Share Picks 2020

ChuckieEgg

I was thinking the same, just that I feel that the market has priced in this future growth now and that the boat has already sailed. If anything I think we are in another "dotcom" bubble with regards to some of these tech companies which have done well out of the lockdown.
Maybe Baozun Inc. the China equivalent has a bit more room to grow.

ShineOn7

jams100 wrote: »

Bought Tesco shares there. Relatively safe place to store money right now rather than having it resting in a bank account.

Could be a great shout, given that they must have had their biggest revenues in years with all the grocery shopping people have been doing since March

antimatterx

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is there much growth left in Shopify shares?

If you invested in 2015 when they floated at $28 you'd be doing very well. They're at $1000 at the moment

My hunch is that many of those with decent redundancy packages in the next year will try eCommerce and Shopify seem to offer the easiest solution for this

I think there's a very strong chance Amazon will buy them in the next 3 years, they already work together


Thoughts?

I work in development, and Shopify is a huge player. I've known about them for years, but unfortunately I wasn't in a position to invest.

I do feel there there is going to be a big crash in stocks soon. Some of these tech stocks are just ridiculous.

Jim2007

antimatterx wrote: »

I do feel there there is going to be a big crash in stocks soon. Some of these tech stocks are just ridiculous.

Yep, when you know what is behind them and how easily it can be replaced... Especially when you see how cheap it is to scale up on the cloud. I'm not entirely out of the game yet, so I still do performance and attribution analysis for a few asset managers - costs me about 40 bucks a month to run 10 servers!

ShineOn7

antimatterx wrote: »

I do feel there there is going to be a big crash in stocks soon

People have been saying that since March! I thought the same myself until reading a thread on here about it https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058073414

Basically; "TINA" or There Is No Alternative

In other words; Interest rates from banks are so laughably bad that Shares continue to be where many place their money

Kamu

And most tech stocks are piggy backing off of Big tech with their all time highs.

Amazon, Microsoft, Apple.

How can they go anything but up?

It's mad out there, get in, get out, take profits and place those profits somewhere reasonable.

Padre_Pio

Kamu wrote: »

And most tech stocks are piggy backing off of Big tech with their all time highs.

Amazon, Microsoft, Apple.

How can they go anything but up?

It's mad out there, get in, get out, take profits and place those profits somewhere reasonable.

Amazon barely dipped during COVID and it's 30% higher than Feb.
Microsoft is roughly 15% higher than it's pre-COVID peak.
Apple is 20%.

Unreal.

Kickstart1.3

Any thoughts on Volkswagen AG?
Looking at the new ID3 I think its about to really shake up the Electric vehicle market. Its selling for sub €30k which is about €15k less than the tesla 3 and imho its a far better car.

ExMachina1000

Pe ratios are getting to ridiculous over valued levels. What goes up must come down.

Fed reserve have pumped so much money into keeping the show on the road. Literally trillions. Most businesses aren't earning anything to justify price.
Without the big 6 tech stocks the whole thing comes tumbling down

TimeToShine

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Amazon barely dipped during COVID and it's 30% higher than Feb.
Microsoft is roughly 15% higher than it's pre-COVID peak.
Apple is 20%.

Unreal.

To be fair they are the big three, Amazon have seen huge growth in their online platform, streaming service and of course most lucratively corporates moving to cloud based solutions. Corporates are now completely dependent on Microsoft since Cisco's Webex failed to keep up with demand and Zoom has data privacy concerns. Apple are piggybacking off the lost confidence in China and also the same data privacy - rightly so in my opinion - but they also have good products in a world where being connected is more important than ever before.

I'd be more concerned about the other stocks that have been mentioned, the likes of Shopify, Docusign, TTD, who can see their business model replicated overnight with slight tweaks and be blown out of the water.

Padre_Pio

TimeToShine wrote: »

To be fair they are the big three, Amazon have seen huge growth in their online platform, streaming service and of course most lucratively corporates moving to cloud based solutions. Corporates are now completely dependent on Microsoft since Cisco's Webex failed to keep up with demand and Zoom has data privacy concerns. Apple are piggybacking off the lost confidence in China and also the same data privacy - rightly so in my opinion - but they also have good products in a world where being connected is more important than ever before.

I'd be more concerned about the other stocks that have been mentioned, the likes of Shopify, Docusign, TTD, who can see their business model replicated overnight with slight tweaks and be blown out of the water.

It's amazing to think that the end of the world was predicted and seemed to happen back in March, yet here we are a few months later.

I bought 2 Amazon shares maybe two weeks back and they're up 10% :rolleyes:

ShineOn7

TimeToShine wrote: »

I'd be more concerned about the other stocks that have been mentioned, the likes of Shopify, Docusign, TTD, who can see their business model replicated overnight with slight tweaks and be blown out of the water.

One of Shopify's 3 founders is a Billionaire and they seem to have the Marketing budget and resources to outspend any new rival and drive them away

The Chinese rival Baozun Inc that was mentioned does seem to have much more room for growth though

I still think Shopify will absolutely be bought by Amazon in the short to medium future

Kilboor

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Any thoughts on Volkswagen AG?
Looking at the new ID3 I think its about to really shake up the Electric vehicle market. Its selling for sub €30k which is about €15k less than the tesla 3 and imho its a far better car.

Is it though? Is it even confirmed it will be under 30k? Lowest I see is 33k?

The baseline Model 3 does 0-60 in 5.6 seconds. The ID3 performance is 7.7 seconds.
Tesla also upgrade their cars regularly OTA and have a vast charging network and already known real world usage range.

The ID3 is nothing but promises on paper right now. I don't see how it's a better car than the Model 3 or even a leaf right now to be honest, but I stand to be corrected.

And all that said, I'm sure pre orders and sales will be good but long term it's hard to say if it can displace the Model 3

WacoKid

Kilboor wrote: »

Is it though? Is it even confirmed it will be under 30k? Lowest I see is 33k?

The baseline Model 3 does 0-60 in 5.6 seconds. The ID3 performance is 7.7 seconds.
Tesla also upgrade their cars regularly OTA and have a vast charging network and already known real world usage range.

The ID3 is nothing but promises on paper right now. I don't see how it's a better car than the Model 3 or even a leaf right now to be honest, but I stand to be corrected.

And all that said, I'm sure pre orders and sales will be good but long term it's hard to say if it can displace the Model 3

If investing in VOW3 is it not more of an investment in their new MEP platform (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) than any particular car that is built on it.

Kickstart1.3

It will be sub €30 with the current Grants. On top of which you can be sure that any EU stimulus package is going to be heavily geared towards this technology and could see the price even lower.
VW have been slow off the blocks but the MEP chassis allows for several different types of vehicle to be built on with very little modifications.
The 0-60 performance might not beat the tesla 3, you can be sure they will have a GTI version for the "petrol heads".
Either way I think VW as a company now looks good value, and if this ID range could shift cars in the millions which they are well capable of doing.

Ayro up nicely in pre trading.

They've announced a partnership with end user...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ayro-inc-gallery-carts-launch-120000074.html

Thargor

Had a bit of a shoeshine moment at work this week, everybody seemed to discover buying equities on their Revolut apps all of a sudden, lots of NIO and Tesla being bought, lots of piling on to whoever was up in double digits that day (hope they dont discover Wallstreetbets), basically it was the exact same as when they discovered Coinbase and Kraken at the height of the mania a couple of years ago, cue the big crash a couple of weeks later, who knows though.

Nemeses2050

Anything EV related has doubled/tripled in some cases and so has the tech....As someone observed they're trading at unbelievable PE ratios's, it's only a matter of time, they'll come crashing down.

roosterman71

Lex Luthor wrote: »

$SOLO dipped right into my buy zone today after yesterday’s pump

Typically after an exponential pump, you can generally see a retrace fairly soon of 50% of the size of the pump

SOLO opened about $3.2 yesterday and topped @ $5.4 so I was looking at a retrace at approx $4.3

I was tracking SOLO for a while trying to figure out a good entry point. 2 days ago I went in at $4.2 and set a sell order for when it hit $5. That happened sometime this morning and I'm out again with a profit. Just want to say thanks for the tip and analysis.

Nemeses2050

Nasdaq powers to fresh record high as tech stocks rise, no correlation to what's happening in the world.

peterofthebr

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

Nasdaq powers to fresh record high as tech stocks rise, no correlation to what's happening in the world.

.DJI seem to be heading south just when high court ruling regarding Trumps tax returns is out. looks like those automated trading machines had a sell rule if he could not block the release of the tax returns
....there might be a buy rule about to kick in any moment :rolleyes::rolleyes:

mickey15ie

How do you set limit to sell at is this what GTC is for?

Saudades

Thargor wrote: »

Had a bit of a shoeshine moment at work this week, everybody seemed to discover buying equities on their Revolut apps all of a sudden, lots of NIO and Tesla being bought, lots of piling on to whoever was up in double digits that day (hope they dont discover Wallstreetbets), basically it was the exact same as when they discovered Coinbase and Kraken at the height of the mania a couple of years ago, cue the big crash a couple of weeks later, who knows though.

Yes that's us millennials I'm afraid, we are frustrated at 0.01% interest rates in bank accounts.

The advent of trading commission free apps such as Trading 212 that has over 5 million downloads on the Play store, as well as Freetrade in the UK, robinhood in the USA, and with stocks and cryptocurrency being added to Revolut, now it's so easy for Joe Bloggs and myself to casually invest a couple hundred in Tesla or Amazon during half-time of the big game. Of course Revolut and T212 offer fractional shares.

What will the knock on effect be in the real world?

The expensive brokers will likely have to lower their fees to retain their share of the market.

Also the government will have a job to ensure compliance and accuracy. It's not only the Excel record keeping financially savvy investing these days. Can Revenue rely on all the casual Revolut, T212, Degiro traders to accurately and timely file tax returns for their trading.

robman60

Have been going in consistently since this all started back in February. Finished up getting some Berkshire and AT&T today and I'll hold off on adding anything for a bit now. All my buys are long-term so happy to sit through whatever comes.

I think Berkshire is a solid buy at present. If the economy improves, they've got a lot of cyclical banking and finance stocks which would likely benefit. If things get worse, they have that massive cash pile to deploy, and even if things just plod along for a while they have large holdings in some of the most reliable dividends like Coca Cola. The recent purchase isn't exactly innovative and I thought we might see some stock buybacks, but the cash pile is so large I think we could see those too in the coming months.

I'll have a look back in around the end of July as there are a few earnings dates I imagine will be awful so will keep an eye out for any value at that point.

peterofthebr

Just somthing as you get yourself ready to buy- :eek:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-had-35000-in-retirement-savings-in-march-350-trades-later-and-hes-apparently-sitting-on-1-million-2020-07-08?mod=home-page

ShineOn7

peterofthebr wrote: »

Just somthing as you get yourself ready to buy- :eek:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-had-35000-in-retirement-savings-in-march-350-trades-later-and-hes-apparently-sitting-on-1-million-2020-07-08?mod=home-page

Prepare for some serious trading FOMO, courtesy of Reddit’s “WallStreetBets” community

That's as far as I got in that article

Many believe that WallStreetBets is a parody Sub Reddit with Mods who are wind up merchants

positron

peterofthebr wrote: »

Just somthing as you get yourself ready to buy- :eek:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-had-35000-in-retirement-savings-in-march-350-trades-later-and-hes-apparently-sitting-on-1-million-2020-07-08?mod=home-page

I saw that post on reddit yesterday alright. Here's the reddit thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hnk0r9/35k_125m_in_4_months/

Taylor365

robman60 wrote: »

Have been going in consistently since this all started back in February. Finished up getting some Berkshire and AT&T today and I'll hold off on adding anything for a bit now. All my buys are long-term so happy to sit through whatever comes.

I think Berkshire is a solid buy at present. If the economy improves, they've got a lot of cyclical banking and finance stocks which would likely benefit. If things get worse, they have that massive cash pile to deploy, and even if things just plod along for a while they have large holdings in some of the most reliable dividends like Coca Cola. The recent purchase isn't exactly innovative and I thought we might see some stock buybacks, but the cash pile is so large I think we could see those too in the coming months.

I'll have a look back in around the end of July as there are a few earnings dates I imagine will be awful so will keep an eye out for any value at that point.

It's as if you hedged against yourself completely, explaining how you bought a solid, well built company, then bought AT&T!



:pac:

ExMachina1000

peterofthebr wrote: »

Just somthing as you get yourself ready to buy- :eek:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-had-35000-in-retirement-savings-in-march-350-trades-later-and-hes-apparently-sitting-on-1-million-2020-07-08?mod=home-page

For every one of these stories I'd imagine there are 100 that went the opposite way. Saying that fair play to him. I wouldn't have the bottle to throw 35k into stocks. For some reason I prefer to leave my money in a bank. Losing against inflation.

mickey15ie

mickey15ie wrote: »

How do you set limit to sell at is this what GTC is for?

Two different things.


Limit is the min you sell at or max you'll purchase at. Going with market rate buys at the rate at that point in time. Using a limit gives more control, but less certainty on execution.


GTC stands for Good Till Cancelled. Your order will stay open until executed.

supue

If you mean a floor to sell the stocks at, I use stop loss.

Say I own stocks in company A at $1, and I'm worried about minimising losses should they fall, you set a stop loss. The price at which you want to trigger a sale. You're guaranteed execution, however price might drop lower if the order can't be filled at your price. Stop limit does the same, however will only sell at your limit price, so if your order isn't filled, you could end up with a holding despite the price dropping lower.

Choose sell company A, choose stop loss, and the price you want to sell at. Then choose GTC (it stays open for days until the price comes live, even in after market trading). Set your stop loss too close to current trading price, you risk the sell kicking in during a slight dip, so something you need to be conscious of. As the price rises, you can edit your stop loss price higher to lock in profits. You need to cancel your stop loss before you sell your shares otherwise you end up with a short position which De Giro will flag if you're using this.

Lex Luthor

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Going to get some $SPCE and see how that goes and if $SOLO drops into the low $4’s, my limit order will kick in

Both of these are up about 15% in 3 days

July going well so far, time to keep cool and not get carried away

Emotions can kill your common sense and strategy at times. Stick to your plans and take your profits

plasmin

Any views on SQ, is it too expensive to buy.? Its cash app is growing v strong.

What do ye think of the following:-

Putting a not insubstantial (that's relative I know) amount into...

IAG
Lufthansa
Air France/KLM

and be happy to leave there for 3 years or so. I know it's the opposite of diversified and risky on a number of levels

I know there'd be a risk of a pan-am scenario. But, these shares are at a third (approx) of pre Covid prices, and in the medium term (say 3 years) you'd imagine the world would get back to some normality. Risk yes, but the reward could be significant.

in2dark

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What do ye think of the following:-

Putting a not insubstantial (that's relative I know) amount into...

IAG
Lufthansa
Air France/KLM

and be happy to leave there for years or so. I know it's the opposite of diversified and risky on a number of levels

I know there'd be a risk of a pan-am scenario. But, these shares are at a third (approx) of pre Covid prices, and in the medium term (say 3 years) you'd imagine the world would get back to some normality. Risk yes, but the reward could be significant.

Im doing the same with IAG only from the 3 above as well as SHELL

Kamu

in2dark wrote: »

Im doing the same with IAG only from the 3 above as well as SHELL

Which exchange are you guys looking at, British or Madrid?

British has more volume but who knows what will happen to the pound.

antimatterx

One to watch might be Snowflake. They're a cloud computing firm who should be going public soon.

Kamu

Kamu wrote: »

Which exchange are you guys looking at, British or Madrid?

British has more volume but who knows what will happen to the pound.

Madrid to reduce currency exposure. The prices pretty much track each other though taking fx into account. Otherwise arbitrage would be possible (I think).

in2dark

Kamu wrote: »

Which exchange are you guys looking at, British or Madrid?

British has more volume but who knows what will happen to the pound.

Unfortunately uk as i do it on t212 and the madrid listing is not available for IAG

in2dark

in2dark wrote: »

Unfortunately uk as i do it on t212 and the madrid listing is not available for IAG

You could always open a Degiro specifically for this (considering it's relatively long term) if your own currency is in euro.

in2dark

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You could always open a Degiro specifically for this (considering it's relatively long term) if your own currency is in euro.

I have degiro but i prefer the free version :-)

Anyway i believe the currency movement will not be significant in the long run plus i expect the price to adjust accordingly due to arbritrage traders

Nemeses2050

I'm in IAG and TUI AG both in Euro's to avoid currency fluctuations

Nemeses2050

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I'm in IAG and TUI AG both in Euro's to avoid currency fluctuations

Are you prepared for a long term view and would you be willing to put substantial funds (relative to your amount available to invest) in that position or would you have a day trader outlook?



Trying to see if I'm missing something ...

Nemeses2050

I wouldn't call myself day-trader nor i'm in for long-term...probably short-mid term 3-12 months.

my general rule is not to invest more than 10-15% in one position.

Nemeses2050

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

I wouldn't call myself day-trader nor i'm in for long-term...probably short-mid term 3-12 months.

my general rule is not to invest more than 10-15% in one position.

Thanks. Appreciate your take on it. I'm not adverse to taking the gains in 3-12 months

Galego

Deleted User wrote: »

Madrid to reduce currency exposure. The prices pretty much track each other though taking fx into account. Otherwise arbitrage would be possible (I think).

The danger with AIG in Spain is that the government may need to step in and bail them out. I reckon that share price is likely to go under 2eur once they announce results, which are a disaster. AIG in Spain makes most of its money from transatlantic flights which are currently not operating.

Good luck with them anyway!

Galego

Galego wrote: »

The danger with AIG in Spain is that the government may need to step in and bail them out. I reckon that share price is likely to go under 2eur once they announce results, which are a disaster. AIG in Spain makes most of its money from transatlantic flights which are currently not operating.

Good luck with them anyway!

You're right about the earnings. Hadn't thought about full nationalisation. Eek.

Shedite27

plasmin wrote: »

Any views on SQ, is it too expensive to buy.? Its cash app is growing v strong.

Not at all, I've been adding regularly this year, would happily add more at this price. They're moving in the right direction

Galego

Deleted User wrote: »

You're right about the earnings. Hadn't thought about full nationalisation. Eek.

Obviously if you are willing to take the gamble and pay off it will give you a nice return in X months.

But I'd wait for results and let the price share sink. It still has a bit to go down.

Galego

Deleted User wrote: »

You're right about the earnings. Hadn't thought about full nationalisation. Eek.

Also they are to buy Air Europa, another struggling Spanish airline. I dont know yet whether that is good or bad news.