Share Picks 2020

voluntary

‘Risk to the downside is greater than the opportunity to the upside from this point where we stand today.’
Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin.

“There’s a little bit of asymmetry in terms of the downside risk toward a level in the S&P 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25%, and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000,”

coolshannagh28

voluntary wrote: »

‘Risk to the downside is greater than the opportunity to the upside from this point where we stand today.’
Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin.

The S+P did not hit the 2000 fib level so that would be a concern for the technical people , there could still be enough covid pain out there to drive it lower again and it is possible that the pandemic has coincided with the recession that was due and the QE is masking the effects which will be revealed as the year unfolds.

voluntary

The first 2020 quarter corporate results will only be known in May. Some insiders already have some clues but wouldn't have a wider picture. I think the Q1 will be terrible but the Q2 results published in August will be even much worse.

Nemeses2050

Agree, as some of the countries only started locking down since mid-march, so Q1will not reflect the full effect...Q2 will be a blood bath with millions of job losses and what not.

coolshannagh28

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Agree, as some of the countries only started locking down since mid-march, so Q1will not reflect the full effect...Q2 will be a blood bath with millions of job losses and what not.

Q1 may be the canary in the coalmine for the end of the bull cycle.

Shedite27

voluntary wrote: »

The first 2020 quarter corporate results will only be known in May. Some insiders already have some clues but wouldn't have a wider picture. I think the Q1 will be terrible but the Q2 results published in August will be even much worse.

I think if you're applying old world economics to the current scenario you're gonna lose in this world. In the past, results down, meant the company was on a downward trajectory, which meant people sold shares.

The dog on the street knows results will be poor in August, but if stores are open by then, do you think people will turn around then and say "oh, sales are down for Q2, I better sell my shares now".

Quarterly Results do not reflect company outlook if the pandemic is showing signs of righting itself.

Nemeses2050

some small Bio-tech companies opening with huge gains on covid-19 test news...be careful with them.

Jim2007

Shedite27 wrote: »

I think if you're applying old world economics to the current scenario you're gonna lose in this world. In the past, results down, meant the company was on a downward trajectory, which meant people sold shares.

Yes because this time it is different, just like it has been in every other recession... except it never is.

The economies will contract and stimulus packages will cause inflation and if you are not modelling that kind of thing into your valuation models, you will loose, just like always.

If you spent your efforts trying to time the market and use math to predict human behaviour you will in the long term loose, just as always.

MyTax Ireland

voluntary wrote: »

The first 2020 quarter corporate results will only be known in May. Some insiders already have some clues but wouldn't have a wider picture. I think the Q1 will be terrible but the Q2 results published in August will be even much worse.

Great point! Just need to figure out if that expectation has been built into current pricing..

Lex Luthor

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

some small Bio-tech companies opening with huge gains on covid-19 test news...be careful with them.

Ya I have a few GNMK
UP 33% today, ridiculous

Nemeses2050

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Ya I have a few GNMK
UP 33% today, ridiculous

Nice one, hold it with a stop loss.

XMG

MurDawg wrote: »

There were virtually no warning signs in advance

There was, Carson Block was banging the table on it in January or February.

ctlsleh

voluntary wrote: »

The first 2020 quarter corporate results will only be known in May. Some insiders already have some clues but wouldn't have a wider picture. I think the Q1 will be terrible but the Q2 results published in August will be even much worse.

I agree.......Q1 results will be fine, but in the Qtly’s CEOs will be talking to a downward trend for Q2 and supply chain issues that will limit revenue, depending on how much inventories were carried into Q2......... so Q2 will be down considerably but Q3 will be a disaster as the real impacts of Covid will only hit the numbers in the US, LATAM and Africa where it’s only starting now And it will take At least 4 months for them to come out The other side

Mach 3

Jim2007 wrote: »

Yes because this time it is different, just like it has been in every other recession... except it never is.

The economies will contract and stimulus packages will cause inflation and if you are not modelling that kind of thing into your valuation models, you will loose, just like always.

If you spent your efforts trying to time the market and use math to predict human behaviour you will in the long term loose, just as always.

Do you have a source for that? 2008 to Present.

Jim2007

Mach 3 wrote: »

Do you have a source for that? 2008 to Present.

Any 101 college text book in economics, this is basic stuff! Or just go and google what happens in a recession and the causes for inflation....

Mach 3

Jim2007 wrote: »

Any 101 college text book in economics, this is basic stuff! Or just go and google what happens in a recession and the causes for inflation....

2008 to Present?

Sir_Name

SDS Proshares Ultrashort seems to have dropped again to around the 26-27 mark.
Should I be loading up on this? Currently holding mostly cash....

Jim2007

Mach 3 wrote: »

2008 to Present?

Was a recovery period.....

manonboard

Sir_Name wrote: »

SDS Proshares Ultrashort seems to have dropped again to around the 26-27 mark.
Should I be loading up on this? Currently holding mostly cash....

Does the price here matter so much since its tracking 2X the inverse? How would you measure value of it?
If you believe its a falling market. Definitely buy, if you are seeing recovery, definitely dont.

Outkast_IRE

Big rally across most shares this morning.

Think i will sell before lunchtime today, gut tells me it might drop coming up to the weekend with people taking their gains and getting out for a few days.

Lex Luthor

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

Big rally across most shares this morning.

Think i will sell before lunchtime today, gut tells me it might drop coming up to the weekend with people taking their gains and getting out for a few days.

I think everyone thought that a couple weeks ago and the opposite happened

Right now anything is possible and I'm inclined to just see whats happening

You need to be very experienced to call this one and make anything out of it

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

Here's one that the SP was hard hit but if things in the World get back on track the SP should recover quickly ............ they install virtual reality pods & headsets etc in themeparks and zoos. Small company ........ Immotion Group PLC. .... https://immotion.co.uk/

Currently 2.29 GBX, was 4 times that recently and hit a low of 1.05 GBX ish.

Hit badly by Covid19 and might well not recover and go bust. Not one for huge wads of cash.

Has doubled over the last few days without an RNS, 4.50 now, might go higher but it's a tad loony a rise to me so I'll take my money and run.

Mantis Toboggan

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Is Luckin bust, or trading frozen? No chart or movement today?

Anymore info on this?

Can't find anything online.

Bob Harris

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Anymore info on this?

Can't find anything online.

Typical Chinese transparency!

voluntary

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

some small Bio-tech companies opening with huge gains on covid-19 test news...be careful with them.

High-risk, high-reward. Some of them will likely be bought by larger pharma. I picked few which are already way UP. If they patented promising drugs I'd make sure these already passed the clinical trials as these may take years and cost millions.

OwlsZat

A long term pick of mine Pluristem (PSTI) is going well on the COVID buzz, as is TEVA. The testing shout through here AYTU not so much.

ELM327

I sold TEVA a while back at a small profit, before this rally, it still hasnt reached the peak it had then I think.

Nemeses2050

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I think everyone thought that a couple weeks ago and the opposite happened

Right now anything is possible and I'm inclined to just see whats happening

You need to be very experienced to call this one and make anything out of it

I think even experienced professional's are baffled by these rally's...

I would hold to my postions with a tight stop loss.

Bob24

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I think even experienced professional's are baffled by these rally's...

I would hold to my postions with a tight stop loss.

Yeah everyone know the economic fallouts of this crisis will be massive and are not priced-in - but everyone also knows that being right too early isn't too different from being wrong.

Besides the uncertainty about the health crisis and its economic impacts, one big issue to call on what market prices should be is that central banks are getting more and more involved with controlling markets so prices can be disconnected from real value and influenced by political decision and monetary policies.

Jim2007

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I think even experienced professional's are baffled by these rally's...

Have a look at the order book... the experienced professionals have left...