Share Picks 2020

Lex Luthor

Bob24 wrote: »

Very possible and I certainly have cash ready for that scenario.

But I have to say I am not discarding a scenario whereby central banks and governments prevent any further significant market cash in the coming months with all their money printing and debt based stimulus.

IMO it will lead to massive issues in the long run, but what they have done in the past few weeks truly is unprecedented and could be enough to keep the music playing for another while.

thats mainly my take on it aswell, I'm not confident enough to dip in too much now as I feel there is going to be a huge correction and much bigger bargains to be got next year

I've only dipped my toes in since the crash to a few stocks and I've had a mixed bit of success from them

ENZ is now @ $2.39 I got in @ $2.55
GNMK is @ $7.74 I got in @ $4.50
SSYS is @ 16.73 I got in @ $13.71

Kept half my bag of PAVM, sold the other half @ $1.75, going well @ $2.43, think I bought in around the $1 mark

SDRL has taken a pounding but it was already down a bit before it dropped further

I've got a good few buy orders in for a list of stocks but they are well below current values

Likes of MSFT, PG, UBER, Exxon, AT&T, Disney, Citi, Coke, Delta & Southwest

RedRochey

Dots1982 wrote: »

So institutional investors have bought the dip to fool retail investors that there is a genuine supportable recovery? The institutional investor make a few bucks before commencing the big short?

Have I got the drift?

But doesn't the data from Vanguard and State Street etc. show that retail investors are doing most of the buying and the institutions are the ones selling?

all about the mane

StockTwat29 wrote: »

But doesn't the data from Vanguard and State Street etc. show that retail investors are doing most of the buying and the institutions are the ones selling?

Do you have a link to that?

Timmaay

Bob24 wrote: »

Very possible and I certainly have cash ready for that scenario.

But I have to say I am not discarding a scenario whereby central banks and governments prevent any further significant market cash in the coming months with all their money printing and debt based stimulus.

IMO it will lead to massive issues in the long run, but what they have done in the past few weeks truly is unprecedented and could be enough to keep the music playing for another while.

Good point on the radio today, trump will do whatever it takes to stop the economy from tanking before the election. So print unlimited money and bail out whoever the hell needs money. Hes also very good at timing his press conferences, drop any sorta Bombshell like treating to pull the WHO funding to take headlines from some other story that is negative for the economy. When it all tanks afterwards I'm sure he'll manage to blame someone else ha. I've certainly missed out on this current rally but the trend is your friend probably rings true at the min.

RedRochey

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-pros-panic-over-113009492.html

The article is a bit out of date now but the one below has a similar message:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-blew-away-the-competition-in-q1-fund-flow-data-show-2020-04-03

kaymin

kaymin wrote: »

Eros Now - quoted on the NYSE under EROS.

• OTT platform in India. 23.5m paying subscribers and 177m registered subscribers.
• Succumbed to a ratings downgrade and a short seller hit piece back in June 2019 and share price hasn't recovered since. Short seller take (primarily concerning irrecoverable receivable balances) has proven to be untrue and head of rating agency (Care) had to step down due to corruption charges (not specifically linked to Eros downgrade though).
• Have announced deals with Apple, Google, Microsoft, Reliance and a host of top Chinese telecoms in the past 6 months.
• Next earnings announcement on 22nd February should start showing the fruits of these partnerships.
• Eros has been shifting its strategy from syndicating the films it produces to hosting them solely on their OTT platform to drive more paying customers to it.
• It is in the middle of a 'strategic review' which could see a buy-out offer.
• Close ties with Reliance, largest company in India (historically an oil company but now is the largest telecoms player with 350m customers) and owned by Ambani, India's richest man. Reliance owns 5% of Eros (paid $15 per share; current share price is $3.7) and is rumoured to own its convertible bonds. Its seen as unlikely that Reliance would allow ownership of Eros to fall into the hands of Netflix or Apple. Former CEO of Eros went to work for Reliance to lead their media division. Ambani apparently has close family ties with the Lulla family which controls Eros.

Link to presentation from conference in Las Vegas: https://erosplc.gcs-web.com/events-and-presentations/upcoming-events

Just to bump this one - merger announcement was made an hour before close on Friday. Expect the share price will fly further this week after the market digests the significance of the news.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200417005565/en/Eros-International-STX-Entertainment-Combine-Creating-Global

Kilboor

kaymin wrote: »

Just to bump this one - merger announcement was made an hour before close on Friday. Expect the share price will fly further this week after the market digests the significance of the news.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200417005565/en/Eros-International-STX-Entertainment-Combine-Creating-Global

Fair play, threw this in my watchlist when you mentioned it but never did any research on it!

Dots1982

StockTwat29 wrote: »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-pros-panic-over-113009492.html

The article is a bit out of date now but the one below has a similar message:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-blew-away-the-competition-in-q1-fund-flow-data-show-2020-04-03

The article is dated a month ago and the other one is on Q1 data. You couldn’t really confirm on who’s purchases the April rallies are based on.

kaymin

Kilboor wrote: »

Fair play, threw this in my watchlist when you mentioned it but never did any research on it!

Yeah price fell back down to $1.10 since my first post and went to $4 after hours on Friday. I'll be holding this for the long-run. $20+ is not unrealistic especially if it starts attracting Netflix type valuations which it deserves.

STX, the private company it is merging with is backed by US and Chinese heavy hitters. Merged entity is due to start trading by June so there will be a big run up in the Eros share price between now and then. Hopefully a short squeeze as well - 13m shares short at the moment. Timing of the announcement was probably done to maximise the pain for short sellers.

Some more background to the merger from STX ceo prior to the deal being announced:

“Through this (IPO) process we met with and received strong institutional support from investors around the world, who approached us with two very compelling opportunities that we frankly find more attractive and value-creating than listing in Hong Kong,” Simonds said. “While we can’t share details at this point, you should know we are actively engaged in one exciting process, which when done, will be transformative to our business. We feel very positive about where we are, especially coming off of ending fiscal 2018 more than doubling our revenue across all lines of business, with positive cash flow and over $160M of cash on our balance sheet.”

https://variety.com/2018/biz/asia/stx-entertainment-cancels-hong-kong-ipo-plans-1202997839/

It's a merger of equals meaning Eros should be valued at at least $3.5b. Even at the Fridays after hours closing price it is still valued at only $600m. And that's before taking account of the $50m+ annual synergies.

RedRochey

Dots1982 wrote: »

The article is dated a month ago and the other one is on Q1 data. You couldn’t really confirm on who’s purchases the April rallies are based on.

True but at least it's actual data

Here is the weekly flows where the SPY ETF had the most outflows again:
https://www.etf.com/sections/weekly-etf-flows/weekly-etf-flows-2020-04-16-2020-04-10

Dots1982

StockTwat29 wrote: »

True but at least it's actual data

Here is the weekly flows where the SPY ETF had the most outflows again:
https://www.etf.com/sections/weekly-etf-flows/weekly-etf-flows-2020-04-16-2020-04-10

So if it’s true they Presumably think now is a good time to buy and hold. *exhales deeply*

Mach 3

Timmaay wrote: »

Good point on the radio today, trump will do whatever it takes to stop the economy from tanking before the election. So print unlimited money and bail out whoever the hell needs money. Hes also very good at timing his press conferences, drop any sorta Bombshell like treating to pull the WHO funding to take headlines from some other story that is negative for the economy. When it all tanks afterwards I'm sure he'll manage to blame someone else ha. I've certainly missed out on this current rally but the trend is your friend probably rings true at the min.

Here's a few more:

The trend is your frienday ( until the bend)

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face

Men who pick bottoms get smelly fingers

Beware of complex ideas. More trades have been ruined by making them too complex rather than too simple.

Half of everything (or more) we believe will be obsolete in the next 45 years

There's always another trade

If you start to see conspiracies, stop trading

Physical health, mental health and good trading are brothers

Time is on your side, You haven't "missed" anything

If you feel 'hope', you're in a bad trade

Never take tips

Living to fight another day is the most important trade

Shedite27

kaymin wrote: »

Just to bump this one - merger announcement was made an hour before close on Friday. Expect the share price will fly further this week after the market digests the significance of the news.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200417005565/en/Eros-International-STX-Entertainment-Combine-Creating-Global

Bit of a noobie question, but this trades on Frankfurt also, which hasn't been open since the merger was announced. I assume there's no way of getting some shares at the lower price when that opens tomorrow morning is there? Is tehre a pre-market session in Frankfurt?

Great tip BTW, definitely gonna try to get a few of these shares at opening bell tomorrow.

kaymin

Shedite27 wrote: »

Bit of a noobie question, but this trades on Frankfurt also, which hasn't been open since the merger was announced. I assume there's no way of getting some shares at the lower price when that opens tomorrow morning is there? Is tehre a pre-market session in Frankfurt?

Great tip BTW, definitely gonna try to get a few of these shares at opening bell tomorrow.

I've never traded it on the Frankfurt exchange but just checked Bloomberg and it had zero volume for the last trading day so I doubt you will manage to get any. Pre-market on NYSE starts mid-day Irish time.

Eros has a separately listed subsidiary in India (~67% owned) that will trade overnight - link below. Will be interesting to see how its share price moves - from recollection, share price movements are capped at +/- 10% though. Don't buy shares in the subsidiary - they do the film production / distribution. It's the parent entity on the NYSE that owns the Eros Now OTT platform which is where the real growth is going to come from.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/mediaentertainment/erosinternationalmedia/EIM

bfa1509

I didn't realise such a thing existed but there are trackers of volatility (VIX is one I have heard of). Surely something like this would be a good pick right now if there is a turbulant few months/years ahead?

XMG

Apparently Schwab open a quarter million new accounts in March, due I’m guessing to people not working? That’s just one broker so plenty of stupid money in the markets now. Brokers might be worth looking at but with no commissions with most of them I have no idea how it will play out (I’ve no intentions of investing in them myself, day trading oil futures is keeping me happy)

RedRochey

bfa1509 wrote: »

I didn't realise such a thing existed but there are trackers of volatility (VIX is one I have heard of). Surely something like this would be a good pick right now if there is a turbulant few months/years ahead?

Already coming off all-time highs, can't see it getting anymore volatile than we have already experienced in March

Sir_Name

Oil down another 20+%... Expecting it to drop a bit further but i am jumping in anyway on the expectation of future returns

Lex Luthor

Sir_Name wrote: »

Oil down another 20+%... Expecting it to drop a bit further but i am jumping in anyway on the expectation of future returns

they cant give this stuff away at the moment and its going to be a while before the world starts making a dent in the reserves

I seen somewhere that WTI crude was at less than a dollar per barrel over the weekend, they have nowhere to put it

Saudi's can go as low as $25/barrel on brent and below that they are not making profit

Bob24

Sir_Name wrote: »

Oil down another 20+%... Expecting it to drop a bit further but i am jumping in anyway on the expectation of future returns

Beware the currently listed price of $12 is for future contracts which are expiring today and need to be rolled-over: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLK20.NYM

The contracts for next month are still at $22 as I post this and will become the closest active ones tomorrow: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLM20.NYM/

So there is a technical aspect to the drop.

RedRochey

What are people's thoughts on Visa, Mastercard and PayPal and the "war on cash"?

Haven't touched cash in weeks and even before that used my card for 90% of transactions, and surely now people are seeing how convenient using cards are

These companies just act as a sort of toll booth for transactions

Lex Luthor

StockTwat29 wrote: »

What are people's thoughts on Visa, Mastercard and PayPal and the "war on cash"?

Haven't touched cash in weeks and even before that used my card for 90% of transactions, and surely now people are seeing how convenient using cards are

These companies just act as a sort of toll booth for transactions

most central banks will be rolling out digital currencies over the next few years, China are currently testing theirs, ECB have run some tests and also the US

At some point imo, we will be on digital money and cash will be a thing of the past

Not sure how VISA/Mastercard will interface with this technology as accounts will need to be modified to deal with the digital aspect of currency

littlemac1980

Zoom looking to buck the Red trend today, up 3% approx today. I noticed Governor of New York mentioned Zoom in passing during a press conference on Saturday (I.e. not the obvious name dropping that Trump tries to engage in). Incredible how much of a household name Zoom has become from this situation.

99nsr125

Lex Luthor wrote: »

they cant give this stuff away at the moment and its going to be a while before the world starts making a dent in the reserves

I seen somewhere that WTI crude was at less than a dollar per barrel over the weekend, they have nowhere to put it

Saudi's can go as low as $25/barrel on brent and below that they are not making profit

Sour grades might've been a few dollars but not WTI over the weekend it's far from dry ground, single figures is calling and the Saudi's cash costs are $4-$6 a barrel but they need far more than that to balance their budget

littlevillage

kaymin wrote: »

I've never traded it on the Frankfurt exchange but just checked Bloomberg and it had zero volume for the last trading day so I doubt you will manage to get any. Pre-market on NYSE starts mid-day Irish time.

Eros has a separately listed subsidiary in India (~67% owned) that will trade overnight - link below. Will be interesting to see how its share price moves - from recollection, share price movements are capped at +/- 10% though. Don't buy shares in the subsidiary - they do the film production / distribution. It's the parent entity on the NYSE that owns the Eros Now OTT platform which is where the real growth is going to come from.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/mediaentertainment/erosinternationalmedia/EIM

EROS started like a rocket ... but seems to have run out of gas (errrm....like a rocket) too

littlemac1980

Anyone watching GameStop? Up 8% at to moment.

Irishder

Old favorite, VSTM seems to be taking off a bit

ELM327

NFLX earnings tomorrow. Shares rallying today

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Anyone watching GameStop? Up 8% at to moment.

12.5% now, maybe there was more going on than the proxy war?

Only recent news I can see is that they were offering a one day sale on Saturday (online only), maybe it’s due to their moving sales to online only and they see a good return on that?

OwlsZat

Irishder wrote: »

Old favorite, VSTM seems to be taking off a bit

Have followed it quite closely from rouge to hero CEO. Has become my biggest holding! Hope the KRAS results are as good as anticipated!