Share Picks 2020

Millionaire only not

Mad_maxx wrote: »

How do you mean "gone"?

They said were in global recession on cnn today

all about the mane

JD still holding up brilliantly. Some stock

s3ndnudes

Long time lurker very infrequent poster. Been buying very heavy last two weeks. Went from a small portion of my net worth in shares/funds/ETF's to quite a sizable portion. Had been sitting on quite a large portion of cash and wanted to put it to work. Think the number of funds positions I have is definitely excessive! Given the overlap between them I understand i'm not diversifying all that much between them (Attempted) focus has been on Wide moat companies (some not all), in good industries with longer term growth and tail winds over the medium/ long term.

Positions opened over last few days :pac::pac: :

IRES (today after it sold off)
Delta
United Airlines
SouthWest Airlines
Ryanair
Ab Inbev
Disney
Airbus
Boeing
Tencent
Alibaba
Carnival Corp, Royal Caribean (small positions i'm ok with losing everything on!)


Funds:
Vanguard All World, High dividend, Developed Europe, S&P 500. Ishares- Emerging markets, emerging markets dividends.

Shedite27

s3ndnudes wrote: »

Long time lurker very infrequent poster. Been buying very heavy last two weeks. Went from a small portion of my net worth in shares/funds/ETF's to quite a sizable portion. Had been sitting on quite a large portion of cash and wanted to put it to work. Think the number of funds positions I have is definitely excessive! Given the overlap between them I understand i'm not diversifying all that much between them (Attempted) focus has been on Wide moat companies (some not all), in good industries with longer term growth and tail winds over the medium/ long term.

Positions opened over last few days :pac::pac: :

IRES (today after it sold off)
Delta
United Airlines
SouthWest Airlines
Ryanair
Ab Inbev
Disney
Airbus
Boeing
Tencent
Alibaba
Carnival Corp, Royal Caribean (small positions i'm ok with losing everything on!)


Funds:
Vanguard All World, High dividend, Developed Europe, S&P 500. Ishares- Emerging markets, emerging markets dividends.

You've put everything in travel at a time when travel is banned

Fol20

Shedite27 wrote: »

You've put everything in travel at a time when travel is banned

Should be a one where be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful?

Coil Kilcrea

Fol20 wrote: »

Should be a one where be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful?

No, should be one not to put all your eggs in one basket.

robman60

Shedite27 wrote: »

You've put everything in travel at a time when travel is banned

Tend to agree with this. If you've just opened small positions in each of them then fine, with the majority in the ETFs, but still. I think the airlines in particular have further to fall as travel will be down hugely for the year now. Summer plans are made around now and you'd be a brave soul to book anything now. I will consider buying some Ryanair and I already own a few carnival stocks, but with the whole market down I think it's ETF time.

alanceltic

Is anyone brave enough to call the bottom? I read an interesting piece that the current market disruption (and COVID is a disrputer like no other) has eliminated any competitive advantage that any institutional investor would have over a retail investor. We are in new territory and nobody (or very few) has a factual or inside view on any industry or company.

The market is extremely efficient at factoring in known information. An obvious sector is tech due to the migration to home working but when you look at the pricing on the obvious companies they were insulated from the extreme drops because of this very fact. In my own opinion there is value to be had by investing in strong management teams who have a solid track record.

Disrupter disrupter disrupter, the companies that win out will be those that adapt to the market situation with speed and agility. The one company that screams good management to me is Ryanair. Compounding this though process is the very fact that we are going to see a heightened level of consolidation. Darwins theory of natural selection in all is glory on a commercial level. Cant believe we would see this share price so low. I never invested in Ryanair because i was put off by the P/E but it sure looks attractive, anyone else in agreement that it has a little further to fall?

s3ndnudes

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

No, should be one not to put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm not sure why you've assumed that "i've put everything in travel at a time when travel is banned". Why would you assume that when I've not give any indication of my percentage allocation to these stocks? Travel related stocks make up less than 10% of the portfolio. If they fall further, great! I have some cash lying around i'm happy to deploy :pac: ETFs make up the majority of the portfolio.

Things I should also mention:
I'm long and plan to hold for at least 10 years on these.
I would say i'm about 60% in on the market and have another 40% to allocate, if opportunities come up and the market falls further. If the market doesn't fall further, or valuations get stretched again over the coming months, I will deploy in other business ventures!

Some other positions opened not mentioned:
Pfizer
Abbvie
Alphabet
Biogen
Microsoft


Welcome your feedback all the same.

Coil Kilcrea

s3ndnudes wrote: »

I'm not sure why you've assumed that "i've put everything in travel at a time when travel is banned". Why would you assume that when I've not give any indication of my percentage allocation to these stocks? Travel related stocks make up less than 10% of the portfolio.

Some other positions opened not mentioned:
Pfizer
Abbvie
Alphabet
Biogen
Microsoft


Welcome your feedback all the same.

If you had stated the low % overall of travel stocks within your portfolio and the additional positions opened, the note of caution would have been very different.

That said, my original comment still holds true in terms of over exposure to travel related stocks. Your money, your choice.

Shedite27

On the airlines issue, sales and profits are gone be down massively for a few years. For every person who will be dying to get away when this ends, there’ll be more who can’t afford to.

The one plus is that if Ryanair have the resources to do so they could make a great oil deal right now.

I don’t think airlines are too big to fail tho, Flybe gone already, Austrian shut down, there’ll definitely be more to go i the next year, probably one of Delta/AA/United. Same for the cruise companies.

Companies like Disney, Apple, JNJ will be around next Paddy’s day, wouldn’t bank on any particular airline

Static M.e.

s3ndnudes wrote: »

Funds:
Vanguard All World, High dividend, Developed Europe, S&P 500. Ishares- Emerging markets, emerging markets dividends.

Hi S3ndnudes,

Can you tell me what those fund tickers are in particular the Vanguard one? I'm far more interested in EFTs has I really dont have the skill for stock picking.

Thank you.

alchemist33

Shedite27 wrote: »

On the airlines issue, sales and profits are gone be down massively for a few years. For every person who will be dying to get away when this ends, there’ll be more who can’t afford to.

The one plus is that if Ryanair have the resources to do so they could make a great oil deal right now.

I don’t think airlines are too big to fail tho, Flybe gone already, Austrian shut down, there’ll definitely be more to go i the next year, probably one of Delta/AA/United. Same for the cruise companies.

Companies like Disney, Apple, JNJ will be around next Paddy’s day, wouldn’t bank on any particular airline

I spoke to my brother today, who's a pilot, and he bought into Easyjet and IAG this week.
He didn't say this, but I'd be wary of the American airlines. I think COVID is going to hit hard there.

sk8board

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Goldman Sachs have gone on global recession !

As if we didn’t really know there was!

Boi look like there gone ! 1.8

You need to use more exclamation marks.

Re AIB, it’s not that long ago that people were giving out that the gov didn’t sell when they dropped all the way to €3.

Safe to say that Bank shares are the least of the next governments worries

Millionaire only not

sk8board wrote: »

You need to use more exclamation marks.

Re AIB, it’s not that long ago that people were giving out that the gov didn’t sell when they dropped all the way to €3.

Safe to say that Bank shares are the least of the next governments worries

Are they not full stops !

adam88

robman60 wrote: »

Tend to agree with this. If you've just opened small positions in each of them then fine, with the majority in the ETFs, but still. I think the airlines in particular have further to fall as travel will be down hugely for the year now. Summer plans are made around now and you'd be a brave soul to book anything now. I will consider buying some Ryanair and I already own a few carnival stocks, but with the whole market down I think it's ETF time.

Can you briefly explain your sentence. ETF, what exactly is that. Like a shopping basket with a bunch of share in it grouped???

New to this game so my apologies.

Also where do you buy these ETF? Degiro?

s3ndnudes

Static M.e. wrote: »

Hi S3ndnudes,

Can you tell me what those fund tickers are in particular the Vanguard one? I'm far more interested in EFTs has I really dont have the skill for stock picking.

Thank you.

Sure. Included a couple of ETFS below I like. If you put the Symbol/ISIN below into degiro you will find them. Importantly, though, the below aren't necessarily the best ETFs. You should do your own research. See what areas of the market you want exposure to, in the context of your appetite for risk, desire for growth/income and how long your willing to put the money away for.

I'm sure there are other investors on here who have different ETFs they might recommend to you that might be better options than the below. I include the below purely to give you an idea of what some other investors are looking at. A simple google of these ETFs and you'll find the relevant page on the Provider's website (i.e Vanguard, ishares etc) that will have lots of information.


Product Symbol/ISIN
ISHARES EMIM IE00BKM4GZ66
ISHARES FTSE 100 IE0005042456
ISHSV-EM DIVID.U.ETF DLD IE00B652H904
VANGUARD FTSE AW IE00B3RBWM25
VANGUARD FTSE EUR IE00B945VV12
VANGUARD FTSE HDY IE00B8GKDB10
VANGUARD S&P500 IE00B3XXRP09
MSCI World Tech IE00BYTRRD19

MightyMandarin

robman60 wrote: »

I think it's ETF time.

I think it's hold your horses and wait for the market to truly go ape**** time. The virus hasn't even peaked in Italy yet and the US is going to get battered in the next month. There's a lot of gains to be un-done from this last bull run yet.

bilbot79

alanceltic wrote: »

Is anyone brave enough to call the bottom? I read an interesting piece that the current market disruption (and COVID is a disrputer like no other) has eliminated any competitive advantage that any institutional investor would have over a retail investor. We are in new territory and nobody (or very few) has a factual or inside view on any industry or company.

The market is extremely efficient at factoring in known information. An obvious sector is tech due to the migration to home working but when you look at the pricing on the obvious companies they were insulated from the extreme drops because of this very fact. In my own opinion there is value to be had by investing in strong management teams who have a solid track record.

Disrupter disrupter disrupter, the companies that win out will be those that adapt to the market situation with speed and agility. The one company that screams good management to me is Ryanair. Compounding this though process is the very fact that we are going to see a heightened level of consolidation. Darwins theory of natural selection in all is glory on a commercial level. Cant believe we would see this share price so low. I never invested in Ryanair because i was put off by the P/E but it sure looks attractive, anyone else in agreement that it has a little further to fall?

I think we've hit the bottom. I don't know s*** but that's what I think.

I'm not worried for the travel stocks I've bought this week in American,united, royal Caribbean, NCL. The US will give them aid. I'm gonna buy some more tomorrow. Maybe Boeing

all about the mane

bilbot79 wrote: »

I think we've hit the bottom. I don't know s*** but that's what I think.

I'm not worried for the travel stocks I've bought this week in American,united, royal Caribbean, NCL. The US will give them aid. I'm gonna buy some more tomorrow. Maybe Boeing

I'm normally very bullish but just can't pull the trigger yet...

voluntary

A lot of people think we've hit the bottom. Hence the mini bull market today. Realistically I'll just quote part of Leo's speech today:

"This is the calm before the storm and the storm will come"

bilbot79

voluntary wrote: »

A lot of people think we've hit the bottom. Hence the mini bull market today. Realistically I'll just quote part of Leo's speech today:

"This is the calm before the storm and the storm will come"

Don't you think the stock market has priced in most of the damage?

Coil Kilcrea

bilbot79 wrote: »

Don't you think the stock market has priced in most of the damage?

Hard to price in what they don't know. Government bail outs and strong fiscal intervention will help find a floor but the catalyst, the Oil war, needs to be resolved.

voluntary

Nope, at least not the US tech stock (NASDAQ).

voluntary

bilbot79 wrote: »

Don't you think the stock market has priced in most of the damage?

Does this really look like the worst pandemic in this generation has been priced already:



I think this is a tip of the iceberg.

Rainmann

These are the stocks I am closely monitoring. I am trying to stick to good companies, in my cases strong brand names with good balance sheets. Companies that should bounce back once a lot of the uncertainty is behind us. Any thoughts?

Ryanair
Boeing
Zoom
Salesforce
Facebook
Microsoft
Visa
Coca Cola
BP
Barrick (Gold)

cnocbui

bilbot79 wrote: »

Don't you think the stock market has priced in most of the damage?

I don't. Wait until unemployment hits 18% and global GDP numbers show a 20-30% tanking.

Mad_maxx

adam88 wrote: »

Can you briefly explain your sentence. ETF, what exactly is that. Like a shopping basket with a bunch of share in it grouped???

New to this game so my apologies.

Also where do you buy these ETF? Degiro?

Don't buy sectoral ETF, s, too lightly traded

Was OK when you could buy American etfs

Wombatman

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't. Wait until unemployment hits 18% and global GDP numbers show a 20-30% tanking.

Totally agree. Loan defaults will go through the roof again in US.

Not touching anything for two months. Not worth the stress.

Mad_maxx

voluntary wrote: »

A lot of people think we've hit the bottom. Hence the mini bull market today. Realistically I'll just quote part of Leo's speech today:

"This is the calm before the storm and the storm will come"

Markets think ahead and reprice for worst case scenarios, this is something completely different however and they don't know all that much bar spending will collapse, the big question is for how long