Share Picks 2020

all about the mane

Bob Harris wrote: »

I think there will be a significant drop in the next week or two in the S&P of at least 10% I would think that should bring us to in or around the bottom. I'd be interested at those levels for picking up some long term holdings.

Why do you think this?

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

Just seen one of the large brokerage firms reported an unprecedented increase in new accounts created and inactive accounts resurrected (password resets). If I heard right they said 8 times the norm. Average JOE THE TAXI DRIVER is buying stocks now. Everyone seems to believe this is the opportunity of their life already.

What I think is people are going to get crushed. So many are going to lose their savings while businesses behind their stocks will start falling. There's way too much optimism in the markets at the moment. This state cannot last.

The "Standstill" means companies burn through their savings and businesses without huge cash reserves will, in big numbers, not survive.

Yes I have heard that as well from TV interviews with brokerage firms.

Individual wanting to buy after a drop makes sense, but I agree they are early.

Also while they might bring some fresh cash into the market, this will be nothing like the effect of stock buybacks coming to an end and pension funds reducing their investment flows (as people lose their jobs and stop making pension contributions).

voluntary

Just thinking, cyber companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter who earn most of their revenue from advertisement must be also feeling pain right now. It may not be intuitive, as people at homes still use their services, but the business models where users do not pay, but advertisers pay is surely biting them right now.

antimatterx

I'm not putting any money in anything right now. I just want to see how the market recovers after the Corona passes us by.

I don't mind missing the bottom, I'd rather comfortable buying stocks. Two stocks I'm really looking at are Apple and Coca Cola. They are two great companies, with loyal consumers and they essentially print money.

Other companies I like are Microsoft, a fintech company like Visa/Mastercard and I will take a riskier punt on Delta once we see if they are bailed out or not.

Bob Harris

all about the mane wrote: »

Why do you think this?

The chart alone looks like it is set up for another leg down.
There will be good days, like when the rescue plan was announced and I'm sure one of these days we'll have positive vaccination reports that will have a similar effect but the overall trend will be down.

Economic activity has ground to a halt. Consumption has plummeted, unemployment has rocketed and I don't think the consequences of that is fully priced into the market.

If look at it from a very micro level - I have the same amount of cash in my wallet for the last month. I have spent hardly anything other than on essentials, groceries etc This is happening the world over.

I think that once the world comes out of the grip of corona virus economic activity will bounce but won't get near the levels of the pre-covid economy.

As Bob24 said- there is very little visibility and if there is anything the markets don't like it's uncertainty.

We'll be getting into first quarter earnings we'll get a better picture of how much revenue has been hit and guidance and the picture probably won't be very pretty and that's why Id be waiting until till then at least. The future might be bleak but at least if you know it's bleak you have a starting point whereas now we're still at the stage where we're not sure just how bad it is or will get.

all about the mane

Bob Harris wrote: »

The chart alone looks like it is set up for another leg down.
There will be good days, like when the rescue plan was announced and I'm sure one of these days we'll have positive vaccination reports that will have a similar effect but the overall trend will be down.

Economic activity has ground to a halt. Consumption has plummeted, unemployment has rocketed and I don't think the consequences of that is fully priced into the market.

If look at it from a very micro level - I have the same amount of cash in my wallet for the last month. I have spent hardly anything other than on essentials, groceries etc This is happening the world over.

I think that once the world comes out of the grip of corona virus economic activity will bounce but won't get near the levels of the pre-covid economy.

As Bob24 said- there is very little visibility and if there is anything the markets don't like it's uncertainty.

We'll be getting into first quarter earnings we'll get a better picture of how much revenue has been hit and guidance and the picture probably won't be very pretty and that's why Id be waiting until till then at least. The future might be bleak but at least if you know it's bleak you have a starting point whereas now we're still at the stage where we're not sure just how bad it is or will get.

I wonder if unemployment is priced in? NFP numbers yesterday were 7 times the expected. The worst in history. Yet the indices didn’t even blink.

Bob Harris

all about the mane wrote: »

I wonder if unemployment is priced in? NFP numbers yesterday were 7 times the expected. The worst in history. Yet the indices didn’t even blink.

As Barry Murphy used to say - they are in the Niall.

Bob24

all about the mane wrote: »

I wonder if unemployment is priced in? NFP numbers yesterday were 7 times the expected. The worst in history. Yet the indices didn’t even blink.

Quite possibly it isn’t priced in, and the thing is it is extremely hard to price.

The huge spike is something unseen before as economies have never been stopped voluntarily and so quickly before (wars can to some extend compare but not perfectly). So the question is: once the lockdowns are lifted, how many of the 10s of millions of American workers who became unemployed are going back to work as quickly as they became unemployed? (talking about Americans as you mentioned NFP but of course it extends to other counties) Some will go back to work Very quickly but not everyone, and the ratio is very hard thing to estimate as there is no previous experience to relate to ...

RedRochey

manonboard wrote: »

Edit* WHAT happened in france last night? 23k+ new cases?

Think they started to include data from nursing homes, don't know why they didn't do this already

Lex Luthor

Shedite27 wrote: »

Live Nation down 10% again today. Heard Mark Cuban speaking them up recently.

• On the plus, they've virtually a monopoly, gigs will resume eventually, and artists who are losing money will be desperate to get touring, huge amount of people will be dying for nights out/gigs.
• On the negative, will a lot of people be put off being in crowded spaces? Also a lot of the gigs that are cancelled this summer will have customers entitled to refunds, and they've quite a bit of debt already.

I think if you believe gigs will be back in business by Christmas, the share price could double in price.

I'd like to see them sub $20 before getting back in

Jim2007

voluntary wrote: »

Just seen one of the large brokerage firms reported an unprecedented increase in new accounts created and inactive accounts resurrected (password resets). If I heard right they said 8 times the norm. Average JOE THE TAXI DRIVER is buying stocks now. Everyone seems to believe this is the opportunity of their life already.

What I think is people are going to get crushed. So many are going to lose their savings while businesses behind their stocks will start falling. There's way too much optimism in the markets at the moment. This state cannot last.

The "Standstill" means companies burn through their savings and businesses without huge cash reserves will, in big numbers, not survive.

This nothing new, it happens every single time. Look at the research, most money is lost in the months and years after the bad news, as the people who missed the last ride, climb aboard to make sure they don’t miss the next one.

LessOutragePlz

Lads anyone else looking at shares in the 3 big cruise operators: Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian. They'll all tanked in the last few weeks just don't know if they've hit bottom yet and if they'll survive longterm? I suppose were back to trying to catch a falling knife but, I'm just interested to here other people's thoughts on them.

Bob24

Jim2007 wrote: »

This nothing new, it happens every single time. Look at the research, most money is lost in the months and years after the bad news, as the people who missed the last ride, climb aboard to make sure they don’t miss the next one.

True but actually assuming people don’t panic and sell, even those jumping gun a bit early and getting burned with the second leg of the correction can do OK. They might buy at lets say 25% discount from the previous high whereby the bottom is at 50%, but at the end of the day no one can time the exact bottom and the following recovery will bring decent profit even to those who entree half way through the dip as long as they wait and don’t panic sell.

Bob24

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Lads anyone else looking at shares in the 3 big cruise operators: Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian. They'll all tanked in the last few weeks just don't know if they've hit bottom yet and if they'll survive longterm? I suppose were back to trying to catch a falling knife but, I'm just interested to here other people's thoughts on them.

I have had my eyes on them but since my assumption is that the overall market is about to experience a second leg of the dip I am waiting to see what the cruise operators are doing as part of this.

Having said that, at the current prices they are already dirt cheap if you have a medium to long term timeline and are assuming they will likely survive, and IMO for someone who is ready to lose all their money in case they go bankrupt, the reward/risk ratio is already pretty good (there will be almost no earnings this year, but based on last years earnings they all have a P/E ratio below between 1.5 and 3 ... so if/when earnings return to historical levels the current share prices will be insanely low). Anyone going in should keep in mind that there is a little of a gamble in buying them though, as there is a really possibility of the companies going bankrupt and those shares becoming worthless (I believe some of them have used ship as collaterals for very high interest rate loans they need to survive while they can’t operate, which I think means that if the impossibly to sail lasts for too long they could lose their ships which would likely be used by new companies in better financial shape once the situation becomes more favourable).

LessOutragePlz

Bob24 wrote: »

I have had my eyes on them but since my assumption is that the overall market is about to experience a second leg of the dip I am waiting to see what the cruise operators are doing as part of this.

Having said that, at the current prices they are already dirt cheap if you have a medium to long term timeline and are assuming they will likely survive, and IMO for someone who is ready to lose all their money in case they go bankrupt, the reward/risk ratio is already pretty good (there will be almost no earnings this year, but based on last years earnings they all have a P/E ratio below between 1.5 and 3 ... so if/when earnings return to historical levels the current share prices will be insanely low). Anyone going in should keep in mind that there is a little of a gamble in buying them though, as there is a really possibility of the companies going bankrupt and those shares becoming worthless (I believe some of them have used ship as collaterals for very high interest rate loans they need to survive while they can’t operate, which I think means that if the impossibly to sail lasts for too long they could lose their ships which would likely be used by new companies in better financial shape once the situation becomes more favourable).

Thanks very much for the input, yeah it's money I can afford to lose it's just a bit I'd saved up for a holiday I'll no longer be going on. Yeah there is obviously a risk that some of them won't survive if they can't sail in the long term but, as you said they could end up being a good medium to long term investment. Maybe I'll hold off another while and see if a second dip does come because the market is being fairly volatile at the moment!

Bob Harris

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Thanks very much for the input, yeah it's money I can afford to lose it's just a bit I'd saved up for a holiday I'll no longer be going on. Yeah there is obviously a risk that some of them won't survive if they can't sail in the long term but, as you said they could end up being a good medium to long term investment. Maybe I'll hold off another while and see if a second dip does come because the market is being fairly volatile at the moment!

It would be ironic to lose money you set aside for a holiday on companies that are going broke because they can't provide the holidays people booked with them.

I gambled twice during the welk on Norweigan, from from 10.40 to nearly 12 and then 8.90 to just over 9, sold yesterday when they spiked on opening and saw them fall back down to 8.30 or so. I think they'll go to around 6 and wouldn't be messing around with them till then.

LessOutragePlz

Bob Harris wrote: »

It would be ironic to lose money you set aside for a holiday on companies that are going broke because they can't provide the holidays people booked with them.

I gambled twice during the welk on Norweigan, from from 10.40 to nearly 12 and then 8.90 to just over 9, sold yesterday when they spiked on opening and saw them fall back down to 8.30 or so. I think they'll go to around 6 and wouldn't be messing around with them till then.

Hahaha yeah I never thought of it that way but that's true it would be a double whammy! Yeah I'll keep an eye on them and see if they go lower wouldn't be throwing huge money at them but I'd try pick up a few of them and hold them longer term. I don't have the nerves, knowhow or capital to be buying and selling short term.

Bob24

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Hahaha yeah I never thought of it that way but that's true it would be a double whammy! Yeah I'll keep an eye on them and see if they go lower wouldn't be throwing huge money at them but I'd try pick up a few of them and hold them longer term. I don't have the nerves, knowhow or capital to be buying and selling short term.

And btw the another nice thing about holding long term if they eventually recover to pre-crisis earnings: at current share prices the dividend yields are in the 10-25% range (obviously in the short term it doesn't mean anything as there will be no dividend this year and small or no dividend next year even if things go back to normal as they will need to repay their emergency loans, but if you can hold for a few years and they return to business as usual by then, that you be a nice dividend yield for the price you paid).

Thargor

Unless they end up diluted to sh1t...

Irish_rat

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm not putting any money in anything right now. I just want to see how the market recovers after the Corona passes us by.

I don't mind missing the bottom, I'd rather comfortable buying stocks. Two stocks I'm really looking at are Apple and Coca Cola. They are two great companies, with loyal consumers and they essentially print money.

Other companies I like are Microsoft, a fintech company like Visa/Mastercard and I will take a riskier punt on Delta once we see if they are bailed out or not.

Someone that speaks sense. I own appl stock for about 10 years now. I have a feeling they'll drop below 200. Tempted to put more into them.

I think waiting for the virus to pass is the best strategy right now the risk is very high at the minute. Boeing (I know!) could be real value soon.

Bob24

Irish_rat wrote: »

Someone that speaks sense. I own appl stock for about 10 years now. I have a feeling they'll drop below 200. Tempted to put more into them.

I think waiting for the virus to pass is the best strategy right now the risk is very high at the minute. Boeing (I know!) could be real value soon.

What does it mean to wait for the virus to pass though?

- Does it mean we pass the contamination peak, but then can we reliably and early enough make a call on this?
- Does it mean we wait until the virus is completely eradicated? (It could take a while and will be hard to tell for sure as things could calm down before it comes back for a second wave)
- Does it include waiting for the financial and economic impact of the virus to get settled? (mass unemployment, debt crisis, recession) Then it might take a long time.
- etc

voluntary

Nobody knows so one can only make his own judgment. I judge that the global economy is getting battered and there's no quick turnaround. US indexes only dropped to 2017/2018 levels, S&P is still near double the pre-2008 crisis and over 4 times the 2008 bottom. Tech is even worse, NASDAQ only dropped to what it was 12 months ago, the pandemic only wiped the tip of the iceberg on the US tech charts.

I believe what we've seen so far is only a prelude to the real stock shock.

all about the mane

Nice video on US airlines. Don't like alot of the videos on youtube when it comes to investing but this is well thought out and well researched:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_rQp9ni5nw

Mad_maxx

voluntary wrote: »

Nobody knows so one can only make his own judgment. I judge that the global economy is getting battered and there's no quick turnaround. US indexes only dropped to 2017/2018 levels, S&P is still near double the pre-2008 crisis and over 4 times the 2008 bottom. Tech is even worse, NASDAQ only dropped to what it was 12 months ago, the pandemic only wiped the tip of the iceberg on the US tech charts.

I believe what we've seen so far is only a prelude to the real stock shock.

the bottom was march 6th 2009 when the intraday S+P touched 666 , the pre great recession high was circa 1550 in late 2007 so we are about 60% above the pre crash levels today

Mad_maxx

reports over the weekend that buffett has reduced his stake in delta , he was very bullish on airlines not that long ago , that should see airlines fall on monday baring a miracle

Lex Luthor

Mad_maxx wrote: »

reports over the weekend that buffett has reduced his stake in delta , he was very bullish on airlines not that long ago , that should see airlines fall on monday baring a miracle

even the elites have stop losses

Mad_maxx

Lex Luthor wrote: »

even the elites have stop losses

buffet is known for not panic selling , perhaps he fears bankruptcy is a high possibility

Lex Luthor

Mad_maxx wrote: »

buffet is known for not panic selling , perhaps he fears bankruptcy is a high possibility

probably, he'll be into American Airlines next

Mad_maxx

the recovery of the european oil majors since around st paddys day has been nothing short of sensational , they more or less experienced a great depression level of price fall in the space of a week , brutal wash out and then a 70% recovery in the case of royal dutch shell , total not far behind in terms of comeback

with oil still very cheap i dont see them regaining highs any quicker than the overall market but if they manage to avoid cutting their dividends , they were the steal of the century three weeks ago

Timmaay

What will this new oil deal on Monday do for the markets? It will probably be a good news story that will boost the markets short term, and isn't the worse ace up trumps sleeve seeing as he's prob used up all his money printing market boosts, but where will we be later in the week will be more interesting I think.