Share Picks 2020

Nemeses2050

choppy session today....

butrasgali

I'm not well up on oil shares or stocks..anyone got a good one at the moment to invest in please..

Bob24

butrasgali wrote: »

I'm not well up on oil shares or stocks..anyone got a good one at the moment to invest in please..

In Europe: Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and BP are all fairly solid companies and able to survive low oil prices for a while.

I believe Total and RDS are best positioned in terms of building renewable energy production and distribution businesses if that is of interest to you for the long term (but at the moment this is a minor part of their business).

In the US you have Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips. But I am not as familiar with these (some of them might be more solid than European ones, but I believe they have doing a lot less in terms of future business model changes towards renewables).

Personally and based on what I know I’d go either for RDS or Total (I like Total better but if you buy British RDS shares - not the Dutch shares - things are easier in terms of dividends taxation as the U.K. doesn’t apply withholding tax, which is nice if you’re in it for the long run as oil companies tend to pay good dividends).

Mad_maxx

Bob24 wrote: »

In Europe: Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and BP are all fairly solid companies and able to survive low oil prices for a while.

I believe Total and RDS are best positioned in terms of building renewable energy production and distribution businesses if that is of interest to you for the long term (but at the moment this is a minor part of their business).

In the US you have Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips. But I am not as familiar with these (some of them might be more solid than European ones, but I believe they have doing a lot less in terms of future business model changes towards renewables).

Personally and based on what I know I’d go either for RDS or Total (I like Total better but if you buy British RDS shares - not the Dutch shares - things are easier in terms of dividends taxation as the U.K. doesn’t apply withholding tax, which is nice if you’re in it for the long run as oil companies tend to pay good dividends).

total has a far healthier debt level but shell is still a very robust company , both are better than BP

voluntary

May's oil contracts basically free to take now.
$3 for a barrel, 80% daily drop

Whelo79

Is there a way for an absolute novice to make some money either short, medium or long term for this oil price crash?

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

May's oil contracts basically free to take now.
$3 for a barrel, 80% daily drop

Yes saw this :-D

I gather it basically just means pretty much no one wants to take delivery of oil today.

voluntary

OIL ETFs dropped nearly 10% today, you could buy one. Then June's contracts are also 10% down. The may's contracts are expiring soon and I think not enough place to store oil and hence the crash?
There are also leveraged products available to buy eg 2x short or 3x short / 2x long 3x long but I'd stay away from any leveraged instruments as a novice. Too much risk to go bust quick.

Nemeses2050

Whelo79 wrote: »

Is there a way for an absolute novice to make some money either short, medium or long term for this oil price crash?

If you have oil storage capacity.:D

voluntary

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes saw this :-D

I gather it basically just means pretty much no one wants to take delivery of oil today.

$1.84 right now and dropping :eek:

Pity there's no free delivery to your door

voluntary

€1.50 for 159 litres of oil.

Nemeses2050

EROs down 10%, be careful guys...I Understand India has huge population...but it's very hard to monetize those free subscribers... and they'll be competing with Netflix, Amazon and dozens of local channels.

littlemac1980

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

EROs down 10%, be careful guys...I Understand India has huge population...but it's very hard to monetize those free subscribers... and they'll be competing with Netflix, Amazon and dozens of local channels.

Does anyone know how India’s accounting practices compare to western standards?

It’s something I would be anxious to find out in advance if investing in an Indian business. Particularly one reporting it is highly successful.

I’m sure most here are aware of the recent issues with Luckin Coffee in China. Often people think they are comparing apples with apples when in fact you are holding a bunch of grapes.

Nemeses2050

@Littlemac...let's just say Ethical corporate reporting wouldn't be one of their best qualities...I understand if they're listed on US exchanges they have to follow certain standards...but I would be still vary of them...

"So what better time than to look into what might be termed Netflix's Bollywood equivalent, Eros International Plc (EROS)? I think we could see the stock quadrupling in value as increasing numbers of people all over the world are forced to stay home to prevent coronavirus contagion.

I note, however, that Eros International has seen its fair share of controversy around management strategy and the accuracy of its accounting methods. This one may be for risk-embracing readers only, in my view." - source Investopedia

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

€1.50 for 159 litres of oil.

Now 5 cents! Oil is like a hot potato today!

Lex Luthor

I cant wait to order my oil for the heating in a couple of weeks and they tell me they will pay me €50 to take 500l from them

littlemac1980

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

@Littlemac...let's just say Ethical corporate reporting wouldn't be one of their best qualities...I understand if they're listed on US exchanges they have to follow certain standards...but I would be still vary of them...

"So what better time than to look into what might be termed Netflix's Bollywood equivalent, Eros International Plc (EROS)? I think we could see the stock quadrupling in value as increasing numbers of people all over the world are forced to stay home to prevent coronavirus contagion.

I note, however, that Eros International has seen its fair share of controversy around management strategy and the accuracy of its accounting methods. This one may be for risk-embracing readers only, in my view." - source Investopedia

Well I know for a long time I had heard from various sources (Indian friends and colleagues included) that Bollywood was “on-par” with Hollywood and would soon be far beyond it.

Finally got a around to watching a few of the “Triple A” titles last year. Some select titles with the biggest names. It’s an eye opener to say the least. The film budgets may be comparable to Hollywood blockbusters, but the product (I.e. the production value) is really not great. I would say most of what I saw from 2017-2018 Bollywood blockbusters are about the same quality as “Commando” (If you recall the movie with Arnie, circa 1986 I believe)

Thing is, if you are spending 100’s of millions of dollars on production then that’s just not possible as production companies earn their money and equipment, expertise, fx, post production process and editing scale up accordingly.

Obviously a different industry but still not a particularly good litmus test IMO

voluntary

contracts showing negative value now? WTF?

roosterman71

Anyone recommending an oil stock to invest in during this collapse?

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

contracts showing negative value now? WTF?

-35 USD at the the moment.

I actually have no idea what it means in practice. What happens if you place an order to “purchase” at that price?

greenfield21

All the big all companies are well of there lows of a few weeks back so it's probably to late. Shell, chevron bp and ixc etf all up. I think uso is a fund that invests in oil directly that may give you some exposure. With all the negatively around oil storage and the may contract expiring tomorrow can't say I'm surprised about - .

littlemac1980

Bob24 wrote: »

-35 USD at the the moment.

I actually have no idea what it means in practice. What happens if you place an order to “purchase” at that price?

Think they hand you the keys? Lol

Harpon

Bob24 wrote: »

-35 USD at the the moment.

I actually have no idea what it means in practice. What happens if you place an order to “purchase” at that price?

This was the deal of a lifetime and yet no one could take advantage as there was no where to store it, sickening

voluntary

Bob24 wrote: »

-35 USD at the the moment.

I actually have no idea what it means in practice. What happens if you place an order to “purchase” at that price?

I'm tempted to try, but I suspect there's a catch somewhere and no free money.


Woud I need to collect the physical OIL?

Bob24

This is why people thinking they'll make big money with oil ETFs should be careful :https://www.barrons.com/articles/major-oil-etf-shifts-investments-as-market-turmoil-builds-51587397035

Basically the ETFs are filled with future contracts, and when the expiring contracts need to be rolled-over for later ones as the ETF can't take physical delivery, they can inccure large losses doing this at times when demand is low: the market knows is can pressure holders of contracts expiring shortly and who don't have the capability to take delivery into lowering their prices. So in effect every month the ETF is losing significant amounts money to handle that transition to newer contracts which is a net less for investors in that ETF.

voluntary

so, if you're left with a contract which expires, you are obliged to accept the physical delivery??

Bob24

voluntary wrote: »

I'm tempted to try, but I suspect there's a catch somewhere and no free money.


Woud I need to collect the physical OIL?

If you own the contract at the time it expires, as far as I know yes you are expected to take physical delivery (no idea how that's supposed to work in practice though, nor about what happens if you can't take delivery).

But what I am wondering is whether you can actually buy them on a trading platform and with a negative price and whether you will actually have your account credited rather that debited when the order gets executed?? (I kind if suspect us individual investors would be blocked from making those trades as it would create complicated situations)

voluntary

It's a really interesting use case. Unbelievable.
I have a feeling this will have great repercussions on the general market. The losses will trickle down the economy as the financial world is so interconnected.

greenfield21

Bob24 wrote: »

This is why people thinking they'll make big money with oil ETFs should be careful :https://www.barrons.com/articles/major-oil-etf-shifts-investments-as-market-turmoil-builds-51587397035

Basically the ETFs are filled with future contracts, and when the expiring contracts need to be rolled-over for later ones as the ETF can't take physical delivery, they can inccure large losses doing this at times when demand is low: the market knows is can pressure holders of contracts expiring shortly and who don't have the capability to take delivery into lowering their prices. So in effect every month the ETF is losing significant amounts money to handle that transition to newer contracts which is a net less for investors in that ETF.

Annoying that's a subscriber article, but does that uso stock not sell its future position long before the contract expires onto the following month. Considering the huge inflows to uso over the last whil and that they also have no storage and are desperate to sell maybe they are responsible for todays broken market.

Bob24

greenfield21 wrote: »

Annoying that's a subscriber article, but does that uso stock not sell its future position long before the contract expires onto the following month.

The article says from now on they will start rolling over some of their contracts earlier.

But I think there is a catch: the ETF is supposed to track the spot price of oil, not speculation on its future price. And the earlier they get rid of their contracts to replace them by others with longer expiry date, the more tracking errors they have vs the actual spot price.

PS: if you go to the US yahoo finance homepage you should see a link to the full article for free.