Cheltenham 2020

Slattsy

I see Douvan could go straight to Cheltenham.

Anyone give him a chance? Bit of a risk, considering he's so fragile. But 10s or similar is probably a fair price. NRNB obviously!

Dr. Bre

Slattsy wrote: »

I see Douvan could go straight to Cheltenham.

Anyone give him a chance? Bit of a risk, considering he's so fragile. But 10s or similar is probably a fair price. NRNB obviously!

Which race is he going for?

spuddiesal

Slattsy wrote: »

JLT or RSA? That is the question.

I like him myself, but for the RSA. But i've a feeling he'll go JLT.

Arkle: Bapuame, Tornado flyer, Cash Back
Marsh/JLT, Melon, Laurina, Easy Game
RSA: Faugheen & Allaho
4 Miler: Carefully Selected, Brahma bull (if fit)

Possibly swapping Laurina with Allaho

stretchaq

spuddiesal wrote: »

Arkle: Bapuame, Tornado flyer, Cash Back
Marsh/JLT, Melon, Laurina, Easy Game
RSA: Faugheen & Allaho
4 Miler: Carefully Selected, Brahma bull (if fit)

Possibly swapping Laurina with Allaho

They keep saying melon wants further, I can see him in arkle with the comments!!! Maybe a swap with tornado flyer you never know with willie very hard to back ante post

Andrew00

I'd say Allaho will go the for RSA. Crying out for the trip

famagusta

Is there any chance Carefully Selected goes to the RSA? He must have a savage chance there, if he's to run in the 4 miler he has to have run in a 3m chase I think, which he hasnt yet.

stretchaq

famagusta wrote: »

Is there any chance Carefully Selected goes to the RSA? He must have a savage chance there, if he's to run in the 4 miler he has to have run in a 3m chase I think, which he hasnt yet.

No chance he goes for RSA will run over 3 miles in lepordstown, anyone have any thoughts on stayers have rewatched last years race there I think sam spinner is just to close to him(pp),, Summerville boy maybe?? I really like penhill if he got back to form but 16s is a big if, notice a few pound coming for Bacardys lately can’t seem him winning unless it’s a bog though, I can’t back apples jade don’t think she was even back the last day times were shocking

Slattsy

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Which race is he going for?

CC

akelly02

stretchaq wrote: »

No chance he goes for RSA will run over 3 miles in lepordstown, anyone have any thoughts on stayers have rewatched last years race there I think sam spinner is just to close to him(pp),, Summerville boy maybe?? I really like penhill if he got back to form but 16s is a big if, notice a few pound coming for Bacardys lately can’t seem him winning unless it’s a bog though, I can’t back apples jade don’t think she was even back the last day times were shocking

pp going away again at the finish . i just think hes a machine

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Im patiently waiting to see if anyone holds a current 33/1 price on that novice chase to nrnb.;)

147 😫

Slattsy

Dallas Des Pictons is after getting absolutely raped by the british handicapper. My long term Close Brothers fancy out the window

NaiveMelodies

Slattsy wrote: »

Dallas Des Pictons is after getting absolutely raped by the british handicapper. My long term Close Brothers fancy out the window

haha, nearly the full shtone

The Mig

12 lbs higher than his irish rating

Slattsy

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

haha, nearly the full shtone

Its no laughing matter!!! :mad:

I'm ringing Joe Duffy.

BoldReason

I mean it was pretty obvious since half of twitter was onto it. I thought they would do well to get him in under 145 tbh

Andrew00

Any thoughts in supasundae for the champion hurdle lads..33s

Slattsy

BoldReason wrote: »

I mean it was pretty obvious since half of twitter was onto it. I thought they would do well to get him in under 145 tbh

BoldReason knew.

laguacamaya

Any of ye enlightened folks tell me which race Honeysuckle will line up in? Thanks.

BoldReason

Slattsy wrote: »

BoldReason knew.

He did.

BoldReason wrote: »

It's quite possible the British handicapper will give him a mark to high imo.

NaiveMelodies

laguacamaya wrote: »

Any of ye enlightened folks tell me which race Honeysuckle will line up in? Thanks.

Champion Hurdle.

RivetingRoger

Mares Hurdle
nailed on

NaiveMelodies

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Mares Hurdle
nailed on

If she wins the Irish Champion there's a 0.0001% chance she goes mares.
She wins the Irish Champion :pac:

Slattsy

BoldReason wrote: »

He did.

But not a feckin stone! The dogs on the street know Irish horses will get a few pounds extra, 6lbs or so, but DDP has been crucified!

Slattsy

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Champion Hurdle.

You hope! :pac:

BoldReason

Slattsy wrote: »

But not a feckin stone! The dogs on the street know Irish horses will get a few pounds extra, 6lbs or so, but DDP has been crucified!

Yes I was referring to being to high to get in. He is rated 144 over hurdles. Its a low blow alright but I'm not surprised.

RivetingRoger

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

If she wins the Irish Champion there's a 0.0001% chance she goes mares.
She wins the Irish Champion :pac:

Apples Jade says Hello................

NaiveMelodies

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Apples Jade says Hello................

.....to Honeysuckle's arse, again?

AJ won't touch Honeysuckle at Leopardstown. Might not even run anyway- have a feeling they might try a different approach with her before Cheltenham.

Sharjah, Klassical Dream and Supasundae all potentially dangerous runners for Honeysuckle though.

Andrew00

City Island is being aimed at the Stayers hurdle, Martin Brasil confirmed today

Slattsy

City Island going for the Stayers. Interesting.

NaiveMelodies

Very interesting, would have thought Champion Hurdle if not chasing.

Andrew00

Take the 16s e/w now if possible

IAMAMORON

I wouldn't be getting to carried away about City island, that looks a very weak renewal of the Ballymore hurdle. Not much has come out of the race.

2nd Champ - looks interesting , but always did
3rd Bright Forecast - no run since
4th Brewinupsatorm - gone chasing 2 wins
5th Sams Profile - 9 lengths and placed in Punchestown. Not out this season.

The rest are 50 yards back , Galvin, Seddon , Easy Game, average enough bunch.

The list goes on.

Notebook came last and was beaten 49 lengths and is now one of the favs for the Arkle.

Outside of the 4 year old races and maybe the bumper, I don't fancy any horse at Cheltenham that hasn't run before Christmas. I am sure that horses pop up that win races there against this statistic, but I would prefer to be backing horses that were sound before Christmas at least.

yaboya1

Well they're right to go back hurdling as he's a woeful jumper of a fence. Not sure why they're going the stayers route though. Doesn't look like he's crying out for 3m to me and the champion is looking pretty open atm. The ballymore has been a good trial for the champion over the years too.

RivetingRoger

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

.....to Honeysuckle's arse, again?

AJ won't touch Honeysuckle at Leopardstown. Might not even run anyway- have a feeling they might try a different approach with her before Cheltenham.

Sharjah, Klassical Dream and Supasundae all potentially dangerous runners for Honeysuckle though.

No....
I am saying you are advicating the same route as AJ for Honeysuckle if it wins he Irish CH
My point being, AJ did, hacked up and look how that went
Honeysuckle should, and will go the Mares and its no penalty kick there either with Beni and Stormy Ireland



Such a shame Gypsy Island is out

RivetingRoger

Stayers Hurdle would be the race for AJ I reckon
Any chance she goes there?
Not saying she would win, but if something were to go wrong with PP, and with Thistlecrack NR, she would be next in line for my fiver

yaboya1

People are getting carried away with Apples Jade (again). The form of that Leopardstown race is atrocious. How many in behind her would you give a prayer to at Cheltenham? None of them imo.

RivetingRoger

I'm not getting carried away with AJ, whatsoever
I am simply looking at the entries thinking what a SH*TE race it is for a championship grade hurdle
Paisley wins laughing at them all things being equal

Johner

Presenting Percy going for the Irish Gold Cup instead of the Galmoy.

yaboya1

Johner wrote: »

Presenting Percy going for the Irish Gold Cup instead of the Galmoy.

He's actually had a proper gold cup prep this year. Should give a better account of himself at the festival, even if he doesn't pick up a win on the way.

shanboghted

Am I mad that I think petit mouchoir could be am ew bet for the champion hurdle at 40's ? Has form in the race and looks close to that form from 2/3 years back over hurdles

stretchaq

shanboghted wrote: »

Am I mad that I think petit mouchoir could be am ew bet for the champion hurdle at 40's ? Has form in the race and looks close to that form from 2/3 years back over hurdles

I would think your mad but maybe if you can get a good price for 4 places, think supasundae is the EW play myself

stretchaq

Would be very keen on conflated for the MARTIN pipe serious word knocking around for him 25/1

stretchaq

Also does anyone have a list or know where I could find a list of horses that are qualified for pertemps can’t find it online??

Andrew00

stretchaq wrote: »

Would be very keen on conflated for the MARTIN pipe serious word knocking around for him 25/1

Guaranteed runner for it?

BumperD

stretchaq wrote: »

Also does anyone have a list or know where I could find a list of horses that are qualified for pertemps can’t find it online??

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/JUMP-RACE-SERIES-2019-20.pdf

And add in the Leopardstown Qualifier race at Christmas

https://www.racingpost.com/results/187/leopardstown/2019-12-28/747870

Top 6 in those your in subject to weights etc

NaiveMelodies

RivetingRoger wrote: »

No....
I am saying you are advicating the same route as AJ for Honeysuckle if it wins he Irish CH
My point being, AJ did, hacked up and look how that went
Honeysuckle should, and will go the Mares and its no penalty kick there either with Beni and Stormy Ireland



Such a shame Gypsy Island is out

Not sure there is any evidence to suggest AJ running in the Irish Champion last year resulted in her poor performance at Cheltenham. There is 0 evidence to suggest the same might happen to Honeysuckle other than the fact she is a she.

Having a glance over the last 22 years(from the Istabraq era), 19 winners of the Irish Champion have gone to the Champion Hurdle.
Ned Kelly and Faugheen got injured and Supasundae went to the Stayers Hurdle.
8 of the 22 runs have resulted in Champion Hurdle wins.
It appears to be 'the perfect trial'.
The worst performance of those, funnily enough, was HDBs Sizing Europe. He went off 2/1 favourite and finished 15th of 16 having suffered an apparent back injury.
No mare has won two grade 1s in open company over a seasonal campaign and gone on to run in the Mares hurdle.

Therein lies my reasoning that Honeysuckle will line up in the Champion Hurdle in March if indeed she gets over the line at Leopardstown.

yaboya1

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

The worst performance of those, funnily enough, was HDBs Sizing Europe. He went off 2/1 favourite and finished 15th of 16 having suffered an apparent back injury.

When looking like he was going to hose up. Given he then went on to win the arkle and the champion chase, it's not unrealistic to think he would have without suffering the injury. That would be 9 winners from 22. Not bad, or like you say, the perfect trial.
To say winning that race is a negative for any potential champion hurdler is complete nonsense, but it's what I've come to expect around here.

RivetingRoger

Min v APT in the Ryanair could be epic
Love both, usually back both
Head scratcher!

Earendil

yaboya1 wrote: »

When looking like he was going to hose up. Given he then went on to win the arkle and the champion chase, it's not unrealistic to think he would have without suffering the injury. That would be 9 winners from 22. Not bad, or like you say, the perfect trial.
To say winning that race is a negative for any potential champion hurdler is complete nonsense, but it's what I've come to expect around here.

So you're always telling us. Plenty of other forums out there.

akelly02

seen somewhwere they reckon its irish champ hurdle then mares hurdle for cheltenham ....i can see that changing after she wins the irish champion handy enough