Share Picks 2020

littlemac1980

Zoom gone through the roof yesterday and today.

dashcamdanny

Cruise companies like Norwegian and Royal are in the green today. Has there been some sort of announcement?

ELM327

Bought ncl shares at 10 and 7 dollars, sold today at 10.40$ and made profit
Great as I wasnt expecting the bounce. NCL is in a horrible position and the most likely to not survive this of the cruise lines

all about the mane

ELM327 wrote: »

Bought ncl shares at 10 and 7 dollars, sold today at 10.40$ and made profit
Great as I wasnt expecting the bounce. NCL is in a horrible position and the most likely to not survive this of the cruise lines

Why NCL not to survive?

ELM327

Look at their concentration risk, (they are not part of a larger group, they are only in cruise industry, they are already drawing down credit, have put staff on short weeks etc, no sign of further cruises this quarter or q2 either).

Compare that to MSC, RCC etc and they are much more diversified.
I bought them initially at 10 to get the on board credit (you get 200$ onboard if you have 100 shares) but bought in further as they dropped, expecting that they would soon go up a little bit.

They are not a good long term investment, IMO, a risky punt perhaps - if you're prepared for a full loss potentially - but not a sound low risk approach.

Knex*

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Just when things couldn’t get any worse with Boi new low today !

They must be ground to a halt at the moment too, knowing just how horrendous their IT infrastructure is.

The extent of their remote working capabilities is probably that of their mobile phone.

Skelet0n

OPK are running drive through testing in New Jersey. Having a press conference about it in 30 minutes. Decent hold into next week, I think.

weemcd

UK have just announced closures of basically every cafe, bar, restaurant, gym, leisure centre. Massive knock on, I'd imagine catering suppliers etc taking a massive hit. While supermarkets and off licences to see another huge surge, above what they've had already.

Rainmann

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Zoom gone through the roof yesterday and today.

I use Zoom for work and it's gotten a lot slower the last few days, I'd say they are experiencing a huge surge in usage.

tnegun

Zoom has been amazing was on a company call with almost 500 participants earlier and it was flawless!! Any remote working tech stocks will be a good bet any other suggestions?

weemcd

tnegun wrote: »

Zoom has been amazing was on a company call with almost 500 participants earlier and it was flawless!! Any remote working tech stocks will be a good bet any other suggestions?

Lot of people using/tipping VMware

Mach 3

bcklschaps wrote: »

Interesting. Can you elaborate?

My limited understanding is that funds have to invest their money.... regardless of market volitility. Soo are you saying that they all do this on a particular day every quarter? and this buying will raise indices (temporarily)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour

Triple witching hour is the last hour of the stock market trading session (3:00-4:00 P.M., New York City local Time) on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. Those days are the expiration of three kinds of securities:

Stock market index futures;
Stock market index options;
Stock options.
The simultaneous expirations generally increases the trading volume of options, futures and the underlying stocks, and occasionally increases volatility of prices of related securities.

On those same days single-stock futures also expire, so that the final hour is sometimes referred to as the quadruple witching hour.[1]

Four days a year is all you need if your good enough.

Bob Harris

Picked up a few coca-cola in the end of day sell off. Down over 10% at one stage. Crazy.

Wombatman

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Markets rejoicing the stimulus's today:) ... yep I would definitely be not comfortable at all of holding positions over the weekend in the current climate...May be time to go short this morning as there will be selling pressure in the evening.

bought some delta @21.15 and sold at 22.25 before close...now the futures pointing to 24.90:rolleyes:

Not feeling so bad now are we?

BikeRacer

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Zoom gone through the roof yesterday and today.

It would be up more if people bought the right stock.
OTC:ZOOM was up 72% at one stage today because people confused it with NASDAQ:ZM...

Thargor

That finish does not bode well for Monday.

littlemac1980

BikeRacer wrote: »

It would be up more if people bought the right stock.
OTC:ZOOM was up 72% at one stage today because people confused it with NASDAQ:ZM...

Oops, I did that! Bought Wednesday and sold this morning and afternoon. Up 200% on a handful of shares. Just opened my first trading account. Something to do if I’m locked indoors. Dumb luck! Lol

Nemeses2050

Wombatman wrote: »

Not feeling so bad now are we?

nope , think monday will be another blood-bath

voluntary

Citigroup tells clients: DO NOT CATCH FALLING KNIFES.

"Markets may already be discounting a 30% EPS drop, but not the 58% collapse seen in the financial crisis. It typically takes a year of EPS recession, and associated bear market, for equities to fall this much. It's the same for the VIX and credit spreads."

Despite the substantial declines, Citi's analysts advised against buying the dip until indicators signaling a turn emerge.

"One of the investor quotes in recent weeks is: 'this isn't over until U.S. cases peak'"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/citi-says-stock-prices-only-see-30-earnings-slide-more-to-come

City also sees Brent Oil price to average to $17 or lower in the second quarter.

hottipper

Rolling out the big guns in the US now - this could get messy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xliuo6n3DhU&feature=youtu.be

i guess for euro stocks we need to see italy / france / spain flattening the curve and getting those numbers down then it could be a good time to pounce, the US is a week or 2 behind so not overrun yet.

cnocbui

hottipper wrote: »

Rolling out the big guns in the US now - this could get messy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xliuo6n3DhU&feature=youtu.be

i guess for euro stocks we need to see italy / france / spain flattening the curve and getting those numbers down then it could be a good time to pounce, the US is a week or 2 behind so not overrun yet.

Americans have never met a problem they didn't think they could solve with guns and bullets. It's the overriding theme in probably half of all Hollywood movies. Even FEMA, their supposed disaster relief organisation, is armed to the teeth wirh AR-15s. 'I think we have another survivor, Jim. ack ack ack ack. Not any more, Frank'

More pertinent than the tanks, I think, would be the jump in jobless claims to 281,000 - highest in 2 years, likely to be over a million by this time next week and then the optimistic prediction by Bank of America that 3.5 million jobs will be lost and GDP fall in the 2nd quarter by -12%. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-data-unambiguously-bad-will-get-much-worse-morning-brief-102141346.html

Wombatman

Bailout begins.

UK government draws up plans to buy into airlines..... banks next.

https://www.ft.com/content/1a52f686-6b00-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

neris

That's the US shale producers rightly f***ed so

voluntary wrote: »

Citigroup tells clients: DO NOT CATCH FALLING KNIFES.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/citi-says-stock-prices-only-see-30-earnings-slide-more-to-come

City also sees Brent Oil price to average to $17 or lower in the second quarter.

riddles

Is it simplistic to assume the green on the board most of Friday is related to people considering share price as current price V record, instead of calculating what is a new financial reality?

Would it be right to assume Shale debt and also motor loan debt, credit card debt and mortgage debt will now all bubble to the surface.


https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/will-fracking-industry-debts-set-off-financial-tremors/

https://www.theregreview.org/2020/01/23/alford-subprime-auto-loans-driving-next-financial-crisis/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/outstanding-auto-loan-balances-just-hit-a-new-record-and-delinquencies-are-on-the-rise-should-you-be-concerned-2020-02-21

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/22/subprime-credit-card-delinquencies-spike-to-record-high-past-financial-crisis-peak-as-other-consumers-relish-the-good-times-why/

cnocbui

neris wrote: »

That's the US shale producers rightly f***ed so

...and the people who bought the debt powered shale producers bonds.

The Phantom Jipper

Does anyone pay for the membership sections of the Motley Fool site? I'm thinking of subscribing with all this downtime I'm likely to have on my hands, and was wondering if it was worth it?

heffo500

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Does anyone pay for the membership sections of the Motley Fool site? I'm thinking of subscribing with all this downtown I'm likely to have on my hands, and was wondering if it was worth it?

I listen to their podcast on Spotify, it's released every Friday. Well worth a listen to you.

timetogo1

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Does anyone pay for the membership sections of the Motley Fool site? I'm thinking of subscribing with all this downtime I'm likely to have on my hands, and was wondering if it was worth it?

I have it (the Stock Advisor version). Wouldn't bother with it again.
I was bored a few weeks ago (before the **** hit the fan) and went through all of their recommendations for 3 years. If you bought the same amount for each recommendation and bought the same amount in the s&p500. The S&p would have beaten them.

They have some spectacular winners alright every so often but it averages out. I must redo the exercise again now.

I listen to the podcasts too. They're mostly good.

RedRochey

timetogo1 wrote: »

I have it (the Stock Advisor version). Wouldn't bother with it again.
I was bored a few weeks ago (before the **** hit the fan) and went through all of their recommendations for 3 years. If you bought the same amount for each recommendation and bought the same amount in the s&p500. The S&p would have beaten them.

They have some spectacular winners alright every so often but it averages out. I must redo the exercise again now.

I listen to the podcasts too. They're mostly good.

I've seen an ad for their Stock Advisor and it says that their "All In" stock recommendations have an average return of 773%

Do they give "All In" recommendations or is this just cherry picking their best results?

I find the website useful sometimes just for different opinions but then there's times when they would have two articles on the same stock which contradict each other, wouldn't fully trust them

Shedite27

How much is Motley Fool?

I pay for MyWallSt - €80 for the year, a lot of the good stuff is free on it anyway, the Learn section was great for getting started. I've since found out that they've a premium version for €800 which seems a bit cheeky, seems to suggest they keep the best picks for themselves. I like their analysis tho, well thought out picks.

FWIW, Motley Fool had an "All in" recommendation this week, and without giving away the name, they gave quotes from an interview. I googled the quotes and turns out the pick is The Trade Desk.

The stock bumped 20% in the 2 days since they gave it, I'm suspicious that's just a load of their members picking it up though and will correct itself.