .....
going forward people can make up their own mind who they want to listen too

Any random individual can pick up the paper tomorrow, pick a trending stock and have the exact same odds (50%) of doing as well you do. I don’t see why you see that as something special!

Over the past 30 years I knew I could not make money out of trading, but we could out of traders and we did.

cronos

What entry price are people looking at for psth?

How high's the risks? What are the risks?

jinish

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