Share Picks 2020

ELM327

Just sold AAL at 11 USD peak open, it's dropping now already

LessOutragePlz

DM1983 wrote: »

Sooooo. I've been holding cash waiting and waiting. Have I missed it??!

I'm in the same boat although it's not a huge pile of cash kind of afraid to jump in now in case there is another subsequent dip as others have alluded to. Might hold off for another week or 2 and see what way things are then as others have said the raise in prices of Ryanair makes no sense really when they can't fly at the moment but the market hasn't exactly been acting rationally throughout this crisis. So much for the EMH that I learned in college!

Bob24

Btw I was just checking the VIX and it still is 44. Half if the very top in March (which was madness), but still very high (it hasn't been close to those levels since the GFC).

As long a we are above 20-25 I'm assuming we are still in rollercoaster mode.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Just sold AAL at 11 USD peak open, it's dropping now already

And now after that drop initially it's testing 12 usd/

retalivity

I'm effectively even again, after the whole portfolio being down 24%-ish 2-3 weeks ago.
Cashing in my chips, (except the blue ones!), will re-buy in after easter

bilbot79

Well I just cashed out immediately and next thing you know prices started soaring. Doh. Still in profit though and happy as last time I had bought in too high

ELM327

Thats the thing, in order to rationally make money you sometimes miss the irrational ups (and downs).
I'm testing a binary logic and today was the right day to sell AAL under that logic. Same as it would have been to sell much anything else, had I not already sold (TSLA, Iron Mountain, Exxon, NCLH,BA etc)

MurDawg

astrofluff wrote: »

Sorry to hear of your troubles MurDawg. Please excuse my ignorance on this, but would Luckin Coffee not be in a precarious position or is it a good punt at such a low price. Just trying to understand the risk based on this info of a possible pending lawsuit:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luckin-coffee-lead-plaintiff-deadline-071600628.html

Buying at the low price it is at today? Hard to say - I would say get well away from this

It will take a long time to recover that trust it built. The total amount of the fraud exceeds RMB 2.2 billion, or roughly $310 million, and shares are down more than 80%

There were virtually no warning signs in advance - The amount of damages is still not known... Who's to know the fraud is limited to the COO. CEO and COO have a very long relationship here.

Not to mention the brand has taken a huge hit. There is a chance the company could go bust, but on the other hand Luckin Coffee is loved by the Chinese public, i could see the government get involved which would be huge.

China's coffee market should interest everyone - the growth in coffee consumption in China is the highest in the world. I

Nemeses2050

ELM327 wrote: »

And now after that drop initially it's testing 12 usd/

tell me about it, sold @11.25

voluntary

I'm out this round.

Lex Luthor

I'll be honest, I can see much better bargains down the road from now in about 9-12 months so I'm staying well out and have some buy orders in but for ridiculously lower values than the current market price

This is short term and we'll probably see a lot more blood before any recovery

theboringfox

Not sure anyone can call the bottom. Just too many unknowns. Someone will be right and be proclaimed a genius. All I am doing is looking at companies I think have the balance sheet and market position to be strong on other side of all this. I can see arguments for further drops but I am only investing where I can take the hit and looking to hold for at least 5 years. I dont have the stomach or cash for trading in and out of positions in short timeframes.

voluntary

I keep ~95% of my stock/gambling money in cash and use the 5% to buy and sell as days go. When the time is right I'll step in heavier and will likely hold for long. Waiting is boring though so I keep trading small amounts, buy on local deeps, sell on local peaks. My long term goal is to enter more heavily when/if NASDAQ hits 5500 (60%) and then leave 30-40% cash for further purchases when/if stocks keep going down. The last thing anybody wants is to watch stock hitting record lows and not having any cash left to enter the opportunity.

Shedite27

theboringfox wrote: »

Not sure anyone can call the bottom. Just too many unknowns. Someone will be right and be proclaimed a genius. All I am doing is looking at companies I think have the balance sheet and market position to be strong on other side of all this. I can see arguments for further drops but I am only investing where I can take the hit and looking to hold for at least 5 years. I dont have the stomach or cash for trading in and out of positions in short timeframes.

Same, my portfolio is mainly* companies I believe are going to be worth more in 5 years time than they are today. There will undoubtedly be days they will be lower, but second guessing yourself you'll never make money. As someone said, "Time in the market is more important than timing the market"

all about the mane

For anyone who is into Fibonacci theory. It does look like Wall street hit the 50% retrace last month.

RedRochey

all about the mane wrote: »

For anyone who is into Fibonacci theory. It does look like Wall street hit the 50% retrace last month.

Meaning?

all about the mane

StockTwat29 wrote: »

Meaning?

The uptrend could well still be intact on the monthly

coolshannagh28

all about the mane wrote: »

For anyone who is into Fibonacci theory. It does look like Wall street hit the 50% retrace last month.

I have the 50% level at 2000 so it may indicate that the recovery is genuine ; the plateau in Italian and Spanish cases and the success of lockdown in other countries plus the 2 trillion injection has given the big guns confidence but its not over yet .

all about the mane

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I have the 50% level at 2000 so it may indicate that the recovery is genuine ; the plateau in Italian and Spanish cases and the success of lockdown in other countries plus the 2 trillion injection has given the big guns confidence but its not over yet .

50% level for me is at 18000. With 61.8 level at 15500. This is where I would love to get in. Nothing to say it will get there though

littlemac1980

Is Luckin bust, or trading frozen? No chart or movement today?

Nemeses2050

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Is Luckin bust, or trading frozen? No chart or movement today?

Assuming trading forzen.

littlemac1980

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Assuming trading forzen.

Haven’t been able to find an article online... did find this but it’s about a related company though.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-ucar-luckin-chairman-top-044711352.html

coolshannagh28

all about the mane wrote: »

50% level for me is at 18000. With 61.8 level at 15500. This is where I would love to get in. Nothing to say it will get there though

I have my fibs on the s+p but yes those lines are correct for the Dow.

Nemeses2050

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Haven’t been able to find an article online... did find this but it’s about a related company though.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-ucar-luckin-chairman-top-044711352.html

Didn't see anything myself either, a bunch of lawsuits though...so am assuming its been frozen...

Thankfully only got a small quantity of them.

Found a link on seeking alpha, which says trading halted until further news.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3558985-trading-halt-on-luckin-coffee

Piehead

Thinking of a few quid into AIB. Any thoughts?

Lex Luthor

its artificially being pumped by the trillions being printed off out of thin air...

I'll see your 50% fibonacci retrace level and raise you to 76.4%....!!!! :-)

Nemeses2050

Anything to play for tomorrow? ,😀

Rally loosing steam in the last hour

Mad_maxx

Piehead wrote: »

Thinking of a few quid into AIB. Any thoughts?

hard to see how banks can make money in this country for the next while , they are more or less being forced to act like a charity at the moment

Bob24

Mad_maxx wrote: »

hard to see how banks can make money in this country for the next while , they are more or less being forced to act like a charity at the moment

Agree - but I'd go a far as saying in this monetary union, not just in this country. EZ banks will basically become branches of the ECB to implement its monetary easing and stimulus policies which are killing their profit margins and makes them increasingly dependant on central bank support.

I wouldn't touch any EZ bank, and probably very few banks in general (but my perspective is long term investment in companies I believe in, of course someone buying for short term speculation is another story and might make the right trades).

Browney7

MurDawg wrote: »

Buying at the low price it is at today? Hard to say - I would say get well away from this

It will take a long time to recover that trust it built. The total amount of the fraud exceeds RMB 2.2 billion, or roughly $310 million, and shares are down more than 80%

There were virtually no warning signs in advance - The amount of damages is still not known... Who's to know the fraud is limited to the COO. CEO and COO have a very long relationship here.

Not to mention the brand has taken a huge hit. There is a chance the company could go bust, but on the other hand Luckin Coffee is loved by the Chinese public, i could see the government get involved which would be huge.

China's coffee market should interest everyone - the growth in coffee consumption in China is the highest in the world. I

Read a piece saying that app downloads had engine through the roof but plenty speculatiom that it was just people cashing in coupons and vouchers in case they go bust!

A right Enron!