Property Market 2020

JP100

Summer2020 wrote: »

People thinking they’ll pick up a bargain are going to be disappointed I think. Two out of three properties I was bidding on previously have been taken down off the market. They can afford to sit it out and wait a few years rather than accept low ball offers of asking -10% or so.

You are taking one example and applying it universally. They will be some who will able to sit it out but they will also be some who will not.

Claw Hammer

JP100 wrote: »

You are taking one example and applying it universally. They will be some who will able to sit it out but they will also be some who will not.

There will always be some property which has to be sold. Court ordered sales following divorces or separations, executor sales and bank/receiver sales. These will establish market value for trader uppers, downsizers, investors and first time purchasers.

kevinc565

Summer2020 wrote: »

People thinking they’ll pick up a bargain are going to be disappointed I think. Two out of three properties I was bidding on previously have been taken down off the market. They can afford to sit it out and wait a few years rather than accept low ball offers of asking -10% or so.

I agree, but personally don't think -10% is low ball in this market. Problem is the whole market has ceased up. You won't sell if you can't buy ( unless it's an executor sale) so the market will be in the doldrums for 1-2 years.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

kevinc565 wrote: »

I agree, but personally don't think -10% is low ball in this market. Problem is the whole market has ceased up. You won't sell if you can't buy ( unless it's an executor sale) so the market will be in the doldrums for 1-2 years.

The place I am sale agreed on, they wouldn't give a 1k discount nevermind 10pc. They'd pull the sale immediately.

Knex*

Pablo_Flox wrote: »

I strongly agree.

Im paying 1,600 per month for a 1 bedroom apartment. If I was to delay purchasing a property for 2 years the price of a property would have to drop by 38k+ for me to break even; and if Im going to hold off I have no interest in breaking even, I want to improve on that. I would want the property to drop by at least 70k for it to have been a worthwhile gamble for me. I can not see properties dropping by that much - and even if they do I would expect most house's brought to the market to be the dregs of the barrel. Why would someone sell at a market low if they have even the slightest choice in the matter.

So its full steam ahead for me.

That's not a complete way of looking at it, I think? Might not make a massive difference, but you need to factor in the mortgage repayments and interest of the house prices over the 30 years.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces 5%, say, and is €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years, not just the 20k drop in price. Now, you may be comfortable writing that extra 10k off over the course of 30 years, but the previous figure you gave with regards to breaking even isn't entirely accurate.

old_house

FVP3 wrote: »

Surely you are not advocating a free for all with no land zoning.

No, I'm most certainly not. I'm just saying that you can't just argue that the government creates value by permitting something and at the same ignore that it was the same government (figuratively) who outlawed the same thing earlier. I don't create value by stealing your bike and then giving it back.

FVP3 wrote: »

And of course government adds value, although any farmer and landowner is welcome to build their own roads and train-lines if they wish and can fund it. An unaccessible land would be worth nothing.

I'm not sure you are being serious here, but I will bite: "Who will build the roads?" is one of the most controversial libertarian topics and the function of the state is by no means as clear as it may seem to you. I will not digress here, but if this question really bothers you then you can find a lot of literature to give you food for thought.
And: basically all land was inaccessible at some point (and much is to this day), but does that really make it worthless?

FVP3 wrote: »

Whenever land was traded there was come kind of government or legal system guaranteeing legal ownership. Otherwise land wasn't traded it was taken by the guys with the biggest armies.

Yes, that is certainly true. But: over long periods of humanity it wasn't uncommon for governments to actively steal other peoples property (Germany and the jews come to mind), so government in itself is not a guarantee that you will not be robbed of your possessions. Secondly: A register of ownership that can not be altered or manipulated can be created without a central power structure. There are for instance blockchain-projects to allow small scale landowners in third-world countries to register their holdings in a safe and decentralized way and gain proof of their status. That alone doesn't protect you from nefarious activity by the state or otherwise, but at least such activity becomes transparent. See here: https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/blog/2018/Using-blockchain-to-make-land-registry-more-reliable-in-India.html

FVP3 wrote: »

It was removed ( by Noonan, natch), but isnt what we I am asking for. This isnt a land tax.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/government-to-axe-80-development-land-windfall-tax-1.1963043

Thanks, I didn't follow that. I remember now.

Summer2020

Summer2020 wrote: »

People thinking they’ll pick up a bargain are going to be disappointed I think. Two out of three properties I was bidding on previously have been taken down off the market. They can afford to sit it out and wait a few years rather than accept low ball offers of asking -10% or so.

For now, how long are they willing to wait. Many people will need to sell the pool of perspective buyers will be lower. Prices will drop.

A lot of people were in denial back in 08 too. Prices didn't bottom out for 3 or 4 years and I'm not sure they have ever reached 07 levels yet.

hometruths

Summer2020 wrote: »

People thinking they’ll pick up a bargain are going to be disappointed I think. Two out of three properties I was bidding on previously have been taken down off the market. They can afford to sit it out and wait a few years rather than accept low ball offers of asking -10% or so.

you've got to wonder what these peoples plans were for after they sold their house.

Presumably in most cases it is to buy another one.

And presumably in most cases if they think the sale price of their current house is going to fall, then surely they also think the purchase price of their new house will fall too.

Why sit it out and wait a few years if the net result will be broadly similiar? Seems counterintuitive.

And we have people on here saying demand won't be hit too badly because FTBers won't wait now because it is putting their life on hold, but supply will dry up because trader uppers/downers/relocators will put their life on hold.

Doesn't make any sense to me.

GreeBo

Knex. wrote: »

That's not a complete way of looking at it, I think? Might not make a massive difference, but you need to factor in the mortgage repayments and interest of the house prices over the 30 years.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces 5%, say, and is €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years, not just the 20k drop in price. Now, you may be comfortable writing that extra 10k off over the course of 30 years, but the previous figure you gave with regards to breaking even isn't entirely accurate.

but if you are including the mortgage repayments you also have to include the portion of the asset you now own.
e.g. 5 years of payments on a 25 year house, you effectively own 20% of the house. compared to owning nothing if still renting.

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

you've got to wonder what these peoples plans were for after they sold their house.

Presumably in most cases it is to buy another one.

And presumably in most cases if they think the sale price of their current house is going to fall, then surely they also think the purchase price of their new house will fall too.

Why sit it out and wait a few years if the net result will be broadly similiar? Seems counterintuitive.

And we have people on here saying demand won't be hit too badly because FTBers won't wait now because it is putting their life on hold, but supply will dry up because trader uppers/downers/relocators will put their life on hold.

Doesn't make any sense to me.

all things being equal (which they rarely are) a person trading up stands to save money but selling + buying now whereas someone trading down will lose more.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

you've got to wonder what these peoples plans were for after they sold their house.

Presumably in most cases it is to buy another one.

And presumably in most cases if they think the sale price of their current house is going to fall, then surely they also think the purchase price of their new house will fall too.

Why sit it out and wait a few years if the net result will be broadly similiar? Seems counterintuitive.

And we have people on here saying demand won't be hit too badly because FTBers won't wait now because it is putting their life on hold, but supply will dry up because trader uppers/downers/relocators will put their life on hold.

Doesn't make any sense to me.

Uncertainty in any industry makes people / companies pause and take stock. Whatever buying or selling strategy you might have for anything can’t have factored in a global pandemic.

smurgen

GreeBo wrote: »

but if you are including the mortgage repayments you also have to include the portion of the asset you now own.
e.g. 5 years of payments on a 25 year house, you effectively own 20% of the house. compared to owning nothing if still renting.

And if the asset continued to drop in value while your rent became cheaper?

GreeBo

schmittel wrote: »

Doesn't make any sense to me.

Everyone on here has their own financial situation thats unique to their circumstances. Every opinion is coloured by those circumstances, whether subconsciously or blatantly.

Some have spare cash and havent been impacted at all by COVID-19.
Some own their own homes outright.
Some own multiple properties outright.
Some are barely making ends meet on the property the bank owns.

Its all different and its all what drives the property market, making it much more complex than the stock market for example.

funtimes.

GreeBo

smurgen wrote: »

And if the asset continued to drop in value while you rent became cheaper?

Over the lifetime of the mortgage it wont drop (anywhere other than in Japan in 1980) and even if it did, you still own an asset at the end.

Unless you rent is a small fraction of your mortgage repayments you end up ahead if you bought rather than rented.

If you can afford to do either (buy or rent) then they only reason you would rent is flexibility or a belief that house prices are at an alltime high that will not be reached again in your lieftime.

JJJackal

Knex. wrote: »

That's not a complete way of looking at it, I think? Might not make a massive difference, but you need to factor in the mortgage repayments and interest of the house prices over the 30 years.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces 5%, say, and is €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years, not just the 20k drop in price. Now, you may be comfortable writing that extra 10k off over the course of 30 years, but the previous figure you gave with regards to breaking even isn't entirely accurate.

If you are renting you forgot to add in that cost. The rent on a 400,000 property at the moment is probably circ 1600 to 2000.

So thats about 19,000 to 24,000 per year. A realised price drop in the current market of 5% could take 1 year...

hometruths

GreeBo wrote: »

all things being equal (which they rarely are) a person trading up stands to save money but selling + buying now whereas someone trading down will lose more.

Hubertj wrote: »

Uncertainty in any industry makes people / companies pause and take stock. Whatever buying or selling strategy you might have for anything can’t have factored in a global pandemic.

I understand and agree with both of the above statements, and both make sense.

The bit I am struggling with is why would FTBers who don't have any equity built up be less price sensitive than the mover in GreeBos point?

And equally, neither cohort of buyers could have factored in the uncertainty of a global pandemic, but why would FTBers be more likely to carry on with it than the mover?

Edit to add - actually I guess the stress of completing two transactions in uncertainty rather than one might be the answer.

James 007

House prices are rising again. 7.5% in this case, its the pandemic effect taking place.

We will advertise it at this price to get our Jan asking price:P
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/drumcondra/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-2359898/

Sorry we under valued our property back then:o
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/could-this-be-the-perfect-match-for-395k-in-drumcondra-1.4138266

Any chance of this price drop please:rolleyes:
https://thepropertypin.com/t/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-9-150k-33/23600

Paulownia

We need green space as well so we can breathe, the Guinness family has done much for Dublin, would you take their property away now?

Dylan94

Just noticed that Barnhall meadows in Lexlip increased the price of their 4 bed houses by 10k. Less than a 3% rise, but thought it was a strange time for a developer to increase prices.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/barnhall-meadows-leixlip-co-kildare-4-bed-semi-detached/4380872

hardybuck

schmittel wrote: »

you've got to wonder what these peoples plans were for after they sold their house.

Presumably in most cases it is to buy another one.

And presumably in most cases if they think the sale price of their current house is going to fall, then surely they also think the purchase price of their new house will fall too.

Why sit it out and wait a few years if the net result will be broadly similiar? Seems counterintuitive.

And we have people on here saying demand won't be hit too badly because FTBers won't wait now because it is putting their life on hold, but supply will dry up because trader uppers/downers/relocators will put their life on hold.

Doesn't make any sense to me.

There are many people with properties they own outright that are just sitting tight for the right time to exit. They might be planning to use that to fund their retirement, nest egg for their kids, or they might just exit to any other form of investment opportunity.

There are plenty of people who are availing of cheap finance, very happy with their rent yield, and who can probably expect cheap finance for the next 3-5 years. They'll happily sit even if the rental market dips.

You also have a cohort of people going to sell sometime before end 2021 to benefit from capital gains exemptions. They'll also happily wait until next year to see how it goes.

mosii

Putting the price up,so to take it off soon. Maybe?

hardybuck

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

The place I am sale agreed on, they wouldn't give a 1k discount nevermind 10pc. They'd pull the sale immediately.

At the higher end of the market you can see 30% swings fairly regularly.

Padre_Pio

hardybuck wrote: »

There are many people with properties they own outright that are just sitting tight for the right time to exit. They might be planning to use that to fund their retirement, nest egg for their kids, or they might just exit to any other form of investment opportunity.

There are plenty of people who are availing of cheap finance, very happy with their rent yield, and who can probably expect cheap finance for the next 3-5 years. They'll happily sit even if the rental market dips.

You also have a cohort of people going to sell sometime before end 2021 to benefit from capital gains exemptions. They'll also happily wait until next year to see how it goes.

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.

hardybuck

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.

At the end of the day investment property should be viewed as a medium to long term investment, I wouldn't be panicking about a dip in something I expect to have over a good number of years.

In those years you had a lot of people having a go at property investment borrowing more than they could realistically afford. At least the revised mortgage lending rules put paid to that in recent years.

beauf

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And this is it.

Why do people expect such swings to manifest weeks into a crisis where it's impossible to sell a house?

The property lows after the 2008 crash were in 2010 and 2011.
If there is a significant drop, it could take years to show.

Because people can only see what they want to have happen. They selectively pick facts that suit the story they have in their head. They aren't looking at all the facts or the timelines or the bigger picture. Especially where it's doesn't suit.

beauf

Donald Trump wrote: »

Hi. That's lovely. But does not make my link incorrect.

One poster asked where there was land inside the M50.
Another responded pointing out the fields off Griffith Avenue at the back of DCU (and also the ones around the Archbishops house).
I added that there are fields used for agriculture in Castleknock. Owned by the some descendants of the Guinness family.

They are real. They are there. It's not a conspiracy. They are there whether there is smog or not. What you think should be done with them is an entirely different topic. Your preference one way or the other does make them not be there. It is not some kind of Scrodinger's "field" where they only exist when you measure or acknowledge them.

I was only answering the posters question as to examples of locations of such land.

My issues with this complaining about green land and let's build high density everywhere is that is very dated concept that was done in the past and proved to be a social disaster. Once you've created this concrete jungle it's very hard to come back from it. More modern urban planning is trying to get these green spaces back, and here we are trying to get rid of it and recreate a tribute in concrete to the 1970s.

If you are going to build high density do it properly not just randomly by picking locations that are unsuitable. Why point at green land that borders a protected amenity area and in a green belt that is unsuitable, when there is active planning (currently turned down) for 600+ apartments not a mile away.

The govt hasn't shown any interest in affordable or social housing for 20yrs plus.

beauf

Another 1200 here...

More than 1,200 new homes to be developed at site of Central Mental Hospital https://jrnl.ie/5082644

kevinc565

hardybuck wrote: »

At the higher end of the market you can see 30% swings fairly regularly.

You need to go above 1.5m to see that generally

JimmyVik

James 007 wrote: »

House prices are rising again. 7.5% in this case, its the pandemic effect taking place.

We will advertise it at this price to get our Jan asking price:P
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/drumcondra/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-2359898/

Sorry we under valued our property back then:o
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/could-this-be-the-perfect-match-for-395k-in-drumcondra-1.4138266

Any chance of this price drop please:rolleyes:
https://thepropertypin.com/t/9-fitzroy-avenue-drumcondra-dublin-9-150k-33/23600

Is that table in the living room supposed to be round?

lomb

Hubertj wrote: »

can you flesh this out a bit as i don't follow so don't know if i agree or disagree.

I understand that property can be cheaper than the rebuild cost but why does that mean land has 0 value?

Im buying a house (agreed just before Corona )

I'm paying 100 less than rebuild if I valued land and planning at 100k then I'm paying 200k less
I didn't reneg as in my opinion its fully depreciated despite what any gimp thinks. Obviously older building standards hence some difference but this explains it better

https://fora.ie/cost-of-an-apartment-in-dublin-building-3660640-Oct2017/

Also I watched this on utube . She's 24 and taken a mortgage for 4400 a month. I know it's Seattle with better jobs and lower taxes but still 4400 a month every month for 30 years. I'll have a 25 year year at less than half that and Im v happy.
Look up Monica Church mortgage

Empty_Space

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

GreeBo

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Zenify

GreeBo wrote: »

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Do you not sleep?

Empty_Space

GreeBo wrote: »

I can honestly say that I cannot refute a single one of the facts you have presented...

Do sure, but Im not going to argue with you.
I have learned its a pointless exercise to argue with someone on something that is so obvious.
One can always find arguments to convince themselves of the illogical.

Pablo_Flox

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

Can you look into the crystal ball you have and tell us what the supply of houses to the market will be like at these new "unprecedented drops" in price? Do you predict builders will start new projects to break even? Do you think families in negative equity will sell and just eat the loss? Or do you think maybe supply will be piss-poor and only people forced to sell (mainly bank repossessions and estate sales).

Im my opinion if you are in the market for an old fixer upper to flip and don't care too much about location then maybe wait. If you want an A or B rated family house that you are going to stay in for 10+ years then buy when it suits and don't worry about temp drops in the market. You are taking a huge risk that suitable houses will be for sale at the bottom of the price curve.

Cyrus

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

you do understand that for this to happen people have to sell, who is going to sell in this scenario?

seasidedub

I'd agree with posters who say there won't be a huge price drop in the immediate future - it did take until 2011 after the previous crash for houses to bottom out. More likely that the market stagnates and fewer interesting properties available. High end apartments are not selling well, so possible reductions there, but otherwise stagnating market is my guess.

I just closed with pre-covid price locked in, now renting, but won't hang about, will buy asap as am paying 2k a month rent.

lomb

Somewhere like California you could make alot of money now with the uncertanty. Buy some fixer upper for 400, fix up over next 3 months for 50, flip for 600. Sadly neither the tax situation works here on rolling over the profits to the next flip ,the lending institutions are run by socialist gombeens policied by a judiciary who won't evict anyone for not paying their mortgage, and the price differentials here between wrecks and good ones isn't subatansial enough.

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

Let me just end the illogical debate on what will happen to house prices.
House prices are going down, and down fast at unprecedented percentage drops.

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008. This is much much worse. Corona virus is only part of the picture, this has been on the cards.

Now stop the silly talk about supply.

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

Pablo_Flox

Empty_Space wrote: »

This isn't a normal downturn, like that in 2008.

This quote tells me everything I need to know. Anyone who describes 2008 as a normal downturn doesn't know their arse from their elbow.

AmberGold

Will be a hard job getting this away for the asking;

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/living-next-door-to-dermot-bannon-family-home-with-reclaimed-marble-church-arches-on-the-same-street-as-room-to-improve-star-39152417.html

Empty_Space

Hubertj wrote: »

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

Padre_Pio

Hubertj wrote: »

can you elaborate on that? Is it because the onset of recession has been so fast and the recovery is estimated to be "relatively" quick with decent growth in 2021 and 2022? So prices bottom out quicker?

What recovery?

This thread is turning into the stock market thread, with all sorts of wild predictions.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Empty_Space

Pablo_Flox wrote: »

This quote tells me everything I need to know. Anyone who describes 2008 as a normal downturn doesn't know their arse from their elbow.

Your'e thinking is constrained by the short term thinking dictated by your human life span.
2008 was a recession. This will be a depression that far exceeds even previous depressions due to our massive populations and financial cheating that has gone on for decades.

JimmyVik

Empty_Space wrote: »

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Padre_Pio

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

You should have sold in early 2008.
You should have bought in early 2012.

I'll update you on the latest figures in a few years. Anything else is fortune telling.

coolshannagh28

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Peak was mid 2019 , bottom could be 2022 .

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

The recession hasnt even started. And its not a recession, it will be a depression.
Will only begin once corona stuff settles down a bit.

It could last 10 years. The stock market has had a bounce back fueled by greed.
But soon it will take a real fall and then everything else will go with it.

dear oh dear. are you another 1 of those bull and bear sensationalists? Or have you been talking to 1?

Empty_Space

JimmyVik wrote: »

When should I sell and when should I buy?
Asking for a friend.

Well obviously sell everything now.

Then you shouldnt be thinking of when to buy, but what to buy. And I dont mean what stocks.

Empty_Space

Hubertj wrote: »

dear oh dear. are you another 1 of those bull and bear to*sers? Or have you been talking to 1?

Once you called me a to*ser. You lost all credibility.