Share Picks 2020

coolshannagh28

cnocbui wrote: »

What countries employ a gold standard? It' a historical quirk. The US ended it almost half a century ago. Current money supply is not gold backed, if that was what you implied, it's value is abased on empty promises and fiction.

There is a strong school of thought that thinks that the problems started when the gold standard was abandoned.

cnocbui

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

There is a strong school of thought that thinks that the problems started when the gold standard was abandoned.

There is a strong view that adherence to the gold standard significantly worsened the Great Depression. Personally I think the problems started when greedy people started inventing new and myriad financial instruments to make themselves massively rich. Why would a sane government allow derivatives, junk bonds, credit default swaps, sub prime mortgages, etc?

I do have sympathy with the gold standard and that viewpoint. Fractional reserve banking is trouble waiting to happen. You lend fictitious money to someone, but expect and require them to repay you with real money. Yeah, why not. :rolleyes:

patsy_mccabe

makeorbrake wrote: »

You're making my point for me. You've totally misunderstood. Firstly there are many cryptos and whilst some pursue the same aims, those objectives differ considerably. Within the ones that have forked away from Bitcoin, they've failed. This notion that multiple cryptos dilute the potency of bitcoin is a fallacy. All cryptos are not equal. You can create your own tomorrow, sure. If it doesn't bring something tangible to the party then it's unlikely to go anywhere.

2 simple questions for you; what exactly does bitcoin do and what is it's intrinsic value?

coolshannagh28

cnocbui wrote: »

There is a strong view that adherence to the gold standard significantly worsened the Great Depression. Personally I think the problems started when greedy people started inventing new and myriad financial instruments to make themselves massively rich. Why would a sane government allow derivatives, junk bonds, credit default swaps, sub prime mortgages, etc?

I do have sympathy with the gold standard and that viewpoint. Fractional reserve banking is trouble waiting to happen. You lend fictitious money to someone, but expect and require them to repay you with real money. Yeah, why not. :rolleyes:

Yes , the dollar is now backed up by FED and by extension the US economy and if it fails the house of cards will fall , it showed cracks in 2008 but this will severely test its ability to invent ways to remain credible or solvent .

voluntary

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

2 simple questions for you; what exactly does bitcoin do and what is it's intrinsic value?

Maybe the most simplistic explanation would be that blockchains order transactions and value depends on how much demand is for such services.

makeorbrake

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

2 simple questions for you; what exactly does bitcoin do and what is it's intrinsic value?

Bitcoin fulfills the role of hard money.

Its intrinsic value is provided by way of its inherent properties.

- Seizure Resistant
When a bank or state fails, your hard earned savings are likely to take a hair cut. That can’t happen with self custodied bitcoin.

- Censorship Resistant
Nobody can dictate on what/where/when you spend it. It facilitates worldwide permission-less transactions.

- Durability
Despite ongoing attacks on the bitcoin network over 11 years, the decentralised bitcoin network has remained online for the duration. Compare that with bank systems, visa, etc.

- Portability
It's the most portable store of value there is.

- Divisibility
Bitcoin has eight places of decimal - it can be transmitted in tiny amounts. (network fees have proven to be a problem in the past for micro-transactions but the emergence of the Lightning Network will take care of that).

- Pseudo-Anonymous
It's psuedo-anonymous. There are updates waiting in the wings that can make it fully anonymous and fungible.

- Designed-in Scarcity
Above all else, it’s scarce. It has designed in scarcity - and all stakeholders know exactly how that works. That involves a fixed supply of 21 million bitcoin.

If you were to say gold has value as jewelry, industrial use, etc - then why doesn’t its value reflect those uses? It doesn’t trade at production cost level. Other than that, if you're looking for 'backing', bitcoin is the energy standard that Henry Ford proposed a century ago. That powerhouse of a PoW consensus mechanism and security system is fueled by energy. Smart contract platforms can use that secure bitcoin network to safeguard other blockchain networks. Microsoft is building a decentralised digital ID system on top of the bitcoin network.

Here’s the ‘intrinsic value’ of the cotton paper brought to you by the FED/BoE/ECB/BoJ, etc.

Jim2007

makeorbrake wrote: »

Bitcoin fulfills the role of hard money.

Its intrinsic value is provided by way of its inherent properties.

- Seizure Resistant
When a bank or state fails, your hard earned savings are likely to take a hair cut. That can’t happen with self custodied bitcoin.

- Censorship Resistant
Nobody can dictate on what/where/when you spend it. It facilitates worldwide permission-less transactions.

- Durability
Despite ongoing attacks on the bitcoin network over 11 years, the decentralised bitcoin network has remained online. Compare that with bank systems, visa, etc.

- Portability
It's the most portable store of value there is.

- Divisibility
Bitcoin has eight places of decimal - it can be transmitted in tiny amounts. (network fees have proven to be a problem in the past for micro-transactions but the emergence of the Lightning Network will take care of that).

- Pseudo-Anonymous
It's psuedo-anonymous. There are updates waiting in the wings that can make it fully anonymous and fungible.

- Designed-in Scarcity
Above all else, it’s scarce. It has designed in scarcity - and all stakeholders know exactly how that works. That involves a fixed supply of 21 million bitcoin.

If you were to say gold has value as jewelry, industrial use, etc - then why doesn’t its value reflect those uses? It doesn’t trade at production cost level. Other than that, if you're looking for 'backing', bitcoin is the energy standard that Henry Ford proposed a century ago. That powerhouse of a PoW consensus mechanism and security system is fueled by energy.

Here’s the ‘intrinsic value’ of the cotton paper brought to you by the FED/BoE/ECB/BoJ, etc.

At the end of the day it is no better than the tulips... It depends on confidence and we can see from the tulips that can disappear over night.

makeorbrake

Jim2007 wrote: »

At the end of the day it is no better than the tulips... It depends on confidence and we can see from the tulips that can disappear over night.

Damn, I haven't heard the 'tulip' jibe for an age. :cool:

Were/are tulips finite Jim? Because bitcoin is. Other than that, the inherent properties that I listed above and you summarily ignored are attributes that contribute towards hard money. Did tulips have any of those attributes during 'tulipmania'?
Were tulips able to facilitate trust between two or more parties?

As regards confidence, sure - it's a factor when it comes to ANY form of money. However, bear in mind that the move to digital currency is an inevitability. It may take some time to get there but ultimately, it will come to be ubiquitous. In terms of FIAT, can you provide the macro view on how this plays out? Can I tell the government they have no right nor need to tax my earnings this year as clearly, they can just print some more euro instead. You're right about confidence - I lost mine in FIAT a long time ago.

littlevillage

Interesting debate guys regarding Cryptocurrency, but there are dedicated Crypto forums/threads on Boards ......

and this is not one of them.

soo can we get back to the Share Picks?

Shedite27

Bob Harris wrote: »

The S&P had a weak close probably in anticipation of this.

About a half hour before close, Bernie Sanders tweeted that the deal wasn't yet completed and that he had some problem with it. The slide started after that.

Mad_maxx

I see from the quotes that Jim is still doing his thing ( i have him on ignore)

Peculiar that a pro with self proclaimed thirty five years experience is goofing around with us little league kids, I'd have thought that was a litter beneath such an accomplished market veteran

Maybe he's lonely?

Bob Harris

Shedite27 wrote: »

About a half hour before close, Bernie Sanders tweeted that the deal wasn't yet completed and that he had some problem with it. The slide started after that.

So it's not only Trump's tweets that dictate the market.

Shedite27

Bob Harris wrote: »

So it's not only Trump's tweets that dictate the market.

Mad isn't it. I long for the good auld days when prices changed on results and profit warnings, rather than tweets

Nemeses2050

European markets a bit queit today, probably waiting US for directions.

Any EU based solid companies on people's watch lists.

antimatterx

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

European markets a bit queit today, probably waiting US for directions.

Any EU based solid companies on people's watch lists.

Hostelworld! Despite earning warnings and dividend cancelation

cnocbui

Jim2007 wrote: »

At the end of the day it is no better than the tulips... It depends on confidence and we can see from the tulips that can disappear over night.

True. My tulips are up about 450%. Wish I could say the same for my share portfolio, which is currently down 26%, but I don't mind as I'm in for the long haul. I thought about selling when I knew the virus was going to wreak financial carnage, but decided I couldn't stomach the thought handing over 33% to revenue so decided to hold tight. Everything is tulips, actually, even property.

Shedite27

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

European markets a bit queit today, probably waiting US for directions.

Any EU based solid companies on people's watch lists.

Volkswagen is my big one, they've invested €30bn in electric vehicles, I expect them to be to the fore of that in 5/10 years time. They're about 50% below their peak currently.

cnocbui

Shedite27 wrote: »

About a half hour before close, Bernie Sanders tweeted that the deal wasn't yet completed and that he had some problem with it. The slide started after that.

That must have annoyed Trump - seeing someone else affect the market via tweet, rather than himself. It would be an amazing wealth creation opportunity to be in his position and to have associates with overseas trading accounts and fore knowledge of what was going to be tweeted.

Bob Harris

3.28million jobless claims v 1.5m forecast.

cnocbui

Bob Harris wrote: »

3.28million jobless claims v 1.5m forecast.

Be interesting to see today if the market saw that coming. I found the rise in optimism and the markets, over the last few days utterly bizarre. 3.28 million unemployed - woo-hoo a new record, lets pump that sucker another 16%, only blue skies, fair winds and rich plunder ahead, me hearties.

The Phantom Jipper

The FTSE hasn't really reacted to the news breaking. Bouncing around -2% since it was announced.

Nemeses2050

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

The FTSE hasn't really reacted to the news breaking. Bouncing around -2% since it was announced.

Yep, not much reaction from US futures either :eek:

cnocbui

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Yep, not much reaction from US futures either :eek:

The majority of trading is done by bots. Probably no one thought to allow for such numbers in the algorithms so computer says does not compute.

voluntary

Shedite27 wrote: »

Volkswagen is my big one, they've invested €30bn in electric vehicles, I expect them to be to the fore of that in 5/10 years time. They're about 50% below their peak currently.

Halted production and have unions on their backs. Agreed with unions to pay workers 95% of their normal wages during the layoffs. Long can they stand?

I have vw on my watch list, but not at the current price.... At €70 maybe

voluntary

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Yep, not much reaction from US futures either :eek:

Worse the news larger the pump. Speculators are counting on FED to pump even more money into the markets now, as the unemployment increases. This is a short term play though. More money will not fix this particular problem I'm afraid.

Nemeses2050

voluntary wrote: »

Worse the news larger the pump. Speculators are counting on FED to pump even more money into the markets now, as the unemployment increases. This is a short term play though. More money will not fix this particular problem I'm afraid.

Futures Green now :eek:

folks don't get sucked in

bilbot79

Invested 3k the other day now I have 4200. Humming and hawing about whether to stick or twist.

Nemeses2050

bilbot79 wrote: »

Invested 3k the other day now I have 4200. Humming and hawing about whether to stick or twist.

If I was you, would sell half and for the other half have 5-10% Stoploss

all about the mane

bilbot79 wrote: »

Invested 3k the other day now I have 4200. Humming and hawing about whether to stick or twist.

Depends on your plan. Should really have exit strategy decided before entering at all. That reduces the emotion effect once in.

bilbot79

all about the mane wrote: »

Depends on your plan. Should really have exit strategy decided before entering at all. That reduces the emotion effect once in.

I'm kinda new to this tbh. Sold out for a 1200 profit and hoping the market falls a wee bit before going back in.