Share Picks 2020

Thargor

Have a read of the Impacts on Aviation thread over in the Aviation forum before you go buying into airlines right now, this is completely unprecedented, way worse than 9/11 or 2008. Big names are going to cease to exist before this is over.

Mad_maxx

I bought one $33 call at the open yesterday in Morgan Stanley which expire this Friday when the stock touched near $30, within two hours it had trebled due to the large rise in financial stocks which saw the underlying stock cross $35 briefly, looking at futures however, all has been given back so my call option is probably toast

Was only a $90 bet and with a gain of circa $200 on offer but the lesson is, if trading right now, every rally should be sold

Doesn't apply for long term holdings but if i owned the likes of airlines, I wouldn't be leaving big day gains open

Kilboor

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I bought one $33 call at the open yesterday in Morgan Stanley which expire this Friday when the stock touched near $30, within two hours it had trebled due to the large rise in financial stocks which saw the underlying stock cross $35 briefly, looking at futures however, all has been given back so my call option is probably toast

Was only a $90 bet and with a gain of circa $200 on offer but the lesson is, if trading right now, every rally should be sold

Doesn't apply for long term holdings but if i owned the likes of airlines, I wouldn't be leaving big day gains open

What platform are you using for options?

imonboard

I decided to make a list of the big companies mentioned on this thread. I am going to use the 2008 price as a guide to how low a share can go. I might invest in 15 to 20 of them in about 6 months when I have money. If anyone wants to rank them or say yes or no beside them please feel free.

Advise is welcome







Abbvie
adidas, 2008 24 Today 169 high 317
aim imunotech
airbus,
Alibaba
Allianz,
Alphabet
Anheuser-Busch
Banco Santander
GVC HOLDINGS
Biogen
carnival corp,
Coca Cola,
Disney
Exxon,
facebook,
Ford
Ge
Goldman
glanbia
Google,
hsbc,

IAG

Johnson and Johnson,
JPM
Kerry
Mastercard
Mcdonalds

Microsoft
Nuformix,
Nextera Energy,
Nike,
Panasonic,
petrel resources,
Pfizer


royal carribean
Saas
SAP
Shopify,
Siemens
smurfit kappa,
sony
shell,
Starbucks
Tesla
Total
twitter,
uber
Unilever
Visa,
workday
crh

Mad_maxx

Kilboor wrote: »

What platform are you using for options?

Saxo

I rarely trade options but they offer opportunities during serious volatility, my apple December 2020 put i bought when the stock was last above $200, has risen five fold

Should have bought six of them

Mad_maxx

Crh getting absolutely trashed, i dumped @23 a week ago as a U. S recession was always going to hit them hard

voluntary

I think Americans are only waking up to the shock reality. From denial to anger. 1700 new cases in USA yesterday after a rapid increase over a day or two.
There is a large spike in Israel too. Israel and silicon valley are the 2 best buddies.

voluntary

imonboard wrote: »

I decided to make a list of the big companies mentioned on this thread. I am going to use the 2008 price as a guide to how low a share can go. I might invest in 15 to 20 of them in about 6 months when I have money. If anyone wants to rank them or say yes or no beside them please feel free.

Advise is welcome







Abbvie
adidas, 2008 24 Today 169 high 317
aim imunotech
airbus,
Alibaba
Allianz,
Alphabet
Anheuser-Busch
Banco Santander
GVC HOLDINGS
Biogen
carnival corp,
Coca Cola,
Disney
Exxon,
facebook,
Ford
Ge
Goldman
glanbia
Google,
hsbc,

IAG

Johnson and Johnson,
JPM
Kerry
Mastercard
Mcdonalds

Microsoft
Nuformix,
Nextera Energy,
Nike,
Panasonic,
petrel resources,
Pfizer


royal carribean
Saas
SAP
Shopify,
Siemens
smurfit kappa,
sony
shell,
Starbucks
Tesla
Total
twitter,
uber
Unilever
Visa,
workday
crh

It would be very difficult for you to monitor 15 companies in my opinion. Pick 5/6 or buy units in some investment funds which do the monitoring and selection actively for you.

You could do both. Pick 5/6 stocks you like most and put the rest of money in some aggressive investment fund(s).

Shedite27

voluntary wrote: »

Does this really look like the worst pandemic in this generation has been priced already:

I think this is a tip of the iceberg.

Head says yes, heart says possibly close.

2 questions I keep asking myself:
- who is going to sell in the next month that hasn’t sold already?
- are the companies I’m buying likely to be here in 5/10 years and valued more than they are today. Do you really think Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, J&J are going to be less in 5 years than current price?

imonboard

voluntary wrote: »

It would be very difficult for you to monitor 15 companies in my opinion. Pick 5/6 or buy units in some investment funds which do the monitoring and selection actively for you.

You could do both. Pick 5/6 stocks you like most and put the rest of money in some aggressive investment fund(s).

I was more thinking along the lines of buying the established companies that give dividends and that will be around, that I don't have to monitor( much).

Shedite27

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Crh getting absolutely trashed, i dumped @23 a week ago

Halved its value since 13th Feb

voluntary

Shedite27 wrote: »

Head says yes, heart says possibly close.

2 questions I keep asking myself:
- who is going to sell in the next month that hasn’t sold already?
- are the companies I’m buying likely to be here in 5/10 years and valued more than they are today. Do you really think Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, J&J are going to be less in 5 years than current price?

It's impossible to tell, but looking at the history, the 2008 financial crisis started 15 September 2008 and the markets kept falling until mid-March 2009. This was a whole 6 months of markets going down, even though the steepest slide took ~30 days then followed by few corrective positive movements.

2008/2009 chart:

Shedite27

voluntary wrote: »

It's impossible to tell, but looking at the history, the 2008 financial crisis started 15 September 2008 and the markets kept falling until mid-March 2009. This was a whole 6 months of markets going down, even though the steepest slide took ~30 days then followed by few corrective positive movements.

2008/2009 chart:

i think everything in the world happens so instantly these days, it’s only natural that a fall would happen much faster these days. A lot of those sales recently were guys like myself who had apps in their pocket to do that. It was a lot more effort and slower in 2008.

Definitely impossible to say but I’ve a hunch the people who held in 2018 are likely to hold now also, hence the lies of 2018 that were currently approaching may be an indication of a floor.

I realise this post could look very stupid ina month

thomas 123

Shedite27 wrote: »

i think everything in the world happens so instantly these days, it’s only natural that a fall would happen much faster these days. A lot of those sales recently were guys like myself who had apps in their pocket to do that. It was a lot more effort and slower in 2008.

Definitely impossible to say but I’ve a hunch the people who held in 2018 are likely to hold now also, hence the lies of 2018 that were currently approaching may be an indication of a floor.

I realise this post could look very stupid ina month

So tough to call, I luckily sold my tech stakes the day before they fell massively first time.

No idea what to do with the cash, it’s for my mortgage long term, could make good money if I reinvest wisely now though.

borderfox11

s&p is down 30% currently, this seems to be a worse situation versus 2008 where it was down about 60%.....

Mad_maxx

Shedite27 wrote: »

Halved its value since 13th Feb

12 is the 2011 low, it's currently below 2008 levels, Europe saw it's nadir in 2011 - 2012

Mad_maxx

borderfox11 wrote: »

s&p is down 30% currently, this seems to be a worse situation versus 2008 where it was down about 60%.....

Yes but that 50% plus drop was spread out over the guts of a year, even the September through October 2008 period was less violent than this

voluntary

Shedite27 wrote: »

i think everything in the world happens so instantly these days, it’s only natural that a fall would happen much faster these days. A lot of those sales recently were guys like myself who had apps in their pocket to do that. It was a lot more effort and slower in 2008.

Definitely impossible to say but I’ve a hunch the people who held in 2018 are likely to hold now also, hence the lies of 2018 that were currently approaching may be an indication of a floor.

I realise this post could look very stupid ina month

It's not the tech, it's peoples' minds. 5 stages of grief and stuff like that. It takes a while to accept a new reality. Many are still in the mindset that this slump is only temporary and they will recover in few years by investing now. The true is, there will be bankruptcies, there will be permanent losses. Many today's investments will never recover or will take much more time to recover then people anticipate.

Mad_maxx

voluntary wrote: »

It's impossible to tell, but looking at the history, the 2008 financial crisis started 15 September 2008 and the markets kept falling until mid-March 2009. This was a whole 6 months of markets going down, even though the steepest slide took ~30 days then followed by few corrective positive movements.

2008/2009 chart:

The market top was in November 2007, it was in a bear market by late spring 2008 but things kicked off in September, bottom was March 2009

Point being, peak to trough was almost eighteen months,it fell in stages, at the current pace today, we would be replicating the 1929 crash if it stayed like this for a few years

I don't believe that's remotely likely but this is much more swift than 2008 ( financials aside) even the bottom isn't that far off

antimatterx

Pre market looks dog rough.

Delta to fall into the 20s by the look of it

voluntary

All US Futures have halt trading after hitting 'limit down'.

Underground

Hear people in work saying what's coming could be worse than 2007/2008.

I don't see it personally, but then nobody but the super geniuses can ever accurately call it. As Mark Twain says "history does not repeat, but it rhymes".

The market is not being propped up by cheap credit, people have not borrowed beyond their means, and one lesson that may arise from this for businesses is the importance of diversifying their supply lines with less reliance on China.

cnocbui

imonboard wrote: »

I was more thinking along the lines of buying the established companies that give dividends and that will be around, that I don't have to monitor( much).

I have had it with stock picking and day trading. I liquidated all my holdings and went all in with a dividend focused ETF. Best thing I ever did.

Kamu

cnocbui wrote: »

I have had it with stock picking and day trading. I liquidated all my holdings and went all in with a dividend focused ETF. Best thing I ever did.

Ticker?

cnocbui

Underground wrote: »

Hear people in work saying what's coming could be worse than 2007/2008.

I don't see it personally, but then nobody but the super geniuses can ever accurately call it. As Mark Twain says "history does not repeat, but it rhymes".

The market is not being propped up by cheap credit, people have not borrowed beyond their means, and one lesson that may arise from this for businesses is the importance of diversifying their supply lines with less reliance on China.

Well, that's the complete opposite of what I would have said. The current global debt burden is more than double that which triggered the 2007/8 GFC. Unfortunately we might be looking at the beginnings of 1930's style depression, rather than a repeat of 2007/8. Search on 'zombie companies trillion' and see what turns up.

shanmo

Can I ask what company you use for this investing please?

cnocbui

Kamu wrote: »

Ticker?

(ASX) VHY Vanguard High Yield. Over 5% dividend PA, paid quarterly.

antimatterx

cnocbui wrote: »

I have had it with stock picking and day trading. I liquidated all my holdings and went all in with a dividend focused ETF. Best thing I ever did.

Deemed disposable though?

Kamu

cnocbui wrote: »

(ASX) VHY Vanguard High Yield. Over 5% dividend PA, paid quarterly.

Thank you, I'll have to look into that. Looking to diversify my etf standing.

Nemeses2050

Mad_maxx wrote: »

12 is the 2011 low, it's currently below 2008 levels, Europe saw it's nadir in 2011 - 2012

CRH looks very tempting, but as you said in 2011 and 2002 €11.50 was the lowest it went. so there's a bit more to go.

IRES and HIB Reit both down nearly 50% from their peaks a month ago.