Share Picks 2020

Jesper

Shedite27 wrote: »

Volkswagen is my big one, they've invested €30bn in electric vehicles, I expect them to be to the fore of that in 5/10 years time. They're about 50% below their peak currently.

Which VW stock do you buy? ETR: VOW3 or VOW:DE?
Since they were only 1/2 way recovered from their 60% Dieselgate drop this drop will bring them back down. I hadn't been looking at car stocks but this is a good shout.

The Phantom Jipper

There was me thinking a 3m+ increase in unemployment would be bad for the markets but seemingly not. I should probably close my DeGiro account before I do any damage to myself because I clearly haven't a notion!

bilbot79

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

There was me thinking a 3m+ increase in unemployment would be bad for the markets but seemingly not. I should probably close my DeGiro account before I do any damage to myself because I clearly haven't a notion!

I know. I cashed out...boohoo

littlemac1980

I’m no expert of course, (just a noob) but I think that it is possible that regardless of the underlying issues with supply chain issues and escalating unemployment, incredibly reduced revenue forecasts across the board etc. that the primary force (but obviously not only force) driving the markets down the past few weeks was the uncertainty and lack of transparency (and inconsistency throughout) around the virus and its potential impact.

I think now the markets are more positive as the impact is more or less obvious and no longer possible to “sugar coat” and in that sense the markets can at least adapt to a future that is no less bleak but at least a bit more certain, I.e. no tourism, transport industry and escalating unemployment - but people trying to get along as best they can in the circumstances. People and Businesses are still spending, but just they are doing it largely from home online. Just my thoughts.

Doesn’t mean I don’t think the Market isn't overvalued just that it is less likely to tank over an impending problem when the scale of the problem can be forecast to some degree (vs the President of the US saying everything is fine/good/dandy when clearly it’s not)

voluntary

Jesper wrote: »

Which VW stock do you buy? ETR: VOW3 or VOW:DE?
Since they were only 1/2 way recovered from their 60% Dieselgate drop this drop will bring them back down. I hadn't been looking at car stocks but this is a good shout.

I believe the electronic Xetra has lower fees than traditional market in Frankfurt (vow3). I only look at Xetra for German stock.

Dots1982

They are asking global government’s decisions to basically fill in for the economic impact of having millions more out of work and businesses unable to trade. I don’t think they can, hence I’m investing in bearish assets.

voluntary

I must admit, I underestimated the power of the herd. Still believe, the crash is imminent.

littlemac1980

AIM up 12% now, maybe another spike on the cards?

cnocbui

I used not to believe in magic, faeries, mans better nature, Hogwarts. Now watching the market, I'm a believer, magic truly does exist, I have been wrong all these years.

I'm off to find me a wand and a book of spells...

littlemac1980

Well they’ve stepped in and taken control of the Zoom situation lol

https://apple.news/Amt_YO4leQaKamqP1mHo8jA

Shedite27

littlemac1980 wrote: »

AIM up 12% now, maybe another spike on the cards?

Aim has been stinking up my portfolio recently. Bought it too late, it's top of my portfolio alphabetically and hate seeing a big red at the top when i start looking through my stocks

portcrap

voluntary wrote: »

I must admit, I underestimated the power of the herd. Still believe, the crash is imminent.

I cannot believe the markets are behaving this irrationally, can anyone explain the reasoning for the optimism to a newbie, please?

makeorbrake

cnocbui wrote: »

I used not to believe in magic, faeries, mans better nature, Hogwarts. Now watching the market, I'm a believer, magic truly does exist, I have been wrong all these years.

I'm off to find me a wand and a book of spells...

Plenty of 'shítcoíns' in the conventional markets :-D

Shedite27

portcrap wrote: »

I cannot believe the markets are behaving this irrationally, can anyone explain the reasoning for the optimism to a newbie, please?

A number of factors for me:

The main risk in buying shares is that the company goes bankrupt. With the amount of money and guarantees Trump is throwing around it looks like that risk is off the table, at least for the big boys.

A lot of people who sold in Feb, made an awful lot in the past year, has a lot of cash burning a hole in their pocket and can now buy back in at far reduced prices. The money they made in the past year will make this feel like house money.

Starbucks have their stores in China open again after 2 months, so people now see that's the length of time it'll take to shut it down, rather than the threat of 6-12 months.

Nike results yesterday showed the big companies with an online presence can get alternative sources of income to bridge the gap, in Nike's case online sales. Companies are adapting

BTW, that's not me thinking we're in the clear, that's me trying to explain what I think buyers are thinking

littlemac1980

Shedite27 wrote: »

Aim has been stinking up my portfolio recently. Bought it too late, it's top of my portfolio alphabetically and hate seeing a big red at the top when i start looking through my stocks

I suggest focusing On purchasing only stocks with the first letter ‘A’ and the second letter in the range A - H, that’s the only logical solution I can think of to overcome your very understandable problem.

Shedite27

littlemac1980 wrote: »

I suggest focusing On purchasing only stocks with the first letter ‘A’ and the second letter in the range A - H, that’s the only logical solution I can think of to overcome your very understandable problem.

I've had Activision on my watchlist forever, maybe that's the kick I need.

makeorbrake

So if this $2 trillion bill is proving to be a tonic, should the powers that be follow up with another one? Then we all can make phat money on the markets.

Nothing can possibly go wrong so what's the harm?

Underground

Have the cash on hand ready to go. Just waiting for a good enough moment, never going to time it perfectly.

Suprised at how quickly some prices are recovering. Further dips to come yet methinks...

Edit: also think people who think we'll clear up the mess as quickly as China have (or claim to have) are definitely on the optimistic side. It's much easier for China to get a a virus under control when they can implement any draconian measures they like and don't have to worry about those pesky non -issues like human rights.

manonboard

Shedite27 wrote: »

Aim has been stinking up my portfolio recently. Bought it too late, it's top of my portfolio alphabetically and hate seeing a big red at the top when i start looking through my stocks

Is there a sort function on the column? With a little luck, we could make this problem the last on your list of worries

all about the mane

Underground wrote: »

Have the cash on hand ready to go. Just waiting for a good enough moment, never going to time it perfectly.

Suprised at how quickly some prices are recovering. Further dips to come yet methinks...

Edit: also think people who think we'll clear up the mess as quickly as China have (or claim to have) are definitely on the optimistic side. It's much easier for China to get a a virus under control when they can implement any draconian measures they like and don't have to worry about those pesky non -issues like human rights.

Have the vast majority of my cash on the sidelines. Beginning to think I’ve missed the bottom

Bob Harris

all about the mane wrote: »

Have the vast majority of my cash on the sidelines. Beginning to think I’ve missed the bottom

I doubt it tbh.

Taylor365

This is unprecedented.

Anyone sure of themselves is to be taken with a grain of salt.

I have no idea why markets are green while everything else goes to hell.

all about the mane

Bob Harris wrote: »

I doubt it tbh.

I still think some shares have bottomed. The likes of tilray were an absolute bargain 3 days ago. Kicking myself as I was watching them closely.

Mad_maxx

bought airbus again yesterday @54.50 , closed today @ 72

if Boeing can soar , so too can its french counterpart

sweet !

coolshannagh28

There are opportunities but the risk and whipsaw is crazy , when reality strikes in the next week or so the rally could end and then find a bottom in the next month or so when theres blood on the streets .The slight plateau in Italian death numbers may also be a factor in this rally .

all about the mane

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

There are opportunities but the risk and whipsaw is crazy , when reality strikes in the next week or so the rally could end and then find a bottom in the next month or so when theres blood on the streets .The slight plateau in Italian death numbers may also be a factor in this rally .

Is it not more to do with the stimulus package?

Outkast_IRE

The worst is yet to come in all major economies outside of China.



The markets have reacted to the massive stimulus , but the stimulus is too early, none of the big companies have really quantified in hard numbers the impact of the current events are going to have on them because they cant. The likes of Ryanair , Boeing, IAG, Airbus getting a boost when they cant even really quantify how bad its going to be for them is nuts.



My money is on the sidelines i will guess for the next 2 weeks. There are some quick gains out there to be had out there , but the big sharks are all playing that gain trying to recover their losses and will be first out in the dip.

littlemac1980

So if this is how the markets are right now, imagine what would happen if they announced a vaccine was discovered...

all about the mane

littlemac1980 wrote: »

So if this is how the markets are right now, imagine what would happen if they announced a vaccine was discovered...

Think that’s a long way off

beggars_bush

What happens when the real figures from China come out?

They've just closed their borders to foreign travellers