Share Picks 2020

all about the mane

Think oil contract expires tonight so will have a better indication of price tomorrow

Bob24

all about the mane wrote: »

Think oil contract expires tonight so will have a better indication of price tomorrow

I think what’s happening right now is probably giving us a better idea of the current oil market than Jun 20 future contracts, because contracts expiring today are reflective of prices based on actual current offer and demand.

In normal situations the expiring contracts would have a similar price to the new ones as someone would be happy to take delivery at that same price.

I think what the negative prices are telling us is that literally no one is interested in paying to take delivery of oil at the moment. I.e. the market isn’t even able to price oil because there is no demand for it.

Shedite27

That's mad what's happening with the oil. CNBC coverage seem to think whoever owns those options/shares at 2pm tomorrow, will have the recieve the physical oil. So the lads who were hoping to sell the options at any cost earlier, and now negative, meaning they'll pay someone to take all that oil off their hands. Everywhere in the world is full right now (no planes/cars using the fuel) so nobody can possibly fulfill that obligation. So no idea what happens tomorrow when someone is stuck with the stock. What can they literally do?

Of course this all goes back to the OPEC quarraling, countries haven't cutdown production in line with the cutdown in oil usage

voluntary

Yeah, I wonder what's the penalty for not fulfilling the contract obligation. There will be tons of people unable to take the physical delivery tomorrow.

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

12.5% now, maybe there was more going on than the proxy war?

Only recent news I can see is that they were offering a one day sale on Saturday (online only), maybe it’s due to their moving sales to online only and they see a good return on that?

Re GameStop, up 20% now!

Dots1982

A dumb question maybe but why do they keep pumping oil out of the ground if there’s no where to put it?

Bob24

Dots1982 wrote: »

A dumb question maybe but why do they keep pumping oil out of the ground if there’s no where to put it?

You can’t just flick a switch to turn it off and back on. It takes a while and costs money.

Plus basically no country wants to be the one reducing production and potentially losing market shares to others.

kaymin

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Does anyone know how India’s accounting practices compare to western standards?

It’s something I would be anxious to find out in advance if investing in an Indian business. Particularly one reporting it is highly successful.

I’m sure most here are aware of the recent issues with Luckin Coffee in China. Often people think they are comparing apples with apples when in fact you are holding a bunch of grapes.

They are audited by Grant Thornton and apply IFRS. They're merging with a US private company with most of the key management positions being taken up by personnel from the US company.

Today was pure manipulation but a good opportunity to buy cheap shares imo.

Mad_maxx

roosterman71 wrote: »

Anyone recommending an oil stock to invest in during this collapse?

no obvious connection , the oil stocks are 50% above the lows of the year , they overshot wildly back in march

kaymin

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

EROs down 10%, be careful guys...I Understand India has huge population...but it's very hard to monetize those free subscribers... and they'll be competing with Netflix, Amazon and dozens of local channels.

They have 26m paying subscribers. They could monetize the 190m non-paying subscribers by advertising but they chose not to do that because they are the midst of a land-grab and no adverts is a selling point

kaymin

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

@Littlemac...let's just say Ethical corporate reporting wouldn't be one of their best qualities...I understand if they're listed on US exchanges they have to follow certain standards...but I would be still vary of them...

"So what better time than to look into what might be termed Netflix's Bollywood equivalent, Eros International Plc (EROS)? I think we could see the stock quadrupling in value as increasing numbers of people all over the world are forced to stay home to prevent coronavirus contagion.

I note, however, that Eros International has seen its fair share of controversy around management strategy and the accuracy of its accounting methods. This one may be for risk-embracing readers only, in my view." - source Investopedia

Shorts arguments were proven false. Clean audit opinion was issued from Grant Thornton + passed due diligence from STX, since the Hindenburg accusations were made.

Bob Harris

kaymin wrote: »

They are audited by Grant Thornton and apply IFRS. They're merging with a US private company with most of the key management positions being taken up by personnel from the US company.

Today was pure manipulation but a good opportunity to buy cheap shares imo.

I hope you're not insinuating that the guys in the US are all honest joes!

kaymin

Bob Harris wrote: »

I hope you're not insinuating that the guys in the US are all honest joes!

Far from it, but perception is half the battle and India isn't perceived to have the same standards of corporate governance as elsewhere.

Fred Cryton

Pinsnbushings wrote: »

Apologies in advance guys probably the wrong thread, wondering what would be considered a decent return on investment spread betting? Started last week fully in the knowledge I'd be a Millionaire now with the market meltdown alas that's not the case.. Not as easy to hold your nerve when you see the figures flying up and down on the screen..

Just so you know, a 90:90:90 rule applies to spread betting. That is, 90% of people lose 90% of their money within 90 days :-)


So hope you know what you're doing!

XMG

XMG wrote: »

...I’ve no intentions of investing in them myself, day trading oil futures is keeping me happy)

That was quite a day, made a small fortune on the June /CL futures short. Don’t think they are finished so will be watching carefully...

dashcamdanny

What are your thoughts on Exxon? I bought some last week already. But think it may have further to dip.

Pinsnbushings

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Just so you know, a 90:90:90 rule applies to spread betting. That is, 90% of people lose 90% of their money within 90 days :-)


So hope you know what you're doing!

It's become quite clear I haven't a clue, I'm well on my way to full filling that rule at this stage.. My only fear now is if I withdraw what's left of my account is what way the big deficit between the transactions in and out will be viewed by the bank, when looking for a mortgage..
The theory was simple take advantage of market going down with the spread bet account, close it and put profits into pension fund or etf etc by end of the year..
I was too slow though and missed the big dip and now I've been betting really without any idea what I'm at.

80s Child

Pinsnbushings wrote: »

It's become quite clear I haven't a clue, I'm well on my way to full filling that rule at this stage.. My only fear now is if I withdraw what's left of my account is what way the big deficit between the transactions in and out will be viewed by the bank, when looking for a mortgage..
The theory was simple take advantage of market going down with the spread bet account, close it and put profits into pension fund or etf etc by end of the year..
I was too slow though and missed the big dip and now I've been betting really without any idea what I'm at.

As someone who has been a long time lurker on this thread, and I'm talking 2-3 years probably, and still hasn't entered the game, I appreciate your level of honesty! And this is exactly the reason I've never gotten involved!

The 90:90:90 rule is pretty daunting

Bob Harris

dashcamdanny wrote: »

What are your thoughts on Exxon? I bought some last week already. But think it may have further to dip.

The dividend looks tasty but they borrowed 8 billion last week, demand has collapsed for product as has the price for oil so it's hard to make a case that the price will recover and they can maintain the dividend.

retalivity

Anyone's Degiro account going a bit haywire?
Would be great if I could actually sell at this price....

Kilboor

retalivity wrote: »

Anyone's Degiro account going a bit haywire?
Would be great if I could actually sell at this price....

Nice steady gains there, keep it up and you might be able to retire early.

Bob Harris

F**k this - I had 293 Trillion at close of business yesterday and I'm down to zero!

breadmonster

retalivity wrote: »

Anyone's Degiro account going a bit haywire?
Would be great if I could actually sell at this price....

sell sell sell that aphria stock nice profits

Shedite27

kaymin wrote: »

They have 26m paying subscribers. They could monetize the 190m non-paying subscribers by advertising but they chose not to do that because they are the midst of a land-grab and no adverts is a selling point

I had a dig into them are read through their acquisition presentation. The only thing that I'm concerned about is how they quantify subscribers. Wikipedia tells me they include people on free trials in their subscribers... "Total paid subscribers may include those who are on a paid, free-trial or via minimum guarantee as long as a method of payment has been provided."

I had a nibble at about $3 yesterday, I'll give it a year or two

voluntary

Keeping to the 'buy rumor sell the news' rule, I wouldn't put more money on 'pandemic' stock which already skyrocketed right now (like Netflix, zoom, gaming, etc).

When ready, I'll be hunting cheap, destroyed stocks ready which may thrive after the pandemic, not during the pandemic, and then hold long term.

Not yet though, not yet. I'm near certain we're near the peak of a BULL TRAP right now and patience will be rewarded.

voluntary

Brent tanking today.
Crude June contracts tanking today.
The oil market is done and busted.

Geopolitics effect will surely be significant. Oil-rich countries are f..ed right now. We had oil wars in the past, people killing each other over OIL and today nobody wants it. I can't even think about how this one can play out.

breadmonster

voluntary wrote: »

Brent tanking today.
Crude June contracts tanking today.
The oil market is done and busted.

Geopolitics effect will surely be significant. Oil-rich countries are f..ed right now. We had oil wars in the past, people killing each other over OIL and today nobody wants it. I can't even think about how this one can play out.

One energy company goes bust creates a bank run, saudis and china buy up new york and wallstreet we all end up slaves to rent seekers.

just joking kinda

manonboard

voluntary wrote: »

Brent tanking today.
Crude June contracts tanking today.
The oil market is done and busted.

Geopolitics effect will surely be significant. Oil-rich countries are f..ed right now. We had oil wars in the past, people killing each other over OIL and today nobody wants it. I can't even think about how this one can play out.

I might be naive and too optimistic, but hopefully with such a low value.. It might incline a certain country to not go to so many wars in countries with the resources.

The flip side unfortunately, is countries who depend on the revenue will get desperate..and turmoil is not likely to be peaceful in the beginning..Though it appears a curse for many countries to be rich in oil.

Overall it might provide a stimulus to economic recovery. Cheap energy is a corner stone..

(im an amateur at the best, my opinion has no education)

Ekels

voluntary wrote: »

Keeping to the 'buy rumor sell the news' rule, I wouldn't put more money on 'pandemic' stock which already skyrocketed right now (like Netflix, zoom, gaming, etc).

When ready, I'll be hunting cheap, destroyed stocks ready which may thrive after the pandemic, not during the pandemic, and then hold long term.

Not yet though, not yet. I'm near certain we're near the peak of a BULL TRAP right now and patience will be rewarded.

Any ideas on the post-pandemic stocks? What will people get to doing in September when they've exhausted their Spotify and Netflix contents- actually, Netflix is easier to exhaust than Spotify so I can see Netflix subscriptions going on hold quicker than Spotify ones.

In September, if everything went back to normal, I know I will exercise more outdoors (Columbia and Nike?), travel more (Southwest Airlines) and eat out more (McDonalds). Southwest appears to have taken the biggest dip in share price from that group.



I had a nibble on Spotify on the basis that their business model and profit and loss is very straight-forward. The earn a gross margin of 25% of revenue and the more variable operating expenses get shaved off of that. I'm hoping that the margin will be greater due to increased sales and that the operating expenses will have reduced. The share price at present is in line with what it was when the earnings were announced for 2018 and 2019 in early February of 2019 and 2020.

Bob24

manonboard wrote: »

I might be naive and too optimistic, but hopefully with such a low value.. It might incline a certain country to not go to so many wars in countries with the resources.

If you are thinking of the US, I wouldn’t be so sure. The US hasn’t been as concerned with remote oil suppliers lately because they now have built their own shale oil industry and are able to produce most of what they need locally. But that industry needs high oil prices to survive (extraction costs are much higher than conventional oil), and it will get decimated if oil prices remain at such low levels. Meaning the US would have to rely and remote suppliers again and thus see a strategic interest again in controlling that supply.