Share Picks 2020

plasmin

Pure Extract IPO is expected in Aug

https://www.psychedelicfinance.com/articles/pure-extracts-corp-ipo-round

DYOR

OwlsZat

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I've been involved on that site for over 20yrs and know a lot of people there in fairly knowlegable positions

I'm not there now, had my fill of the place and seen so many changes there.

some of the equipment that was bought for the early facilities startup is still sitting in storage, it should have been on site by Feb

That being said, they could be wrong but I'm inclined to believe them

Theres no doubt the frequency of node replacement has slowed and they are marginally behind in the die density race. Don't agree TSMC will run the fab. That would be bonkers IMHO.

roosterman71

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

Bass Reeves

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

I think you would want to be brave to buy airlines at present. Another issue is that bigger countries are going to bale out there flag carriers. I cannot see am advantage to being super efficient as an airline if flag carriers are baled out

ShineOn7

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Bob Harris

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Less than expected and what has them down are the covid quarantine restrictions coming back into force.

Jim2007

roosterman71 wrote: »

A lot of the airline stocks are on a down this morning. Might be an opportunity in Ryanair and Easyjet

At the best of times airlines are financial basket cases, with a long list of chapter 11 and bankruptcy to boot...

Given the accepted return on equities to about 5 - 8%, what is your required premium for taking on the additional risk?

roosterman71

I was in Ryanair at 8s, and out at 12. Might dabble again if it dips below 10 for a small punt. I don't think they'll dip back to 8 again as the initial Covid shock has been managed and from now the restrictions will be on a smaller scale where it's unlikely (I hope) the whole continent will lockdown. Ryanair can then operate in the other regions, albeit with vastly reduced bums on seats as they are now.

heffo500

Kainos Group up 20% on the back of reinstated the dividend, expects annual revenue and adjusted profit to be well ahead of current consensus forecasts.

I recommended this stock in the Stock Picks 2019 on the 24th of December.

Kilboor

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

Priced in

littlevillage

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think you would want to be brave to buy airlines at present. Another issue is that bigger countries are going to bale out there flag carriers. I cannot see am advantage to being super efficient as an airline if flag carriers are baled out

By that logic would IAG not now be a compelling investment?

BA and Iberia getting government bail-outs from UK and Spain respectively, Aer Lingus will probably get some kind of a sop from Ireland too. Very low P/E and a 8% fall today to sweeten the deal.

Bob24

Kilboor wrote: »

Priced in

Yes surely everyone was expecting bad numbers, but I still find the price very optimistic.

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

So according to the market Ryanair has a slightly better future profits outlook today than it did a year ago. I really struggle to see this myself.

I can easily agree they are one of the better picks in the airline industry, but the future of their line of business is very unclear, with the best case scenario being a slow recovery of passenger traffic over several months/years before they return to their peak (that is if the virus concerns mostly disappear in the next few months) and the worst case scenario being that it never recovers those levels for the foreseeable future (if the virus remains a major concern for years, and also with a risk of green legislation restricting air travel or making it more expensive - with Europe probably being the most likely continent to see this type of legislation).

Kilboor

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes surely everyone was expecting bad numbers, but I still find the price very optimistic.

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

So according to the market Ryanair has a slightly better future profits outlook today than it did a year ago. I really struggle to see this myself.

I can easily agree they are one of the better picks in the airline industry, but the future of their line of business is very unclear, with the best case scenario being a slow recovery of passenger traffic over several months/years before they return to their peak (that is if the virus concerns mostly disappear in the next few months) and the worst case scenario being that it never recovers those levels for the foreseeable future (if the virus remains a major concern for years, and also with a risk of green legislation restricting air travel or making it more expensive - with Europe probably being the most likely continent to see this type of legislation).

There's a lot of variables to consider with Ryanair. Competition is a big one. I think Ryanair will always be in a better position than other low cost airlines who are on the brink of bankruptcy. Less competition means more business means higher inelastic prices means more money in the long run.


I honestly think it's as simple as that but that's of course only looking at one, big, scenario.

ShineOn7

Bob24 wrote: »

Right now it is 10.41, and exactly one year ago it was 9.88.

The stock market since March in a nutshell

Jim2007

Kilboor wrote: »

I honestly think it's as simple as that but that's of course only looking at one, big, scenario.

It seems though that demand for night trains in mainland Europe is raising as people prefer it over cheap flights, particularly the fact that you can get a cabin to yourself and your loved ones....

there are simpler things to predict....

jams100

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The stock market since March in a nutshell

Same with Diageo.
This time last year 32.40
Today 27.90

Only down about 14% despite pubs/nightclubs being shut

Bob24

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The stock market since March in a nutshell

On average indeed, good point :-)

But there is huge disparity to make up that average.

For exemple Boeing lost half of its value within that timeframe while Amazon increased it by 50%.

I am not saying Ryanair is a Boeing, but I find it hard to describe it as closer to Amazon than it is from Boeing.

Bob24

Kilboor wrote: »

There's a lot of variables to consider with Ryanair. Competition is a big one. I think Ryanair will always be in a better position than other low cost airlines who are on the brink of bankruptcy. Less competition means more business means higher inelastic prices means more money in the long run.

Absolutely agree that such crisis should in theory wipe-out the weakest links and leave survivors with more market dominance when thing stabilise (same could be said about the hotel industry).

Having said that there are 2 caveats I can think of:
- Rightly or wrongly, many European governments don’t want to let national airlines disappear or to let Ryanair take over more market shares, so they will throw public money at some of those weaker links to keep them afloat.
- Even if some of the competition disappears, passenger air traffic still needs to grow back much higher than current levels for Ryanair to look more attractive than it was a year ago. And if/when this will happen is literally impossible to predict at this stage.

Jim2007 wrote: »

there are simpler things to predict....

Yes, while I agree Ryanair has many cards in its hand to benefit if/when traffic picks-up to a decent level, that uncertainty is what I am concerned about. The path to profits seemed a lot clearer and more certain a year ago that it does today. There is a path but it is less certain and that uncertainty is what IMO the market is not pricing.

ExMachina1000

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ryanair announce a €185 million loss for first quarter of 2020, they only drop 5% and are still above 10 euros a stock

Or is the day still very young on this one and it'll hit €8 by COB?

They have a 4 billion euro cash pile and have made sweeping cost savings.

Medium term they are safe as houses.

helimachoptor

AMD, bought at 40 USD, up at 70 now, been a good return

Kilboor

Providence

Kilboor

Kilboor wrote: »

Providence

Still no. I kept an eye on it for a while and not liquid enough. If in for the long haul could be worth a punt (or maybe a fiver )

Kilboor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Still no. I kept an eye on it for a while and not liquid enough. If in for the long haul could be worth a punt (or maybe a fiver )

Big yes from me, picked up more today at 4.90 and I'm done now. Would liked to have thrown 500 more at it but doesn't look like it'll hit the 4s again

OwlsZat

plasmin wrote: »

Pure Extract IPO is expected in Aug

https://www.psychedelicfinance.com/articles/pure-extracts-corp-ipo-round

DYOR

How do you buy shares in an IPO?

Irishder

See Glenview bought a significant share of $BHC, i have a small holding and currently red but hopefully this will kick start it.

Lex Luthor

helimachoptor wrote: »

AMD, bought at 40 USD, up at 70 now, been a good return

thats brilliant

results out next week I think

One More Toy

Might as well get in on the fun!

My biggest gains to date have been visa and mastercard, both up 100+%. Can't remember exactly when I bought them

Was considering AMD back in the low 20s, kicking myself now I didn't take a punt

Next buy will probably be Draftkings

fjon

Considering getting rid of Netflix while I've made a small profit. Can't see any reason they would go any time in the near future given their revenue is mostly subscriptions.Anyone holding out?

Shedite27

Netflix is a strange one. Their current results in theory should be a knockout - reduced costs (as they can't produce anything) and massive new subscriptions (as people have nothing better to do). They haven't a hope of matching it anytime soon.

They're a staple good now, no danger of regressing IMO, but can't imagine them growing at this rate ever again. Not sure what that does to the share price, given it's had a big jump recently.

fjon

I think they may have had a modest bump in subs in March/ April, but not all that massive given most people who would want one already had a sub. And yes they are saving money now as there isn't much content being made, but that money will be spent once things get back to normal. Their recent earnings report certainly wasn't good.
I don't understand why the spike around July 13th, but I've a feeling that's as high as it will go for the near future.

One More Toy

AMD up 10% after hours, where's the crying emoji on here!

Cute Hoor

One More Toy wrote: »

AMD up 10% after hours, where's the crying emoji on here!

I sold AMD at $3.60, $2.72 & $2.36 - at yesterday's closing price ($67.61) they would now be worth $202,830

Bob Harris

Cute Hoor wrote: »

I sold AMD at $3.60, $2.72 & $2.36 - at yesterday's closing price ($67.61) they would now be worth $202,830

One More Toy wrote: »

AMD up 10% after hours, where's the crying emoji on here!

I think Cute Hoor has used them all.

Lex Luthor

the person that tipped me off to AMD back in 2018 when they were @ $12, got in at $4, and it wasnt a drop in the ocean either he put in. Recently got out @ $62

talking 7 figures now in about 3-4yrs

Patience is key

Cute Hoor

Not great at the sums either - at yesterday's closing price ($67.61) they would now be worth $338,050

Kamu

I really need to start looking at these tips people are giving. Though the big winners are rare and few between (with many losers in there).

Kilboor

Kamu wrote: »

I really ne d to start looking at these tips people are giving. Though they big winners are rare and few between (with many losers in there).

Buy low sell high :cool:

voluntary

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Not great at the sums either - at yesterday's closing price ($67.61) they would now be worth $338,050

You'd have to emigrate or pay near €100.000 tax on exit.

Shedite27

voluntary wrote: »

You'd have to emigrate or pay near €100.000 tax on exit.

Shure it's not really worth the €200k profit he'd walk away with really

Kilboor

voluntary wrote: »

You'd have to emigrate or pay near €100.000 tax on exit.

Isle of Man :cool:

Kilboor

Kilboor wrote: »

Buy low sell high :cool:

I might just try that. Cant hurt, the whole buy high sell low hasn't been working out too well.

Kamu

Deleted User wrote: »

I might just try that. Cant hurt, the whole buy high sell low hasn't been working out too well.

Don't know what you're talking about, it's easy. I made a whopping €500 this year. I think I should start a consultancy.

DutchYurt

What are peoples thoughts on IAG - with the announcement of the share dilution of 2.5BN I have a strong feeling their Q2 2020 results today will be awful considering the months being included.

My stock pick is Activision - should soar in the Q2 results as it did with Q1. Keeping an eye on Zynga too after their acquisition

Cute Hoor

voluntary wrote: »

You'd have to emigrate or pay near €100.000 tax on exit.

Yea the tax would have been a bummer, I'm glad now I sold early

Lex Luthor

now is the time to be buying USD stocks if you can find a good one with the weak dollar

Any gains I've made in the last 2 months in EUR value are on paper not there as I have an ameritrade account and its in USD

But I see it as an opportunity to send EUR to the account now and if the dollar strenthens against the EUR it will swing back in my favour

by the way, the guy that tipped me to AMD back in 2018, has said he is seriously looking at $UMC now. He doesnt mess around when it comes to investing in these companies (he's mentioning putting 5 figures into them now), he has religoulsy stuck to 4-5 in that sector for years and has done very well from them

DutchYurt

Lex Luthor wrote: »

now is the time to be buying USD stocks if you can find a good one with the weak dollar

Any gains I've made in the last 2 months in EUR value are on paper not there as I have an ameritrade account and its in USD

But I see it as an opportunity to send EUR to the account now and if the dollar strenthens against the EUR it will swing back in my favour

by the way, the guy that tipped me to AMD back in 2018, has said he is seriously looking at $UMC now. He doesnt mess around when it comes to investing in these companies, he has religoulsy stuck to 4-5 in that sector for years and has done very well from them

I've gotten caught the other way invested heavily about 2 months ago and from a currency perspective im down about 1k.

DutchYurt

Lex Luthor wrote: »

by the way, the guy that tipped me to AMD back in 2018, has said he is seriously looking at $UMC now. He doesnt mess around when it comes to investing in these companies (he's mentioning putting 5 figures into them now), he has religoulsy stuck to 4-5 in that sector for years and has done very well from them

UMC up 12% after hours, missed your tip by a day!

Lex Luthor

Lex Luthor wrote: »

by the way, the guy that tipped me to AMD back in 2018, has said he is seriously looking at $UMC now. He doesnt mess around when it comes to investing in these companies (he's mentioning putting 5 figures into them now), he has religoulsy stuck to 4-5 in that sector for years and has done very well from them

Spiked based on this... https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/27/why-united-microelectronics-stock-skyrocketed-toda.aspx

DutchYurt

DutchYurt wrote: »

UMC up 12% after hours, missed your tip by a day!

I've placed an order for 1,500 shares at $3.70. Lower than what it'll open at, but approx $.40 off its recent spike.

Shedite27

Shopify blew the earnings out of the water. Shares up 8% in pre market. Bought one at $330 in March, big regrets that I didn't pick up more. At this stage most of the people who have online shops on Shopify would have been better off just buying Shopify shares